CheeselandSkies

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0536.html Cells firing in far southeast Iowa with another further north, just north of I-80 NE of Des Moines. Biggest is the one between Centerville and Bloomfield. No warnings out as of yet. Some hints of rotation already per KDVN radar, but glad I sat this one out as CAM idea of initiation close to/maturing and after dark seems to be holding true.

This is actually a remarkably Hortense-like track (both observed thus far, and forecast). Surprised I haven't really seen that name come up as a potential analog before. Also like that storm, Fiona took until past the Lesser Antilles to intensify to hurricane status.

Here we go: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1796.html Edit: Annnnnnnnnnd expired w/o watch being issued. Edit 2: Finally went out a few minutes later.

True.

That's what I've said the last few times we've had highs in the 80s in early April.

Honestly, if it was April through July or even August I'd be all over this. September Sundays are for watching football with a beer. Haven't even looked at a satellite loop (that wasn't of Fiona) today. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

1630 text does mention tornado threat is more conditional than thought at 13Z, but they kept the 10 hatched anyway.

We talk about the "I Curse" a lot, to a lesser extend the "M Curse" (Marilyn, Mitch, Matthew, Maria, Michael) but "F" names have also produced a lot of big ones going back to the mid-'90s. Fran, Floyd, Francis, Fabian, Florence...now perhaps Fiona?

Up to 10% hatched . Timing on CAMs is still mostly after dark, though.

HRRR pretty much drops everything interesting on the 00Z run...or so I thought. Then it fires supercells right at/after dark. Where's this setup in July?

18Z HRRR has a lot of nice supercells cranking across central to east-central IL at 00Z Monday. Too far south for me on a work night.

Big 5% tor over central IL now on 1730Z...written by Goss although first SWODY2 was Broyles. 12Z HRRR and 3KM NAM are worlds apart on timing and location of CI tomorrow afternoon/evening, so no help there as usual. That HRRR run also has southeastward-moving discrete supercells in west-central IL late into the night Sunday-Monday.

Only thing it's horrendous for is chasing.

Said Brent Musburger to Dan Fouts in The Waterboy: "We know, we know." (Can't find a YouTube clip of it that's not cut off and/or somebody shooting their TV screen with their phone)

The first part of my post was tongue-in-cheek directed at this sort of reply, which I knew was coming... I'm an unapologetic "big weather" weenie and I'm on these forums to see Mother Nature put on a show. No one of us has any control over whether storms happen or don't happen or where they go. The best anyone threatened by any hazardous weather (winter, tropical or land-based severe local) can do is prepare ahead of time (hurricane kit, tornado plan, etc), stay weather aware and have multiple ways to receive warnings, and take cover/evacuate as necessitated should one be issued for their area.

Meh. The usual disclaimer about never wishing death and destruction on people, yadda yadda... However, I'd be lying if I didn't say that guaranteed fish lose of some of their interest for me, even satellite-photogenic high-ACE ones like Sam from last year. It's the days of nail-biting as the models windshield-wiper from New York to Corpus Christi and back, the hype on the Weather Channel, Morgerman nerding out on social media and agonizing about where he's gonna go, etc.

Pattern of beautiful weekdays and rainy or at least overcast weekends continued over the holiday, and is forecast to continue this coming weekend. One of my main hobbies involves outdoor photography, and I like the sun to light up my subjects.

Peak season isn't one day. That's like picking one day in May statistically as the "peak" of tornado season, but in any given year the biggest outbreak is just as likely to happen a few days, or 2-3 weeks before or after (or in mid-December, lol). IMO peak hurricane season is August 20th through the end of September, with a watchful eye remaining on the Caribbean/Gulf through the end of October (Opal, Mitch, Wilma, Sandy, Michael). Back-to-back years the most significant storms, Joaquin and Matthew formed on 9/28. Maria hit PR on 9/20. I wasn't tracking the season closely in 2013 because I had a lot of stuff going on in A/S/O that year (move and new job) so it was more like at some point I went "Huh, haven't heard of any significant hurricanes going on in the Atlantic; I thought they predicted a busy season, guess they were wrong," but after this year I'm throwing in the towel on the utility of pre-season indicators/activity forecasts. Entertainment value only. Not that there couldn't still be a major hurricane or two, perhaps a significant, destructive one, in later September or October (just like some of those I mentioned above), but those expert forecasts explicitly called for an active August and/or a dangerous setup for long-tracking MDR cyclones (the creme de la creme, the Ivans, Irmas, etc).

RE: My post from 8/10, McCroskey is still huffing the glue with no sign of slowing down. 100% thought we'd have been/be tracking multiple MH or least strong, consistent, multi-model consensus signals of such by now when I made that.

Annoyingly, around here all the nicest days have come midweek (like today) with all the rain events on the weekends for most of August.

TD Five was declared at 0500 AST, so it really was a photo finish for August futility at least in terms of absolute TCG, although not named storms.

Of those, 1988 had Gilbert, 2001 Michelle, and 2002 Isidore. Can't think of any others off the top of my head. So I guess those are effectively "one storm seasons" if you're looking at only high-impact majors. 2001 though did end up with nine hurricanes including four majors, so there's definitely still life left in the season. Although, if you're looking for a definitive "switch flip" within the next week or so, you'd like to see a more consistent signal from the models. Already appears as though they oversold 91L's potential early on, who's to say the next "modelcane" or two, or three that pop up won't go the same way?

I jumped on board the futility train when 91L's prospects to become even a CONUS MH landfall tease, let alone bona fide threat, took a nosedive. At this point it's like that 1/2" duster that spoils a would-be record measurable snowfall drought in a weak winter season (with extra salt in the wound because all the indicators were for an epically snowy one). Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

I think it just has to do with where the strongest storms in this setup initiated/tracked.

Out-of-nowhere Enhanced RIsk for northern Illinois. Day 3 outlook issued on Saturday had the area in a 5% (Marginal Risk).