Cheeznado

Maybe the best winter elevated t-storm I have seen here in 36 years. A ton of close CG strikes. This happens in the Plains a lot but very rare here.

I know anything other than frozen precip gets crickets on this group, but check out these 15 day precip totals for Blairsville, GA from the 06Z GEFS. Could be epic flooding.....

This forum should be renamed American Winter Weather- it is amazing how posts dry up almost completely once the threat of snow/ice is over. I love snow as much as the next person but am interested in all types of weather....

I disagree, GEFS, EPS have been very consistent with at least 5" for the whole event. Would be extremely surprised if ATL only got an inch. .

Since winter is probably over here, the focus turns to heavy rain, check out some of these GEFS totals here- could be historic flooding if we really get 10-13" of rain like some of the members have.....

Looks like a better chance of thunderstorms and even some severe weather in the south next week than snow......

Over in AL no reports of accumulation to speak of, HRRR and 3km NAM have no snow here at all....BUST! I say let's go directly to severe weather season. This could easily be the first year in a long time where there was not even one flake of snow IMBY.

Based on a pretty unified EPS and GEFS consensus of a western trough and SE ridge after this week, and given the fact that since 1930 there have only been five 1" or greater snow events in Atlanta past Feb 15, I am close to saying wait till next year here for snow after the Tues. event.

00Z NAM and 3KM both have basically no accumulations in Atlanta but the 21Z SREF amounts went up a bit. So not changing my .5-1" forecast yet but I will say that since all models have at least some sunshine by Tuesday afternoon the chance of any major road problems in the metro have decreased.

Now that the shutdown is over, any word on when the FV3 will replace the GFS?

18Z FV3 has .8 in Atlanta. Models now very consistent.

This NWS map seems reasonable. 15Z SREF and 12Z EPS are .5-1" for Atlanta. New NAM a bit over 1.

Jan 95 had some post frontal snow in Atlanta.....

Models have backed off, only 2 SREF members over 1" in ATL, 3KM NAM not impressed. LOL that earlier NAM....

No way a post frontal downsloping situation will ever produce that much snow.