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About Derecho!

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  1. People are extraordinarily mistaken if they think Dorian has blown straight through some Formula one Hairpin Turn that "the models" said it was supposed to do an hour ago.
  2. So you need to carefully look at the time scales of the official forecast and models. It basically grinds to a halt and doesn't start turning for TWO days.
  3. All of the models outside of the clustering around the official track are basically worthless except for the AVNI (which is the GFS) and the Op GFS is an outlier to its own ensembles (AEMI) which suggests it's not to be taken seriously in this case. One reason I really hate spaghetti maps going to the public (I've even seen UNLABED spaghett maps which is an abomination).
  4. Well, the main thing is I think you need to start evacuating La Plata now so it's empty by tomorrow afternoon...
  5. A little odd they haven't started tornado warnings again on the Foard City cell.
  6. Wow, incredibly strong couplet just appeared on a new storm in a few scans in southern Missouri south of the previous cell.
  7. Another area of rotation has formed SW of Vicksburg more on a path to the city itself. Storm seems complicated though. Edit: Has suddenly gotten really strong. This is not good.
  8. The last Vortex is in with max SFMR of 138 kts.
  9. Screen shots really don't show much but gray. Car is clearly floating and spinning around.
  10. Looks like one last VDM from recon coming.
  11. As one would expect Apalachicola tide guage skyrocketing.
  12. I specified N and E eyewall. Obviously will get W Eyewall. But has major surge implications.
  13. Josh just tweeted - staying in Panama City.
  14. So now looks like Panama City is not getting N or E eyewall so that is a major bullet dodged. The thing that is interesting is the dynamics of the blowout of the bays and when that starts - does Tyndall AFB get massively flooded from the bay side?