CheeselandSkies

Dang, was not expecting a warned cell there. Had written this day off per my earlier post. That said it looks fairly messy/HP on radar.

Insufficient recovery between rounds for WI/N IL/E IA...as I suspected. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Easy no-chase decision for me, then. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

SPC:

That's something I've been concerned about, since my fiancee will eventually need a kidney transplant...due to COVID giving her kidney failure.

Well we have our answer, ENH out for 30% unhatched wind stretching from SE IA to N IN/SW lwr. MI. Tornado outlook remains a fairly large 5% area, in reality the majority of it will probably see no tornadoes while there is a focused tornado threat near the track of the MCV. The broad zone is just to account for margin of error. My chasing range will be limited since I will be visiting my parents for Father's Day.

LOL

Complex really appears to finally be firing up in SE MN, going to ride the MS to La Crosse. Madison looks to be in the crosshairs around 05-06Z, so perhaps HRRR was right after all.

01Z SPC outlooked maintained ENH risk for sig wind for southern WI/northwest IL, even though there's only one warned cell in the complex near La Crosse right now and we're still not yet under a watch. They really could have dropped the 5% tornado. *Edit: Watch finally out.

Ofc best-looking supercell of the day (radar-wise) is riding the MS River. This is why I rarely bother to chase regionally.

Decent looking supercell west of Wabasha, MN, probably will just be a hailer for the time being. Looks like the SE-moving complex may be beginning to take shape between the Twin Cities and La Crosse. If that's the case, it may be through here several hours earlier than the HRRR has been consistently indicating.

88/59 at Madison at 5 PM...just stepped outside and it actually felt a little muggy, although it has become overcast*. Not that I ever really had high expectations for today as far as chaseworthiness, but definitely not a T/Td spread that screams *Radar actually shows a line of weaksauce showers already formed and about to pass over us. HRRR says to expect main line around 2 AM-3 AM CDT or exactly when I will be commuting to work.

One thing I don't quite understand is that the HRRR soundings for MBY are all capped overnight with "none" in the hazard box, yet it still shows the storms moving through here.

Or coming south from WI...latest HRRR shows hardly anything forming in IA through 05Z tonight.

Latest HRRR has one complex forming in northwest Iowa moving east and one in northern/central Wisconsin moving south, which is depicted still north of me by 05Z tonight.

Dewpoint of 38 on the 5AM ob at Madison. Going to need very rapid moisture advection for any severe weather threat. This time of year at this latitude I like to see something like 70/66 the night before an expected severe weather day, but it's 2021 so I suppose we have to take what we can get.

There is truly a sense of wonderment about it.

I'll take the 6Z 3KM NAM over the 00Z, please. Suggests 2 rounds of storms Thursday evening/night for SW/SC WI as well as parts of IA and northern IL. * Only caveat being that it shows it coming through the Madison area around the time I would be commuting into work. Edit: 12Z shafts Dane Co. again.

12Z GFS gives southern WI a much-needed good soaking Thursday night. NAM gives it to N IL and NW IN.

Since the Dane County mandate expired at the beginning of the month, I've stopped wearing a mask in common areas of my apartment building and other public indoor spaces where I'm just passing through (such as when I'm taking the trash to the chute or walking to/from my car in the basement garage). I'm continuing to wear them in grocery stores and other places with either a lot of people and/or I'm going to be spending an extended period of time. I'm fully vaccinated, but people don't know that by looking at me, so I mainly do it as a courtesy and on the slight, but nonzero chance that transmission is possible from a vaccinated, asymptomatic individual.

(Checks GFS and NAM) Dear God, don't let me get suckered to central Lie-owa on a work night.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=220742776369868

This is news to me. Although, as @Hoosier said in response to @Chicago Storm, "more active" relative to what we've been in isn't saying much.

MKX also issued their first SVR warnings of the year today. No reports in the area, though. Like all the other "rain" events this week, just a brief sprinkle in MBY. Pretty unusual (and depressing) to go through an entire spring without even one good gully-washer of an MCS here...and no prospects of such for the foreseeable future.

At 1630Z SPC expanded the upper Midwest marginal risk so Madison is just barely included in the 5% wind. Event of the year.