
Cheeznado
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About Cheeznado

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Atlanta, GA
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Sleeting here.
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Holy schmoley that GEFS- 3.7" here? I doubt it but that increases the odds of at least a bit of accumulation in the ATL area. In any even I plan to drive to the NW somewhere even if we get not that much in my backyard. EDIT:SREF is also on the at least some accumulation bandwagon. This is for the airport.
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Despite the poor trend of the latest Op GFS, the ensembles hold out some hope for snow here. Lets wait to see what the Euro does before sticking a fork in the chances.
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You go have to give the GFS points for consistency with measurable snow in north GA including Atlanta -let's just hope the Euro starts trending stronger/slower. The short wave in question is still in the Pacific so until that comes onshore in 36 hours or so we will still not know much.
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Puerto Cabezas is a hair north of 14 degrees latitude, so unless this jogs more north they may be spared the worst.
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I realize that, but there have been some recent issues with planes turning around etc so keeping my fingers crossed.
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Too bad the current recon plane left, hopefully another one will get in there before landfall.
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Wow, 26 ft seas just south of the mouth of the MS...
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Big question is how much strength it loses as it will spend a fair amount over the Yucatan, both the HWRF and HMON have it back down to a TS and never really bring it back to a hurricane.
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Last recon center reformed farther to the south closer to being underneath the deep convection. Also the Euro track is weaker and farther west than most of the other models.
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My take: something develops in the central Caribbean in about 5-7 days, strength unknown, with a very good chance it goes east of FL and the rest of the US coast.
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Both the HWRF and HMON have it too strong by 15-20 mb by 00Z. Do not see any signs of RI right now so by later tonight that discrepancy may get larger.
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Cheeznado started following ECMWF now free!
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https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2020/ecmwf-moves-towards-policy-open-data?fbclid=IwAR0k2inU85oBvrB1W-R1KdcYKUH7W-n8FcE0vNTL_tGnTqnoEGEmbt1WuRU I hope a lot of the model sites take advantage of this. If so, I will not be using my pay service anymore since the Euro data is the main reason I paid any money.
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I agree this does not look anything like a borderline cat 5 on the sat pic. Odd storm.
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I think think the RI has paused for at least a little while based on the last few fixes and the fact the eye has not gotten any clearer. This is a very small storm compared to Gilbert and Wilma which may be a factor for now.