Cheeznado

Sleeting here.

Holy schmoley that GEFS- 3.7" here? I doubt it but that increases the odds of at least a bit of accumulation in the ATL area. In any even I plan to drive to the NW somewhere even if we get not that much in my backyard. EDIT:SREF is also on the at least some accumulation bandwagon. This is for the airport.

Despite the poor trend of the latest Op GFS, the ensembles hold out some hope for snow here. Lets wait to see what the Euro does before sticking a fork in the chances.

You go have to give the GFS points for consistency with measurable snow in north GA including Atlanta -let's just hope the Euro starts trending stronger/slower. The short wave in question is still in the Pacific so until that comes onshore in 36 hours or so we will still not know much.

Puerto Cabezas is a hair north of 14 degrees latitude, so unless this jogs more north they may be spared the worst.

I realize that, but there have been some recent issues with planes turning around etc so keeping my fingers crossed.

Too bad the current recon plane left, hopefully another one will get in there before landfall.

Wow, 26 ft seas just south of the mouth of the MS...

Big question is how much strength it loses as it will spend a fair amount over the Yucatan, both the HWRF and HMON have it back down to a TS and never really bring it back to a hurricane.

Last recon center reformed farther to the south closer to being underneath the deep convection. Also the Euro track is weaker and farther west than most of the other models.

My take: something develops in the central Caribbean in about 5-7 days, strength unknown, with a very good chance it goes east of FL and the rest of the US coast.

Both the HWRF and HMON have it too strong by 15-20 mb by 00Z. Do not see any signs of RI right now so by later tonight that discrepancy may get larger.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2020/ecmwf-moves-towards-policy-open-data?fbclid=IwAR0k2inU85oBvrB1W-R1KdcYKUH7W-n8FcE0vNTL_tGnTqnoEGEmbt1WuRU I hope a lot of the model sites take advantage of this. If so, I will not be using my pay service anymore since the Euro data is the main reason I paid any money.

I agree this does not look anything like a borderline cat 5 on the sat pic. Odd storm.

I think think the RI has paused for at least a little while based on the last few fixes and the fact the eye has not gotten any clearer. This is a very small storm compared to Gilbert and Wilma which may be a factor for now.