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About Derecho!

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    Arlington, VA

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  1. Well, the main thing is I think you need to start evacuating La Plata now so it's empty by tomorrow afternoon...
  2. Derecho!

    MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

    A little odd they haven't started tornado warnings again on the Foard City cell.
  3. Derecho!

    April 29-May 1 Severe Weather

    Wow, incredibly strong couplet just appeared on a new storm in a few scans in southern Missouri south of the previous cell.
  4. Derecho!

    April 13th-14th Severe Threat

    Another area of rotation has formed SW of Vicksburg more on a path to the city itself. Storm seems complicated though. Edit: Has suddenly gotten really strong. This is not good.
  5. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    The last Vortex is in with max SFMR of 138 kts.
  6. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Screen shots really don't show much but gray. Car is clearly floating and spinning around.
  7. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Looks like one last VDM from recon coming.
  8. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    As one would expect Apalachicola tide guage skyrocketing. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8728690&units=standard&bdate=20181005&edate=20181010&timezone=LST/LDT&datum=MLLW&interval=6&action=
  9. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I specified N and E eyewall. Obviously will get W Eyewall. But has major surge implications.
  10. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Josh just tweeted - staying in Panama City.
  11. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    So now looks like Panama City is not getting N or E eyewall so that is a major bullet dodged. The thing that is interesting is the dynamics of the blowout of the bays and when that starts - does Tyndall AFB get massively flooded from the bay side?
  12. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Any bets on if/when KEVX radar is toast?
  13. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Further NE is going to increase the Tallahassee wind damage, however. I'd trade a massive surge at Panama City for that, but Tallahassee Metro has a population of 380,000.
  14. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Sort of a weird skim into the eye - extrap 944.4 mb
  15. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    The 12Z model run initialization comes from NHC but is not posted on the NHC page. It's about 99% reliable on upgrades at the next advisory. I think I remember it not matching something like once in the last 15 years. http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2018/al142018/