nrgjeff

I have watched USFL football. Nice to have it on weekends again. However I am counting down to NFL and College.

Unfortunately the heat this week will be more South concentrated than I imagined last week. Humidity will be lower, but temps higher. Combo probably still is lower heat indices than last week. Good ol' Southern tricky front ushers in beautiful high press a few days; then, upper ridge builds back over and hot! Looks like AQ advisories for some metros. If it's not humidity it's haze. Global wind and some MJO forecasts hint at the ridge migrating West in July. However with normal temps rising, and slightly AN forecast, sensible weather may not ease up much. Also the stubborn PNA and ABNA which want to stay about where they are. Perhaps those more specific forecasts will be less accurate than the GW and MJO.

Same here Friday. Wind blew, and no rain at my house. Lawn was hanging in there, but this week is going to be ugly no matter how much watering. Will water lightly and force the lawn to limp through.

Welcome home! Your Oregon Coast gale might beat my Kansas shelf cloud this year. Now back to hot humid life in Tenn. Next week looks like the SER tries to reload, even if under a passing GL to Northeast trough. Been a while since we've got sustained SER in summer tbh. Maybe week 3 will be more sane. Models want to retrograde the Midwest ridge. Even if week 4 is back to AN temps, it has a more spread out feel vs concentrated ridge. Think positive, or at least less crazy heat. How long until college football? LOL!

We had a sub-par storm chase in the Plains. Definitely should have stayed here for the meteors. Plus I know the daytime hiking weather was also fantastic here.

Monday I agree that Minnesota is the primary target (MN Storms). Chasers with the time and energy should get up there. We will probably target the south end in Neb. Kan. Note a frontal occlusion is forecast between targets Monday; so, it's one or the other. South target the DL and CF separate again. Also the front from the North low may drape in such a way to act like a stationary front east of the South TP. Sunday night rain may also deposit outflow boundaries for Monday. Finally Monday LLJ will be strong South too; so, it should anchor such east-west boundaries. Good for Monday Madness. Again the day could be more historic up in Minn. We have to play south target in case the chase goes into Tuesday.

Observed sculped low-top structure on the Cumberland Plateau between Spencer and Sparta, Tenn. However no lightning. Almost reminded me of tropical remnants. Except it's 20 degrees cooler up there (Thursday vs a tropical day lower elevation). The surface wind was howling though.

Sunday and Monday are clear eastern ND and western Minn. Checks air fare to MSP. Details 3rd paragraph. First Saturday, I would target just behind the boundary intersection near the Black Hills. Roads are not ideal, but terrain can help even if the SPC fades the set-up. Black Hills are behind the cap (good) - and boundaries (meh) so, it is a pure terrain play. Sun/Mon both feature double short waves and double surface responses. Yes 3-4 days out, but models are not going to blow that basic type of forecast. Trouble is northern waves drag up warm 850 Ts ahead of southern waves. Gosh, like forecasting snow busts in the South! OK back to the Plains. Nebraska gets boundary intersections. Excellent CAPE is under worst cap. Easier cap is right on or behind boundaries. You know, I don't like right on boundary initiation any better than just-in-time moisture. Eastern North Dakota and Minnesota enjoy a better set-up IMHO Sun/Mon. Frontal waves and perhaps warm front intersection with more traditional boundaries. Less cap. Still good CAPE. Said boundaries promote local SRH. Someone on another forum mentions June 17, 2010 but who knows. Saw after making my thoughts. Tuesday (or as early as Monday Neb.) could still go Nebraska Kansas, but LLJ moves out as main trough ejects. That's faster for Tuesday, and takes away a solid chase day. Bottom line: Sunday and Monday look like the kind of days that can work out eastern ND western Minn. Saturday junk will deposit other boundaries for Sunday. Rinse and repeat Mon. Maybe Tue.

Boundary intersection in Kentucky. Goodie that terrain! Sarcastic. Second chance if Gulf front can lift north enough to intersect pre-frontal trough in Alabama or Georgia. Doubtful. Hoosier Alley is probably the preferred location, but I'm not interested enough to go into their Regional forum, lol.

Even before seeing MRX severe discussion, MRX mention of mountain wave means the LLJ will be there. Unless Gulf MCS cuts it off, but looks OK. Dews will be there. It's late May not March; so, MCS does is much less a deal killer here. If Mississippi is 5% Wednesday, Alabama is certainly 5% Thursday. That's some easy pickings. Day 2 update would not surprise me; but, they might wait until Day 1. Thursday the 700 and 500 mb winds are not as straight south as Wed. More SSW. 200 mb is south, so some VBV; but again late season, those minor problems are not deal killers like in March. CAPE looks skinny, esp low levels, so heating will have to over achieve. LI is definitely there; so, just low level CAPE has to come in. Look for pre-frontal trough Bama to East Tenn. Perhaps outflow intersection with it. Today and tonight rain will provide plenty of boundaries.

Starting to believe a Northern Plains Upper Midwest sequence is on-tap beginning this weekend. Too good to be true again? Let's look under the hood. We have reeled it well into the 6-10 day; so, I'm cautiously optimistic. Models smodels, but they are a tool. I look for failure modes, like forecasting snow in the South, haha. Any tropical depressions look buried south Gulf or Yucatan, greater than 15 degrees away from the US trough - no impact if models are right. Probably no TD anyway. Back to the hemispheric pattern forecast; well, it's amazing Rockies trough with Mid-Atlantic ridge. Looking at the Indian Ocean and Pacific satellite.. MJO and Kelvin Waves are supportive. Pacific jet extension is robust; look for that to poke in North America and retract, yielding the Rockies trough. Global Wind is falling, which is favorable for that pattern in late May early June. As for the meso-scale and daily details, see the original post by @Quincy I totally agree. This time of year I'll take broad trough with subtle waves. Boundary forecasting will also be paramount - usually the morning of. Barring a major debacle (which is less and less likely) we are going to tee up a sequence for the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Happy and SAFE chasing!

Thank you John. We all appreciate you watering, lol! I last watered Friday right after mowing, to reduce stress on it. Fortunately that's not necessary for a while now.

Yes I'm working on an inch plus of rain already. Might get nearly that much more, but probably another half. Then more later this week. Lawn is happy. I am happy. No more watering!

Weenie Warning! Can we do this again in January? That'd be money for anyone I-65 east. Mid-South usually scores off a different pattern. Oh wait, in winter the last slug of moisture in Alabama would fall apart on the way in here. Actually it usually does not, but I'm being cynical here. Bama delivers. From the northwest snow dies in downslope off the Plateau into KCHA.

Sat. May 21: Boundary intersection forecast WSW of MEM this afternoon in the flat Ark. Delta. Technically not our Region, but I'm thinking about chasing it. Boundary intersection is outflow / quasi-cold front, not preferred. Rather have a pre-frontal trough away from the CF. However instability is robust. Also modest LLJ flow is forecast. Upper levels are modest too. In late May that is great with high CAPE. Just the boundary pair is not my preferred combo. CF and WF drawn IL/IN. Yellow is outflow. Magenta is possible boundary intersection forecasts. Idea is just get toward MEM. Normally I go through HSV (few trucks) but probably BNA to offer flexibility if Kentucky pops. Still the best shear looks Ark/Tenn/Miss. General Public notes: This is a low probability event. Bored on a Saturday. Awaiting Gam 4s in NHL and NBA and USFL Sunday.