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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    Gettin' salty in here. Somebody was overzealous treating the roads...as usual.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    You'd think one of these years I'd learn to throw climo out the window and just pay attention to the damn 3km CAPE map. Even so, sounds like it was a tough chase for most and with few exceptions, the best/clearest footage of the tornadoes came from local yahoos who had way too close calls.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    Yesterday/last night was the desperately needed salt-washer that we never really got all of March and April last year. Problem is, it's going to snow again.
  4. CheeselandSkies
    Strong tornadoes to 4" of snow in less than 60 hours...welcome to March.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Seven, there was one fatality in the Chariton tornado as well.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    Six fatalities in Winterset tornado and one in Chariton per WHO-13.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    Not under a warning, but quite gusty here as the line moves in. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Nice downpour ongoing here, first thunder of the year for me since I missed hearing it during that "thundersleet" a few weeks ago. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  9. CheeselandSkies
    01Z SPC outlook expanded the enhanced risk for wind into more of far SW/SC WI as well as NW/NC IL. The long-lived tornadic cell already appears to be shrinking/disorganizing a little bit due to sunset. The MS River can act as a brick wall for severe convection even into late May, so we'll see.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    Right?! Apparently I still haven't learned that they produce way better than May/June nowadays.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    related posts go here: After today, looks seasonable through Wednesday after which highs drop into the 20s through the following weekend, although not dramatically/excessively cold air as depicted on some model runs (as usual).
  12. CheeselandSkies
    Ugh. Really thought there were some kinematic issues too (unidirectional winds above 850mb) that would prevent long-lived supercellular mode. If not for that I would have gone.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    Fine time for GR Level 3 to stop updating the radar data.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Atmosphere making me eat my words today. Edit @Chicago Stormbeat me to it.
  15. CheeselandSkies
    Corning/Prescott storm looks like it may became to become dominant enough to produce a more significant tornado, at least for a little while. It's on track for the southern part of the Des Moines area but not sure if it'll stay in a tornadic mode that long.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    Tail-end Charlie getting it done near Corning, approaching Prescott.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    As I suspected, looks like a mess already with tons of left splits and storms crashing into each other. Even so, there's been a tornado reported near Emerson, IA.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    SPC went up to 10% on the 20Z outlook for parts of SW/SC IA. Tornado watch out. As usual, going to make me bite my nails on choosing not to go, but I stand my my assertion that the window for quality tornadic supercells, if any, will be quite narrow. They also added a 70% contour to the general thunder outlook, which Madison is on the eastern extent of.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    Thought about it, but the best action looks to be a little too far west for my liking and there are issues with the setup besides marginal moisture that decrease my confidence in more than transient supercellular mode. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  20. CheeselandSkies
    At a glance, that sounding ironically has a lot more CAPE than earlier runs, but wonky directional shear and paltry SRH.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    I couldn't do it.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    Looks identical to the two main Feb. storms, watch the southern one trend south and screw S. WI/E. IA/NW-NC IL again.
  23. CheeselandSkies
    February 2022 definitely did not bring the action for southern WI though the way 2/20 and '21 did (*see above post made as I was typing mine).
  24. CheeselandSkies
    NAM suggests even more meager instability than the GFS despite what appear to be decent lapse rates ahead of the cold front...looks like Saturday will be a "save the gas and enjoy the rain" kind of day at this point. Would like to bottle that forecast 500mb pattern and repeat it in about 6-8 weeks, though.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    Yeah, for Saturday surface/500 mb look intriguing and have for quite a while, but paltry instability values have also been a consistent aspect of the model forecasts despite relatively high dewpoints for the latitude and time of year. As I've mentioned, it can happen but it takes absolutely on point kinematics and really cold air aloft (3/15/16 being a good example). At this point not really seeing a strong signal toward that, SPC's areal outline seems more like a "hedge our bets" type of forecast.
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