CheeselandSkies

That's funny that has snow over southern Wisconsin....MBY forecast from NWS has dry and mild (relatively speaking) through next weekend.

Say what? RE: Wanda, of COURSE a fish STS would form right at the end of Oct. and ensure, should a Caribbean beast ever actually form this fall, it will have an auxiliary list name.

51/35 forecast for Saturday. Can't complain for November in Wisconsin, especially considering two years ago we had snow before Halloween.

Ugh. Was hoping it would stay mild through next weekend for my wedding on 11/6. Oh well, we knew when we scheduled that date we couldn't count on good weather.

Peak color has seemed about 2-3 weeks delayed this year, likely a combo of mild early-mid Oct. and antecedent drought.

Eh? Nina is supposed to favor the Atlantic, and in particular the western basin in October (although not always, see 2017).

Gee, thanks. Then I'll stop posting and let this place become a ghost town.

6z GFS pops a PDS TOR sounding over north-central IL at hour 207.

Meh, threat (such as it is) shifted too far away to be of interest for me. On the initial day 2 outlook the 2% covered most of the southern 1/2 of WI.

Possible LEWP-embedded tornado coming up US 56 toward Copeland, Montezuma, Ensign, and possibly Dodge City, KS. This event striking or at least threatening all the towns I hit on my complete bust of a two-day chase trip this past May (I sat in Clinton, OK for a few hours the afternoon of the 27th, then eventually made my way to Watonga).

Another thing of note, the supercells of the day have been moving on the southeastern reaches of the Enhanced risk zone (southern/Frederick-Snyder one is now actually within the Slight). The western band of storms has only just started to push into the Moderate/15% hatch zone.

One interesting thing is; it seems that one concern going into this event based off some of the forecast discussions was that storm motion was expected to be quite fast (50 MPH or more). However, these supercells have only been moving 20-25 MPH according to the warning statements. Obviously a good thing from a public/chaser safety standpoint especially with it being after dark, but I'm curious as to the cause of the discrepancy. Usually in my experience, when forecast storm speeds bust, they bust low (storms move faster than anticipated).

Crazy RFD winds on Tom Pastrano's stream on KWTV. He was way too close to the path for in the dark.

This might be the most impressive tornado signature I've seen on Frederick radar since Elmer-Tipton 2015 (I wasn't really paying attention during Mangum 2019 since I was too busy trying not to rear-end the chaser in front of me).

Surprised no reports/TORR-type warnings with the way that couplet looked earlier, has to be a horde of chasers on it so if anything happened it would have been seen. *TOR warning dropped, there's another one in far NE CO but the storm is linear. Going to go right over Clinton, where I sat for a few hours on the afternoon of 5/27 (a miserable bust). *Edit: New TOR warning near Sharon Springs, KS. Also linear but looks like it has potential. *Edit 2: Ninja'd by @OhioWX

Of course we'll see how it unfolds, but where was this in western Kansas on 5/26?

Rinse/repeat yesterday, tomorrow?

System almost looks like a TC on satellite. Clearing is confined to a narrow corridor E-W, but storms should be moving almost due northward. Clearing starting to nose into areas near/east of Keokuk, IA. Edit: 15Z HRRR has the mother lode tracking through eastern Lee/western DeKalb Counties (IL) around 20Z. Confirms my hunch attm that Rochelle is as good a jumping off point as any.

There was a tornado warning up in the arrowhead of MN too, before the OK event even initiated.

I'll be staying local, although latest HRRR is less than encouraging for S. WI. May head down to roughly I-88 corridor/Rochelle and hang out. Worked for me on 8/9, shoulda done it on 4/9/15.

Couplet hasn't looked super tight yet.

Based on wind profiles in forecast soundings and associated CAM output, if chasing tomorrow be prepared for cells to be moving northward or perhaps even NNW. Not something one usually looks for unless a TC is involved.

New tornado warning covers an awful lot of real estate. Storm speed increasing with each warning statement. Edit: Dot of enhanced reflectivity at the tip of the hook in the 2319Z KFDR scan. Not sure if it's a legit debris ball, though. CC is inconclusive. Edit #2: Gone on next scan.