CheeselandSkies

Don't worry, we (at least we here in southern Wisconsin) will get repeated cold intrusions and more snow than we got in Dec./Jan. combined (although it will all be slushy slop and melt within two days) from now through the end of April.

Pretty significant differences in timing between the 00Z HRRR and 3KM NAM, with Madison continuing to accrue ZR through 20Z Tuesday afternoon the former; while the event is essentially done by 09Z Tuesday morning on the latter. @madwx

Public report estimated 55 MPH gust at Pardeeville.

Dont know if MKX has ever issued one of these before today. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Snow Squall Warning National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 646 PM CST Fri Feb 18 2022 WIC021-025-027-039-055-131-190145- /O.NEW.KMKX.SQ.W.0004.220219T0046Z-220219T0145Z/ Fond du Lac WI-Columbia WI-Dane WI-Washington WI-Jefferson WI- Dodge WI- 646 PM CST Fri Feb 18 2022 The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a * Snow Squall Warning for... Southeastern Fond du Lac County in east central Wisconsin... Southeastern Columbia County in south central Wisconsin... Northeastern Dane County in south central Wisconsin... Northern Washington County in southeastern Wisconsin... Northern Jefferson County in southeastern Wisconsin... Dodge County in southeastern Wisconsin... * Until 745 PM CST. * At 645 PM CST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line extending from near Waupun to Waunakee, moving southeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Poor visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow. Wind gusts greater than 40 mph. SOURCE...Radar and webcams. IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel. * This includes the following highways... Interstates 90 and 94. Interstate 41. Locations impacted include... Madison, West Bend, Sun Prairie, Watertown, Beaver Dam, Hartford, Monona, Lake Mills, Mayville, Slinger, Columbus, Kewaskum, Marshall, Horicon, Waterloo, Juneau, Cottage Grove, Johnson Creek, Deerfield and Shorewood Hills. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Reduce your speed and turn on headlights! During snow squalls, the visibility may suddenly drop to near zero in whiteout conditions. Wet roadways will quickly freeze. Black ice will cause roads, bridges and overpasses to become slick and dangerous. Slow down and be prepared for sudden loss of traction. && LAT...LON 4319 8851 4320 8853 4318 8854 4304 8873 4307 8952 4357 8863 4356 8816 4354 8816 4354 8804 4352 8804 TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 299DEG 40KT 4359 8864 4317 8948 $$ ANDERSON

Nice view of the IA/NW-NC IL/SC-SE WI repetitive screw zone there, too.

Just had a flash/boom here.

Potential for a rather high-end (by our standards) synoptic wind event has kind of snuck up on us. Chief met at my employer mentioning potential for >50 MPH gusts this afternoon and evening. MKX has posted a wind advisory.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Jackson MS 1257 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022 The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Holmes County in central Mississippi... Southeastern Carroll County in north central Mississippi... Northwestern Attala County in central Mississippi... Southeastern Montgomery County in north central Mississippi... * Until 145 PM CST. Second tornado warning on this cell, first was (inexplicably in my opinion) allowed to expire about 20 minutes ago.

Make snow days great again...and just delete the coding for the GFS and start over.

Trash model, particularly when it comes to southern stream winter storms. Noted.

12Z GFS at 246 hours shows basically what I'm afraid of...broad area of vigorous SW flow at 500mb east of the Rockies, yet there is little surface response to speak of, moisture is confined to the southern half of the Gulf states and we never get above the low 30s for highs in Wisconsin. Of course, last week the GFS also had >20" of snow going NORTHWEST of Madison at the ~180 hour timeframe, so...

Whoa, Euro actually gives us more than 2 inches over the next 240 hours? Amazing.

This time, at least as of latest 06z run it's already starting out with the heavy swath passing south of us (through central IL) so watch it end up going through southeast Missouri, Kentucky and far southern Indiana/Ohio. In late February. Also MKX has a 70% chance of snow for Monday night and 50% Tuesday, but GFS doesn't really show any increase in accumulation over us in that timeframe.

Thanks for this post, I'm a severe wx guy so I had no clue how to use soundings to forecast winter wx.

Coming in with a bang...or some sort of explosion.

How does the GFS suck so bad especially after all the repeated upgrades in recent years including the much-touted "FV3 core"? Based on what I've seen on the tropical forums, it still sucks for TCs too but has flipped from showing too many fantasy storms to whiffing on genesis that do occur (although I do recall it still having a lot of phantom Carribbean/GOM cyclones last fall). Because severe weather events are so sensitive to details that usually evolve close-in (see: Derecho, Iowa) I don't even really bother looking at the globals for it anymore other than to say "there may be potential for something somewhere in this time-frame."

Hooray, time to flip from repeated big snows missing SE, to rainers.

Ugliest winter I can remember in a quite a few years. I'm not exactly a fan of the season the way many on here are, but if it has to be cold and unpleasant out, can't it at least look pretty once in a while?

That's why we're down from 5"-7" on the NW fringe to less than 2."

12Z GFS not budging...seems the models don't agree on anything except very paltry totals (if anything beyond DAB) northwest of a line drawn right through our BY, @madwx

Has me right on the line between another virtual shutout and about 2"...first time in my observations any model besides the GFS has given us more than a dusting.

Usual disclaimer, it's the 18Z GFS at >200hours but that run verbatim would be another significant ice storm somewhere in the sub. Maybe third time's the charm for those of us getting missed again this week? At any rate, it would be nice to start eating away at the precip deficit here as we head into spring. Dreaming of with a surface pattern like that about 10 weeks from now.