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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    00Z and 06Z GFS have rather paltry instability throughout the warm sector despite upper 50s dewpoints all the way to southern Wisconsin (equal to or greater moisture as the model was forecasting to reach this latitude on March 5th at this range). That's probably a factor of the sheer amount of convection the model breaks out. This trough appears to have some of the same issues as the last one, mainly very meridional (SSW to even southerly or SSE) 500mb flow which is parallel to the initiating boundary (cold front) which often makes for a messy convective mode in which it's hard to get long-lived, discrete tornadic supercells. That said, there will probably be significant severe weather somewhere as with the last system.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    Much needed...hope it verifies. As bad as the western drought is, the further east it extends is even worse for chaseable weather.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    Well obviously a vastly different type of damage, so it's hard to make a fair comparison. Katrina submerged the whole neighborhood in water for days on end, so all the houses were still standing but filled with mold and uninhabitable. Tornado levels everything in a small area.
  4. CheeselandSkies
    ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL GRIMES...CENTRAL MADISON AND NORTHWESTERN WALKER COUNTIES... At 932 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Madisonville, moving northeast at 40 mph.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    If somebody ever resurrects the "Tornado Video Classics" video series (although there's so much footage taken now, it'd be a beast to sort out the best), this needs to be in it. Reminds of one that was in one of the original installments, taken from a helicopter as a multi-vortex tornado ripped trees out of the ground and hurled them through the air.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    KGRK not destroyed per photo relayed on twitter by @andyhb, but data not accessible.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    Saw my first robin(s, 2 actually) of spring 2022 today. A couple weeks earlier than some recent years.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Moderate risk for TX incoming.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    Houston area got several significant tornadoes (including an F4 and an F3 each with a path length of at least 30 miles) early on in the multi-day outbreak of November 1992.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    SPC mentioned that as a possible limiting factor in their discussion at 13Z. Probably why they haven't gone 15% hatched MDT for tornadoes yet, given how ominous some of the HRRR sim ref/UH maps have been.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    Latest NAM gets us up to 68 Monday in the warm sector of a surface low near the Twin Cities. Seems like there ought to be some storms/severe weather chances with a pattern like that, but dewpoints are in the low 40s. Going to have to armchair chase Texas.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    The modeled environments looked pretty ominous at one point (at least on the GFS, and it was pretty consistent with that for quite a few runs) but have downtrended a bit as the event gets closer and I wouldn't say support a high risk type setup at this juncture. Not to say they couldn't trend back in the other direction.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    Been so focused on the forecasts for the nice weather yesterday and the wintry mix/potential snow for tomorrow, I completely forgot it was supposed to rain today.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    From MKX: Love it. This is spring. Not this dry and boring crap we have had most of the last few years.
  15. CheeselandSkies
    As noted many times, GFS has sucked all winter especially with southern stream snow threats, but I thought it did pretty well over quite a long lead time with the general timing and placement of the March 5th severe event as well as the one coming up for this Friday (although obviously not good for crucial details like 0-3KM cape that are critical for event magnitude). Of course, I wasn't really comparing it to the Euro or other models, so it's possible they did equally well, or better.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    Maybe just me, but I'd call the day the EF4 hits the "Sayonara, winter" day...
  17. CheeselandSkies
    I think I heard this story once before, although the date on the article is current. So did Casey just abandon it on some random Kansas farm and the owner didn't notice for 10 years?
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Early March slight risk in Iowa with $4 gas and we get a conga line... maybe I'll sit this year out after all. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  19. CheeselandSkies
    Gettin' salty in here. Somebody was overzealous treating the roads...as usual.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    You'd think one of these years I'd learn to throw climo out the window and just pay attention to the damn 3km CAPE map. Even so, sounds like it was a tough chase for most and with few exceptions, the best/clearest footage of the tornadoes came from local yahoos who had way too close calls.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    Yesterday/last night was the desperately needed salt-washer that we never really got all of March and April last year. Problem is, it's going to snow again.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    Strong tornadoes to 4" of snow in less than 60 hours...welcome to March.
  23. CheeselandSkies
    Seven, there was one fatality in the Chariton tornado as well.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    Six fatalities in Winterset tornado and one in Chariton per WHO-13.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    Not under a warning, but quite gusty here as the line moves in. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
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