CheeselandSkies

Seems to be a few breaks in eastern IA/northern IL. Would like to see them expand, though and/or that clearing in MO expand NE'ward. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-IL-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

00Z HRRR is strongly suggestive of some fun along or just south of the I-80 corridor in IL tomorrow afternoon/evening. Of course, this would land during the only 3-day period in which I have to work from last Wednesday through this coming Thursday. Took off last Wednesday/Thursday, Friday/Saturday were my "weekend" since I worked today. So it'll be work tomorrow, get off at noon, race to the target area, chase, go home and go back to work at 3AM Tuesday. Then I have Wednesday/Thursday off since I'm working next weekend.

Who would have believed that the three deadliest tornadoes since Udall (1955) would all occur within less than a month of each other, with nothing else even close in the 56 years before or 10 years since?

Well THAT brings clarity for the quality of the rest of chase season.

Gadzoiks. Right on the path of the infamous 2010 EF4, too.

That 18Z run of the 3KM NAM also has that intriguing surface low in Iowa (that the 12Z "low-res" NAM had) with a small area of backed surface flow ahead of the triple point.

Several warnings ongoing in far SE MN and across that belt of Wisconsin from just north of La Crosse to just south of Green Bay that has seen just about all the action so far this spring. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0476.html

There we have it on the Day 2 update. Slight goes to about the I-80 corridor, marginal with 2% tornado to the WI/IL border. Confoundingly, the 12Z 3KM NAM is much less impressive with the environment over E IA/N IL tomorrow evening than is its coarser cousin. The latter makes it look like a definite local chase day with a nice little 996MB mesolow over eastern IA. The 3K, not so much.

Enhanced upgrade up for wind in KS. Was expecting it moreso in the Lower MS Valley risk area.

Chase mode activated.

Yep. 3KM NAM hardly breaks out anything over the "prime" risk area but plenty of storms over the upper Midwest. HRRR concurs but is more robust with development in the current Slight/hatched area as well.

Those are pretty high CAPE values for 06Z (1 AM CDT), but not entirely unexpected that there would be a capping layer at that time of night.

Sure would have been nice if it came with some Gulf moisture and storm chances.

Dust blowing around like Oklahoma in the 1930s out there today.

Seems like it's a given there every spring. Plains/MW not so much. * I will say, awfully nice to come on here and see five weather threads above "Coronavirus."

We'll see how things look in a month, but would have been nice if things would have gotten going a bit earlier.

Well, these last few days have saved it from being totally pathetic, but this April will still come in at only a little over 1/3 of average for tornado count, and just two EF3+ with this one added.

Little popcorn showers lighting up across southern WI now. Wasn't really expecting anything today. They're small, scattered and brief but at this point we need every drop we can get.

Except the early week storms in Wisconsin missed here to the north.

Never confirmed by radar (TDS) or spotters. IMO that wording shouldn't be used unless it is (confirmed). Edit: Looked like there might have been a TDS there at 0224 and 0226 UTC, but the warning statement didn't include that. They said "radar indicated rotation" instead of "radar confirmed tornado."

The header says March?

48 in Milwaukee rn, so glad I no longer live there.

IMO it should look and feel outside like it does here rn every day from now until the summer solstice.

Oh, believe me, that is happening.

Seems to be the default mode now. How bogus is it that we have a warm front draped across southern Wisconsin in late April, we're expected to nearly hit 80, and we don't have a substantial threat? My lifelong interest in following the weather is rapidly dwindling.