CheeselandSkies

Ofc HRRR wants to track the strongest simulated cell along the Wisconsin River Valley at the Iowa/Sauk county line.

15Z HRRR shows the large CAPE hole from the IL MCS and seems to initialize with it on sim reflectivity much better than previous runs...we'll see where it goes from here.

I figured as much, the question is what will that boundary do when it hits the front and will that airmass be able to recover? Sometimes these organized cold pools can screw things up even with clearing (case in point 6/22/15 which was supposed to be a WI event from Day 3 but ended up in IL as far as ).

Eastern Iowa clearing, except for what appears to be another storm blowing up in the far SE corner. Look like some sort of boundary flying northward on a collision course with the NE-SW oriented one (the front?) in west-central WI/SE MN.

Looks like most of MO/IA are clear.

Nearly full sunshine here for the moment, but that cloud deck from the IL MCS is about to encroach from the south. Based on the way it's expanding, it may be around for a while. If it is indeed developing a cold pool, we'll have to hope it can recover. Monday didn't clear out until well into the afternoon, but if I recall correctly those morning storms didn't create an organized cold pool.

Expanded significantly at 13Z. We're getting some cloud breaks already. Yesterday felt so strange with so much sunshine in the morning/early afternoon of an expected severe weather day in this region.

So ofc they put it in MI.

Just saw a nice CG from my porch (missed it with the video, of course). My plant stands probably would have blown over had I not secured them to the railing with zip ties (they stayed upright the night in late July when those midnight tornadoes passed about a mile west of here, that was before I added the zip ties). Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Getting breezy out there... Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Linear trash, that's what.

Watch expansion to the east is gonna be needed soon.

That would explain its perplexing lack of convection for most of the afternoon...

Drinking on the job? Maybe the bulk of the last few A/M/Js broke them and they weren't prepared for the return of an actual, sustained severe weather pattern in August. I know I wasn't.

SPC no help with zero change at 1630.

15Z HRRR back to showing a near total bust across southern WI before dark.

14Z HRRR just got a bit more interesting locally around 00Z tonight.

Kind of unusual for us to start off an expected severe weather day with this much full sunshine in this neck of the woods. Of course, northern IL was socked in until early afternoon yesterday.

I will definitely be out and about. Probably nap for a couple hours after work then head to Mt. Horeb or thereabouts, looks like a good jumping off point based on the HRRR. Would like to see it be a little more robust with the UH tracks, but as yesterday show that's not the end all/be all of things.

CAMs are not much help with HRRR and 3KM NAM worlds apart this morning.

Did I mention August is the new May? Confirmed. I suppose I should include the second half of July as well. 07 HRRR convection forming in SW WI late this afternoon is...rather discrete. ...and Wednesday looks like a day to keep an eye on, too!

As an aside, I passed through Fairdale three times today going after the various cells and then doubling back for more. There are still shredded-looking trees and a boarded-up, battered (half the siding gone and several windows blown out) building on Main Street that looks like it was abandoned after 4/9/15. Although today WAS my most successful chase to date, my first fully condensed, unquestionably confirmed (my pics and video don't require any explanation like "there's a tornado there but it didn't have a condensation funnel at that moment," or "it's behind that wall of rain," or "I was too far away to see the debris cloud under that bowl-shaped lowering") tornado that I actually got to tripod my video camera and watch/shoot for several minutes as opposed to running-and-gunning (or the show ending right then and there)...I still won't get over botching that day that the atmosphere tried to gift-wrap for me until I catch a tornado equally as spectacular.

August is officially the new May, lol. Got the funnel near Edmond and the first tornado north of Clare/south of Kirkland. Then started for home because things seemed to be downtrending on radar and heading into the Chicago metro. Whoops... Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Cell over Davis Jct looked interesting for a minute, but no warning and no significant couplet to speak of. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

MD 1450 is up for our AOI. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk