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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    00Z GFS hints at some stormy mischief possible in the Plains and/or this sub mid-late next week with a deep cyclone and a broad moist sector across the central and eastern CONUS. It's still early season and it's barely inside of 200 hours, so that's about all that can be said at this point.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    Hmmmm...not sure how I feel about that. On the one hand, I want no part of a return to a wintry pattern after the equinox and especially after the calendar flips to April. OTOH, an instant flip to a baking, summerlike ridge is no good either.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    The general consensus from what I've seen is that the SA variant may be able to evade vaccines moreso than the others at least in terms of infections/mild-moderate illness, but there's still a marked reduction in severe illness (hospitalizations/deaths).
  4. CheeselandSkies
    I-70 and south is getting it today.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    At least part of that may be due to them replicating so fast that critical cases are once again overrunning ICU capacity in some areas that haven't fully recovered from earlier wave(s).
  6. CheeselandSkies
    No, Euro is not a hi-res CAM. It also had its own issues with drastically over-amping yesterday/today's system within 24 hours. See discussion here:
  7. CheeselandSkies
    That was really the one thing no one thought was gonna happen yesterday. All the discussion was over whether insufficient capping would allow for a destructively interfering convective mess. We still have much to learn, and much tweaking to do to the models.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Whatever happened to "The King"?
  9. CheeselandSkies
    SVR lmao
  10. CheeselandSkies
    Oddly quiescent for what should be peak tornado hours, once the second long-track monster dissipated. Just a few SVRs out across the South. ...too quiet.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    Storms keep trying south of Jackson/west of I-59 but nothing has really taken root there so far. They had a lot of heating this morning though (relative to AL) and surface winds should back with time. Good chunk of eastern MS remains in the 15% hatched MDT risk.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    Yep...
  13. CheeselandSkies
    Almost in the same spot as where the next EF4 produced by the same supercell that spawned Tuscaloosa/Birmingham crossed into GA on 4/27/11, although it took a little different trajectory to get there. It also crossed AL-9 north of Piedmont very near Goshen UMC of Palm Sunday 1994 infamy.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Maybe it's too soon to say they dodged another one despite the trimming of the HIGH. That one north of Tylertown looks like trouble down the road. Of course, I said the same thing about the discrete cells popping in south-central MS last Wednesday and they just kind of died out.
  15. CheeselandSkies
    Interesting how this storm started out well south of the 4/27/11 track through Greene/Tuscaloosa/Jefferson Counties but is now basically on top of it from Ohatchee up toward Cave Spring, GA.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    Myself included?
  17. CheeselandSkies
    To be fair, the hodos were insane on the forecast soundings across *all* modeling going into this event. If the observed evolution deviates substantially from that, it will be a major fail of NWP. *Note that I am NOT calling for that, yet, but it sure does seem that high-ceiling severe weather threats are on a long streak of never evolving as expected.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Had to be. Should have looked like Tuscaloosa or Cordova from 4/27/11.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    It's still down. It may not be an EF3+ but there's something there with a visible couplet so close to the radar.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    Still early in the event, surface low hasn't really started to deepen yet, plus it's getting really close to the BMX NEXRAD site. Ground clutter will become an issue here shortly if it hasn't already.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    Deepening surface lows do amazing things WRT LLJ response/backing low level winds. This trough has the perfect amount of negative tilt to allow classic, uninterrupted veering of the winds from the surface on up to the tropopause. It's debatable how much of a negating factor certain degrees of veer-backing really are, but it's not even an issue today.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    Maybe for your specific area, but for the event as a whole I think there's just too much that's highly favorable to get by without at least a few significant tornadoes tomorrow. My floor for tomorrow is basically a slightly more intense repeat of last Wednesday (add 1 or 2 long-track EF3+), and that's if the warm sector is quite messy.
  23. CheeselandSkies
    @Fred Gossage just made a great point on another forum, which is that on the 18Z HRRR, you can watch the "junk" updrafts die out with time as the supercells mature and are able to dominate the environment. It was not portraying this evolution leading up to last Wednesday.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    Looks like some much-needed precip for lower Michigan and Ontario. That deepening bodes ominous signs for the South tomorrow.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    Category upgrade driven by 30% hail area, tornado probs upped to 5%.
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