CheeselandSkies

Since I do not pay to access the EURO soundings on Pivotal, my analysis has been limited to the GFS which has been intent on showing a very deep trough with strongly meridional 500mb flow, and a more subdued ceiling for the event as a result. The Euro also appears to show a secondary surface low in SE NE with a warm front extending into Iowa (and the GFS, for all its flaws with the setup as portrayed, has been consistently showing some of the strongest warm sector instability over N IL/WI/MN/IA), so it could be a potential regional chase for me since I get out of work at noon Tuesday and have Wednesday off.

We'll see how much action happens in this sub, GFS has consistently been very amped with the trough next Tuesday/Wednesday resulting in highly meridional 500mb flow. It has also been consistent with wanting to get the moist sector pretty far north yet showing large areas of it with nil SBCAPE.

Just had a brief but vigorous snow shower here. No accumulations that I can see but visibility was kind of dicey there for a minute. @madwx

Pretty...in N/D/J/F. You can keep it.

I agree, but isn't that the system with the Day 4-5 outlooks currently for Friday/Saturday?

Hope that doesn't extend to potential severe systems as well (mid-next week). Although, that trough as modeled ATTM (at least on the deterministic GFS and the one Euro run I looked at) is actually a little TOO amped for quality chase-type severe in this neck of the woods, so...

Also noting that the PDS tornado watch included southern Wisconsin, but as usual the state line acted like a brick wall for severe convection.

Low of 31 today, but the record for the day is 21 set only in 2018, so it has been worse and not all that long ago. That year is still the worst April in my adult memory (narrowly edging out 2014), but the fact that every one since seems to have tried to challenge it is not good.

Remember those were a thing in April in the Midwest? I guess Rochelle wasn't that long ago...I try to block it out though since the atmosphere practically tried to gift-wrap it for me and I still managed to not catch it.

Still boggles my mind that such a historically violent storm system took place with a.) almost no forecast lead time from the models/SPC, and b.) in such an overall down year for severe weather activity.

Dig that right photo.

I seem to remember the May 2006 snow but I was in Green Bay for school then so it didn't seem as objectionable.

Snow patches remaining on the ground in southern Wisconsin on 4/20/18. It stayed so cold so long that year the greenup hadn't even started: 4/27/19 (coincidentally happened to catch the same locomotive)...greenup underway due to nice weather earlier in the month but then this: Pretty sure it snowed in April last year, too, but it probably just p***ed me off too much to photograph and I wasn't going out anyway due to the COVID lockdown. Way too much of this **** lately.

100%

@andyhb bringing some hope over on Stormtrack: https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/state-of-the-chase-season-2021.31689/post-371308

Is that Moore, OK or Tanner, AL?

Depressingly common in recent years...May too.

Need the MJO to wake things up again...and hope that whatever bizarre confluence of events that made the atmosphere forget it was May last year and in 2018 doesn't re-appear. Not to mention 2019's sequence which mostly failed to live up to its potential, but at least it was something. Last few GFS runs have shown signs of life toward the end of the month but suggest it may be mostly Dixie again...some possibility the Southern Plains get in on the action per the current (14/06Z) run. Not prime time for us yet, but it shouldn't be this much of a nail-biter. As @beavis1729 likes to say about cold and snow in D/J/F, you shouldn't need a bunch of indices to line up just right for potential in A/M/J. You really need an absolutely hostile pattern to prevent it from happening...but amazingly it seems that's what we have been getting more often than not these past few years. It seems the only "season" that's really reliable anymore is hurricanes in A/S/O (except in 2013, lol).

Of course, 12Z is back to

I'm 35 (was 34 when I got COVID last August). It barely touched me, other than a nearly two-week long total loss of taste and smell. I've had bouts with the flu, even colds where I felt way worse, and for longer. Only really noticed the cough at night for about a week. It put my fiancee, also 34 at the time (she's 4 months older than me) into the hospital for 4 days, although she never had any severe breathing problems she had extreme weakness/lethargy and wild blood pressure fluctuations. It also sent her into kidney failure and she is now on dialysis (granted, she had some preexisting conditions that predisposed her to kidney issues, but her function levels were holding their own before COVID). My friend Dan, a year older and a heavier guy, was in a coma on a ventilator for almost two weeks, nearly died, and still deals with lingering shortness of breath and weakness. He got it early in the pandemic (late March of 2020) when hardly anything was known about COVID-19, let alone how to treat severe cases, so he was lucky to survive.

It's only 300~ hours out... Nice to at least see signs of potential life.

Yeah, I was just watching the aerial video on that linked from Talkweather. Based on the street he named and looking at Google Maps, it looks like it actually missed Palmetto proper to the south. There's a school, post office, two churches, and several businesses in addition to many more homes there.

LOL, they must have issued that right after I posted and went to bed. Sounds like there was a destructive tornado at Palmetto, LA although it doesn't show as a tornado on the SPC LSR page...yet.

Does anyone find odd the lack of any tornado watches covering a 10% hatched area on the convective outlook? Especially since they routinely issue red boxes for 5% contours.