CheeselandSkies

With all the talk about how active/favorable it was supposed to be, the lack of a >40 ACE (landfalls or no) Sam/Irma/Ivan-quality system that had us waking up to a gorgeous stadium eye for days on end really stood out like a sore thumb in September 2020. Teddy tried but couldn't quite get on that level. For a while it looked like 2021 was going to go the same route with the very similar Larry being the best the MDR/CV could muster until Sam came in late to save the day.

If you've read the last three Day 4-8 outlooks, you can tell Broyles is champing at the bit to add a threat area for sometime over this coming weekend. The other forecasters had to take away his crayons.

That 500mb height pattern would be gorgeous in May. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

...and that's not even a happy hour run!

La Nina, brah. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Lucky (or unlucky depending on your point of view) this pattern isn't already in place, with Sam churning across the Atlantic.

It already achieved technical RI once from a TD to a high-end TS in less than 24 hours. I've noticed (with Michael, Ida and a few others in recent years) that these TCs which become high-end majors (AOA 120kt) tend to do so in two bursts, with a 12-24 hour leveling off in between.

I always found it an interesting stroke of "luck" that the CONUS had two Cat 4+ landfalls in the span of four years, each of which at the time was the costliest U.S. hurricane (Hugo and Andrew), in what was supposedly a "down" period of activity (you also had Bob in there as well, and Iniki in the Pacific). Then the U.S. went 12 years without a major (100kt+) hurricane landfall during an "up" period, after the assault of Charley, Francis, Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma from 2004-'05. Now we seem to be in another burst of activity, with Harvey, Irma, Michael, Laura and Ida from 2017 onwards (not to mention numerous weaker hurricanes and tropical storms in that timespan).

One of the better model wars between the Euro and GFS we've seen in some time; with most recent Atlantic TCs they've either mostly been in lockstep apart from subtle differences (as with storms like Ida) or both been garbage. Both sticking to their respective guns thus far...

This year's list has been good for memes/pop culture references, especially recently. You had Peter (Griffin)/Peter Rose Peter & Rose dissipating (Petered out/Rose..bud) There's also a locomotive in The Railway Series/Thomas the Tank Engine & Friends named "Peter Sam."

I'm surprised it's beating the "south=weaker" drum, since the more southerly track will put 18/Sam through the warmest possible water in front of it.

Peter vs. the shear:

Yep. West side as well.

@madwx Coming right at us.

All warnings south of northern Sauk dropped for now, we'll see what those segments in Grant/Iowa/Lafayette do.

Gadzoiks. ...up in the woods, par for the course.

Back to 5% in an early-release 20Z, but only for portions of the north woods.

Still way better than me at severe weather forecasting (I should hope so because they get paid to do it), but even I find myself scratching my head at more and more of their calls in recent years. When and why did they go so far downhill? Just anecdotally (not looking at any actual verification stats, which will probably prove me wrong, lol), seems like they were better in the 2000s/early 2010s despite the advances in modeling that have been made since then.

....annnnnnd back down to 2% at 1630. SPC giving me whiplash.

Up to 5% tor at the 13Z. This strong FROPA was on my radar (so to speak) at longer ranges but I admit I kind of tuned it out once it got into Day 4-8 range and SPC said the strongest winds aloft and support for ascent would lag behind the warm sector. I haven't looked at any models myself yet so I can't say if that's changed in some fashion or if they're just hedging their bets.

Surprise slight risk cropped up this morning, although I don't have high expectations for it.

Too bad it's going to be a closed low with the strong flow aloft lagging the warm sector (per SPC).

1995-96 and then again '98-'99 were really the only years like that. Up through 1994 were inactive years save the lone standout cyclones in certain years (Bob, Andrew). 1995 also didn't really have any significant U.S. landfall threats from Cape Verde hurricanes, with Luis and Marilyn striking the LAs before recurving and only home-grown Opal making U.S. landfall at 100kt+. 1996 had Bertha, Edouard, Fran and Hortense. 1997 was quiet, 1998 had Bonnie, Danielle and Georges, as well as quick recurvers Ivan and Jeanne (the second-to-last use of those names!), the infamous Mitch being a Caribbean brew. 1999 had Cindy, Floyd and Gert.

Well this season may not be playing out exactly like us weenies had anticipated, but just like last season, just about everything is making landfall, most of it in the CONUS.