CheeselandSkies

Rinse/repeat yesterday, tomorrow?

System almost looks like a TC on satellite. Clearing is confined to a narrow corridor E-W, but storms should be moving almost due northward. Clearing starting to nose into areas near/east of Keokuk, IA. Edit: 15Z HRRR has the mother lode tracking through eastern Lee/western DeKalb Counties (IL) around 20Z. Confirms my hunch attm that Rochelle is as good a jumping off point as any.

There was a tornado warning up in the arrowhead of MN too, before the OK event even initiated.

I'll be staying local, although latest HRRR is less than encouraging for S. WI. May head down to roughly I-88 corridor/Rochelle and hang out. Worked for me on 8/9, shoulda done it on 4/9/15.

Couplet hasn't looked super tight yet.

Based on wind profiles in forecast soundings and associated CAM output, if chasing tomorrow be prepared for cells to be moving northward or perhaps even NNW. Not something one usually looks for unless a TC is involved.

New tornado warning covers an awful lot of real estate. Storm speed increasing with each warning statement. Edit: Dot of enhanced reflectivity at the tip of the hook in the 2319Z KFDR scan. Not sure if it's a legit debris ball, though. CC is inconclusive. Edit #2: Gone on next scan.

75 dbz reflectivity in the core of that tor-warned cell in OK. Don't see that too often.

May is overrated, Aug./Oct. are where it's at.

Looking at the models yesterday, the instability/EHI values weren't too impressive anywhere except Michigan.

He has a bit of a reputation among enthusiasts/chasers for being overly bullish on severe/particularly tornado potential compared to what actually ends up happening, especially at longer ranges. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Global models suggest a period of western troughing coming up that would be gorgeous in May...as it is might still see some "second season" severe weather events in the central CONUS as per the 4-8 although mode/potential chase quality TBD.

Oh no he di-n't! https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

With all the talk about how active/favorable it was supposed to be, the lack of a >40 ACE (landfalls or no) Sam/Irma/Ivan-quality system that had us waking up to a gorgeous stadium eye for days on end really stood out like a sore thumb in September 2020. Teddy tried but couldn't quite get on that level. For a while it looked like 2021 was going to go the same route with the very similar Larry being the best the MDR/CV could muster until Sam came in late to save the day.

If you've read the last three Day 4-8 outlooks, you can tell Broyles is champing at the bit to add a threat area for sometime over this coming weekend. The other forecasters had to take away his crayons.

That 500mb height pattern would be gorgeous in May. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

...and that's not even a happy hour run!

La Nina, brah. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Lucky (or unlucky depending on your point of view) this pattern isn't already in place, with Sam churning across the Atlantic.

It already achieved technical RI once from a TD to a high-end TS in less than 24 hours. I've noticed (with Michael, Ida and a few others in recent years) that these TCs which become high-end majors (AOA 120kt) tend to do so in two bursts, with a 12-24 hour leveling off in between.

I always found it an interesting stroke of "luck" that the CONUS had two Cat 4+ landfalls in the span of four years, each of which at the time was the costliest U.S. hurricane (Hugo and Andrew), in what was supposedly a "down" period of activity (you also had Bob in there as well, and Iniki in the Pacific). Then the U.S. went 12 years without a major (100kt+) hurricane landfall during an "up" period, after the assault of Charley, Francis, Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma from 2004-'05. Now we seem to be in another burst of activity, with Harvey, Irma, Michael, Laura and Ida from 2017 onwards (not to mention numerous weaker hurricanes and tropical storms in that timespan).

One of the better model wars between the Euro and GFS we've seen in some time; with most recent Atlantic TCs they've either mostly been in lockstep apart from subtle differences (as with storms like Ida) or both been garbage. Both sticking to their respective guns thus far...

This year's list has been good for memes/pop culture references, especially recently. You had Peter (Griffin)/Peter Rose Peter & Rose dissipating (Petered out/Rose..bud) There's also a locomotive in The Railway Series/Thomas the Tank Engine & Friends named "Peter Sam."

I'm surprised it's beating the "south=weaker" drum, since the more southerly track will put 18/Sam through the warmest possible water in front of it.

Peter vs. the shear: