CheeselandSkies

Felt a little woozy overnight but good for now. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

2nd shot of Moderna today. 6.5 hours in, slightly stiff upper arm where the injection was done but nowhere near as sore as the first time. First one was as bad or worse than a tetanus shot.

Such a stark divide between the haves and the have nots. You expect this with snow, but geez. So far this "wet" period hasn't done as much to chip away at our deficit as I'd hoped. We need a big booming MCS that pours and roars for an hour or so.

GFS shows some potential events next week but they're generally much more localized and a lot farther west than depicted above.

For MBY (2~ish hours from you) MKX has chances through Friday, then again from Sunday through the end of the 7-day. Although it rained decently from yesterday afternoon through this morning, we have yet to see a real, sustained downpour here in 2021, and I haven't even heard thunder yet this year. Wouldn't have seen lightning either if not for some distant, isolated thunderstorms that were going while I was driving in to work one night the first week of April.

I think SPC mentioned it in yesterday's DY4-8 but they kind of removed the reference today, and the DY3 Marginal is nowhere close.

TBH it looks like a pretty classic West Texas dryline setup. Not sure why tornado probabilities aren't higher/hatched. High-ish cloud bases due to expected hot temperatures, perhaps?

Check with India, see how that's going for them.

Yes, we finally get the moisture up here. Only problem is, it's May; where's the ****ing 500mb shear? @andyhb posted back in Feb that the long range climate models were showing something like this happening. I wanted to believe that they couldn't possibly be right at that range. Welp.

Hail-driven though, tornado probabilities remain at a seasonably meh 5%.

I remember there being some concern that the Western drought would expand throughout the Plains this spring. Thankfully that doesn't seem to be the case. Upper Midwest has seen significant improvement of late, but we here in southern WI are still running a pretty substantial rainfall deficit for the year, and southern Lower MI is even worse.

At least you're getting storms...

Polar opposite severe weather activity between the bolded and unbolded pairs. I'm pretty sure ENSO is useless as a predictor.

IIRC they don't recommend getting vaccinated so soon after natural infection, since immunity from that will last for a few months at least. Wishing you both a speedy/uncomplicated recovery.

Sounds like the Euro is just as bad, though.

I was only 9 but I remember the summer of '95 being quite stormy in this neck of the woods. I also remember sleeping in the living room a lot because my room upstairs was too stifling. We had an older house with one window A/C unit in the living room downstairs and one in my parents' room upstairs, which they didn't like to use because the wiring up there wasn't upgraded (two two-hole outlets in their room, one in each of the other two bedrooms). Ofc, that was already a much better chase season than this with several events in April and May, then the famous early June TX Panhandle outbreaks.

This ain't your grandaddy's G(oo)F(u)S...or (King) Euro, for that matter.

...and there will be one run of one CAM that will show it the night before, and SPC will have a Marginal or at most Slight risk on the initial Day 1 outlook covering the soon-to-be devastated area.

I guess we'll see if the AA precip forecast A.) verifies and B.) translates into increased severe weather activity for the Plains (north of Texas) and Midwest. Much of the upper Midwest is still abnormally dry.

I may be off on this but I feel like we average 1-2 tornado watches a year now here in southern Wisconsin for the last few years. In the 2000s, yes there were down years but there were also years where there'd be like a 3-week period in May and June where it seemed like we were under one every other day.

I wouldn't say "Outbreak Sequence" at this point. More like "something marginally more interesting than the abysmal 'spring' pattern we've been in."

RadarScope showing some lightning strikes near Kankakee/Joliet.

Forecast for Monday is partly sunny and 55.

A rockin' June for me is like a rockin' February (or March) for @beavis1729 and other winter weenies. It's better than nothing (unless you're rooting for a futility record by that point), but it's tough to fully enjoy because you know the season is almost over before it really began when you waste two months of peak climo for your preferred type of weather.

Had me going there for a sec. Might as well just lock this thread for the next month.