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Derecho!

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  1. Derecho!
    Takeway is that it is not feasible from a cost perspective to build high-rises in areas such as this that could survive a storm such as this without massive damage, that people would actually want to live in (given the point of a high-rise on the beach is the view).
  2. Derecho!
    Eh, it's a Snow Weenie perspective, where consensus models don't exist and it's some sort of titanic picking-sides model fight.
  3. Derecho!
    ? There are Six (CT, MA, 4 in Maine).
  4. Derecho!
    Think about and ECMWF model run predicting a tornedo outbreak. The air pressure within an individual tornedo might be 850 mb; when you look at the model run you aren't going to see any 850 mb pressures within actual tornadoes - tornadoes are far tinier than the 9 km grid spacing of the ECMWF.
  5. Derecho!
    Was already explained to you earlier in the thread. Global models lack the resolution (and it's worse the less sophisticated they are, like the GEM) to deal with the pressure differentials across small distances from a tropical cyclone. Would break the model with a true pressure init.
  6. Derecho!
    Global models have never done this - they don't have the resolution to deal with the inner structure of a hurricane such as this. Storm-specific high resolution models such as HMON, HAFS, do have that ability.
  7. Derecho!
    The main differences between the last two GFSes is speed; 12Z is slower.
  8. Derecho!
    Loops back into the Gulf (never intensifies) and wanders over New Orleans at HR 222.
  9. Derecho!
    Last NOAA Dropsonde is labeled "SE Eyewall"
  10. Derecho!
    Having been to the Salton Sea a few years ago: 1) everything near it on the North, West, and East sides has been abandoned so there's nothing to destroy. Very flat area so even minor increases in lake level will radically increase side 2) The problem is the Imperial Valley to the immediate South; this is below sea level and is one of the most important agricultural areas in the country and fairly densely populated. I could imagine a vast area being flooded with moderately salty water which would be pretty disastrous. Remember the Gulf of California used to extend all the way to the Salton Sea fairly recently in geologic time. It was cut off by the Colorado River Delta sediments.
  11. Derecho!
    I realize no one reads anything but regional forums anymore but ECMWF just opened up a lot more data for free: posted on the main forum.
  12. Derecho!
    https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2022/ecmwf-makes-wide-range-data-openly-available Always found it odd how restrictive they were
  13. Derecho!
    For the love of God, the NAM shouldn't even be mentioned, much less have maps posted. You know less about a tropical system forecast after looking at the NAM than you did before. It's literally negative (value) information.
  14. Derecho!
    it is so wierd the Philly board doesnt even have a SVR thread. And they would have 100 times the posts for a quarter inch of flurries than a PDS tornado.
  15. Derecho!
    Is that even warned yet?
  16. Derecho!
    1993 Storm of the Century I was in New Jersey. I could JUMP UP AND DOWN on the ice without breaking through to the snow.
  17. Derecho!
    There seems to be a belief that starting a storm thread is a jinx.
  18. Derecho!
    A worse and more dangerous atrocity is something I routinely see on social media - for hurricanes "Spaghetti Model" maps that have UNLABLED tracks and show every "model" (to include the extrapolated track, and ancient, obsolete models not actually used like LBAR, etc). It of course shows a wide spray and is typically accompanied by "LOL nobody knows where it is going could hit anywhere" comments. Of course the 6-7 models that actually matter are now routinely on top of each other, even out to 5 days, and TC track forecasting has gotten incredibly accurate. but these maps show 50 unlabeled "model" lines all the same color.
  19. Derecho!
    Because the benefits are so high (if there is one, crowing press release about how they are better than the NWS and called it well ahead of time ) and the downside so low (if there isn't one, basically a handful of people on this board or like them even notice or care).
  20. Derecho!
    Actually began with tropical weenies imagining hurricanes making un-forecast turns towards them.
  21. Derecho!
    No, not at all. In other basins extremely powerful tropical cyclones occur closer to the equator than Eta. Haiyan was 4 degrees closer to the equator than Eta, for example. And even the development thing is a myth - the Atlantic is the oddball basin in having so little development close to the equator - and that's because the ITCZ is so far north in the Atlantic during tropical season not a "lack of Coriolis."
  22. Derecho!
    OP GFS now hits Nantucket, Cape Cod, and Northeast tip of Maine at 950 mb.
  23. Derecho!
    Para looks like it ends up in Texas.
  24. Derecho!
    Of course it's possible. TCs have done all sorts of insane things - stalls, loops, zigs, etc.
  25. Derecho!
    I suspect over a period of thousands of years this is a very common track, it had just been rare very recently.
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