CheeselandSkies

I may be off on this but I feel like we average 1-2 tornado watches a year now here in southern Wisconsin for the last few years. In the 2000s, yes there were down years but there were also years where there'd be like a 3-week period in May and June where it seemed like we were under one every other day.

I wouldn't say "Outbreak Sequence" at this point. More like "something marginally more interesting than the abysmal 'spring' pattern we've been in."

RadarScope showing some lightning strikes near Kankakee/Joliet.

Forecast for Monday is partly sunny and 55.

A rockin' June for me is like a rockin' February (or March) for @beavis1729 and other winter weenies. It's better than nothing (unless you're rooting for a futility record by that point), but it's tough to fully enjoy because you know the season is almost over before it really began when you waste two months of peak climo for your preferred type of weather.

Had me going there for a sec. Might as well just lock this thread for the next month.

That ****-ing NW-SE stream from south-central Canada down into the mid-Atlantic. The thing about the favorable tropical forcing etc I thought was it was supposed to make that go away, at least temporarily. What's it going to take to allow for a trough to dig into the western US and spin out a sequence of shortwaves that can then traverse the central and eastern US unimpeded, with ready access to rich Gulf moisture, as happened in years like 1999, 2004 and 2008?

IMO there hasn't really been a classic regional Plains outbreak since 5/6/2015 (reports graphic attached). There was expected to be a more significant one ten days later (15% hatched TOR from the OK/TX border to I-80 corridor in NE on the initial Day 1 outlook) but most of the warm sector got washed out by overnight junk and the only major player of the day ended up being the Elmer/Tipton, OK-area tornado. Likewise every other would-be high end day since (most notably the high-risk 5/18/17 and 5/20/19) have 11th-hour downtrended to one "needle in a haystack" storm of the day that performs. Not to say that there haven't been classic tornadoes/tornado days in the mid/late 2010s (especially Dodge City 5/24/16 and Chapman the next day, as well as some good western Plains/front range days in CO/WY/MT/western NE) but those have mostly been one or two storm affairs, not outbreaks in the classic sense like a 4/26/91 or 5/3/99 or even 5/29/04.

Is it bad that every spring I feel compelled to bring this out? ...until the next one.

Let's just hit all the places in the South that have been hit before...Yazoo City, Tupelo, now Gallatin.

If it were a May 2003 analog you'd think there would be at least a whiff of a sustained SW flow pattern and outbreak sequence potential on the models.

I see two, both in Georgia and listed under the wind reports.

Couplet appears to be ramping up with a possible TDS SW of Blum, TX.

Overall structure of the complex (linear cluster/bowing segment with supercell/hook at the south end) reminds me of the one that produced the at-dusk EF2 that I glimpsed near Trivoli/Hanna City (about 3 rows of counties north) on March 15, 2016.

Lead storm is within the sweet spot from KILX where if there were anything substantial down we'd see a pronounced couplet and TDS.

Argh. If it could have been along I-80 instead of I-72 I'd have been there. Blasted work.

Looks like Tail-End Charlie coming up on Virginia, IL might do something.

Common theme of most events in the Plains for quite a few years now. The old race between improving shear profiles, and storm mode.

Some screwy low-level winds there and paltry SRH, 10% hatched risk is questionable unless a storm can find a sweet spot.

Kinda sad that I'm this stoked just to see spots of red (≥50 dbz returns) on the MKX radar at this point.

Meanwhile, the ones in Dixie just keep on spinning...

El Reno 2011 may have been the most impressive EF5 since the enhanced-Fujita scale was introduced (along with Parkersburg 2008). The debris granulation and hurling/mangling of vehicles and large industrial equipment were on a level seen in only the most violent tornadoes. I don't believe any of the house damage was rated EF5 but only because they (per usual) were being extremely nit-picky with spacing of anchor bolts and what not, but with the contextual damage combined with the radar data they pretty much couldn't avoid rating it EF5. It was one of three tornadoes in Oklahoma that day that were at least as, if not more violent than any that infamous day three days shy of a month prior. It was very close to being another horrific disaster for the OKC metro, but El Reno missed to the north/west and the one that was tracking up I-44 toward Moore/Norman/Newcastle lifted just before it reached there (although, it only bought them a two-year reprieve).

The rest of your post is sad but

Good luck! If I lived an hour and a half further south I'd probably bite on today. Of course, if I lived an hour and a half further south I'd probably be a Bears fan, so...

As per usual, this sets up in the most annoying possible place for me - at just about the fringe of how far I can go on a work night and still get home in time to get a couple hours' sleep, and not good enough to really get my adrenaline flowing, but with enough conditional potential to keep me biting my nails watching the radar if I stay home. Some of that CAM output has been a little eye-opening, but the cloud cover is hanging tough across the area of interest. *Edit* Although as @Chicago Storm alluded to, some clearing does appear to be pushing in now. Also of concern though is that the HRRR seems to be depicting a rather cluster-y/bowing storm mode with the early evening activity along and north of I-72. It's like every setup is determined to remind me that I can never forgive myself for blowing Rochelle day.