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About Derecho!

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    Arlington, VA

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  1. Derecho!

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    People are extraordinarily mistaken if they think Dorian has blown straight through some Formula one Hairpin Turn that "the models" said it was supposed to do an hour ago.
  2. Derecho!

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    So you need to carefully look at the time scales of the official forecast and models. It basically grinds to a halt and doesn't start turning for TWO days.
  3. Derecho!

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    And the wishcasting begins. Sigh.
  4. Derecho!

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    All of the models outside of the clustering around the official track are basically worthless except for the AVNI (which is the GFS) and the Op GFS is an outlier to its own ensembles (AEMI) which suggests it's not to be taken seriously in this case. One reason I really hate spaghetti maps going to the public (I've even seen UNLABED spaghett maps which is an abomination).
  5. Well, the main thing is I think you need to start evacuating La Plata now so it's empty by tomorrow afternoon...
  6. Derecho!

    MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

    A little odd they haven't started tornado warnings again on the Foard City cell.
  7. Derecho!

    April 29-May 1 Severe Weather

    Wow, incredibly strong couplet just appeared on a new storm in a few scans in southern Missouri south of the previous cell.
  8. Derecho!

    April 13th-14th Severe Threat

    Another area of rotation has formed SW of Vicksburg more on a path to the city itself. Storm seems complicated though. Edit: Has suddenly gotten really strong. This is not good.
  9. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    The last Vortex is in with max SFMR of 138 kts.
  10. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Screen shots really don't show much but gray. Car is clearly floating and spinning around.
  11. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Looks like one last VDM from recon coming.
  12. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    As one would expect Apalachicola tide guage skyrocketing. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8728690&units=standard&bdate=20181005&edate=20181010&timezone=LST/LDT&datum=MLLW&interval=6&action=
  13. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I specified N and E eyewall. Obviously will get W Eyewall. But has major surge implications.
  14. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Josh just tweeted - staying in Panama City.
  15. Derecho!

    Major Hurricane Michael

    So now looks like Panama City is not getting N or E eyewall so that is a major bullet dodged. The thing that is interesting is the dynamics of the blowout of the bays and when that starts - does Tyndall AFB get massively flooded from the bay side?