CheeselandSkies

I was referring to the Wichita area stuff apparently failing to become sustained/organized before total darkness, and the NE/KS border area stuff getting undercut by the cold front and clustering up before it could produce a long-track significant tornado.

Embedded sup SW of TWX radar has had an impressive couplet at times over the last 20 minutes.

Really strange behavior on radar...almost looks like the tornado moved north across the back end of the supercell instead of moving along with it.

Of course...literally the minute I call bust and stop paying attention.

Reminds me so much of how 5/26/21 played out. Dryline target seemed to be uptrending throughout the day of, only to fail anyway.

Next Tuesday could also potentially be a severe weather day somewhere in the sub. 06Z GFS has an ideal surface pattern for a N IL outbreak at FH102...except it's happening at 12Z. The cold front is pushing through far SE Lower MI/NW OH/southern IN by 00Z Wednesday.

Wind-driven moderate risk upgrade centered on the KS/NE border at 13Z. Wasn't really expecting that. If they were gonna go moderate I thought it would be 15% tornado/45% hail down in S KS/N OK. They did directly address this in the discussion: This is really the kind of day that the 10% hatched Enhanced is perfect for, IMO. In the old 3-tier outlook structure, there isn't enough confidence in sustained tornadic supercell development over S KS/OK for a 15% hatched moderate risk, but a 5%/slight risk doesn't really convey the extent of the hazards that would occur should any such storms get going.

Yep, GFS/NAM/3KM NAM pretty much all agree on far EC IL into Indiana being the hot spot. Hoping the GFS's 2nd-day (of a severe event, thinking of 4/12-13) progressive bias is at play here, although the NAM agreement gives me pause.

The bolded was what burned my chase on 5/26/21. I gambled that the CAMS being relatively subdued with convection/UH in west-central/SW KS was a positive thing for chase quality. I ended up on that skeletal LP northwest of Scott City; after it was clear to me it wasn't going to intensify (and in fact was doing the opposite), I broke for additional cells SW of Dodge City which suffered a similar fate by the time I reached them. I don't recall capping really being thought to be a big event-breaker leading up to that day. Was there something else at play?

Truth.

FYP.

Interesting to see Monday starting to show as a potential setup...it caught my eye on the GFS a few days ago but the soundings were all totally capped.

12Z run holds serve and goes out to 00Z Sunday...not the ideal setup but looks like good mid/upper diffluence and lapse rates over the warm sector...SPC gonna need to come north/possibly east (into IN) quite a bit with the Day 4 risk area if that verifies.

12Z NAM has 42 degrees for MBY at 21Z tomorrow, and 58 in Galesburg, IL about 2.5 degrees latitude south. Brutal.

It's at the end of its range but 06 NAM raised my eyebrows a bit for Saturday, although SPC placed their Day 4 risk area much further south. I'm loath to ask off so I can chase Friday after I took 4/13 off so I could get some sleep after marathoning 5 hours to Ft. Dodge after working 3A-noon Tuesday 4/12, only to miss the Gilmore City tornado by a few minutes/miles.

1995 was a good summer as I recall in the Madison area, although I was only 9. Hot but active with frequent thunderstorms/severe threats. 2012 was just mind-numbingly boring wx-wise with nothing even to track from afar in the stretch between the 4/14 Plains outbreak, and Hurricane Sandy.

It sucked. Cold garbage through April then the jet went to Canada, no season to speak of.

Seems like a lot of synoptic wind events going back to at least last fall, including the day of Iowa's December derecho/tornado outbreak. That's when I got the video of the patio umbrella crashing to the ground at the apartment building across the road.

Got on the Iowa storm of the day but missed the Gilmore City tornado by waiting at/on IA-3 just east of Humboldt for the storm to come to me (not wanting to get behind by having to go back through town due to anticipated fast storm speeds, and not wanting to tangle with the forward flank core due to high potential for large hail). If only it had had an additional classic tornado cycle or two during daylight, I would have been in great position for those, but alas. Still a fun (if exhausting, 12 hours straight on the roads after working 3AM-noon Tuesday) chase. It got a little hairy as I raced up I-35 to US-18 east at Mason City with the forward flank core encroaching on the highway to my north and the "business end" of the supercell (with recently reported tornado north of Belmond/west of Thornton) to my west. I got a lightning-lit glimpse of what appeared to be a large wall cloud with "beaver tail" extending toward the forward flank core. I took 18 all the way home, with the supercell an increasing distance (10s of miles) to my northwest based on radar, but there still seemed to be lightning all around me. The Riceville tornado apparently occurred just after I got out of Charles City radio range, and by the time I got home shortly after 12:30 AM, the supercell was gone and all warnings on the MCS dropped.

I'm kinda unsure on the supercell potential in Iowa. NWS seems to be banking on 3KM NAM's solution of instant QLCS, with any window for discrete activity being back in Nebraska. I can't get that far in time after work today. HRRR meanwhile looks epic, with long-tracked discrete cells with a robust UH streaks in an extremely volatile environment; and it has been basically consistent with it since this evening came in range.

One of the reasons Palm Sunday 1965 is so fascinating to me. Basically the only example in somewhat recent history of a true regional outbreak that affected IA, IL, WI, IN and MI with sig . And coming early in the season as it did, at a time when the lakes are usually a negating factor for instability in at least part of the region.

4/9/15 says hi...of course I didn't believe it the day of, either which is why I missed it. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

That or it gives them enough time to get themselves into trouble, for example by trying to evacuate out of the path and (if in a metro area) creating a traffic jam.

I work 3AM-noon, so not too far off.

GFS has 54 degrees at 06Z Monday, NAM 51...