CheeselandSkies

Interesting how this storm started out well south of the 4/27/11 track through Greene/Tuscaloosa/Jefferson Counties but is now basically on top of it from Ohatchee up toward Cave Spring, GA.

Myself included?

To be fair, the hodos were insane on the forecast soundings across *all* modeling going into this event. If the observed evolution deviates substantially from that, it will be a major fail of NWP. *Note that I am NOT calling for that, yet, but it sure does seem that high-ceiling severe weather threats are on a long streak of never evolving as expected.

Had to be. Should have looked like Tuscaloosa or Cordova from 4/27/11.

It's still down. It may not be an EF3+ but there's something there with a visible couplet so close to the radar.

Still early in the event, surface low hasn't really started to deepen yet, plus it's getting really close to the BMX NEXRAD site. Ground clutter will become an issue here shortly if it hasn't already.

Deepening surface lows do amazing things WRT LLJ response/backing low level winds. This trough has the perfect amount of negative tilt to allow classic, uninterrupted veering of the winds from the surface on up to the tropopause. It's debatable how much of a negating factor certain degrees of veer-backing really are, but it's not even an issue today.

Maybe for your specific area, but for the event as a whole I think there's just too much that's highly favorable to get by without at least a few significant tornadoes tomorrow. My floor for tomorrow is basically a slightly more intense repeat of last Wednesday (add 1 or 2 long-track EF3+), and that's if the warm sector is quite messy.

@Fred Gossage just made a great point on another forum, which is that on the 18Z HRRR, you can watch the "junk" updrafts die out with time as the supercells mature and are able to dominate the environment. It was not portraying this evolution leading up to last Wednesday.

Looks like some much-needed precip for lower Michigan and Ontario. That deepening bodes ominous signs for the South tomorrow.

Category upgrade driven by 30% hail area, tornado probs upped to 5%.

Enhanced risk coming for parts of east Texas.

Was fairly common before 2015 or so. May 4-10, 2003 had four, so did May 22-30, 2004 and three between May 22 and June 5, 2008. In fact, 4-6 per year was the general expectation from the 1990s through the early 2010s (2010 had six including one in October, 2011 had five including back-to-back on April 26-27); except in real dud years like 2000 and 2009. Then dud years started becoming the rule rather than the exception.

Thursday's gonna be another one of those "respect the polygon" days...

Not really impressed with the rain so far. Was expecting a good downpour at some point today. Haven't really had that (at no point have I been able to hear the rain coming down from inside).

"WOOO-HOOOO! HEY YOU GUYS! WOOO-HOOOOO!"

When the NAM has PDS TOR forecast soundings with jaw-dropping hodographs (and 5/4/2003 analogs) up the wazoo and it's one of the more subdued solutions...

Leaving the store this evening the air had that smell of impending rain.

Is anybody really surprised?

The LLJ problem is why I was skeptical of the high risk until the overnight models Tuesday into last Wednesday (when it seemed like less of an issue, at least according to the CAMs) and the 45% "let's tie the 4/27/11 probs over the exact same area" always seemed like an odd choice to me.

Good thing is it's the fantasy range GFS, and it kinda flies in the face of the nationwide torchy pattern being predicted by the climate models for April, right?

I sat in Forreston (near top center of the map) for awhile that afternoon, then felt like the atmosphere was taking too long to recover from the pre-warm frontal clouds and showers, plus generally low expectations for an early April setup that far north (3/15/16 and 2/28/17 had yet to occur, lol); turned around and went home, arriving just in time to pull up GR Level 3 and watch the debris ball track ~20 some miles from where I'd just been. If I'd stuck it out for just another 20-30 minutes I probably would have clued in on the rapid changes taking place in the lower atmosphere (or if I'd had access to mobile data on the road, which I wouldn't until I jumped on the smartphone bandwagon in 2017). What is it with May and June being dead in this region after 2016 (apart from 2019, which while the results weren't spectacular there were at least opportunities); with our regional chase "season" consisting of one day way closer to the cold season than seems right (2/28/17 and 12/1/18 being particularly egregious, also 3/28/20 which busted anyway compared to its ceiling) and one random day in the mid-late summer (7/19/18, 8/10/20)?

Maybe worth it if you're (very) local, not so much if you have a 3-4 hour drive to and from the target area and work at 3 AM the next day (like me). I really need more clear-cut setups unless they're literally right in MBY, and those have been in short supply in this region these last several years. Of course, the atmosphere tried to gift me Rochelle day in 2015 and I managed to screw that up, too.

Yeah, this does not sound anywhere near a 12/1/18 potential. That was a sneaky day but I don't think THIS sneaky...the area of interest was at least in a marginal risk for the Day 2.

Day 2 marginal introduced...for the far southern MS valley, lol.