Cheeznado

Radar estimates borne out by gauges- up to nearly 12"

I said iffy, that is still very possible but there are some caveats. EDIT: well, now there is a burst of convection near the center. So who knows.

Center completely exposed, the latest HRRR has it too strong right now and even with that it weakens it to 40kts at landfall. So even the big flood type scenario is looking iffy right now.

4.6" here total so far, about what I was expecting.

New Euro stalls it on the lower TX coast, then moves it NE to the LA coast. This is similar to what the GEFS is hinting at. That would be a trip...

It's too far north in the very short term- at 18Z has it at 29.6N, its only at about 29.2 right now.

At least this is more symmetrical than previously, maybe a partial eyewall segment with lightning now in the SW quad.

Pressure falling, better look on radar. so the HWRF forecast of about 967mb and close to cat 2 at landfall are not that far fetched IMO. Regardless still a pretty bad surge and a ton of rainfall. Some record flood stages already being forecast by the NWS.

Euro is initialized too weak and too far south. I do not buy it at all.

This bout of RI may have paused for a bit, lass center pass shows about the same pressure and still no evidence of strong winds on the S and SW side of the storm. Also no real sign of a eye on sat pics. Thinking cat 2, maybe low end 3 at landfall as the next round of faster intensification resumes later tonight and tomorrow.

12Z GFS pretty weak. I still think it will become a hurricane but cat 2 at the most.

It will be interesting to see if this is just a model burp but all the intensity guidance models are much weaker now which also goes along with the 3 major globals, GFS, Euro and UKMET.

12Z HWRF

12Z HWRF has it up just south of Mobile at either strong TS or weak cat 1 but then weakens it as it looks like westerly shear will become a problem as per the latest GFS.

A Central America hit in any case....