CheeselandSkies

SPC has been pretty low-key with this, never outlining an area beyond Day 3, and just a 15% slight risk now that it is Day 3. Broyles must be on vacation...that or they're gun-shy after all the 11th hour failures of seemingly slam-dunk outbreaks in recent years (although mostly the ones west and north of Dixie).

Monday Night Increasing clouds, with a low around 8. Wind chill values between -5 and zero. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 21. Wind chill values between zero and 10. West wind around 5 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Hurry up, torch...

Strangely our wind is ripping out of the northwest here yet we're still at 50. I'm sorry, but it should never be 50°F at 43°N in December without a major tornado outbreak happening somewhere.

We need precip, I don't really care what form it takes at the moment however that will become more important later. The Midwest has been flirting with if not solidly in drought for most of 2021, and the surest way to set the table for a bad one is a dry winter lacking the usual snowpack melt-off in the spring (see: 2011-12).

Today is the eighth anniversary of the November 17, 2013 tornado outbreak. Numerous long-track and intense tornadoes raked across mostly Illinois and Indiana, with widespread wind damage extending throughout MI, OH, WV and PA. The most significant was the deadly Washington, IL EF4. I remember stepping outside to go to work at 3 AM and knowing something was going to happen because the air felt darn near like a tropical rain forest, in Wisconsin, in late November. A few warnings were issued in southern Wisconsin, although we escaped significant impacts. It was the first live severe weather coverage I was involved in here at the local TV station where I work.

So looking good for the wedding after all. No sign of that 20" snow for Monday on the GFS from a few days ago, either.

Please God no, that's the day I'll be trying to fly out for my honeymoon. Edit: Madison forecast from NWS is sunny and 59 for Monday...shows how much credit they give the GFS at this range.

That's funny that has snow over southern Wisconsin....MBY forecast from NWS has dry and mild (relatively speaking) through next weekend.

Say what? RE: Wanda, of COURSE a fish STS would form right at the end of Oct. and ensure, should a Caribbean beast ever actually form this fall, it will have an auxiliary list name.

51/35 forecast for Saturday. Can't complain for November in Wisconsin, especially considering two years ago we had snow before Halloween.

Ugh. Was hoping it would stay mild through next weekend for my wedding on 11/6. Oh well, we knew when we scheduled that date we couldn't count on good weather.

Peak color has seemed about 2-3 weeks delayed this year, likely a combo of mild early-mid Oct. and antecedent drought.

Eh? Nina is supposed to favor the Atlantic, and in particular the western basin in October (although not always, see 2017).

Gee, thanks. Then I'll stop posting and let this place become a ghost town.

6z GFS pops a PDS TOR sounding over north-central IL at hour 207.

Meh, threat (such as it is) shifted too far away to be of interest for me. On the initial day 2 outlook the 2% covered most of the southern 1/2 of WI.

Possible LEWP-embedded tornado coming up US 56 toward Copeland, Montezuma, Ensign, and possibly Dodge City, KS. This event striking or at least threatening all the towns I hit on my complete bust of a two-day chase trip this past May (I sat in Clinton, OK for a few hours the afternoon of the 27th, then eventually made my way to Watonga).

Another thing of note, the supercells of the day have been moving on the southeastern reaches of the Enhanced risk zone (southern/Frederick-Snyder one is now actually within the Slight). The western band of storms has only just started to push into the Moderate/15% hatch zone.

One interesting thing is; it seems that one concern going into this event based off some of the forecast discussions was that storm motion was expected to be quite fast (50 MPH or more). However, these supercells have only been moving 20-25 MPH according to the warning statements. Obviously a good thing from a public/chaser safety standpoint especially with it being after dark, but I'm curious as to the cause of the discrepancy. Usually in my experience, when forecast storm speeds bust, they bust low (storms move faster than anticipated).

Crazy RFD winds on Tom Pastrano's stream on KWTV. He was way too close to the path for in the dark.

This might be the most impressive tornado signature I've seen on Frederick radar since Elmer-Tipton 2015 (I wasn't really paying attention during Mangum 2019 since I was too busy trying not to rear-end the chaser in front of me).

Surprised no reports/TORR-type warnings with the way that couplet looked earlier, has to be a horde of chasers on it so if anything happened it would have been seen. *TOR warning dropped, there's another one in far NE CO but the storm is linear. Going to go right over Clinton, where I sat for a few hours on the afternoon of 5/27 (a miserable bust). *Edit: New TOR warning near Sharon Springs, KS. Also linear but looks like it has potential. *Edit 2: Ninja'd by @OhioWX

Of course we'll see how it unfolds, but where was this in western Kansas on 5/26?