CheeselandSkies

HWRF is all discombobulated its *two* forecast MH landfalls on SE Florida failed to materialize and now it just doesn't know what to do. *Although in all seriousness, given the way the HWRF over-reacts to favorable conditions, is it possible that it also at times over-reacts to unfavorable or at least sub-optimal conditions, such as a certain amount of PVS-induced shear?

(Looks at that triple point in SE SD/SW MN on 18Z NAM) This really is quite an impressive-looking shortwave especially for the time of year, you wonder why we can't get setups like this in May and June but I'll take it.

Right front relative to motion of the center, so would be northwest in the case of a westward-moving landfall. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

I WISH it was Day 5...Friday's threat looks like it might be just a tad too far west for an after-work chase for me. Edit: Yep, 12Z NAM has some juicy soundings at 00Z Saturday in southeastern SD. Might have to see about begging off early if it holds.

Doubtful, not like we needed one with the 8/7-8/11 sequence.

As much as I love storms/local chase opportunities, even I needed a break after last Saturday through Wednesday! Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

So tomorrow is now down to a marginal risk? *Checks archives* Yep, that was the day they put a Day 4 area out for on Tuesday. Why do they even bother during summer MCS season?

Beautiful, but very tough to chase in except for a small area* which is manageable. Once you get into the Wisconsin River Valley, in northern Iowa/Sauk/Grant/Crawford Counties, fugheddaboutit. Mad I probably could have gotten that tornado had I left for the storm about 20 minutes earlier, when I first thought it was starting to look interesting, but again, figured it would collapse (like it ultimately ended up doing) and really didn't want to get suckered further from home after what had already been a letdown of a day. At least from the point where I realized the storm was dying, I was like 20 minutes from home. *Most of Dane County is relatively decent, except for the far southwest corner (which of course is where yesterday's storm tracked into just before it collapsed) and the immediate Madison vicinity where you have all the usual problems with metro chasing. Green/Rock, southern Columbia, Dodge, Jefferson and western Walworth Counties are OK terrain-wise, but southeastern Rock County into Walworth County the road network is really bad. Once you get into the Lake Geneva area, it's really bad trees lining the roads again. The rural parts of the far southeastern counties are OK, but you have limited space before you run into the metro areas of Milwaukee/Racine/Kenosha and then of course the big lake. As I said basically anything along the Wisconsin River and the Driftless Area is horrible, which of course is where most of the best storms (including Boscobel) during this sequence have been. The only significant tornado, to my knowledge, to track through that relatively small area of manageable chase terrain in recent decades is the Stoughton tornado of August, 2005.

Red Toyota Corolla, had my phone on a dash mount running an app that lets me stream live video back to the Madison TV station I work for (when there's sufficient data coverage, which is spotty in that area, heck even basic voice is for me on US Cellular).

It hit the stable air/stronger cap. Guessing you probably passed me/I passed you several times on County A near Daleyville?

Argh, I probably could have seen this had I started going for the storm as soon as I took note of it, but I really didn't expect it to do anything and didn't want to backtrack further from home after making a big loop back from the Lake Delton area after an aborted attempt to get to the early cells to the north. I had of course just left Mt. Horeb eastbound for home and had to spin a frantic uie on 151. Hauled butt to Hollandale where it still had a neat looking rain free base with RFD cut but quickly died after that. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Storm near Mineral Point looks momentarily interesting on radar. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Sitting in Mt. Horeb, WI waiting on this severe warned mess. How anticlimactic after the seeming rapid ramp up in potential late this morning. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Also in awful terrain. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

As I feared, these storms are doing their thing in the worst terrain possible. Add Sauk County's awful twisting, winding road network to that misery as that severe-warned cell continues east. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

With more storms firing up to the S. What other August day does this remind you of? Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

As in the city in Green County, not Monroe County, correct? Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

I'm heading out the door, will probably head to Portage first and evaluate from there.

Don't know when was the last time Wisconsin was in a tornado watch with the tornado probabilities in the "high" category. OTOH, it is a fairly large watch.

Getting that feeling. Only concern is best storm mode will be in worst terrain (similar to Saturday). Fairly typical.

Ofc HRRR wants to track the strongest simulated cell along the Wisconsin River Valley at the Iowa/Sauk county line.

15Z HRRR shows the large CAPE hole from the IL MCS and seems to initialize with it on sim reflectivity much better than previous runs...we'll see where it goes from here.

I figured as much, the question is what will that boundary do when it hits the front and will that airmass be able to recover? Sometimes these organized cold pools can screw things up even with clearing (case in point 6/22/15 which was supposed to be a WI event from Day 3 but ended up in IL as far as ).

Eastern Iowa clearing, except for what appears to be another storm blowing up in the far SE corner. Look like some sort of boundary flying northward on a collision course with the NE-SW oriented one (the front?) in west-central WI/SE MN.