CheeselandSkies

Good. If there's an SSW now it'll be BN through mid-May.

That's a perfect surface pattern...for May.

Well, that graphic he posted is through the end of the run (240 hrs) so taking the pain right through to the end of January.

Never fails. Again, every winter since I've been active on here it's barely snowed until the last 1/3 of January, yet we get an extended period of bleeding-knuckles temps.

So where's that pattern change? Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

I remember discussing the "clipper train" of late Jan./early Feb. 2019 on here (thread started by @Hoosier ). I believe it was only thanks to a discussion this winter that I finally know what "DAB" means, back then I interpreted it as "a little dab of snow," but didn't understand why it was capitalized.

Yes, I remember '07-'08, '09-'10, and '10-'11 all being quite active winters in the upper Midwest. '08-'09 I don't remember as well although I seem to recall there were some light snow events around Thanksgiving 2008. '07-'08 I was still going to college in Green Bay although I returned to stay with family in the Madison area for winter break; it was probably the most active wall-to-wall winter in my adult memory even including the thaw and outbreak in early January. It was 2008, 2010 and the first half of 2011 that gave me the impression that La Ninas are very active for both winter and . Then the dry, scorching and dull 2012 happened, and most of the Nina patterns since 2017 have also had long stretches of mind-numbingly quiescent periods for both types of weather punctuated by occasional diamonds in the rough. I wasn't a huge fan of 2013-'14 either, although it was undeniably very wintry. The sustained deep cold and frequent "nuisance" (1-3") snowfalls got to me, since it was my first winter at my current job with a 3 AM start time; an apartment with outdoor parking and a puny electric heating unit which had to run 24/7 for over six weeks straight just to keep my apartment bearable, sending my power bills through the roof.

1" measured at Westby, WI. Cassville in SW Grant County getting a decent thumping over the last few hours per their live webcam.

Here goes...central-western IA/northern Plains peeps enjoy. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0066.html

Looking back through my photos, this is the third straight winter season to feature much below normal accumulating snowfall for much of the S WI/N IL/E IA region prior to mid-January (or if there was any of consequence such as late October 2019, it melted off before Christmas). 2018-19 wasn't stellar either, although it had a nice storm on New Year's Eve (more impressive than 2021's, at least for MBY but it likewise melted within a few days) and 2017 only pulled off a technical white Christmas at Dane County Regional with a quick just-over-an-inch on Christmas Eve. Come to think of it, that's all the winter seasons since I've been an active poster on this forum. Maybe I'm the curse.

WAD>CAD.

The Bermuda Triangle of Snow.

Sure, and let's do it with nearly bare ground while we're at it.

Preview of me going in to work at 3 AM tomorrow:

Madison riding the gradient even with a NW-SE oriented system. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Fell from a "high" in the upper 20s at 1 AM to 10 degrees on a stiff northwest wind, expected to "rebound" to 15 degrees this afternoon. Serious question for the promets on here: What exactly is causing this pattern of whipsawing temperatures every 36~ish hours with little to no precipitation/storm events to show for it? Is it a case of the pattern being too active for its own good, so every FROPA is moisture-starved? Are the cold air pushes too suppressive, so no real cyclogenesis can occur?

Wouldn't that be Mayim, now? Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Again, for all the times he has busted bullish especially on the longer-range (Day 2+) outlooks...

12Z GFS gives Madison 6"(Kuchera) through the end of the run, while big sections of VA/northern NC get 36"-42".

According to 6Z GFS 10:1 we get 1.5" from now through 06Z 1/22. At 43° N.

2019 tried (Dayton day), and a little thing called Rochelle happened in 2015. But yeah other than that, not much of note in this region.

...when it will be cold rain followed by instant flip to WAD. Our outbreaks, if they happen, will come on random mesoscale accident days in July and August.

Normally I'd go home on my 7:30 AM "lunch" break at work. Not today.

Temps look to be on a roller coaster for the foreseeable future in our forecast from MKX. Every day of low 30s is immediately followed by a day of teens or single digits with lows below 0. @madwx Edit: @Chicago Storm alluded to it in the short/medium range discussion thread, as well.