CheeselandSkies

SPC has been surprisingly bearish to this point, but if I recall correctly a few days ago the models were showing the warm sector barely making it onshore the Gulf Coast?

Problem is it's a "giant ridge pushing the jet stream up to Nunavut" AA signal rather than from being in the warm sectors of SLPs with thunder and .

Fortunately it looks to break for the weekend, at least here in southern Wisconsin.

Just like Tuscaloosa south of about University Blvd. to the western/northern suburbs of Birmingham, or the Moore/Norman/Newcastle area of central Oklahoma.

I was noticing on the live shots and skycams how green it already is getting in Alabama. Jelly.

The next round is firing up now over western MS. They have a lot of energy yet to work with.

Dorian was from '19.

That first trough he posted looks kinda sexy. Nice negative tilt with the left exit region nosing into west-central IL (kinda similar to 3/15/16 in that regard, actually).

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point within the area outlined by the contour (or technically, to the right of the contour line, which is actually drawn as an arrow chasing its tail).

Lots of cloud breaks and some areas with full sun across MS this morning.

I would have agreed with this until the overnight CAM runs and now this morning's observed soundings; both painting an increasingly ominous picture.

I believe their standard is 50 miles.

I think a lot of the people who have been trumpeting that expected the La Nina to hang on longer than it did. That said, today/tomorrow could get plenty dangerous in the South and there probably will be more systems later on down the line. I wouldn't mind another crack at something like last March 28th without all the morning junk. Or at least March 15th, 2016. Glimpsed the EF2 near Hanna City, IL that day. First and only time I've seen a confirmed tornado on an actual chase, but it was just a brief glimpse in the post-dusk lightning flashes.

Well, that didn't take long. @cheese007 and @TexMexWx got the first high risk, yearly tornado count obviously still TBD. Place your bets/guesses for the second high risk!

I was wondering when someone was going to throw their hat in the ring for tomorrow. There were some model solutions yesterday that had me second-guessing my call that it stays moderate, but the ominous trends have stalled or reversed themselves (slightly) in subsequent runs. A mid-day upgrade is still possible pending day-of trends (kind of like on 4/28/14), but at the moment I'm not expecting a high risk on tomorrow's initial (or even second) Day 1 outlook.

At last check, I wasn't aware of anyone who was following the science and doing their part to combat the most severe pandemic in 102 years who was also wearing gas masks and holding up signs saying "The End is Nigh." I'll let you know if I see any.

One year ago today, panic buying in full swing at my local grocery stores. Luckily I was able to find enough toilet paper at a Walgreen's to get my fiancee and I through that period without having to resort to "alternate" methods.

NE'ward progress of precip seems to have stalled in the far SW corner of Dane Co. (and it's probably not even reaching the ground there).

I wondered earlier if that might become an issue with the howling easterly wind.

Well, we've been holding off on starting this thread, but with one decent Plains chase event (especially by mid-March standards) already in the books and a potentially significant severe event for Dixie looming on Wednesday, it's time to start gazing into crystal balls for what the rest of 2021 might bring as far as those rotating columns of air in contact with the ground goes. I'm going to go with 1,200 tornadoes and first (perhaps only) high risk April 6. As has been hashed out in lots of good discussion on this and other forums by knowledgeable people like @andyhb and @Fred Gossage, the indicators are kind of muddled. There are some that weigh heavily towards an active and dangerous season, especially early and in Dixie (see Day 3 outlook, lol) and others that say "not so fast!" (especially towards those media outlets and Twitterheads throwing a 2011 repeat on the table). Wednesday could go HIGH but my gut tells me it stays capped at MDT and plays out with a ceiling similar to last Easter.

SPC's Day 3 Enhanced risk clips the northeast corner of Louisiana, with the New Orleans area in the slight risk. You'd probably be OK to travel but definitely stay weather aware.

Wow, MKX actually went with a WWA for Dane.

Couplet looked nasty there for a minute, but ramped down again on the next scan.

I mean, I can't be THAT wrong at 84 hours...can it?