CheeselandSkies

Seems like a lot of synoptic wind events going back to at least last fall, including the day of Iowa's December derecho/tornado outbreak. That's when I got the video of the patio umbrella crashing to the ground at the apartment building across the road.

Got on the Iowa storm of the day but missed the Gilmore City tornado by waiting at/on IA-3 just east of Humboldt for the storm to come to me (not wanting to get behind by having to go back through town due to anticipated fast storm speeds, and not wanting to tangle with the forward flank core due to high potential for large hail). If only it had had an additional classic tornado cycle or two during daylight, I would have been in great position for those, but alas. Still a fun (if exhausting, 12 hours straight on the roads after working 3AM-noon Tuesday) chase. It got a little hairy as I raced up I-35 to US-18 east at Mason City with the forward flank core encroaching on the highway to my north and the "business end" of the supercell (with recently reported tornado north of Belmond/west of Thornton) to my west. I got a lightning-lit glimpse of what appeared to be a large wall cloud with "beaver tail" extending toward the forward flank core. I took 18 all the way home, with the supercell an increasing distance (10s of miles) to my northwest based on radar, but there still seemed to be lightning all around me. The Riceville tornado apparently occurred just after I got out of Charles City radio range, and by the time I got home shortly after 12:30 AM, the supercell was gone and all warnings on the MCS dropped.

I'm kinda unsure on the supercell potential in Iowa. NWS seems to be banking on 3KM NAM's solution of instant QLCS, with any window for discrete activity being back in Nebraska. I can't get that far in time after work today. HRRR meanwhile looks epic, with long-tracked discrete cells with a robust UH streaks in an extremely volatile environment; and it has been basically consistent with it since this evening came in range.

One of the reasons Palm Sunday 1965 is so fascinating to me. Basically the only example in somewhat recent history of a true regional outbreak that affected IA, IL, WI, IN and MI with sig . And coming early in the season as it did, at a time when the lakes are usually a negating factor for instability in at least part of the region.

4/9/15 says hi...of course I didn't believe it the day of, either which is why I missed it. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

That or it gives them enough time to get themselves into trouble, for example by trying to evacuate out of the path and (if in a metro area) creating a traffic jam.

I work 3AM-noon, so not too far off.

GFS has 54 degrees at 06Z Monday, NAM 51...

Raw and overcast with rain and show showers this morning. Had a brief period of unexpected sunshine a little bit ago, now spitting rain again. Sounds about right for April in Wisconsin, especially a La Nina April. Edit: And three minutes later, sun shining into my window again.

Regardless of how exactly next week shakes out, it's a good thing it'll be the one week this month when both KMKX and KDVN are up.

Grass at my work is starting to green up in the sunshine this morning. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

For MI, perhaps. For IA/IL/WI confluence... Looking for redemption after sitting out 3/5.

GFS bouncing around as usual at this range but some runs bring some pretty big CAPE values well up into the sub mid-next week.

Looks like a snow globe out there. More of this in December, less in April, please.

Looks -y. One thing I've learned over the past few years, La Nina alone isn't enough. Gotta stop putting off that pre-chase season work on my car. 3/5 caught me unprepared.

Winds howling out there tonight. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Hope we in the NW sub can get into some of that severe action, too. It's always annoying when we get a significant event way earlier in the season than seems right at this latitude (Winterset day) and then get plunged back into winter with nothing else of note until late May or June. If we can get sufficient Gulf juice for an EF4 up here on March 5th, we can jolly well do it on April 15th.

I wonder if there's a little more heating today vs. initial forecast thinking over the past few days. Probably not enough to make a huge difference but could contribute to a higher impact event or two.

Seems there was already some pretty significant (probable) tornado damage in Springdale, AR.

Derechos come in two major forms, progressive and serial. You're probably thinking of a progressive derecho, which tend to consist of a single large (but usually somewhat more compact vs. a serial derecho) bow echo with an intense rear inflow jet and often a mesolow/wake low. A serial derecho is associated with a long, narrow squall line (several hundred miles N-S, say from the MS/OH River confluence down to the Gulf Coast) with multiple small bow echos/line-echo wave pattern signatures, and embedded mesovortices and/or supercells. Today's event is expected to be closer to the serial type.

I suppose if they think the threat of EF2+ QLCS tornadoes is great enough, they could go with a PDS tornado watch (would have verified on 12/15, lol) but it's unlikely IMO. They also seem to be thinking there could be a somewhat greater tornado threat with the later storms further south; they could decide that could warrant a PDS by virtue of its timing.

It depends on how things evolve tomorrow, but I'm thinking the threat of QLCS tornadoes will be substantial enough with the forecasted low-level wind profiles that they'll go with tornado watches.

I think I've yet to see a high risk solely for wind actually verify, in the sense of producing an outcome so exceptional and impactful that it seemed worthy of such an unusual forecast. The only ones that would meet that criteria IMO are the May 30-31, 1998 Great Lakes derecho and the August 2020 Iowa derecho; both of which maxed out at Moderate for the derecho itself (5/31/98 got a high risk in parts of NY/PA for tornadoes later in the day, after the initial derecho had weakened). Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

As I posted in Central/Western regarding next Wednesday, when we may (at least briefly) get into the warm sector of an intense surface low ahead of another one of those excessively amplified, meridional flow troughs: 00Z and 06Z GFS have rather paltry instability throughout the warm sector despite upper 50s dewpoints all the way to southern Wisconsin (equal to or greater moisture as the model was forecasting to reach this latitude on March 5th at this range). That's probably a factor of the sheer amount of convection the model breaks out.