CheeselandSkies

S MI, too. The winter wx equivalent of the 1965 Palm Sunday tornado outbreak.

Leave it to a Chicagoan... Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

GHD I also nailed southern WI though, while GHD II was largely a miss south which this one will be too barring a dramatic 11th hour NW trend which as others have mentioned seems to no longer be a thing. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

That's the last December big dog in my memory. About 10"-12" of heart attack paste (imagine the totals with a better ratio!) where I was living just outside of Stoughton, WI at the time. Brought down a tree limb across the top of our driveway, my dad and I both took off work and spent the entire day clearing the driveway. 979.8 MB pressure recorded at Madison with this storm.

Op GFS seems to love cold in the long range for some reason but as @madwx posted in the other thread, there is some other support for this although probably won't verify as extreme as depicted here.

I mean...I have mixed feelings that we trended away from that pattern now, but it'd be nice if we could book it for April/May.

I'm not a met, I work behind the scenes for a local TV station here in Madison. *Edit: I see why he did that now with those Euro maps, I was looking at the GFS which gave us 11" Kuchera on the latest run.

Chief met at my employer being really hush hush with this, he even lowered pops on the 7-day this morning. One of our other mets is an open snow weenie so we'll see what he does.

Must be an issue with my copy then, it's only displaying velocity for those sites.

Hmmmmm, this is disappointing. On GR Level 3 there doesn't seem to be a base reflectivity product available for the Chicago-area terminal Dopplers (ORD, MDW). Is this normal? Was hoping to get a closer look at this band than can be done from KLOT.

Well, combine that with that CMC run and there is somewhat of a signal for something big running SW-NE across the sub in that timeframe. How big and who jackpots all TBD of course.

Let's do it again in April.

I thought that was supposed to be after the "pattern change."

Yep.

Oh, I know it's far from the only possible cause, just one that has some staying power. I remember the BN conditions lingering in the Lakes well into May 2014 were being attributed to the SSWE that occurred early in the year and led to the deep cold Jan/Feb.

Good. If there's an SSW now it'll be BN through mid-May.

That's a perfect surface pattern...for May.

Well, that graphic he posted is through the end of the run (240 hrs) so taking the pain right through to the end of January.

Never fails. Again, every winter since I've been active on here it's barely snowed until the last 1/3 of January, yet we get an extended period of bleeding-knuckles temps.

So where's that pattern change? Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

I remember discussing the "clipper train" of late Jan./early Feb. 2019 on here (thread started by @Hoosier ). I believe it was only thanks to a discussion this winter that I finally know what "DAB" means, back then I interpreted it as "a little dab of snow," but didn't understand why it was capitalized.

Yes, I remember '07-'08, '09-'10, and '10-'11 all being quite active winters in the upper Midwest. '08-'09 I don't remember as well although I seem to recall there were some light snow events around Thanksgiving 2008. '07-'08 I was still going to college in Green Bay although I returned to stay with family in the Madison area for winter break; it was probably the most active wall-to-wall winter in my adult memory even including the thaw and outbreak in early January. It was 2008, 2010 and the first half of 2011 that gave me the impression that La Ninas are very active for both winter and . Then the dry, scorching and dull 2012 happened, and most of the Nina patterns since 2017 have also had long stretches of mind-numbingly quiescent periods for both types of weather punctuated by occasional diamonds in the rough. I wasn't a huge fan of 2013-'14 either, although it was undeniably very wintry. The sustained deep cold and frequent "nuisance" (1-3") snowfalls got to me, since it was my first winter at my current job with a 3 AM start time; an apartment with outdoor parking and a puny electric heating unit which had to run 24/7 for over six weeks straight just to keep my apartment bearable, sending my power bills through the roof.

1" measured at Westby, WI. Cassville in SW Grant County getting a decent thumping over the last few hours per their live webcam.

Here goes...central-western IA/northern Plains peeps enjoy. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0066.html