CheeselandSkies

The area where the warned storm was was even cut out of the marginal risk at 1630Z. Unexpected to say the least.

Heavy rain shower coming up through Green County did a passable impression of a tornadic supercell on reflectivity. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Well congrats to those of you in IL/IN/MI who got in on some big action in this pattern, but as for me...

Not so for WI. Just had a few random weak spin-ups on the 24th in the Northwoods.

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL LIVINGSTON COUNTY... At 756 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Howell, moving east at 25 mph. An additional thunderstorm capable of producing a tronado was located northwest of Pinckney. At the moment the southern signature near Pinckney heading towards Brighton looks far more impressive, could just be proximity to DTX radar though.

From MKX's afternoon AFD: Good to know they think just like me.

Looks like no hope for clearing around here.

Location of warm front and triple point tomorrow evening would suggest threat for my backyard, but models seem to keep better parameters shunted south roughly along the same latitude where they were today. Will re-evaluate in the morning. Edit: HRRR seems to have a secondary triple point (possible mesolow?) south of the Quad Cities late tomorrow afternoon which effectively "intercepts" the best parameters south of the main low over northeastern Iowa. Surface winds are a little veered in between the two.

So, still baking in the interior Northwest.

Meanwhile a sneaky marginal risk has popped up for us tomorrow with talk of a later upgrade possible, on yesterday's Day 3 outlook it just clipped the far southeast corner of Wisconsin.

00Z HRRR slashes 48-hour total for Madison from 2" at 12Z to 0.2." Narrow jackpot stripe of nearly 6" still runs from Sauk through northern Columbia, far southeast Marquette, and into Green Lake/western Fond du Lac Counties.

I'd have about a 3.5-4 hour drive just to get to the edge of the 2%. No thanks.

That's yesterday's.

The patchwork nature of the bigger totals over Iowa/northern Illinois and Wisconsin from this sequence will make for some stark divides between green/brown grass and winners/losers among farmers. Certainly not what we were expecting/hoping for just a few days ago for areas north/west of the gravy train which now looks to be from eastern Kansas through central MO/IL/IN and then northeast across NW OH/SE lower MI and into Ontario.

HRRR now shows us getting an additional 2" from now through 12Z Sunday (and up to nearly 6" in Sauk County, they always seem to get doused in these setups, with devastating flooding in 2008 and 2018). @cyclone77 is in the screw zone from SE IA through NW IL, though.

Interesting tidbit from SPC at the bottom of today's 13Z outlook: I'm glad they started putting this type of thing in there. A common mistake people make (and I used to make) when looking at those probability maps is to take them to mean that everywhere within that percentage zone has equal chances of seeing that type of severe weather threat, therefore in terms of chase targeting "one spot is as good as another."

That had to have been an extremely rare set of circumstances, it's almost unheard of in this part of the country apart from that one event. Dixie once in a while, but here by that time of night any discrete supercells have either died off due to boundary layer decoupling or upscale growth into an MCS/QLCS has occurred.

Smells and feels a like a tropical rainforest outside right now with a very fine/atomized rain falling. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

One pre-NEXRAD era event that I wish I could go back and look at on modern Doppler radar is the June 1984 Barneveld, WI F5 which struck around midnight. As we've seen, nocturnal significant tornado events in June occur from time to time in the upper Midwest, including this recent DuPage County tornado and the Wisconsin outbreak from June 2014. However, in those two the tornadoes were produced by a QLCS and the intensity max was low-end EF3. I'd be curious to see whether the Barneveld tornado was an exceptionally violent QLCS tornado, or came from a discrete, classic supercell that somehow managed to persist that late at night.

So the raw numbers may not be unprecedented, but I suspect that sort of longevity is.

That cluster late this morning (which killed instability around here for later) mostly missed Madison just to the north. Now getting missed to the north and south:

Rather prolific lightning on this cell coming towards me. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Slight risk expanded some across southern WI at 13Z, I'm now solidly in the 15/15/2.

MCS up north of Stevens Point will miss us to the north/east, one in Iowa will miss to the southwest.

18Z models seem less supportive of a chase-worthy severe weather threat within my range either tomorrow or Friday afternoon. Sigh.