CheeselandSkies
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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies
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MKX confirms EF1 in Jefferson and EF0 in Waukesha County.
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Reviewing our overnight coverage at work, there was a blatant TDS just southwest of Watertown around 1:05-1:10 AM. Event certainly did not bust on the whole, and in fact overachieved a bit vs. early day expectations in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, but I expected a denser concentration of wind reports further north (basically a solid blue NNW-SSE streak across WI) and more sig wind reports.
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Was woken up by the sirens - there's one just outside our apartment building - just before 1 AM (or 1 hour 15 minutes before my alarm goes off). My fiancee and I never received WEAs on our phones because we were outside of the polygon, but when I pulled up Radarscope, what sure looked like a couplet was passing over Middleton just to our west.
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Watch expanded to include parts of far SE MN/NE IA to account for cells developing in the Twin Cities area. Mention of hurricane force gusts possible in an area barely covered by the slight/marginal in the convective outlook. Grant/Crawford in WI also added. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1381.html
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Surprised none of the warning texts have used enhanced/PDS wording or mentioned winds greater than 70 MPH yet.
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Supercell over Waupaca is moving only 30 MPH (according to warning text) while bowing segment over Neillsville is moving 60 MPH!
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Yikes...
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If anything these storms appear to be getting more supercellular with time, especially the eastern one now over Iola/Scandinavia.
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New tornado warning for the western side of the complex. Usually you expect severe events to start winding down after the sun sets. This one is just getting started.
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Here we go! https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1379.html Although, it's "Rusk" County...
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Now tornado-warned.
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May just be distance from the respective radar (but warning wording is also stronger on it, too) but the eastern cluster riding along and east of US 51/I-39 looks to be the more impressive right now.
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SPC with little change at go time on the 01Z outlook.
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I may have to eat my words here shortly with that Grantsburg cell, although of course it is in the worst of the radar hole equidistant from KDLH and KMPX.
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Yeah, rather bizarre situation there. Just looking at the radar almost right off the bat, it seems things want to line/bow out pretty quick so looking like the longer-lived/strong (supercell) tornado threat won't really materialize. Not to say there couldn't be a stronger (EF2 or even 3, like that Chicago 'burbs one a few weeks ago) spin-up with an HP supercell embedded in the QLCS as it takes shape down the road.
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Latest HRRR kills the western half of the complex and brings the most intense activity near/south of Green Bay, over LM and into the IN/OH/MI border region by Thursday morning.
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Already what looks on radar like it could be an incipient supercell northwest of Wausau. Unwarned as of yet. Watch includes (as already noted) most of WI and all of my employer's market coverage area apart from Grant and Crawford.
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MD expires in 12 minutes and no watch yet...
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HRRR gradually trending toward bringing the western end of the MCS over the Madison area, although weakened from earlier, but of course it wants to bring the storms through right when I'll be commuting to work.
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Now we're talking. Sun's back out here, after we were overcast for a time this afternoon.
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First MD out just for 40% probability of a watch over north-central MN (slight risk area). Still in watchful waiting mode.
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Interesting curl shape/possible broad cyclonic rotation to the southwest edge of the anvil debris/cirrus clouds currently drifting southeast through central Iowa. Not sure if that has any implications on the scenario for later. The cloud deck in general appears to finally be shrinking/dissipating with heating building back in over MN/IA. Edit: No change to the southwestern edge of the risk areas at 1630Z, slight/marginal expanded to the northeast.
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If the CAM solutions are right, Madison doesn't need to be in the Enhanced risk. HRRR and 3K NAM still largely agree on a whiff northeast. Now that I check the WRFs, they give us some storms but not nearly as potent as points north/east.
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HRRR is a whiff northeast. So is 3KM NAM, at least with the intense portion of the MCS.
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"Roared and poured" for about 10 minutes starting right around 2 AM, or 15 minutes before my alarm went off (3AM work start time). I love storms but on this shift every minute of sleep is precious.
