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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
  2. CheeselandSkies
    Fine. Excessive speed far beyond the limits of what the road was designed for.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    Excessive speed sounds reckless to me.
  4. CheeselandSkies
    09/0Z GFS holds serve, although soundings aren't that impressive the synoptic pieces are there with a surface low near the WI/IA/IL confluence at 21Z Monday afternoon and a belt of spring-like 40-50kt WSW-SW flow at 500mb. Edit: On the 06Z, the area of most interest is moved north into WI, beautiful shear profile along the warm front but the capping looks stout at 21Z.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Regarding next Monday, 18Z GFS took a big nosedive with verbatim regional severe potential vs. 12Z, but the pieces are there. It's just a question of will they come together and where? Edit: For reference, a 12Z forecast sounding for a point not far from the 8/9 tornadofest, if not a tad further east/uncomfortably close to the Chicago 'burbs.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    Looking ahead... August decided to act like May for us, so Sept. gonna act like June? I'm all for it.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    Will anyone remember Larry except hardcore wx weenies? Doubtful.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Watch issued for SC/SE WI including Dane County...which the line was already most of the way through at the time. Rather ominous shelf cloud and some CG lightning came through here just before 11:00.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    Upper Midwest in general finally got in its first "tornadoes for all who want them" pattern in quite a few years from the latter half of July through about the first third of August. Even I and @Malacka11 managed to cash in a little bit. Still have things to kick myself for on each chase, but at least there WERE chases.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    Do they just stop paying attention after the summer solstice?
  11. CheeselandSkies
    Seems like this kind of thing only happens in WI on the low-key outlook days. Enhanced/moderate risk with hatched area for hail and we don't see this. That said, it seems the upper Midwest in general rarely gets really large hail events, even with our tornadic supercells (not like in the way that the Plains does). Which is fine with me, since I'm not looking to lose my windshield on a chase.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    Pretty solid model agreement that the core should miss Bermuda to the east, seems the westward shifts from early on have stopped/even reversed a bit. Good chance they get TS-force winds out of the north as it passes by, though.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    He'll be alright.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    We gonna west shift all the way to Texas?
  15. CheeselandSkies
    September is an odd time for severe weather events in this region, but with the way August overachieved compared to May and June I suppose anything is possible at this point. Hell just within the last five years we've had tornado outbreaks in December and February.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    What looked from video like a fairly large tornado occurred in New Jersey associated with Ida's remnant low.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    I'm good with that as long as it's not a whole season.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Nice respite after the wonderfully stormy (regionally speaking) but often warm/oppressively humid August.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    That's more of a dry slot than a proper eye, but this has great outflow structure and no vertical stacking issues early on unlike most of the earlier-season systems. This cyclone is going places, especially as it gets into warmer waters further west and even northwest.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    Sure it is. They report 135kt/155 MPH easily (was Michael's operational landfall intensity). 55, 95 and 135 MPH are the ones you won't see because there's no conversion from knots that rounds to 5. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  21. CheeselandSkies
    Kinda reminds me of Irma...remember after that first bout of RI close to Africa it kind of hung out at the borderline between Cat. 2/3 for a day or two and then it hit the rocket fuel. Of course Ida doesn't have that long but it's hitting the rocket fuel now.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    I da bomb.
  23. CheeselandSkies
    Those outflow channels...there's a reason the hurricane symbol is shaped like it is.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    As usual, the MS River acts as a brick wall for tornadic supercells coming east out of Iowa.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    Aw man, I coulda made it to Iowa today. That went just north of my storm on 7/14. I got too caught up in watching Hurricane Ida stuff after work and then took a nap, didn't pay attention to what was going on here locally.
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