CheeselandSkies

Kind of unusual for us to start off an expected severe weather day with this much full sunshine in this neck of the woods. Of course, northern IL was socked in until early afternoon yesterday.

I will definitely be out and about. Probably nap for a couple hours after work then head to Mt. Horeb or thereabouts, looks like a good jumping off point based on the HRRR. Would like to see it be a little more robust with the UH tracks, but as yesterday show that's not the end all/be all of things.

CAMs are not much help with HRRR and 3KM NAM worlds apart this morning.

Did I mention August is the new May? Confirmed. I suppose I should include the second half of July as well. 07 HRRR convection forming in SW WI late this afternoon is...rather discrete. ...and Wednesday looks like a day to keep an eye on, too!

As an aside, I passed through Fairdale three times today going after the various cells and then doubling back for more. There are still shredded-looking trees and a boarded-up, battered (half the siding gone and several windows blown out) building on Main Street that looks like it was abandoned after 4/9/15. Although today WAS my most successful chase to date, my first fully condensed, unquestionably confirmed (my pics and video don't require any explanation like "there's a tornado there but it didn't have a condensation funnel at that moment," or "it's behind that wall of rain," or "I was too far away to see the debris cloud under that bowl-shaped lowering") tornado that I actually got to tripod my video camera and watch/shoot for several minutes as opposed to running-and-gunning (or the show ending right then and there)...I still won't get over botching that day that the atmosphere tried to gift-wrap for me until I catch a tornado equally as spectacular.

August is officially the new May, lol. Got the funnel near Edmond and the first tornado north of Clare/south of Kirkland. Then started for home because things seemed to be downtrending on radar and heading into the Chicago metro. Whoops... Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Cell over Davis Jct looked interesting for a minute, but no warning and no significant couplet to speak of. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

MD 1450 is up for our AOI. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

I'm now in Rochelle watching trains. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

I'm hanging out in Rockford for now, still socked in with occasional showers/rumbles. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

No offense, can we not clutter up an active thread about an ongoing event with historical discussion? We should either create a separate thread for today/tomorrow's severe threat, or one for discussion of rainfall records.

Sorry man. Was in the running for that category in S. WI too, but the last couple weeks have turned that around.

SPC with the bump to 5%.

Chief met at my employer was hitting the "t" word rather hard for tomorrow during our Morning Show...ironic since SPC has it at "less than 2% all areas." He must be jumpy after Saturday.

Now some more recent runs show stronger stuff and of course they put it IN the Chicago metro...

HRRR is still rather meh. 00Z/06Z 3KM NAM remain intriguing. Haven't seen that combo of CAM solutions for awhile...usually they're flip-flopped from that.

Literal Rochelle 2.0, lol. Unless I'm missing something, the UDH on the HRRR isn't really that alarming. It was showing phat red/purple streaks in Iowa on 7/14 for example, or even for yesterday's Boscobel tornado although it placed that simulated sup too far NE at least on the run I saw. However, I've noticed you can't really key in on that particular product until the day of, especially with these mesoscale-driven summer events. Then further out, 3KM NAM's scenario for Tuesday does not exactly jive well with SPC's Day 3 outlook.

Meanwhile, it's toward the end of its run but 3KM NAM paints a rather volatile environment over eastern Iowa/SW WI again Tuesday evening. Another Grant County (terrible terrain) special? Stay tooned!

I headed out after it after seeing that radar signature, unfortunately that's in a really bad terrain area. I intercepted it near Dodgeville, saw an ominous shelf cloud as it was starting to gust/bow out at that time but still had a pronounced couplet buried in the rain. I got into some blinding rain and got smacked by a few hailstones heading back east on 151, pulled off at Barneveld (of 1984 F5 infamy) and waited for things to pass before heading home as things had completely lined out by then.

Tor!

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1434.html Edit: Appears to already be a small supercell approaching Seneca/Gays Mills, with a pronounced couplet.

Nope. A couple of those earlier storms to the northwest have shown some transient/low-end supercell characteristics on radar, but have quickly collapsed. Looks like some slight clearing over far SW WI. We'll see if it's enough. EDIT: Latest HRRR puts a beefy sup through southern Marquette/northern Columbia Counties around 00Z (7 PM CDT). Based on observed trends I think it's too far north and east with that, if anything like that forms at all.

Severe warned cell moving into Sauk County looks to have a bit of broad rotation with it. Might head up to do a little spotting (didn't really consider today a "chase" day) if it holds together.

They did, had a severe warning about an hour ago. Storm was nearly stationary and appeared to take on brief supercell characteristics with a NW-SE orientation to the reflectivity pattern. It's essentially died out over the same spot.

Wish they'd have built like 10 miles further west . Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk