CheeselandSkies

100%.

You're in De Pere now? No more Columbus?

Can it not be the same temperature on September 10th, Christmas Day, and May 10th, 2021 plz? K thx.

Man whatever happened to La Nina? I thought it was supposed to bring us the best winters. *Coughcough 2011-12 cough* I'll just show myself out...

@andyhb, do you believe early spring 2021 will be similar to or perhaps even more violent than early spring 2020 (the Easter outbreak and I believe another one close to that timeframe)? Will that translate into a similarly lackluster chase season for the Plains/Midwest, or is it impossible to make that connection at this point?

There's one year in my childhood that sticks out to me as being similar to this one in having an abrupt flip to an extended period of chilly, drizzly, dreary weather in early September. It would have to have been sometime in the 1990s, I distinctly remember having just started school one year and waiting for the bus shivering in a hoodie for several days. Can anyone think what year that could have been?

Just thought I'd chime in with an update on my fiancee and I. We are both pretty well recovered. I had an occasional dry cough and near-total loss of taste and smell that persisted for about two weeks, but otherwise felt mostly fine except for one day where I felt not even really sick, just kind of "bleh." If I had somehow not been aware of the pandemic, I would have thought nothing about continuing to go to work. My fiancee's case was certainly much worse than mine but far from among the worst. She had a few days where she barely had the energy to move, eat or drink. She actually had become severely dehydrated by the time I took her to the hospital because as she said, "it hurt to drink water." A chest X-ray found she did have pneumonia in both lungs, but she never had severe respiratory distress (thankfully). She also reported some GI issues. Her cough was more intense than mine, but really only showed up when she laid down (and made it impossible for both of us to sleep). In our experience and in descriptions from others I've read, the COVID cough has a distinctive "barking" quality to it as you reflexively try to suck air in after each one. People who are having severe cases/going into respiratory distress reportedly can barely get a sentence out between fits. It took her about a week after coming home from the hospital before she got her appetite back, and she still gets winded more easily than before when we go for walks.

Yet Plains chasers aren't optimistic, as the general consensus seems to be that La Nina leads to drought and excessive capping for their region. It seems to be a mixed bag for here in the upper Midwest. We can get very active years like 2008 where there was pretty much sustained severe weather and tornado activity from the 4th week of May through the first two weeks of June. However every year after 2015 has pretty much been a total dud in this region, apart from sneaky overachieving events on low-key risk days at random times of the year (the latest being the 8/10 derecho).

If it were El Nino the Pac would be going crazy...I've been counseling patience the last few weeks but even I have to start wondering now...where are the stadiums (apart from Laura's last few hours)?

Plains chasers are used to it, as I said earlier it's usually the opposite problem in this neck of the woods because of our distance from the EML source region. Maddening, especially this year.

Clouds have come back in force this afternoon.

Hard to say. On a synoptic level, this is a pretty decent setup at least for southern WI. The big question mark though is whether that cap can be broken, especially before dark. Almost has the feel of many a springtime Plains setup in that regard. The annoying thing is, in most springtime setups in this area the problem is not enough cap to prevent early/messy initiation. Edit: 16Z HRRR says no joy except some mess across western lower Michigan. Local soundings are solidly capped.

15.4 degrees C at Omaha according to SPC and that will be advecting into the risk area on southwesterly winds at that layer. It represents a quite strong cap which is why @hlcater is not enthusiastic about this setup.

Not super pumped with those 700mb temps but definitely worth keeping an eye on things locally this afternoon/evening.

Yep, some nice boomers this morning. Probably the best all warm season, just in time for it to end. Vis sat shows much of IA and SW WI clearing nicely. Clearing line should be passing us here shortly.

Well, you were the guy who scored Kalona (ONLY storm that day that sustained long enough to do that) and Iowa is notorious for stupid things like that. Probably not worth the drive for me from Madison, though with work at 3AM Monday.

Lacking the visible inversion there and 0 on the SBCINH. SRH and lapse rates look good, perhaps the best I've seen in this region this whole lousy year. Low level winds look weak and veered, but the winds veer further and increase nicely in the 850-700mb layer. What is the significance of the temperature and dewpoint coming together (100% RH) just below 850mb?

g0oOFus is proving worthless for predicting Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis >48 hours out this year. Euro hasn't been much better but at least it's trying. Also, GFS actually does show systems. I refer you to: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2849976#p2849976

How does the one in the Gulf not landfall??

@hlcater, where and when are those forecast soundings valid for? Off what model?

@ldub23 this season. TBH I'm starting to get there, too and so are some others based on the state of the season thread lately.

Maybe super-compact intense hurricanes like Andrew and Charley had similar pressure drops in their cores.

Fascinating to think how tropical cyclones in one basin could influence the eventual track of others 180 degrees around the planet. They just seem too far away for that to be possible, but it happens.

So in other words, they are "upgrading" the GFS again just a year after the FV3 became operational?