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CheeselandSkies

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  1. CheeselandSkies
    Several warnings ongoing in far SE MN and across that belt of Wisconsin from just north of La Crosse to just south of Green Bay that has seen just about all the action so far this spring. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0476.html
  2. CheeselandSkies
    There we have it on the Day 2 update. Slight goes to about the I-80 corridor, marginal with 2% tornado to the WI/IL border. Confoundingly, the 12Z 3KM NAM is much less impressive with the environment over E IA/N IL tomorrow evening than is its coarser cousin. The latter makes it look like a definite local chase day with a nice little 996MB mesolow over eastern IA. The 3K, not so much.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    Enhanced upgrade up for wind in KS. Was expecting it moreso in the Lower MS Valley risk area.
  4. CheeselandSkies
    Chase mode activated.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Yep. 3KM NAM hardly breaks out anything over the "prime" risk area but plenty of storms over the upper Midwest. HRRR concurs but is more robust with development in the current Slight/hatched area as well.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    Those are pretty high CAPE values for 06Z (1 AM CDT), but not entirely unexpected that there would be a capping layer at that time of night.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    Sure would have been nice if it came with some Gulf moisture and storm chances.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Dust blowing around like Oklahoma in the 1930s out there today.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    Seems like it's a given there every spring. Plains/MW not so much. * I will say, awfully nice to come on here and see five weather threads above "Coronavirus."
  10. CheeselandSkies
    We'll see how things look in a month, but would have been nice if things would have gotten going a bit earlier.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    Well, these last few days have saved it from being totally pathetic, but this April will still come in at only a little over 1/3 of average for tornado count, and just two EF3+ with this one added.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    Little popcorn showers lighting up across southern WI now. Wasn't really expecting anything today. They're small, scattered and brief but at this point we need every drop we can get.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    Except the early week storms in Wisconsin missed here to the north.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Never confirmed by radar (TDS) or spotters. IMO that wording shouldn't be used unless it is (confirmed). Edit: Looked like there might have been a TDS there at 0224 and 0226 UTC, but the warning statement didn't include that. They said "radar indicated rotation" instead of "radar confirmed tornado."
  15. CheeselandSkies
    The header says March?
  16. CheeselandSkies
    48 in Milwaukee rn, so glad I no longer live there.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    IMO it should look and feel outside like it does here rn every day from now until the summer solstice.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Oh, believe me, that is happening.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    Seems to be the default mode now. How bogus is it that we have a warm front draped across southern Wisconsin in late April, we're expected to nearly hit 80, and we don't have a substantial threat? My lifelong interest in following the weather is rapidly dwindling.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    Like last Friday, should be a good day for the OK/TX-based chasers to get out and maybe (long shot) luck out with a storm like that Quanah/Lockett one. Not really worth traveling from outside the area, especially since it's looking like a one-and-done as opposed to a sequence of chase days (might be something somewhere Wednesday but details are looking very nebulous at this point).
  21. CheeselandSkies
    12Z 3KM NAM has a nice fantasy warm front rider in northern Illinois Wednesday afternoon.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    I've heard rumblings just a few days ago of the MJO going through a favorable progression for CONUS severe weather. Is this no longer expected to happen, or are there other factors at play that are expected to negate its impact?
  23. CheeselandSkies
    Not quite sure how most local mets (MKX/broadcast) along with SPC are totally dismissing severe potential into the upper Midwest region Tuesday afternoon/evening with forecast soundings like this:
  24. CheeselandSkies
    NAM isn't real impressive for Tuesday afternoon/evening. Has pretty much zero instability over the area where SPC has the threat outlined.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    Tuesday evening is within NAM range now, it joins how the GFS has been for quite a while with this system in portraying not much CAPE despite a broad warm/moist sector. Ironically it likewise shows one of the more unstable areas being over MBY, while the local forecast office and broadcast mets have not sounded impressed on severe potential around here.
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