CheeselandSkies

Never confirmed by radar (TDS) or spotters. IMO that wording shouldn't be used unless it is (confirmed). Edit: Looked like there might have been a TDS there at 0224 and 0226 UTC, but the warning statement didn't include that. They said "radar indicated rotation" instead of "radar confirmed tornado."

The header says March?

48 in Milwaukee rn, so glad I no longer live there.

IMO it should look and feel outside like it does here rn every day from now until the summer solstice.

Oh, believe me, that is happening.

Seems to be the default mode now. How bogus is it that we have a warm front draped across southern Wisconsin in late April, we're expected to nearly hit 80, and we don't have a substantial threat? My lifelong interest in following the weather is rapidly dwindling.

Like last Friday, should be a good day for the OK/TX-based chasers to get out and maybe (long shot) luck out with a storm like that Quanah/Lockett one. Not really worth traveling from outside the area, especially since it's looking like a one-and-done as opposed to a sequence of chase days (might be something somewhere Wednesday but details are looking very nebulous at this point).

12Z 3KM NAM has a nice fantasy warm front rider in northern Illinois Wednesday afternoon.

I've heard rumblings just a few days ago of the MJO going through a favorable progression for CONUS severe weather. Is this no longer expected to happen, or are there other factors at play that are expected to negate its impact?

Not quite sure how most local mets (MKX/broadcast) along with SPC are totally dismissing severe potential into the upper Midwest region Tuesday afternoon/evening with forecast soundings like this:

NAM isn't real impressive for Tuesday afternoon/evening. Has pretty much zero instability over the area where SPC has the threat outlined.

Tuesday evening is within NAM range now, it joins how the GFS has been for quite a while with this system in portraying not much CAPE despite a broad warm/moist sector. Ironically it likewise shows one of the more unstable areas being over MBY, while the local forecast office and broadcast mets have not sounded impressed on severe potential around here.

KFDX live coverage: https://www.texomashomepage.com/live-stream/ I think that's the guy I watched after stumbling into a shady motel room in Wichita Falls on 5/20/19 wondering what the heck just happened.

Hearing them talk about "two tornadoes" down, but can't see anything due to buffering. Radar looks impressive, though.

If this storm holds together on that track it could be a threat to the Vernon, TX area. Good thing parameters don't really support long-track tornadic supercells in that area today, but something to keep an eye on.

Oh nice, that is a Plains classic. Already better than 5/20/19, lol.

I admit the first couple months of total lockdown were pretty depressing, and that was just from stir-craziness. My fiancee and I were never at risk of losing our livelihood (I'm in broadcast media, she's a social worker).

TOG, nice classic funnel. Edit: Brief, but looked good for a minute there.

This one looks like it could get it done. Either way, should be a nice photogenic supercell to be on.

There's always gotta be one...

Well, that alone would work against a 2012 analog, at least in this part of the country, lol.

Elaborate, please.

Just anecdotally 2012 was way worse by this point already, although I don't remember the percentages.

Since I do not pay to access the EURO soundings on Pivotal, my analysis has been limited to the GFS which has been intent on showing a very deep trough with strongly meridional 500mb flow, and a more subdued ceiling for the event as a result. The Euro also appears to show a secondary surface low in SE NE with a warm front extending into Iowa (and the GFS, for all its flaws with the setup as portrayed, has been consistently showing some of the strongest warm sector instability over N IL/WI/MN/IA), so it could be a potential regional chase for me since I get out of work at noon Tuesday and have Wednesday off.

We'll see how much action happens in this sub, GFS has consistently been very amped with the trough next Tuesday/Wednesday resulting in highly meridional 500mb flow. It has also been consistent with wanting to get the moist sector pretty far north yet showing large areas of it with nil SBCAPE.