CheeselandSkies

Enhanced risk coming for parts of east Texas.

Was fairly common before 2015 or so. May 4-10, 2003 had four, so did May 22-30, 2004 and three between May 22 and June 5, 2008. In fact, 4-6 per year was the general expectation from the 1990s through the early 2010s (2010 had six including one in October, 2011 had five including back-to-back on April 26-27); except in real dud years like 2000 and 2009. Then dud years started becoming the rule rather than the exception.

Thursday's gonna be another one of those "respect the polygon" days...

Not really impressed with the rain so far. Was expecting a good downpour at some point today. Haven't really had that (at no point have I been able to hear the rain coming down from inside).

"WOOO-HOOOO! HEY YOU GUYS! WOOO-HOOOOO!"

When the NAM has PDS TOR forecast soundings with jaw-dropping hodographs (and 5/4/2003 analogs) up the wazoo and it's one of the more subdued solutions...

Leaving the store this evening the air had that smell of impending rain.

Is anybody really surprised?

The LLJ problem is why I was skeptical of the high risk until the overnight models Tuesday into last Wednesday (when it seemed like less of an issue, at least according to the CAMs) and the 45% "let's tie the 4/27/11 probs over the exact same area" always seemed like an odd choice to me.

Good thing is it's the fantasy range GFS, and it kinda flies in the face of the nationwide torchy pattern being predicted by the climate models for April, right?

I sat in Forreston (near top center of the map) for awhile that afternoon, then felt like the atmosphere was taking too long to recover from the pre-warm frontal clouds and showers, plus generally low expectations for an early April setup that far north (3/15/16 and 2/28/17 had yet to occur, lol); turned around and went home, arriving just in time to pull up GR Level 3 and watch the debris ball track ~20 some miles from where I'd just been. If I'd stuck it out for just another 20-30 minutes I probably would have clued in on the rapid changes taking place in the lower atmosphere (or if I'd had access to mobile data on the road, which I wouldn't until I jumped on the smartphone bandwagon in 2017). What is it with May and June being dead in this region after 2016 (apart from 2019, which while the results weren't spectacular there were at least opportunities); with our regional chase "season" consisting of one day way closer to the cold season than seems right (2/28/17 and 12/1/18 being particularly egregious, also 3/28/20 which busted anyway compared to its ceiling) and one random day in the mid-late summer (7/19/18, 8/10/20)?

Maybe worth it if you're (very) local, not so much if you have a 3-4 hour drive to and from the target area and work at 3 AM the next day (like me). I really need more clear-cut setups unless they're literally right in MBY, and those have been in short supply in this region these last several years. Of course, the atmosphere tried to gift me Rochelle day in 2015 and I managed to screw that up, too.

Yeah, this does not sound anywhere near a 12/1/18 potential. That was a sneaky day but I don't think THIS sneaky...the area of interest was at least in a marginal risk for the Day 2.

Day 2 marginal introduced...for the far southern MS valley, lol.

SPC has been surprisingly bearish to this point, but if I recall correctly a few days ago the models were showing the warm sector barely making it onshore the Gulf Coast?

Problem is it's a "giant ridge pushing the jet stream up to Nunavut" AA signal rather than from being in the warm sectors of SLPs with thunder and .

Fortunately it looks to break for the weekend, at least here in southern Wisconsin.

Just like Tuscaloosa south of about University Blvd. to the western/northern suburbs of Birmingham, or the Moore/Norman/Newcastle area of central Oklahoma.

I was noticing on the live shots and skycams how green it already is getting in Alabama. Jelly.

The next round is firing up now over western MS. They have a lot of energy yet to work with.

Dorian was from '19.

That first trough he posted looks kinda sexy. Nice negative tilt with the left exit region nosing into west-central IL (kinda similar to 3/15/16 in that regard, actually).

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point within the area outlined by the contour (or technically, to the right of the contour line, which is actually drawn as an arrow chasing its tail).

Lots of cloud breaks and some areas with full sun across MS this morning.

I would have agreed with this until the overnight CAM runs and now this morning's observed soundings; both painting an increasingly ominous picture.