CheeselandSkies

Semi blown over at Fremont, NE per photo shown on that KETV stream.

What month is it again? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2030.html

Tornado tracked north of West Point, NE around 12-15 minutes ago, pronounced TDS and couplet. Heading towards Winnebago/Homer where I reached the former Pilger cell just in time to watch it die.

Wasn't Rochelle also pegged right at 200 MPH?

After the initial few, haven't seen any clear TDS' on radar for a while. Of course, storms of interest are currently about equidistant between Hastings and Omaha NEXRAD, with the 0.5 tilt hitting above 4,000'. That says these tornadoes, if they are on the ground, aren't lofting debris particularly high. At least, not like what was seen last Friday night (to be expected). However, I wonder if that might also be due in part to the environmental straight-line winds being so strong that they are scattering the debris before it can rise in a relatively concentrated area that would be picked up by the radar. Edit: Very possible TDS over Columbus, NE on the 2105 UTC scan, but NWS didn't pick up on it (no TORR). Edit 2: Apparently a TORR did go out, but my GR Level 3 didn't display it in real time. It shows up now when I play the loop back.

Tornado warned cells within NE line screaming northeast, will threaten the Pilger/Wisner/Stanton area. I can't look at those towns on the GR Level 3 map without feeling a little stab of pain for botching that chase in 2014.

I noticed that in the HRRR forecast soundings from this morning.

Even so...I just stood on my porch in a T-shirt, on December 15th, and felt only slightly chilly thanks to the wind. Clouds flying south to north.

Report of 80-90 MPH winds estimated by emergency manager at Giltner, NE just popped up on my GR Level 3. Looked like a TDS went over them.

TDS just went over Doniphan, NE.

>70dbz reflectivity returns in the line near Hastings...on December 15th.

Wow. I passed through there on my busted storm chase on May 26th. Glad I am not there now.

It's beginning to look a lot like...April. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2027.html

As an aside, my employer once had a meteorologist with the surname Waterman. He was super stoked to end up in your town on a storm chase back in June of 2016.

Interestingly, HRRR soundings show some SBCINH ahead of the line of convection as it crosses the Mississippi this evening...but it doesn't kill it off. A case of frontal forcing/dynamics strong enough? Still, may be a limiting factor on gust intensity and tornado production.

Ah. I was focused on the moderate/enhanced.

Doesn't appear SPC made any substantial changes to probability outlines at 1630.

Socked in with fog/low stratus here in Madison. Vis sat appears to show some thinning/clearing over much of Iowa. Not that insolation is a major factor this time of year but any that does happen will only help the thermos overperform more. Might also allow the synoptic winds to mix down more.

Updraft helicity greater than 75 m2/s2, the same product I was referencing in my previous post.

Been a while since I saw a setup where the 3KM NAM sim ref/UH product was more bullish than the HRRR with implied supercell/tornado potential. 12Z HRRR has a solid, narrow line of convection tied to the front with little UH >75. 12Z 3KM NAM for western IA at 12 hrs OTOH...

You're probably thinking of January 2008, same event that had the famous train vs. tornado video from near Harvard, IL.

Tomorrow's system is of the type that could create a substantial regional tornado outbreak if it were April with a wide open Gulf (thinking here of a certain date in 1965). Of course, these days that's always when a winter pattern decides to finally set in.

We'll see...keeping my eye on it.

MKX mentions 55 MPH gusts possible Wed. night in my point forecast. We're not even close to the expected corridor of highest winds, either. @madwx @DanLarsen34 @notsoencrypted I'm actually considering a drive to Iowa Wednesday afternoon to chase synoptic wind, lol. Although that would make the drive home...interesting.

"NO! I WON'T SETTLE DOWN! NOT THIS TIME! I FEEL LIKE...IT'S NEVER GONNA SNOW!"