CheeselandSkies

SPC today... LOL summer.

MKX's late morning AFD update was good for an LOL:

"No...Ida." "BLAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGH!"

All the surge with Zeta was over sparsely populated Terrebonne Parish, it moved through quickly with damaging winds on the front eyewall but little on the back side, as it had already begun to open up (halfacane).

Agreed, an embarrassing number of recon issues lately. We'll have to resort to assessing TC intensity by surveying after the fact like with tornadoes.

It's not lopsided...that's typical wind distribution for a well-formed hurricane.

...and that leaves room for further intensification with 24 hrs between forecast points.

Effect will be negligible if only goes over that narrow western end. It didn't do much to Charley as I recall (maybe knocked it back 5kt, but that didn't stop the RI prior to Florida landfall).

HWRF with this has given us Laura Pt. 2, Ike Pt. 2, and now Rita Pt. 2. Nothing good, either way.

Enhanced for wind today, now also Day 2 slight for Friday with 5% tor over northern Iowa/SE MN/WC WI.

Day 2 slight/marginal expanded eastward to include much of IA/S. WI/N. IL on 1730 update. Rather like yesterday, an area of intense and/or concentrated severe weather could occur, but it's impossible to pinpoint where, hence the meh probabilities.

Well on the plus side I guess if it is a Laura redux, there's not much left in that area to destroy (don't forget Delta also affected that general area last year). I suspect Cameron, Creole and Grand Chenier are pretty much gone. Only thing is if it does what Laura didn't and comes in a little west of Calcasieu Pass, pushing the surge right through it and into downtown Lake Charles. Laura's landfall was pretty much a center bullseye on the pass, meaning the brunt of the onshore flow/surge was just to the east of there.

I love hurricanes but...hard pass.

@ldub23went awfully quiet all of a sudden...

Of course, the minute I write off that sort of potential for the day and stop paying attention. Western one has the usual problem of being in awful terrain. It momentarily had a "flying eagle" reflectivity signature, but doesn't look quite as good on the most recent scan. I've also noticed RadarScope's color scale really overcooks the velocities compared to GR Level 3. Could see a brief touchdown out of one of these, perhaps something similar to what happened near Mineral Point on the 11th.

This one will be blowing up phones: Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL 310 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021 IAC019-055-061-242045- /O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-210824T2045Z/ Buchanan IA-Dubuque IA-Delaware IA- 310 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN BUCHANAN...NORTHWESTERN DUBUQUE AND DELAWARE COUNTIES... At 309 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Strawberry Point to near Dundee to Masonville, moving east at 45 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR northeast Buchanan and northern Deleware county! HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. These severe storms will be near... Manchester and Edgewood around 320 PM CDT. Other locations in the path of these severe thunderstorms include Delhi, Greeley, Delaware, Oneida, Earlville, Colesburg, Dyersville, New Vienna, Worthington, Epworth, Farley, Holy Cross, Luxemburg and Bankston. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant property damage. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 4267 9088 4241 9087 4235 9111 4240 9180 4253 9176 4264 9175 4265 9090 4267 9090 TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 277DEG 40KT 4265 9157 4252 9158 4245 9160 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

Looks like Cedar Rapids gonna get screwed again, not that they need any more damaging winds. New warning just issued including northern Linn has the "considerable" damage threat tag. Meanwhile, bunch of little rumblers popping up and rolling over me.

SPC's 1630 update in so many words: "We don't know what's going to happen."

Clear outflow boundary percolating southward through eastern Iowa with strong heating either side of it.

They don't seem real gung-ho on any potential, but something to keep an eye on at least. These August days can be sneaky as we've seen.

@hawkeye_wx @cyclone77 I was in eastern Iowa yesterday (I-80 corridor vicinity just west of the QC, took US 61 through Maquoketa/Dubuque to/from) and it struck me how much drier everything looked compared to south-central WI.

She's beauty, she's Grace, she'll throw a tree in your face.

12Z UKMET with the ultimate weenie run.

The way the trough has evolved on modeling it's almost TOO negatively tilted, resulting in rather meridional 500mb flow, which seems to mostly lag behind the warm sector. Sunday apparently is now also of interest across the same general area.

HWRF is all discombobulated its *two* forecast MH landfalls on SE Florida failed to materialize and now it just doesn't know what to do. *Although in all seriousness, given the way the HWRF over-reacts to favorable conditions, is it possible that it also at times over-reacts to unfavorable or at least sub-optimal conditions, such as a certain amount of PVS-induced shear?