CheeselandSkies

I believe their standard is 50 miles.

I think a lot of the people who have been trumpeting that expected the La Nina to hang on longer than it did. That said, today/tomorrow could get plenty dangerous in the South and there probably will be more systems later on down the line. I wouldn't mind another crack at something like last March 28th without all the morning junk. Or at least March 15th, 2016. Glimpsed the EF2 near Hanna City, IL that day. First and only time I've seen a confirmed tornado on an actual chase, but it was just a brief glimpse in the post-dusk lightning flashes.

Well, that didn't take long. @cheese007 and @TexMexWx got the first high risk, yearly tornado count obviously still TBD. Place your bets/guesses for the second high risk!

I was wondering when someone was going to throw their hat in the ring for tomorrow. There were some model solutions yesterday that had me second-guessing my call that it stays moderate, but the ominous trends have stalled or reversed themselves (slightly) in subsequent runs. A mid-day upgrade is still possible pending day-of trends (kind of like on 4/28/14), but at the moment I'm not expecting a high risk on tomorrow's initial (or even second) Day 1 outlook.

At last check, I wasn't aware of anyone who was following the science and doing their part to combat the most severe pandemic in 102 years who was also wearing gas masks and holding up signs saying "The End is Nigh." I'll let you know if I see any.

One year ago today, panic buying in full swing at my local grocery stores. Luckily I was able to find enough toilet paper at a Walgreen's to get my fiancee and I through that period without having to resort to "alternate" methods.

NE'ward progress of precip seems to have stalled in the far SW corner of Dane Co. (and it's probably not even reaching the ground there).

I wondered earlier if that might become an issue with the howling easterly wind.

Well, we've been holding off on starting this thread, but with one decent Plains chase event (especially by mid-March standards) already in the books and a potentially significant severe event for Dixie looming on Wednesday, it's time to start gazing into crystal balls for what the rest of 2021 might bring as far as those rotating columns of air in contact with the ground goes. I'm going to go with 1,200 tornadoes and first (perhaps only) high risk April 6. As has been hashed out in lots of good discussion on this and other forums by knowledgeable people like @andyhb and @Fred Gossage, the indicators are kind of muddled. There are some that weigh heavily towards an active and dangerous season, especially early and in Dixie (see Day 3 outlook, lol) and others that say "not so fast!" (especially towards those media outlets and Twitterheads throwing a 2011 repeat on the table). Wednesday could go HIGH but my gut tells me it stays capped at MDT and plays out with a ceiling similar to last Easter.

SPC's Day 3 Enhanced risk clips the northeast corner of Louisiana, with the New Orleans area in the slight risk. You'd probably be OK to travel but definitely stay weather aware.

Wow, MKX actually went with a WWA for Dane.

Couplet looked nasty there for a minute, but ramped down again on the next scan.

I mean, I can't be THAT wrong at 84 hours...can it?

Haven't seen any tornado reports, and the slight is dropped. A couple of sig hail reports, though. Edit: Probably the best photo I've seen so far. Looks like it might have been (at least briefly) on the ground behind the trees: https://www.facebook.com/LiveStormChaser/posts/3583427375216800

HRRR has now dropped that idea the last couple hourly runs and now shows everything lining out quickly along the front with no UH >75. Keeps the line intact just barely through MBY by 04Z.

Have fun.

It's a little ominous in wanting to slam the strongest cell of the event (apparently a sweet-spot triple point rider) into the southern part of the Twin Cities metro for a couple runs in a row. Warrants close attention.

Yep, looks like some sneaky potential in the SE MN/WC WI area. Of course, the first event of the season somehow manages to be out of my after-work range to the north. If I hauled @** I could reach the MS River by go time, but that and points east are awful chase terrain up there.

Like I said on Stormtrack, could be a good opportunity for some shake-the-rust-off/break in the gear chases for people who live in/near the risk area, especially falling on a weekend and if you didn't get out much last year due to COVID-19 concerns. That's about it.

My parents (Dad turns 72 this month, Mom turns 70 next month) got their first doses (Pfizer) on Friday. Still worried about my fiancee's dad, though. He's also over 70 with multiple health conditions, lives in the every-mask-for-himself state of Texas (and just had to stay at a friend's house after losing power during the recent winter weather and its repercussions). He also does not have Internet to navigate the sign-up portal; nor is he the type to willingly seek it out. Hope he is around to come to our wedding, whenever that may be. Originally planned for last November, postponed a year for everyone's safety and so that we could do it the way we originally envisioned it; now even that is up in the air due to my fiancee's own lingering health issues caused by our having COVID-19 last August.

See post above yours, wash, rinse, repeat until it's July and 95 degrees.

It's sunny but not warm enough yet, there hasn't been nor is there the slightest hint of a severe weather threat anywhere in the nation in the near term; next week's system(s) look to be moisture-starved because somehow cold fronts are still scouring the Gulf even though we got rid of the abominable cold air over a week ago. There's my complaint.

You can tell there is not enough going on with the weather again. This thread was a lot slower during the epic winter stretch Jan-Feb. It's nice but not nice enough to do much outside unless you're a die-hard...that should change by Sunday. Still need some potential to track.

Very interesting pair of analogs because those years behaved very differently during the spring and summer here in the upper Midwest. Very wet/stormy with numerous tornadoes and widespread flooding problems ('08) vs. exceedingly warm and dry ('12).