CheeselandSkies

Fresh from busting hard in KS, staying the night in DDC which seemed like a good jumping off point for tomorrow but now that looks to be trending down as well. Yet another sign I should just give up this f***ing hobby. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Heading out this afternoon, target for tomorrow still somewhat up in the air. Either south-central NE or western KS. Then I'll be in position for Thursday's action, as well.

Could possibly expand this to include Wednesday, as well. The two days might be a fairly noteworthy event all told. Friday and the weekend are still rather nebulous, a few GFS runs depicted potential huge days in that timeframe (like Plains-wide 3KM EHI ≥10) but it seems to have backed off on that.

Yeah, I have this week off and am looking into Wednesday as a chase day, and possibly Thursday-Friday. GFS has been very up and down on the weekend, and my fiancee would rather I not be gone that long.

Spring, henceforth known as "the season I used to look forward to because of its active weather."

Some thunder, please. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Felt a little woozy overnight but good for now. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

2nd shot of Moderna today. 6.5 hours in, slightly stiff upper arm where the injection was done but nowhere near as sore as the first time. First one was as bad or worse than a tetanus shot.

Such a stark divide between the haves and the have nots. You expect this with snow, but geez. So far this "wet" period hasn't done as much to chip away at our deficit as I'd hoped. We need a big booming MCS that pours and roars for an hour or so.

GFS shows some potential events next week but they're generally much more localized and a lot farther west than depicted above.

For MBY (2~ish hours from you) MKX has chances through Friday, then again from Sunday through the end of the 7-day. Although it rained decently from yesterday afternoon through this morning, we have yet to see a real, sustained downpour here in 2021, and I haven't even heard thunder yet this year. Wouldn't have seen lightning either if not for some distant, isolated thunderstorms that were going while I was driving in to work one night the first week of April.

I think SPC mentioned it in yesterday's DY4-8 but they kind of removed the reference today, and the DY3 Marginal is nowhere close.

TBH it looks like a pretty classic West Texas dryline setup. Not sure why tornado probabilities aren't higher/hatched. High-ish cloud bases due to expected hot temperatures, perhaps?

Check with India, see how that's going for them.

Yes, we finally get the moisture up here. Only problem is, it's May; where's the ****ing 500mb shear? @andyhb posted back in Feb that the long range climate models were showing something like this happening. I wanted to believe that they couldn't possibly be right at that range. Welp.

Hail-driven though, tornado probabilities remain at a seasonably meh 5%.

I remember there being some concern that the Western drought would expand throughout the Plains this spring. Thankfully that doesn't seem to be the case. Upper Midwest has seen significant improvement of late, but we here in southern WI are still running a pretty substantial rainfall deficit for the year, and southern Lower MI is even worse.

At least you're getting storms...

Polar opposite severe weather activity between the bolded and unbolded pairs. I'm pretty sure ENSO is useless as a predictor.

IIRC they don't recommend getting vaccinated so soon after natural infection, since immunity from that will last for a few months at least. Wishing you both a speedy/uncomplicated recovery.

Sounds like the Euro is just as bad, though.

I was only 9 but I remember the summer of '95 being quite stormy in this neck of the woods. I also remember sleeping in the living room a lot because my room upstairs was too stifling. We had an older house with one window A/C unit in the living room downstairs and one in my parents' room upstairs, which they didn't like to use because the wiring up there wasn't upgraded (two two-hole outlets in their room, one in each of the other two bedrooms). Ofc, that was already a much better chase season than this with several events in April and May, then the famous early June TX Panhandle outbreaks.

This ain't your grandaddy's G(oo)F(u)S...or (King) Euro, for that matter.

...and there will be one run of one CAM that will show it the night before, and SPC will have a Marginal or at most Slight risk on the initial Day 1 outlook covering the soon-to-be devastated area.

I guess we'll see if the AA precip forecast A.) verifies and B.) translates into increased severe weather activity for the Plains (north of Texas) and Midwest. Much of the upper Midwest is still abnormally dry.