CryHavoc

Surprised there isn't a thread on this already. This has the makings of a pretty serious early season outbreak, with an extremely vigorous trough digging into the Midwest starting early next week. Some of the ingredients are already lining up, models look like there is adequate consensus, moisture return looks incredibly rich. I've seen estimates for the low as far down as 985mb. That D7 is probably the largest 15% contour for a full week out I've ever seen, although some of the early model runs look like D6/Tuesday might be the main event. Ominous setup either way. Still plenty of time to bust, but I wouldn't bet money on this one going without some notable sigsvr action.

S&R is still ongoing as well.

Absolutely catastrophic damage on the News 9 stream right now.

Robust hooks already showing on radar.

Devin PItts chasing.

First PDS watch is now active.

That might be the largest d5 30% I've ever seen.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0329.html

Look at this beast!

Ominous wording from the SPC. I would guess the Day 1 issuance will stay MDT at this juncture. Seems to be enough questions around the timing and shear to make a high risk somewhat unlikely.

Wow

Checking in. Over 14 inches of rain have fallen here in the past week. We had some thunder, lightning, and even some mesos forming over the bay area today. Had two rounds of pea sized hail here. Flooding is a major concern in many areas, thankfully my locality is in good shape.

Latest forecast disco is out: Next message to convey is resiliency as this will not be a "one and done" storm. Details are still hard to pinpoint but resounding message is several more storms look to be lined up for this weekend, into next week and towards MLK weekend. The cumulative effect of these storms could be quite debilitating. At this time we expect Friday to be a relative break in the storms day. (i.e. dry). Next storm looks to arrive Saturday into Sunday and it does look to have AR characteristics with high moisture plume. Current timing would bring a break later Sunday into early Monday with yet another moderate to strong AR possible later Monday into Tuesday of next week followed by a brief break and another system towards the end of next week. Of course timing and details will change but the theme remains the same. A storm train of systems looks to march across the Pacific and impact much of NorCal through at least next week and possibly through MLK weekend. It's noted that the operational gfs runs out through Jan 19th show precip chances. ___ All bay area residents are being advised to prep for evacuation, even for areas that are not flood/ff prone. It's hard not to be worried given the strength of these systems. Give me comparatively tiny tornadoes any day to these behemoth systems that just dump inordinate amounts of water everywhere for days and days at a time.

The national weather service for the bay area just released the most recent disco, and they're using some... Concerning language. >To put it simply, this will likely be one of the most impactful systems on a widespread scale that this meteorologist has seen in a long while. The impacts will include widespread flooding, roads washing out, hillside collapsing, trees down (potentially full groves), widespread power outages, immediate disruption to commerce, and the worst of all, likely loss of human life. This is truly a brutal system that we are looking at and needs to be taken seriously.