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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    ...which by and large has meant nada this season.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    Collapses and stalls just offshore FL. The models/runs that get stronger seem pretty intent on this kind of scenario. You'd think a solid hurricane on a NE track in November wouldn't just come to a screeching halt.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    Blue box out, doesn't extend north of the WI/IL border though. Been overcast with sprinkles all morning, honestly thought we'd be trimmed out of the slight risk at 1630.
  4. CheeselandSkies
    Which is where (no location given on your profile)? There are no tornado warnings currently in effect anywhere in the CONUS.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    LOL, some people on another forum were insisting the Gulf coast was now safe from hurricanes for the rest of the season because some cold fronts had come through back in late September or so. We saw how that worked out.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    I think what galls me the most is even early on, when this pandemic was causing the equivalent of a Hurricane Katrina or 9/11 in this country every couple of days, some people just decided that it wasn't that big a deal, masks be damned.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    I mean, it's one thing to make a legitimate attempt to forecast and bust, it's another thing to repeatedly make blanket statements based on the fantasy range of the deterministic GFS runs.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Some of the good, the bad and the ugly regarding the Pfizer announcement: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/09/fine-print-on-preliminary-coronavirus-vaccine-results/
  9. CheeselandSkies
    Frame this and put it in the "Weather Forum Posts That Aged Horribly" Hall of Fame right alongside the one he made about September 2017 being quiet. Speaking of ldub, he hasn't popped into this thread in awhile...
  10. CheeselandSkies
    I'm almost 35 and he's been hosting the show longer than I've been alive.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    No... Foremost experts are the NHC and they have it as a tropical storm to minimal hurricane for at least the next five days. INIT 08/2100Z 23.9N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 24.7N 81.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 24.6N 83.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 23.6N 84.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 24.0N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 25.1N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 25.8N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 27.1N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 29.0N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
  12. CheeselandSkies
    I would be delighted to be proven wrong, but I'm just not seeing anything to pique my interest 4 days out.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    Not happening. Instability will be too weak on Tuesday. 2013 this ain't.
  14. CheeselandSkies
  15. CheeselandSkies
    Could do it tomorrow and over the weekend, too.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    Right now looking like no 11/10/02 or 11/17/13 or even those couple days in Nov. 2005. Instability expected to be lacking.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    I've forgotten when was the last time I even looked at the models for anything other than tropical cyclones.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Mitch was down to a 1 by landfall, though. It was all rainfall-induced landslides.
  19. CheeselandSkies
  20. CheeselandSkies
    https://youtu.be/XVPE7I0I7X4?t=13
  21. CheeselandSkies
    Nope. These Greek cyclones have been a whole 'nother season in and of themselves (apart from Laura, Sally and Teddy). Trend of heavily west-loaded/close-to-land intensification holds with Eta, but it's finally producing the kind of jaw-dropping satellite porn I expected out of this season...in Sept./early Oct. Kinda annoying that the WPAC snuck in Goni first, though. In the end, forecasts of extreme activity in the Atlantic were spot-on, even though it didn't play out in quite the fashion most observers, experts and amateurs alike, anticipated.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    Mother of all weenie runs from GFS/GFS-Para and Euro over the last few cycles...and the mother of all weenie satellite images ongoing ATTM. Only took 28 tries and the month of November, but the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is finally doing what we all thought it would.
  23. CheeselandSkies
    Recon right now (disabled embedding because otherwise the link won't start at the time I want): https://youtu.be/M9Yww9LG3gw?t=234
  24. CheeselandSkies
    Well son of a *****, that was dumb.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    I highly doubt they ever reduced the peak intensity. Maybe one of those cases where it wasn't explicitly shown because it would occur between 12-hour forecast points.
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