CheeselandSkies

Nice view of the IA/NW-NC IL/SC-SE WI repetitive screw zone there, too.

Just had a flash/boom here.

Potential for a rather high-end (by our standards) synoptic wind event has kind of snuck up on us. Chief met at my employer mentioning potential for >50 MPH gusts this afternoon and evening. MKX has posted a wind advisory.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Jackson MS 1257 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022 The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Holmes County in central Mississippi... Southeastern Carroll County in north central Mississippi... Northwestern Attala County in central Mississippi... Southeastern Montgomery County in north central Mississippi... * Until 145 PM CST. Second tornado warning on this cell, first was (inexplicably in my opinion) allowed to expire about 20 minutes ago.

Make snow days great again...and just delete the coding for the GFS and start over.

Trash model, particularly when it comes to southern stream winter storms. Noted.

12Z GFS at 246 hours shows basically what I'm afraid of...broad area of vigorous SW flow at 500mb east of the Rockies, yet there is little surface response to speak of, moisture is confined to the southern half of the Gulf states and we never get above the low 30s for highs in Wisconsin. Of course, last week the GFS also had >20" of snow going NORTHWEST of Madison at the ~180 hour timeframe, so...

Whoa, Euro actually gives us more than 2 inches over the next 240 hours? Amazing.

This time, at least as of latest 06z run it's already starting out with the heavy swath passing south of us (through central IL) so watch it end up going through southeast Missouri, Kentucky and far southern Indiana/Ohio. In late February. Also MKX has a 70% chance of snow for Monday night and 50% Tuesday, but GFS doesn't really show any increase in accumulation over us in that timeframe.

Thanks for this post, I'm a severe wx guy so I had no clue how to use soundings to forecast winter wx.

Coming in with a bang...or some sort of explosion.

How does the GFS suck so bad especially after all the repeated upgrades in recent years including the much-touted "FV3 core"? Based on what I've seen on the tropical forums, it still sucks for TCs too but has flipped from showing too many fantasy storms to whiffing on genesis that do occur (although I do recall it still having a lot of phantom Carribbean/GOM cyclones last fall). Because severe weather events are so sensitive to details that usually evolve close-in (see: Derecho, Iowa) I don't even really bother looking at the globals for it anymore other than to say "there may be potential for something somewhere in this time-frame."

Hooray, time to flip from repeated big snows missing SE, to rainers.

Ugliest winter I can remember in a quite a few years. I'm not exactly a fan of the season the way many on here are, but if it has to be cold and unpleasant out, can't it at least look pretty once in a while?

That's why we're down from 5"-7" on the NW fringe to less than 2."

12Z GFS not budging...seems the models don't agree on anything except very paltry totals (if anything beyond DAB) northwest of a line drawn right through our BY, @madwx

Has me right on the line between another virtual shutout and about 2"...first time in my observations any model besides the GFS has given us more than a dusting.

Usual disclaimer, it's the 18Z GFS at >200hours but that run verbatim would be another significant ice storm somewhere in the sub. Maybe third time's the charm for those of us getting missed again this week? At any rate, it would be nice to start eating away at the precip deficit here as we head into spring. Dreaming of with a surface pattern like that about 10 weeks from now.

Come on GFS. We have been so bone dry around here. Running nearly 20" below normal in Madison.

Riding that 6"+ line again (10:1, even more so Kuchera) @madwx

Didn't recognize you without Smooth Jimmy.

So in other words, miss SE again for those of us who got shafted by the last one. If I were a snow lover, this winter for southern WI wouldn't even merit an F-. It would get kicked out of school for academic dishonesty.

Places in WI that were getting >12" for 5, 6 runs straight as of yesterday's 12Z GFS are now getting <3" on today's 12Z.

And what pattern is that, exactly? And what combination of teleconnections will it take to change that? Seems no matter what, +/- ENSO, PDO, NAO, AO etc the result is the same for years on end.