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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    Would be nice to see the NAM slow that front down for Friday, still, about 1500 j/kg MLCAPE progged at 12Z on the latest run. Even trips a PDS TOR sounding (although contaminated).
  2. CheeselandSkies
    12Z NAM @ HR60 says HELLO!
  3. CheeselandSkies
    I just realized yesterday was six years to the day from my 2015 chase in almost the exact same area of Iowa...didn't produce any visible tornadoes but did likewise produce a gorgeous sunset-lit mammatus display that is still my avatar pic (mainly because I haven't seen anything better since).
  4. CheeselandSkies
    Attention now turns to late this week. SPC: Will these days provide any quality chase setups in the form of discrete supercells producing visible in the 22-01Z timeframe? Given the way this year has gone, the smart money is on "fat chance" but I haven't really looked at any model data yet. Probably still too early for it to be of much help pinning down things like storm mode/timing, anyway.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    I chased the 15 hatched in Lie-owa that day and it was completely pointless, zilch in the way of visible, supercell tornadoes*, so comparisons to that day made me go "HELL no!". *Of course, a week later there was a gorgeous tornado near Traer without a watch even being in effect.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    Ugh. I had all but written this event off for sig potential due to lack of afternoon recovery. Why do they have to happen at night, from a QLCS, in a city?
  7. CheeselandSkies
    Storm looks to have lined out. Another tornado warning is east of Sigourney or near West Chester. Edit: New one near Fort Madison in far SE IA, actually looks decent on radar, at least reflectivity at 7,200' up. MKX has issued a SVR for Rock County, WI for a storm moving northeast out of Illinois.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Dang, was not expecting a warned cell there. Had written this day off per my earlier post. That said it looks fairly messy/HP on radar.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    Insufficient recovery between rounds for WI/N IL/E IA...as I suspected. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  10. CheeselandSkies
    Easy no-chase decision for me, then. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  11. CheeselandSkies
    SPC:
  12. CheeselandSkies
    That's something I've been concerned about, since my fiancee will eventually need a kidney transplant...due to COVID giving her kidney failure.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    Well we have our answer, ENH out for 30% unhatched wind stretching from SE IA to N IN/SW lwr. MI. Tornado outlook remains a fairly large 5% area, in reality the majority of it will probably see no tornadoes while there is a focused tornado threat near the track of the MCV. The broad zone is just to account for margin of error. My chasing range will be limited since I will be visiting my parents for Father's Day.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    LOL
  15. CheeselandSkies
    Complex really appears to finally be firing up in SE MN, going to ride the MS to La Crosse. Madison looks to be in the crosshairs around 05-06Z, so perhaps HRRR was right after all.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    01Z SPC outlooked maintained ENH risk for sig wind for southern WI/northwest IL, even though there's only one warned cell in the complex near La Crosse right now and we're still not yet under a watch. They really could have dropped the 5% tornado. *Edit: Watch finally out.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    Ofc best-looking supercell of the day (radar-wise) is riding the MS River. This is why I rarely bother to chase regionally.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Decent looking supercell west of Wabasha, MN, probably will just be a hailer for the time being. Looks like the SE-moving complex may be beginning to take shape between the Twin Cities and La Crosse. If that's the case, it may be through here several hours earlier than the HRRR has been consistently indicating.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    88/59 at Madison at 5 PM...just stepped outside and it actually felt a little muggy, although it has become overcast*. Not that I ever really had high expectations for today as far as chaseworthiness, but definitely not a T/Td spread that screams *Radar actually shows a line of weaksauce showers already formed and about to pass over us. HRRR says to expect main line around 2 AM-3 AM CDT or exactly when I will be commuting to work.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    One thing I don't quite understand is that the HRRR soundings for MBY are all capped overnight with "none" in the hazard box, yet it still shows the storms moving through here.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    Or coming south from WI...latest HRRR shows hardly anything forming in IA through 05Z tonight.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    Latest HRRR has one complex forming in northwest Iowa moving east and one in northern/central Wisconsin moving south, which is depicted still north of me by 05Z tonight.
  23. CheeselandSkies
    Dewpoint of 38 on the 5AM ob at Madison. Going to need very rapid moisture advection for any severe weather threat. This time of year at this latitude I like to see something like 70/66 the night before an expected severe weather day, but it's 2021 so I suppose we have to take what we can get.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    There is truly a sense of wonderment about it.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    I'll take the 6Z 3KM NAM over the 00Z, please. Suggests 2 rounds of storms Thursday evening/night for SW/SC WI as well as parts of IA and northern IL. * Only caveat being that it shows it coming through the Madison area around the time I would be commuting into work. Edit: 12Z shafts Dane Co. again.
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