CheeselandSkies

I have to wonder if the sharp snowpack gradient will help sharpen the warm front in some way. Broyles not impressed by Wednesday due to lack of instability, and he's historically been SPC's most bullish forecaster. That said it seems like SPC loses their nerve in recent years when it comes to hitting cool season events hard, which is unfortunate because in the same timeframe those seem to have been the ones producing high-impact outcomes more often than the high-hype, long lead time spring setups.

I went ahead and uploaded a Google Drive folder with all my GR Level 3 screenshots from this event. When I have time I'll hook up my phone and add all my RadarScope screenshots, mostly from KHPX after it stopped updating on GR Level 3 for some stupid reason (after KPAH was already down for everybody). https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1XnEHjfxXwljZ-OHkXwkTt0j7wWPfIXwh?usp=sharing First grab of the eventual quad-state supercell is from LZK at 2354 UTC. At 0029/0031 from NQA is when it showed that dramatic BWER which I remarked reminded me of the early stages of the Cullman tornado from 4/27. At 0259 from PAH is when the debris signature explodes again just before Cayce, KY and starting at 0317 is when it starts to approach Mayfield. Unfortunately I went to bed before the Bowling Green tornado.

If I'm not mistaken, that makes it the deadliest single tornado since Udall if not for Joplin, correct? *Although it remains to be seen if the single-tornado toll will exceed Hackleburg or Tuscaloosa.

Guessing all the 12/1/18 had to be in the Lincoln/St. Louis CWAs, then? Still, not terribly far off.

There's also Joplin... but yeah. These are death counts you never want to see in the NEXRAD area (only happened three times before, all within 26 days in 2011); that mean either something went horribly wrong with the warning system/public response, the tornado was extremely, extremely strong, or both.

Ironically though it was '11-'12 that was the dry, snowless winter as I recall. '12-'13 ended up decent at least where I was living at the time (Milwaukee area) but the vast majority of that came after mid-January. Not unlike 2020-'21.

MKX: SPC didn't sound impressed by anything when they put out their 4-8 this morning, but then again they didn't introduce a slight risk for last night's horror show until Wednesday (Day 3 outlook).

Here I assume you're referring to the famous in-cab video from the January 2008 IL outbreak?

I am surprised how much quality video has been coming out of this event given darkness, time of year, storm speeds and HP storm modes apart from the long-track classic monster. I guess I thought more people would have the good sense to not chase due to those factors.

At midnight, in December. Even 12/23 and 12/26/15 weren't this crazy.

Couplet doesn't look as extreme as earlier (Mayfield etc), but still a pronounced TDS at 4,000' from KLVX.

You hate to see that to a beautiful, historic old courthouse.

It cycled at least once south of the TN/KY line.

No updates from HPX or VWX on GR Level 3 since 10:14 CST...but they're working on RadarScope. Very very strange.

0:18 I think it lifted and quickly cycled in northern TN...current Mayfield etc tornado touched down just south of KY line.

KHPX developed issues just as KFVS' meteorologist remembered to use it...down on GR 3, but updating on RadarScope for me.

Reflectivity debris ball at 0259.

Don't see the "tornado damage threat...catastrophic" used very often.

Includes Caruthersville. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_April_2,_2006#Marmaduke,_AR/Caruthersville,_MO_F3_tornado

New tornado watch coming for parts of IL and IN not yet covered by existing watches.

Arkansas big dog on a path to threaten Caruthersville, MO which was hit by an F3 in April, 2006.

Looks like it missed the bulk of the town to the south, by some miracle. Nasty couplet just passed north of New Hartford, IL too heading for the I-72 corridor.

Finally!

I can't understand why AR warning hasn't been reissued/expanded NE to include Jonesboro.