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Found 6 results

  1. Time for a thread! Looks like possible heavy snow inside our Region. Some areas could get ice under the snow. Dynamic system with strong push of low level cold air is forecast.. First the ice consideration is due to rapid low level CAA into West Tenn. and West Ky. Mid levels still warm at onset, part of the TROWAL, so it could be ice. Hopefully not but... More interesting is the TROWAL forecast from the Mid-South to Kentucky. Could go as far north as Indiana. Could slide right across our region. Wouldn't that be great? Euro seems too far north; yes, it's still my favorite model. In this seasonably cold winter GFS needs more respect. NAM follows it more east/south. So, I'm confident enough to start a thread for our Region. TROWALs are great in the South, because they let us kind of cheat and get snow without cold air solidly in place. This time, confidence is added by robust low level CAA too. Upstairs WAA goes into a core that is cold enough for snow, convenient. Dynamic cooling plays a role. Snowfall rates can approach/match those in other robust WAA conveyor belts (in contrast to meh comma heads). Big challenge is that a TROWAL is basically a mesoscale feature. It will be tough to pin down the big winners early. Rest of us can hope for that low level CAA to change over other parts of the rain shield, but it will be difficult. Mid-levels (700 mb) will not be ideal for snow production outside the TROWAL. However thickness crashes farther upstairs and that low level CAA... Did we get slammed about this time in Jan. 2011, a similar analog year?
  2. All the others have their threads, so we're late to the game. Will this be a Nina winter as advertised, and if so, what intensity? If we can achieve weak Nina, it can mean good times ahead for the Valley region. Some of our most epic winters have came during that pattern, including the legendary 1984-85 winter that crushed the entire Mid-South/Tennessee Valley with heavy snows and record shattering cold. As always, many factors go into making a winter though, as we saw in 2011-2012 when the weak Nina mattered not at all and the winter was hardly a winter at all. Looking at some of the analog years, even including the bad winters, almost all areas West of the Apps are below normal in the temps department during weak Nina years. Strong Ninas flip the script however and we are often very warm during intense Nina years. I will take a further look at some of the analogs and at real data across the Valley during these years later on.
  3. For the Tuesday update I would lift the slight into West Kentucky and get the ENH into northern Mississippi - perhaps Memphis. Warm front WF will probably get into West Tenn. Might make it to West Ky. Severe parameters including a screaming low level jet will augment the squall line from the WF south. Upper winds may be less backed than forecast if a lead wave can eject ahead of the bowling ball. A couple leading edge tornadoes would not surprise me. Unfortunately it may be after dark east of the Mississippi River. I'm expecting several to numerous damaging straight line reports, esp if some line echo wave patterns LEWPs can establish. Looks like a set-up favorable to LEWPs esp after dark. Good news farther east is relatively more stable air should keep Alabama, Mid and East Tennessee safe.
  4. July 1, 2014: I uploaded this video that was sent to me from Adam Felts. Adam works on a barge. The video was shot around 6 pm - July 1, 2014 Radar clearly showed an area of rotation that moved out of southeast Missouri across the Mississippi River into western Kentucky. This is near Columbus, Kentucky - on the Mississippi River. The rotation on radar continued from Hickman County, Kentucky into Carlisle and Graves County, Kentucky. I don't believe I have seen too many videos like this. It makes one wonder how many small gustnadoes (in this case some may call it a waterspout) occur. It is the belief of some that they are a lot more common than we realize. They can last seconds to a few minutes. They can occasionally be strong enough to destroy mobile homes (and cause other damage). Here is the video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7bPv1nZPXw Here is a radar image - this is actually a few minutes after the video was taken. The rotation has moved about 5-8 miles from where the video was taken. The storm exhibited rotation for quite awhile. You can see the Mississippi River near Columbus, Kentucky. The storm has entered Carlisle County, Kentucky on this radar scan.
  5. I did something like this a couple of years ago, but lost all of the charts. So, I'll try again. Season snowfall totals (July 1 to June 30) for all of the first order long term sites in the Midwest. I'm doing it one state at a time...for IL, IN, IA, KY, MI, MN, MO, OH, and WI. Up first, the great state of Illinois. Others soon to follow. I will update/or add the 2013-14 numbers for all when we're done. Illinois Season Snowfall Totals Chicago: 1884-85 to present Moline: 1884-85 to present Peoria: 1884-85 to present Rockford: 1905-06 to present Springfield: 1884-85 to present
  6. With multiple model runs of potential snow coming Sunday evening into Monday for the region, I figured I'd go ahead and start a thread. We have several potential storms to track in this period and these threads will help keep them centralized and separate. The last 24-36 hours of model runs have been showing a good potential for a snow event in Tennessee or Southern Kentucky. A frontal boundry will pass the area bringing rain and behind it, colder air will filter into the region. This cold front will stall out somewhere to our South and East. A wave of Low Pressure will form and ride along the front. As of now the track looks to go from Southern Alabama into Central or North Georgia. According to how far the front sags is how far south air cold enough for frozen precip will make it. The GFS this morning puts it very close to the KY/TN border, while the NAM is slightly further south. The rain snow line will waffle around for the next several days. On the change over line there is a high potential for both sleet and freezing rain to occur. The HPC updated their day 3 graphic to this. The 06z NAM snowfall map shows the extreme potential of the event for someone, The HPC official stance as of now is for Kentucky to be in the better area for snow, but for Ice in this area.
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