CheeselandSkies

Unlike @StormchaserChuck!, they are not calling for an El Nino. Weak Nina to neutral at the most.

Yes, all of this. Coming out of work at 12:30 this afternoon it felt very much like an early spring (yes, believe it or not it is still quite early for us) day should feel. 80s is too warm, and anything where you're talking about snow is too cold at this point (in my opinion, anyway). I find it slightly irksome that we're now in this climate pattern where you can get mid-70s or warmer at this latitude in early April and not "pay" for it in the form of a outbreak.

If this cell cycles up again and threatens to produce; it's going to do it right in the worst of the radar hole equidistant from POE, DGX, LIX and LCH. How typical.

Looks like a couple of abortive cycles now but this last one got real close to a significant near Mansura.

Forming north of here and moving north.

Band arcing NE toward the QC looks to be running out of gas, too. @cyclone77 might at least see some downpours and rumbles out of it but we in southern WI will be lucky to get even that. What else is new?

Down to Slight on the 01Z update.

Possible tornado near Galion/Bonita, LA was earlier reported radar confirmed, although the latest warning statement downgrades to the standard "radar indicated rotation" it still shows as a TORR on GR Level 3. Cell down near Fort Polk, although only severe-warned at the moment, is fairly robust, discrete and might have the best chance of anything yet today.

Yep, AR activity has mostly remained anemic and disorganized. Not enough heating/more capping than anticipated?

I recall a brief thunder-shower around 9 AM yesterday, but that's it in Madison. Green/Rock/Walworth counties got the small but vigorous lightning producer before dawn Monday. Earlier showers crapped the bed as they moved into southern Wisconsin, but west of here might have gotten a bit. Also svr wind report earlier from Ixonia in Jefferson Co. @Geoboy645, see anything? Marginal expanded north to IL/WI border (the brick wall of storms). Activity moving north toward the QC looks more vigorous than anything in the Enhanced risk area, lol. (Edit: Except the tornado-warned cell in northern LA)

Yeah, it's annoying but it's still early for us and at least it's nice out. The worst (which we seem to have seen a lot in recent years) is when a winter pattern decides to show up right around the spring equinox and persist for most of April. As posted elsewhere, any upcoming cool-down looks to be to near/slightly below normal rather than much below.

There was a pretty rockin' stretch from late January through the first three weeks or so of February this year. 2007-'08 is still my favorite winter though, despite the occasional torches/thaws. My interests definitely lean toward the "sustained storminess" rather than the "sustained cold/snowpack" column. I was going to UW-Green Bay at the time but spent the long winter break with my parents in Stoughton.

Not even close (yet). Morch 2012 was to monthly temperature anomalies what April 27, 2011 was to tornado outbreaks; and it set the theme for the rest of that spring and summer. We also had no appreciable snowpack throughout that entire winter, while we had a solid one throughout February this year although the late month thaw steadily gobbled it up by the first few days of March.

Captured some pretty good lightning with one of our skycams at work this morning. Our meteorologist on duty put some of the highlights on Facebook: https://fb.watch/4GOJAuYVat/

My bleeding hands feel every bit of it. Cannot wait for things to moisten up a bit.

Well, aren't you just a little ray of sunshine?

The OG of Morch.

Same.

But the important thing is, you suck it up and do it because it's the right thing to do at this moment in history. I don't know anybody who's exactly enamored with them.

Fair enough...again, better now than May!

More on the subject of NOAA's IT infrastructure issues: https://earther.gizmodo.com/the-national-weather-service-s-digital-infrastructure-i-1846584558

As more data comes in, the evidence is leaning more toward that not being the case. The CDC was and is urging caution because not much was known about this aspect. I wouldn't be surprised to see that guidance change soon, especially if more evidence continues to come in supporting efficacy against the major variants of concern.

Yeah, and like I said while an ugly look it's well out into fantasy range (and even if it does have the right idea, better April than May). Currently more focused on trying to suss out any potential with next week's system.

Seemed to be happening until like April 20th in 2018.

GFS continues to suggest decent thunderstorm chances for portions of the sub at times next week with 60s dews getting into southern WI/possibly far SE MN in the warm sector of a deep low over central/northern MN. Soundings look kind of muddled for severe/ potential, but at this range I'd be worried if they looked perfect now. 06Z run had an ugly eastern US stalled upper low/ Omega block developing later in the run, but that was waaaaaaaaay into fantasy range and even if it does happen, better now than May (or June).