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About Derecho!

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    Arlington, VA

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  1. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    The last Vortex is in with max SFMR of 138 kts.
  2. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Screen shots really don't show much but gray. Car is clearly floating and spinning around.
  3. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Looks like one last VDM from recon coming.
  4. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    As one would expect Apalachicola tide guage skyrocketing. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8728690&units=standard&bdate=20181005&edate=20181010&timezone=LST/LDT&datum=MLLW&interval=6&action=
  5. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I specified N and E eyewall. Obviously will get W Eyewall. But has major surge implications.
  6. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Josh just tweeted - staying in Panama City.
  7. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    So now looks like Panama City is not getting N or E eyewall so that is a major bullet dodged. The thing that is interesting is the dynamics of the blowout of the bays and when that starts - does Tyndall AFB get massively flooded from the bay side?
  8. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Any bets on if/when KEVX radar is toast?
  9. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Further NE is going to increase the Tallahassee wind damage, however. I'd trade a massive surge at Panama City for that, but Tallahassee Metro has a population of 380,000.
  10. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Sort of a weird skim into the eye - extrap 944.4 mb
  11. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    The 12Z model run initialization comes from NHC but is not posted on the NHC page. It's about 99% reliable on upgrades at the next advisory. I think I remember it not matching something like once in the last 15 years. http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2018/al142018/
  12. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    It's overwhelmingly wind pile up; in an extremely strong hurricane the low pressure is perhaps a foot. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/surge_intro.pdf
  13. Current tropical cyclone track forecast accuracy is, in my opinion, one of the greatest achievements of humanity. I am continuously astonished at how good it is now and how much it's constantly improved.
  14. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Florence

    Not to be a broken record, but the accuracy of the CMC is so poor for tropical track forecasting I can't fathom why it gets discussed (other than easy viewing availabilty and early run times). There is a reason the CMC isn't included in the consensus models. It would make them LESS accurate UKMET has much more usefulness but hardly gets mentioned (it's much more in the EC than the GFS camp).