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About Cheeznado

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    Atlanta, GA

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  1. 3KM NAM obviously the odd CAM out. What impresses me are the forecast incredibly high 0-1KM SRH values of AOA 500. That is at the level of the 2011 superoutbreak. Not saying this will be as bad, but still impressive.
  2. By the time the event was 24-36 hours out the parameters were much less ominous than the ones for tomorrow.
  3. Speechless. Hope not too many people die tomorrow.
  4. I think there is not one shred of a doubt that this this two day event was a colossal bust. (A good thing) This is NOT dissing SPC by any means, although at the time I was somewhat skeptical of the high risk upgrade. On Wednesday from what I can see of the damage reports, there was not one long track or violent tornado, and those were specifically mentioned in the watches and outlooks. Severe forecasting is hard, even for the experts at SPC.
  5. I chased a really great supercell in Central Alabama yesterday west and SW of Selma. Best SE storm structure I have seen in my 41 years here. Go to https://www.facebook.com/cheeznadophoto
  6. I agree also, UH tracks with relatively low-topped supercells can be misleading, Leaving shortly for my target of Meridian, MS to Tuscaloosa.
  7. This NAM sounding from the KTCL area is about as textbook for tornadoes as you can get.
  8. I have been looking at this for a few days now, will probably be my first storm chase in over a year.
  9. Holy schmoley that GEFS- 3.7" here? I doubt it but that increases the odds of at least a bit of accumulation in the ATL area. In any even I plan to drive to the NW somewhere even if we get not that much in my backyard. EDIT:SREF is also on the at least some accumulation bandwagon. This is for the airport.
  10. Despite the poor trend of the latest Op GFS, the ensembles hold out some hope for snow here. Lets wait to see what the Euro does before sticking a fork in the chances.
  11. You go have to give the GFS points for consistency with measurable snow in north GA including Atlanta -let's just hope the Euro starts trending stronger/slower. The short wave in question is still in the Pacific so until that comes onshore in 36 hours or so we will still not know much.
  12. I realize that, but there have been some recent issues with planes turning around etc so keeping my fingers crossed.
  13. Too bad the current recon plane left, hopefully another one will get in there before landfall.
  14. Wow, 26 ft seas just south of the mouth of the MS...
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