CheeselandSkies

18Z models seem less supportive of a chase-worthy severe weather threat within my range either tomorrow or Friday afternoon. Sigh.

If these waves keep coming like this in September...watch out.

Models seem to be all over the place on where the most conducive environment will be Thursday and Friday afternoons. For quite a few runs central Nebraska looked pretty good (out of range for me unless I took tomorrow/Friday off). Now this morning's 12Z NAM suggests south-central to eastern Iowa (LIES!!!) to north-central and northeast Missouri (yuck!) and even west-central and northwest Illinois. Meanwhile the 3KM NAM highlights more eastern Kansas and west-central Missouri (likewise out of my range). NAM also paints a rather interesting/perhaps even ominous environment across parts of west-central Illinois (Jacksonville/Beardstown/Springfield area, roughly ground zero of the December 2018 outbreak) Friday afternoon/evening.

Latest NAM is a lot farther south with the favorable parameters (closer in line with GFS) on Friday afternoon. Gonna have to be ready to fly south as soon as I get off work if it looks chaseworthy.

2005 was extremely active (state record yearly total, state record outbreak on August 18 including the long-track, killer F3 Stoughton tornado). 2004 had also been very active. 2008 and 2010 were also rather busy but you are right in that ever since has been very quiet. We had an outbreak in June 2014 (actually, same day/evening as the Pilger family in Nebraska) but that was late at night and from a QLCS, not unlike the Chicago suburbs tornado that just happened. 2017 had a long-track EF3 in May but that was waaaaaay up in the unchaseable Northwoods.

Would be nice to see the NAM slow that front down for Friday, still, about 1500 j/kg MLCAPE progged at 12Z on the latest run. Even trips a PDS TOR sounding (although contaminated).

12Z NAM @ HR60 says HELLO!

I just realized yesterday was six years to the day from my 2015 chase in almost the exact same area of Iowa...didn't produce any visible tornadoes but did likewise produce a gorgeous sunset-lit mammatus display that is still my avatar pic (mainly because I haven't seen anything better since).

Attention now turns to late this week. SPC: Will these days provide any quality chase setups in the form of discrete supercells producing visible in the 22-01Z timeframe? Given the way this year has gone, the smart money is on "fat chance" but I haven't really looked at any model data yet. Probably still too early for it to be of much help pinning down things like storm mode/timing, anyway.

I chased the 15 hatched in Lie-owa that day and it was completely pointless, zilch in the way of visible, supercell tornadoes*, so comparisons to that day made me go "HELL no!". *Of course, a week later there was a gorgeous tornado near Traer without a watch even being in effect.

Ugh. I had all but written this event off for sig potential due to lack of afternoon recovery. Why do they have to happen at night, from a QLCS, in a city?

Storm looks to have lined out. Another tornado warning is east of Sigourney or near West Chester. Edit: New one near Fort Madison in far SE IA, actually looks decent on radar, at least reflectivity at 7,200' up. MKX has issued a SVR for Rock County, WI for a storm moving northeast out of Illinois.

Dang, was not expecting a warned cell there. Had written this day off per my earlier post. That said it looks fairly messy/HP on radar.

Insufficient recovery between rounds for WI/N IL/E IA...as I suspected. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Easy no-chase decision for me, then. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

SPC:

That's something I've been concerned about, since my fiancee will eventually need a kidney transplant...due to COVID giving her kidney failure.

Well we have our answer, ENH out for 30% unhatched wind stretching from SE IA to N IN/SW lwr. MI. Tornado outlook remains a fairly large 5% area, in reality the majority of it will probably see no tornadoes while there is a focused tornado threat near the track of the MCV. The broad zone is just to account for margin of error. My chasing range will be limited since I will be visiting my parents for Father's Day.

LOL

Complex really appears to finally be firing up in SE MN, going to ride the MS to La Crosse. Madison looks to be in the crosshairs around 05-06Z, so perhaps HRRR was right after all.

01Z SPC outlooked maintained ENH risk for sig wind for southern WI/northwest IL, even though there's only one warned cell in the complex near La Crosse right now and we're still not yet under a watch. They really could have dropped the 5% tornado. *Edit: Watch finally out.

Ofc best-looking supercell of the day (radar-wise) is riding the MS River. This is why I rarely bother to chase regionally.

Decent looking supercell west of Wabasha, MN, probably will just be a hailer for the time being. Looks like the SE-moving complex may be beginning to take shape between the Twin Cities and La Crosse. If that's the case, it may be through here several hours earlier than the HRRR has been consistently indicating.

88/59 at Madison at 5 PM...just stepped outside and it actually felt a little muggy, although it has become overcast*. Not that I ever really had high expectations for today as far as chaseworthiness, but definitely not a T/Td spread that screams *Radar actually shows a line of weaksauce showers already formed and about to pass over us. HRRR says to expect main line around 2 AM-3 AM CDT or exactly when I will be commuting to work.