CheeselandSkies

It's at the end of its run and as @Chicago Storm said, it's an inherently low predictability setup, but... 12Z NAM STP/EHI for Monday afternoon evening...yes please.

MKX's afternoon AFD... So they seem to agree with SPC's thinking over the last few days of the possibility for two rounds in the Sun-Tue period. July/August picking up the slack for May/June, at least for some parts of the sub.

Starting to delve into the timeframe of interest... 18Z GFS suggests the possibility of another large MCS riding the instability gradient into WI Sunday night/early Monday. That shortwave brings 500mb westerlies near 50kt. Not too shabby for August.

Interestingly, positive PDO was attributed as a main reason some of the tornado seasons in the early-mid 2010s were rather lackluster. Now we have a negative PDO but this A/M/J was similarly quiescent in the Plains/Midwest. Thoughts @andyhb?

Still hinting at it... Personally I haven't yet looked at any model output for this time frame.

Next one, or two may be on the "radar," so to speak:

Update: MKX surveyed four EF0-1 paths from Cross Plains to Verona from 12:39-12:57 AM Thursday. They call it four tornadoes (I probably would call it one with an intermittent/multivortex structure, not unlike the Shell Rock-Waverly, IA one from 7/14). Tornado warning never issued on this cell despite couplet and rather obvious embedded supercell reflectivity structure, thus never received WEA. Wouldn't have woken up (except perhaps by thunder) if not for Madison deciding to blow the sirens. By the time this happened, the tornado(es) had already passed to my west and the Verona tornado was in progress to my south and a few minutes from lifting. Between that and being on the aforementioned Shell Rock/Waverly storm, although as usual blowing a great opportunity to get much better shots of the tornado, July was pretty rockin' for me. Goosebumps Girls' pleas were heard.

Yikes, yeah MN and north-central IA are getting bad while WI, northern IL and eastern IA have improved.

It's called July. Edit: Make that July with a suppressive MJO for the Atlantic.

Must have all moved south with the storms. Never noticed it particularly bad this year, until yesterday. We've had a long stretch of those red dot sunrises/sunsets, but at least the sky has been blue until then. Worst smoke haze I've ever seen is still May 20, 2019 in Oklahoma. I couldn't see the updraft tower/base of the Mangum supercell when it was less than 5 miles away.

Looks like it should be sunny but the sky is milky white. I think this is the worst I've seen it so far this year.

Business end of a pretty obvious embedded supercell missed me just to the southwest.

MKX confirms EF1 in Jefferson and EF0 in Waukesha County.

Reviewing our overnight coverage at work, there was a blatant TDS just southwest of Watertown around 1:05-1:10 AM. Event certainly did not bust on the whole, and in fact overachieved a bit vs. early day expectations in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, but I expected a denser concentration of wind reports further north (basically a solid blue NNW-SSE streak across WI) and more sig wind reports.

Was woken up by the sirens - there's one just outside our apartment building - just before 1 AM (or 1 hour 15 minutes before my alarm goes off). My fiancee and I never received WEAs on our phones because we were outside of the polygon, but when I pulled up Radarscope, what sure looked like a couplet was passing over Middleton just to our west.

Watch expanded to include parts of far SE MN/NE IA to account for cells developing in the Twin Cities area. Mention of hurricane force gusts possible in an area barely covered by the slight/marginal in the convective outlook. Grant/Crawford in WI also added. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1381.html

Surprised none of the warning texts have used enhanced/PDS wording or mentioned winds greater than 70 MPH yet.

Supercell over Waupaca is moving only 30 MPH (according to warning text) while bowing segment over Neillsville is moving 60 MPH!

Yikes...

If anything these storms appear to be getting more supercellular with time, especially the eastern one now over Iola/Scandinavia.

New tornado warning for the western side of the complex. Usually you expect severe events to start winding down after the sun sets. This one is just getting started.

Here we go! https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1379.html Although, it's "Rusk" County...

Now tornado-warned.

May just be distance from the respective radar (but warning wording is also stronger on it, too) but the eastern cluster riding along and east of US 51/I-39 looks to be the more impressive right now.

SPC with little change at go time on the 01Z outlook.