Derecho!

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  1. No, not at all. In other basins extremely powerful tropical cyclones occur closer to the equator than Eta. Haiyan was 4 degrees closer to the equator than Eta, for example. And even the development thing is a myth - the Atlantic is the oddball basin in having so little development close to the equator - and that's because the ITCZ is so far north in the Atlantic during tropical season not a "lack of Coriolis."
  2. OP GFS now hits Nantucket, Cape Cod, and Northeast tip of Maine at 950 mb.
  3. Para looks like it ends up in Texas.
  4. Of course it's possible. TCs have done all sorts of insane things - stalls, loops, zigs, etc.
  5. I suspect over a period of thousands of years this is a very common track, it had just been rare very recently.
  6. 6z HWRF has a very large hurricane with a large circulation coming ashore. Likely a Cat 2 intensity-wise at landfall, but after having reached 939 mb in the central GOM. If that verifies, the surge impacts are going to be brutal. Yeah, my fear is basically that it Ivans itself, and then windspeed reduction right before landfall doesn't really matter. I have tried to read a few papers on it but the cause and constraints of TC wind radius and it's changes seem...mysterious to me. Obviously affected by surrounding background pressure, size of originating disturbance, eyewall replacement ycles, etc. As a side note, despite all the storms none Annular this year in the Atlantic, correct?
  7. I have him and ldub on ignore, but unfortunately I still see people stupidly replying to them. It's sort of embarassing how threads here can be totally dominated by out-and-out trolls.
  8. Honestly I just wonder if the land passage just doesn't end up causing the wind field to expand when it restrengthens in the GOM causing much more of a surge threat down the road.
  9. Heh...HWRF is down to 935 MB in about 7 hours from now.
  10. I actually sort of checked out of the Laura threads right after landfall and missed discussion on why its surge was less than forecast... But given enough forward speed, weakening on the shelf waters shouldn't lower the surge from Delta nearly as much as the winds, of course, presuming it's a fairly large storm with a large fetch.
  11. INVEST 91 has been initiated for the Western Caribbean.. http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2020/al912020/
  12. There's a huge difference between Western and Eastern Gulf during W Carib Season. Western is Dead. the threat is essentially to the Gulf coast of Florida.
  13. Yeah, good thing Nova Scotia and Newfoundland are completely uninhabited.
  14. Ends up barely not coming ashore in S TX and then heads NE to hit Louisiana on the ECMWF.
  15. So INVEST 90L (Bay of Campeche) has been initiated.