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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    The trendy thing this season seems to be to throw out the ensembles unless the OPs are on board, when it always used to be vice versa. Seen it here and on S2K, quite possibly the same people.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    How's that 0/0/0 August looking, @ldub23?
  3. CheeselandSkies
    Surprise marginal risk with 5/5/2 probs. Wasn't even really expecting rain today. Forecasts issued yesterday were like "Partly sunny with a 20% chance of showers," well, that 20% just hit here. HRRR soundings for this evening look somewhat interesting in the state line region, but it doesn't really break out any supercells. I'll be in the area anyway since I was planning on heading to Illinois Railway Museum for Diesel Days today.
  4. CheeselandSkies
    Not really medium range yet and probably a mirage (August isn't known for it's high-predictability long range severe weather regimes) but SPC gives some hope, although I know @Chicago Storm is not a believer.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Three of the five Augusts going back to 2018 have been perhaps the most notable month of the warm season locally for severe and/or flooding, whether it be for a singular event (2020 derecho) or sustained activity levels over at least 1-2 weeks of the month. It appears this one won't be joining them, other than the headfake toward a significant flash flood event last weekend.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    Current state of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season:
  7. CheeselandSkies
    Yawn. Latest from MKX:
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Yeah, this was kind of sneaky.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    Surprise slight risk upgrade and severe thunderstorm warning here. Not much impact in MBY, though...but it was pretty.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    I'm guessing Powerball assumed that was tied to -NAO, as it usually seems to be a feature of such.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    Kinda tame for a -ENSO/-PDO spring/summer. I thought the table was set to deliver big time heat and/or severe (think 1995, 2008) but the atmosphere couldn't quite pull it off despite several opportunities; each setup had something screw it up.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    Storms firing up in SE MN/NE IA rolling east overnight. Severe weather not expected, but could get a nice light show when I'm heading in to work (or just get drenched) depending on timing.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    Finally got around to editing and uploading my video from my local storm chase on the 4th:
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Go00fus at 384...nice.
  15. CheeselandSkies
    Second round which rolled through around 2 AM was much more vigorous than the first; best middle-of-the-night lightning/thunder show I've had in a few years. Quite a few more wind reports around southern WI than with the first round, too.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    Tornado warning with that, although it was just cancelled. A couple of funnel cloud reports earlier, but velocities never looked that impressive.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    Well, HRRR was partially right, with a southeast-moving supercell splitting off from the tail end of the complex and moving through Rock/Walworth Counties around this time. It doesn't seem to be able to ingest enough unstable surface-based inflow for a threat, though.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Well, storms did fill in a bit and start to push south of due east across Dane County. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  19. CheeselandSkies
    We might barely see any rain out of this at this rate, let alone severe.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    With the activity that is occurring, looks like a possible mesovortex taking shape SE of La Farge, WI.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    20Z HRRR at hour 1 has a lot more, and stronger storms at 21Z than there actually are. Complex really seems to be having trouble filling in to the south of that cluster now east of La Crosse. Discrete cell that tried to get going in north-central Iowa appears to be dying as it approaches Calmar. More capping than expected?
  22. CheeselandSkies
    HRRR kinds of breaks up the complex just after it pushes through Madison and then has a couple of discrete supercells at 02Z. Weird.
  23. CheeselandSkies
    SE MN cluster has an interesting motion, on the radar loop it seems to be surging alternately SE and then almost due E.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    A member on another weather forum reporting issues receiving their confirmation e-mail when trying to join this one: https://talkweather.com/threads/weather-banter.184/page-16#post-77749
  25. CheeselandSkies
    Here we go: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1566.html
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