Derecho!

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  1. For whatever reason there are a lot of people who consistently are a month off in their perception of a normal Atlantic tropical season peak. It's September 10th, not August 10th.
  2. THE NAM IS WORTHLESS FOR TROPICAL. Train yourself to just not look at it. I know the temptation is enormous because it comes out earliest. The Canadian is largely worthless as well, but again it's fairly easy to find output. UKMET is vastly, vastly better than the Canadian but gets less attention because of more difficulty for public to view.
  3. Just say no to even mentioning the NAM in tropical threads.
  4. No, it isn't. A 14 year old with full access to model output would easily outforecast the entire staff of the NHC locked in a room without access to forecast models at pretty much any forecast time you care to name.
  5. Only way to get a really strong hit is hook from south due to SST profiles, though
  6. Looks like something getting significant heading for Gadsden AL
  7. Warning and a circulation suddenly forming W of Galesburg IL.
  8. Next warning issued but did seem awfully slow to come out given storm motion.
  9. KAIX live stream complaining that the new tornado warning to the NE hasn't been issued yet.
  10. Unbelievable Live Traffic cam video of Jonesboro Tornado on Weather Channel right now Went from a rope to a wedge in 25 seconds.
  11. People are extraordinarily mistaken if they think Dorian has blown straight through some Formula one Hairpin Turn that "the models" said it was supposed to do an hour ago.
  12. So you need to carefully look at the time scales of the official forecast and models. It basically grinds to a halt and doesn't start turning for TWO days.
  13. All of the models outside of the clustering around the official track are basically worthless except for the AVNI (which is the GFS) and the Op GFS is an outlier to its own ensembles (AEMI) which suggests it's not to be taken seriously in this case. One reason I really hate spaghetti maps going to the public (I've even seen UNLABED spaghett maps which is an abomination).
  14. Well, the main thing is I think you need to start evacuating La Plata now so it's empty by tomorrow afternoon...