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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
  2. CheeselandSkies
    Crazy RFD winds on Tom Pastrano's stream on KWTV. He was way too close to the path for in the dark.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    This might be the most impressive tornado signature I've seen on Frederick radar since Elmer-Tipton 2015 (I wasn't really paying attention during Mangum 2019 since I was too busy trying not to rear-end the chaser in front of me).
  4. CheeselandSkies
    Surprised no reports/TORR-type warnings with the way that couplet looked earlier, has to be a horde of chasers on it so if anything happened it would have been seen. *TOR warning dropped, there's another one in far NE CO but the storm is linear. Going to go right over Clinton, where I sat for a few hours on the afternoon of 5/27 (a miserable bust). *Edit: New TOR warning near Sharon Springs, KS. Also linear but looks like it has potential. *Edit 2: Ninja'd by @OhioWX
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Of course we'll see how it unfolds, but where was this in western Kansas on 5/26?
  6. CheeselandSkies
    Rinse/repeat yesterday, tomorrow?
  7. CheeselandSkies
    System almost looks like a TC on satellite. Clearing is confined to a narrow corridor E-W, but storms should be moving almost due northward. Clearing starting to nose into areas near/east of Keokuk, IA. Edit: 15Z HRRR has the mother lode tracking through eastern Lee/western DeKalb Counties (IL) around 20Z. Confirms my hunch attm that Rochelle is as good a jumping off point as any.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    There was a tornado warning up in the arrowhead of MN too, before the OK event even initiated.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    I'll be staying local, although latest HRRR is less than encouraging for S. WI. May head down to roughly I-88 corridor/Rochelle and hang out. Worked for me on 8/9, shoulda done it on 4/9/15.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    Couplet hasn't looked super tight yet.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    Based on wind profiles in forecast soundings and associated CAM output, if chasing tomorrow be prepared for cells to be moving northward or perhaps even NNW. Not something one usually looks for unless a TC is involved.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    New tornado warning covers an awful lot of real estate. Storm speed increasing with each warning statement. Edit: Dot of enhanced reflectivity at the tip of the hook in the 2319Z KFDR scan. Not sure if it's a legit debris ball, though. CC is inconclusive. Edit #2: Gone on next scan.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    75 dbz reflectivity in the core of that tor-warned cell in OK. Don't see that too often.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    May is overrated, Aug./Oct. are where it's at.
  15. CheeselandSkies
    Looking at the models yesterday, the instability/EHI values weren't too impressive anywhere except Michigan.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    He has a bit of a reputation among enthusiasts/chasers for being overly bullish on severe/particularly tornado potential compared to what actually ends up happening, especially at longer ranges. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  17. CheeselandSkies
    Global models suggest a period of western troughing coming up that would be gorgeous in May...as it is might still see some "second season" severe weather events in the central CONUS as per the 4-8 although mode/potential chase quality TBD.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Oh no he di-n't! https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
  19. CheeselandSkies
    With all the talk about how active/favorable it was supposed to be, the lack of a >40 ACE (landfalls or no) Sam/Irma/Ivan-quality system that had us waking up to a gorgeous stadium eye for days on end really stood out like a sore thumb in September 2020. Teddy tried but couldn't quite get on that level. For a while it looked like 2021 was going to go the same route with the very similar Larry being the best the MDR/CV could muster until Sam came in late to save the day.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    If you've read the last three Day 4-8 outlooks, you can tell Broyles is champing at the bit to add a threat area for sometime over this coming weekend. The other forecasters had to take away his crayons.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    That 500mb height pattern would be gorgeous in May. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  22. CheeselandSkies
    ...and that's not even a happy hour run!
  23. CheeselandSkies
    La Nina, brah. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  24. CheeselandSkies
    Lucky (or unlucky depending on your point of view) this pattern isn't already in place, with Sam churning across the Atlantic.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    It already achieved technical RI once from a TD to a high-end TS in less than 24 hours. I've noticed (with Michael, Ida and a few others in recent years) that these TCs which become high-end majors (AOA 120kt) tend to do so in two bursts, with a 12-24 hour leveling off in between.
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