CheeselandSkies

I love hurricanes but...hard pass.

@ldub23went awfully quiet all of a sudden...

Of course, the minute I write off that sort of potential for the day and stop paying attention. Western one has the usual problem of being in awful terrain. It momentarily had a "flying eagle" reflectivity signature, but doesn't look quite as good on the most recent scan. I've also noticed RadarScope's color scale really overcooks the velocities compared to GR Level 3. Could see a brief touchdown out of one of these, perhaps something similar to what happened near Mineral Point on the 11th.

This one will be blowing up phones: Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL 310 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021 IAC019-055-061-242045- /O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-210824T2045Z/ Buchanan IA-Dubuque IA-Delaware IA- 310 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN BUCHANAN...NORTHWESTERN DUBUQUE AND DELAWARE COUNTIES... At 309 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Strawberry Point to near Dundee to Masonville, moving east at 45 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR northeast Buchanan and northern Deleware county! HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. These severe storms will be near... Manchester and Edgewood around 320 PM CDT. Other locations in the path of these severe thunderstorms include Delhi, Greeley, Delaware, Oneida, Earlville, Colesburg, Dyersville, New Vienna, Worthington, Epworth, Farley, Holy Cross, Luxemburg and Bankston. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant property damage. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 4267 9088 4241 9087 4235 9111 4240 9180 4253 9176 4264 9175 4265 9090 4267 9090 TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 277DEG 40KT 4265 9157 4252 9158 4245 9160 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

Looks like Cedar Rapids gonna get screwed again, not that they need any more damaging winds. New warning just issued including northern Linn has the "considerable" damage threat tag. Meanwhile, bunch of little rumblers popping up and rolling over me.

SPC's 1630 update in so many words: "We don't know what's going to happen."

Clear outflow boundary percolating southward through eastern Iowa with strong heating either side of it.

They don't seem real gung-ho on any potential, but something to keep an eye on at least. These August days can be sneaky as we've seen.

@hawkeye_wx @cyclone77 I was in eastern Iowa yesterday (I-80 corridor vicinity just west of the QC, took US 61 through Maquoketa/Dubuque to/from) and it struck me how much drier everything looked compared to south-central WI.

She's beauty, she's Grace, she'll throw a tree in your face.

12Z UKMET with the ultimate weenie run.

The way the trough has evolved on modeling it's almost TOO negatively tilted, resulting in rather meridional 500mb flow, which seems to mostly lag behind the warm sector. Sunday apparently is now also of interest across the same general area.

HWRF is all discombobulated its *two* forecast MH landfalls on SE Florida failed to materialize and now it just doesn't know what to do. *Although in all seriousness, given the way the HWRF over-reacts to favorable conditions, is it possible that it also at times over-reacts to unfavorable or at least sub-optimal conditions, such as a certain amount of PVS-induced shear?

(Looks at that triple point in SE SD/SW MN on 18Z NAM) This really is quite an impressive-looking shortwave especially for the time of year, you wonder why we can't get setups like this in May and June but I'll take it.

Right front relative to motion of the center, so would be northwest in the case of a westward-moving landfall. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

I WISH it was Day 5...Friday's threat looks like it might be just a tad too far west for an after-work chase for me. Edit: Yep, 12Z NAM has some juicy soundings at 00Z Saturday in southeastern SD. Might have to see about begging off early if it holds.

Doubtful, not like we needed one with the 8/7-8/11 sequence.

As much as I love storms/local chase opportunities, even I needed a break after last Saturday through Wednesday! Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

So tomorrow is now down to a marginal risk? *Checks archives* Yep, that was the day they put a Day 4 area out for on Tuesday. Why do they even bother during summer MCS season?

Beautiful, but very tough to chase in except for a small area* which is manageable. Once you get into the Wisconsin River Valley, in northern Iowa/Sauk/Grant/Crawford Counties, fugheddaboutit. Mad I probably could have gotten that tornado had I left for the storm about 20 minutes earlier, when I first thought it was starting to look interesting, but again, figured it would collapse (like it ultimately ended up doing) and really didn't want to get suckered further from home after what had already been a letdown of a day. At least from the point where I realized the storm was dying, I was like 20 minutes from home. *Most of Dane County is relatively decent, except for the far southwest corner (which of course is where yesterday's storm tracked into just before it collapsed) and the immediate Madison vicinity where you have all the usual problems with metro chasing. Green/Rock, southern Columbia, Dodge, Jefferson and western Walworth Counties are OK terrain-wise, but southeastern Rock County into Walworth County the road network is really bad. Once you get into the Lake Geneva area, it's really bad trees lining the roads again. The rural parts of the far southeastern counties are OK, but you have limited space before you run into the metro areas of Milwaukee/Racine/Kenosha and then of course the big lake. As I said basically anything along the Wisconsin River and the Driftless Area is horrible, which of course is where most of the best storms (including Boscobel) during this sequence have been. The only significant tornado, to my knowledge, to track through that relatively small area of manageable chase terrain in recent decades is the Stoughton tornado of August, 2005.

Red Toyota Corolla, had my phone on a dash mount running an app that lets me stream live video back to the Madison TV station I work for (when there's sufficient data coverage, which is spotty in that area, heck even basic voice is for me on US Cellular).

It hit the stable air/stronger cap. Guessing you probably passed me/I passed you several times on County A near Daleyville?

Argh, I probably could have seen this had I started going for the storm as soon as I took note of it, but I really didn't expect it to do anything and didn't want to backtrack further from home after making a big loop back from the Lake Delton area after an aborted attempt to get to the early cells to the north. I had of course just left Mt. Horeb eastbound for home and had to spin a frantic uie on 151. Hauled butt to Hollandale where it still had a neat looking rain free base with RFD cut but quickly died after that. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Storm near Mineral Point looks momentarily interesting on radar. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk