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504AM update on Friday (24 hours after initial issuance). Withdrew from the title INDIRECT. --- 333PM Friday about 33 hours after issuance. Changed title to Moderate - MAJOR impacts, tags changed from tropical weather to hurricane gusts, heavy rain changed to flooding rains, RC and CF remain as they were It is becoming more apparent via modeling through the 12z/20 cycle, tho follow NHC, that this storm wants to turn northwest and make landfall anywhere between Block Island to Sandy Hook. Where and intensity? IFFFF Henri still passes east of Montauk, that will be fortunate for LI/CT. Follow NHC, and updated collaborated models and experienced statistical output of Tropical verification. Strongest gusts and largest waves & storm surge should be east of the center on the Atlantic side of the the storm, but beware all the east and northeast facing inlets LI Sound. RC obviously dangerous, and possibly even for experienced surfers. SHOULD BE ZERO casualties due to RC and high Surf. There is enough info out there now that asks us be smart about living safely. Wind: potential from a combination of squall gusts 40 (to possibly ~ 65kt) and preceding heavy rains near and east of the center track, to uproot and snap fully leaved trees, with 'potential' for long duration power outages. Therefore east of the center track, charge your phones, have fuel ready for generators (outdoor exhaust only) and maybe rent a couple of movies since along and east of the center internet connectivity may be lost. TOR (s): maybe? mainly northeast quad of Henri Sunday morning. Rainfall: Looks like 3" near and west of the center of passage, but pockets of surprise amounts elsewhere in the interior? Max by Tuesday in the lingering weakened remnant state??? Maybe isolated 10" somewhere??? Coastal Flooding: dependent on timing with the high of the tide cycles this weekend. This will be a pretty big storm, with varying impacts. Worthy of monitoring updates and being cautious about outdoor activity late Saturday-Sunday. ---- Below from Thursday 5AMish 8/19/21 Follow NHC and NWS collaborated guidance on the path and impacts of Henri upon our NYC subforum. Astronomiically higher than normal tides combined with some onshore flow and building seas should result in pockets of significant coastal coastal flooding this weekend. Presuming the direct path of Henri remains e of LI, we are probably spared a tide cycle of major coastal flooding. Vulnerable regions to typical minor coastal flooding should monitor NWS statements for an event that may be larger than the typical minor events encountered through the year Rip Current: Appears to me difficult to avoid the risk of dangerous rip currents this weekend. What might be good for surfers as exposed Atlantic shores coastal waves build to 6 feet, will be life threatening for most, if not all swimmers. Follow NWS and local official guidance including that of life guards. Heavy rain: The combination of a trough(s) extending northwest of Henri and PWAT nearing 2" again, may develop pockets of intense slow moving showers well northwest of Henri's passage. There could be isolated 3" amounts in our NYC subforum. Henri winds: 34 KT gusts probably remain east of our subforum but follow NHC guidance. 19/457AM
Good Thursday morning, Decided to start a combined topic covering Saturday night, Sunday afternoon and the uncertain impact of ISAIAS this coming Monday-Tuesday. ISAIAS has track uncertainties until everything gets re-organized Friday. Thereafter, I think the EPS/GEFS should nail whether or not tropical storm conditions can impact the coasts. Follow NHC guidance and the contributions from American Weather tropical experts. One reason for uncertainty; I see multiple 00z/30 ensembles showing the northern bounds of heavy rainfall not too far north of our NYC forum which suggests, at this distant date, that a hard right turn of ISAIAS could yet occur that would spare us more than a dangerous rip current situation. In other words, we're on the gradient of substantial rainfall impact. Big forecast busts tend to occur in the ensemble gradients, buying in too early to one set of solutions or another. So dangerous rip currents are my first primary concern for Monday-Wednesday, especially Long Island. Southerly swells should gradually build over the western Atlantic into early next week. Presuming the NHC 5AM Thursday track is reasonable, surge and wind field risks on the western side of ISAIAS are minimal but if the track shifts to where a portion of our area is on the eastern side of the TC, then those risks would significantly increase. My secondary primary concern is isolated 7" rainfall from the necessary combined events of Saturday nights WAA (warm frontal) event, Sunday afternoons possible isolated severe nw NJ/se NYS westward into ne PA, and then finally either a PRE, or a direct impact of ISAIAS Monday-Tuesday. I'm more concerned about Predecessor Rainfall event rather than direct ISAIAS impact. The 7" rainfall in my estimation would probably have to occur west of the I95 corridor due to the ensembles probable combined Sat night-Sunday afternoon events depositing biggest amounts somewhere near the western edge of our forum coverage (~Sussex-Orange Counties?). If Sat night-Sunday does not occur (1-3" combined event band somewhere in that area), then a PRE or ISAIAS hit would have to do all the work by itself and at this time, this is far too uncertain. So to get to 7", it's a lot easier if we see sizable rainfall Sat night-Sunday. There is still a chance not much happens here next Monday-Tuesday-it's in the envelope of possibilities. (See the 06z/30 GFS run). Let's see what happens. I'll be particularly interested in PRE comments. 733A/30