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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    Currently on the road, roughly where is OFB set up? Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  2. CheeselandSkies
    Yeah, looking at roughly a Waterloo-Cedar Rapids-Marshaltown triangle. I can be there in about 3 1/2 hours. Problem is (1) I'm still at work, staying late since our meteorologist wants to be ready to go live should the line moving through our market area get warned, and (2) I'll have to drive through that line to get to the target area.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    Hard to tell. Pretty clear now that HRRR was out to lunch with its depiction of the early round dying out by early afternoon, new warning approaching the Dubuque area. HRRR had the line much weaker at 17Z than reality even as recently as the 15Z run...and remained insistent on a significant supercell traversing NE Iowa around 22-23Z. We'll see if it holds steadfast despite the more vigorous early round/seeming lack of major clearing behind it on current satellite.
  4. CheeselandSkies
    14Z HRRR remains rather insistent that current IA complex should weaken and clear out paving the way for significant storms around peak heating hours, but it seems to be holding its own although all warnings have been allowed to expire for some time now. Anvil debris has overspread Madison with a milky overcast in place at 1030.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Numerous warnings in Iowa, first report of wind damage in from Story County at 0841.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    Still full sunshine in Madison as of 0930, but it shouldn't be long before anvil debris from the line in Iowa starts to push in. Blue box up for far SW WI counties.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    I still can't wrap my head around La Nina's influence on severe weather. 2010 was an excellent chase year, 2011 had the epic April and the late May sequence that included Joplin and El Reno I, but 2018 and this year were both very weak springs for activity.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    12Z HRRR has the current Iowa/MN stuff mostly dissipating/lifting into MN by early afternoon, with a somewhat cellular to broken line appearance to the later afternoon convection that develops in IA/WI. 06Z 3KM NAM OTOH shows us getting split. Develops a big MCS/bow echo in MN/northwestern WI in the early evening that largely dies out before it gets here in the early morning hours of Thursday, with more storms developing in northern IL.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    Still near-full sunshine in Madison as of 0715. MD already out... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1279.html
  10. CheeselandSkies
    Rarely of late for a day with expected severe potential, we are starting off the morning with full sunshine...
  11. CheeselandSkies
    18Z HRRR is less interesting from a chase perspective (surprise surprise), but it suggest 3 rounds of storms might be possible for S. WI. One around 18-20Z, one 20-22Z (which is portrayed as the strongest despite seemingly insufficient recovery time after the first) and another around 04-06Z overnight into Thursday morning. This would certainly help with our precip deficit if nothing else.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    Large Day 2 Enhanced risk over IA/MN/WI is thread-worthy...maybe...
  13. CheeselandSkies
    That's surprising, I more expect him to be excessively bullish on severe/particularly potential compared to what actually pans out. What day was that?
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Do you expect this to kill the instability for the day?
  15. CheeselandSkies
    ENH expanded south at 1730Z, as I expected based on 12Z CAMs. Eh, it is Broyles, though. The explicit mention of the NAM soundings gave it away before I even got to the signature. @Chicago Storm
  16. CheeselandSkies
    12Z 3KM NAM is similar but a little quicker and more linear...ENH area is going to need to be adjusted south dramatically. Edit: Then it fires up Round 2 in IA.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    12Z HRRR...MBY...that is all.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    I thought it was just Broyles.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    Typical; we go from a miss south to a miss north. Could be interesting for someone: EDIT: HRRR is actually more intriguing with southern WI potential than the 3K NAM. Both suggest northeastern Iowa could be in play.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    Ninja'ed me dagnabit.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    Unexpected...
  22. CheeselandSkies
    New Day 3...
  23. CheeselandSkies
    GFS's coarse sim radar continues to hint at a possible southeastward-moving MCS/derecho in the upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. It's in NAM range as of this morning which is typically bonkers with the instability. We shall see...
  24. CheeselandSkies
    Looks like main MCS/possible derecho is gonna track east and south of the ENH area. *Although, there is another one to the west in NE.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    06Z GFS with next c*** tease bust set for next Wednesday.
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