CheeselandSkies

Kinda sad that I'm this stoked just to see spots of red (≥50 dbz returns) on the MKX radar at this point.

Meanwhile, the ones in Dixie just keep on spinning...

El Reno 2011 may have been the most impressive EF5 since the enhanced-Fujita scale was introduced (along with Parkersburg 2008). The debris granulation and hurling/mangling of vehicles and large industrial equipment were on a level seen in only the most violent tornadoes. I don't believe any of the house damage was rated EF5 but only because they (per usual) were being extremely nit-picky with spacing of anchor bolts and what not, but with the contextual damage combined with the radar data they pretty much couldn't avoid rating it EF5. It was one of three tornadoes in Oklahoma that day that were at least as, if not more violent than any that infamous day three days shy of a month prior. It was very close to being another horrific disaster for the OKC metro, but El Reno missed to the north/west and the one that was tracking up I-44 toward Moore/Norman/Newcastle lifted just before it reached there (although, it only bought them a two-year reprieve).

The rest of your post is sad but

Good luck! If I lived an hour and a half further south I'd probably bite on today. Of course, if I lived an hour and a half further south I'd probably be a Bears fan, so...

As per usual, this sets up in the most annoying possible place for me - at just about the fringe of how far I can go on a work night and still get home in time to get a couple hours' sleep, and not good enough to really get my adrenaline flowing, but with enough conditional potential to keep me biting my nails watching the radar if I stay home. Some of that CAM output has been a little eye-opening, but the cloud cover is hanging tough across the area of interest. *Edit* Although as @Chicago Storm alluded to, some clearing does appear to be pushing in now. Also of concern though is that the HRRR seems to be depicting a rather cluster-y/bowing storm mode with the early evening activity along and north of I-72. It's like every setup is determined to remind me that I can never forgive myself for blowing Rochelle day.

Seems to be a few breaks in eastern IA/northern IL. Would like to see them expand, though and/or that clearing in MO expand NE'ward. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-IL-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

00Z HRRR is strongly suggestive of some fun along or just south of the I-80 corridor in IL tomorrow afternoon/evening. Of course, this would land during the only 3-day period in which I have to work from last Wednesday through this coming Thursday. Took off last Wednesday/Thursday, Friday/Saturday were my "weekend" since I worked today. So it'll be work tomorrow, get off at noon, race to the target area, chase, go home and go back to work at 3AM Tuesday. Then I have Wednesday/Thursday off since I'm working next weekend.

Who would have believed that the three deadliest tornadoes since Udall (1955) would all occur within less than a month of each other, with nothing else even close in the 56 years before or 10 years since?

Well THAT brings clarity for the quality of the rest of chase season.

Gadzoiks. Right on the path of the infamous 2010 EF4, too.

That 18Z run of the 3KM NAM also has that intriguing surface low in Iowa (that the 12Z "low-res" NAM had) with a small area of backed surface flow ahead of the triple point.

Several warnings ongoing in far SE MN and across that belt of Wisconsin from just north of La Crosse to just south of Green Bay that has seen just about all the action so far this spring. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0476.html

There we have it on the Day 2 update. Slight goes to about the I-80 corridor, marginal with 2% tornado to the WI/IL border. Confoundingly, the 12Z 3KM NAM is much less impressive with the environment over E IA/N IL tomorrow evening than is its coarser cousin. The latter makes it look like a definite local chase day with a nice little 996MB mesolow over eastern IA. The 3K, not so much.

Enhanced upgrade up for wind in KS. Was expecting it moreso in the Lower MS Valley risk area.

Chase mode activated.

Yep. 3KM NAM hardly breaks out anything over the "prime" risk area but plenty of storms over the upper Midwest. HRRR concurs but is more robust with development in the current Slight/hatched area as well.

Those are pretty high CAPE values for 06Z (1 AM CDT), but not entirely unexpected that there would be a capping layer at that time of night.

Sure would have been nice if it came with some Gulf moisture and storm chances.

Dust blowing around like Oklahoma in the 1930s out there today.

Seems like it's a given there every spring. Plains/MW not so much. * I will say, awfully nice to come on here and see five weather threads above "Coronavirus."

We'll see how things look in a month, but would have been nice if things would have gotten going a bit earlier.

Well, these last few days have saved it from being totally pathetic, but this April will still come in at only a little over 1/3 of average for tornado count, and just two EF3+ with this one added.

Little popcorn showers lighting up across southern WI now. Wasn't really expecting anything today. They're small, scattered and brief but at this point we need every drop we can get.

Except the early week storms in Wisconsin missed here to the north.