CheeselandSkies

Nope. These Greek cyclones have been a whole 'nother season in and of themselves (apart from Laura, Sally and Teddy). Trend of heavily west-loaded/close-to-land intensification holds with Eta, but it's finally producing the kind of jaw-dropping satellite porn I expected out of this season...in Sept./early Oct. Kinda annoying that the WPAC snuck in Goni first, though. In the end, forecasts of extreme activity in the Atlantic were spot-on, even though it didn't play out in quite the fashion most observers, experts and amateurs alike, anticipated.

Mother of all weenie runs from GFS/GFS-Para and Euro over the last few cycles...and the mother of all weenie satellite images ongoing ATTM. Only took 28 tries and the month of November, but the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is finally doing what we all thought it would.

Recon right now (disabled embedding because otherwise the link won't start at the time I want): https://youtu.be/M9Yww9LG3gw?t=234

Well son of a *****, that was dumb.

I highly doubt they ever reduced the peak intensity. Maybe one of those cases where it wasn't explicitly shown because it would occur between 12-hour forecast points.

Ugh. Was really hoping this Nina would help kill the "Blob" of warm anomalies further north. It has been mucking up the flow over North America and thus the Plains/Midwest spring tornado seasons for the better part of the last decade.

Yeah, that is pointless. My opinion is that: 1.) The criteria for retirement are getting too loose nowadays, especially for cyclones that make U.S. landfall. The only one that should really be in consideration from this year is Laura. Keep it to those storms that are truly cataclysmic/historic for the respective areas impacted. 2.) Keep the rotating six lists, but add three rotating lists of auxiliary names that can be used should the number of named storms exceed 21.

Right. The original point of TC naming was to keep them better differentiated in forecast/warning bulletins. These could get confusing real quick.

Some of the wildest footage I've seen in some time out of this. Combination of a daylight landfall and a storm that was strong but not so strong that all you saw was a wall of white.

That and there's still the possibility of more hurricanes mucking up the moisture trajectories from the Gulf. For a long stretch broken only by the marginal-risk uber-derecho, the weather in this region has been maddeningly quiescent.

The interesting thing about Zeta and also Sally from earlier this year was that the "half-a-cane" structure was really only apparent on radar. The IR and visible presentations looked quite vigorous all the way around, in contrast to storms like Katrina and Irma (for its Marco Island landfall) where the back sides became noticeably degraded on satellite in the last hours before landfall.

One of our meteorologists just walked in sporting one of these...I know what I'm ordering! https://helicity.co/collections/face-masks/products/radar-face-mask

Oh for sure, ACE isn't the only useful measure of a season. But, if you have nearly 30 named storms with an ACE value of around 150, it tells you something about those storms in general vs. if the ACE were around 250. It tells you that conditions were insanely favorable for tropical cyclongenesis in the Atlantic in 2020, but for whatever reason did not support Irma or Ivan-caliber, 40-70 ACE beasts that maintain clear stadium eyes for days on end. That's all it does. Of course it doesn't tell you anything about impacts, nor is it designed to.

HWRF once again nailed the medium-range IR presentation, depicting just about what is shown above on the run yesterday morning. Its reputation as a clown model is somewhat undeserved, IMO. It definitely has an excessive deepening bias at longer ranges especially with invests that haven't actually formed into tropical cyclones yet. Give it an established cyclone and it has been downright uncanny with structure and intensity in the short to medium range.

ACE is the place with the tropical weenie folks.

Of course, the phase has to actually happen. We thought that was going to happen with Cristobal and it was a big ol' nothingburger around here despite being the first actual warm-core cyclone to track through Wisconsin since the remnants of Gilbert in 1988, and setting a record low June MSLP at KMSN.

This is why I never buy the first round of intensity estimates. Too many moving parts. Almost every expected strong storm comes in weaker, and vice versa.

Can we at least get some severe weather outbreaks before the cold really locks in? Upcoming pattern after this little tease of winter looks to turn milder but maddeningly quiescent, which seems to be the rule in this region of late apart from some random day in August.

I think he's referring to the anti-lockdown protests (armed buffoons in the MI state capitol, etc) which pre-dated the racial justice protests.

Hopefully it means an end to this highs in the 30s in Oct crap.

Also that the WPAC, apparently out of spite, supposedly caused some of the Atlantic systems' struggles by Typhoon Maysak contributing to the formation of a TUTT in the Atlantic in September which reduced the intensity/longevity of some of the MDR systems.

Send it 75 miles north, please.

Sounds about right.

One last hurrah for some rumblers tomorrow? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html