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About nrgjeff

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    KC Chiefs!

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  • Location:
    Chattanooga, TN
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    Storm chasing, Energy weather, Winter storms, hiking and skiing, U. Kansas and Wichita State basketball, Chattanooga FC, Chatt Lookouts, UTC Mocs, FC Wichita, Sporting KC, Royals and Chiefs. Twitter @nrgJeff

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  1. EPS just went colder hour 360. Normally that's banter, but check out the buffet line of teleconnections Carvers mentions just above. Issue has been a raging +WPO (warm) vs everything else cold. If a true +PNA develops (with Hawaii ridge) that could be what breaks toward colder here in the Southeast. -NAO too of course; but, some +PNA could fight off the WPO. Billiard ball meteorology, lol!
  2. I missed this thread over the long weekend. Per water vapor and 12Z charts a true short-wave slide through the Deep South below Tennessee. Hence post-frontal snow verified at or above forecast. Chattanooga proper only had flurries - shocker there. Dusting fell up on Signal Mountain. Congrats to all who enjoyed snow, esp if above expectations.
  3. Agree with those who do not worry too much about the weekly forecasts. They've been awful past week 3 since the dinosaurs were around. Both have badly missed cold snaps. Rest of November probably will get back closer to normal for Thanksgiving. Works for me and Chattanooga's Holiday on the Landing. December could start out colder than shown. WPO wants to go positive which is a warm signal, but perhaps more consequential for the Plains. Meanwhile the PNA wants to go positive, a cool signal here. Models are clueless and maybe too warm. It's a rare event when I lean colder than NWP, but this might be one of those times. I'm still mild December, but not as warm as those weeklies.
  4. China Met Admin is going fairly mild for China this winter. If the current wavelength holds (Asia Bering North American) ABNA the USA could be mild too. Of course different wavelengths and MJO pulses will add variability. Like right now, brrrr.
  5. Typically I fade cold chasing rain and post-frontal junk. Chattanooga will whiff; that's easy! However the strength of cold air and lingering moisture may actually squeeze out the dusting Middle and Western Tenn. 2m temps are forecast around freezing, vs just-in-time cold there. Orographic areas (TRI) may see slight snow too. Knox to MRX is a crap shoot. Looking ahead I'm starting to buy the cold balance of November. How does it look for the rest of winter? Last year failed, but we have a key difference this year. GLAAM is going negative this year. It hung up positive last year, then the cold pattern broke down after December. This is is different, but I'm not promising all cold. I'm still a little bearish. However it should be colder than last year. QBO remains positive, but a downward trend would interest me. I'm almost 100% trend (delta) over initial reading. Downward trend would be bullish. NWP flirts with strato warming but I think it's still too early to bank on that. My gut says cold Great Lakes with occasional bleed South. SER may poke back up occasionally. At any rate I survived the time change. I'm getting used to the cold. I'm asking Southeast forum when the NC ski areas open. Attitude adjustment complete. Bring on winter!
  6. Yuge college football weekend! Tennessee will beat UK I believe. Alabama and LSU is kind of like forecasting snow with a 540 thickness. In Chattanooga that's only 50/50, lol!
  7. Tis the season for cold chasing snow in the Valley; and, chaos on 441. Perhaps I've never noticed in years past, but Chattanooga's Lookout Mtn, Raccoon Mtn, and Signal Mtn appear to all be peaking color at the same time top to bottom. Usually the top is past peak when the bottom is lit. Might be one more good weekend of foliage viewing. Better late than never. Also color looks good. Drought is not a deal killer if spring is rainy (it was). Rain returned recently, but that was after trees started going to sleep anyway. Spring rain is why they made it through the drought. Thinking about local hikes around Chatty. Other possibilities include Cherokee NF, and Little River Canyon, AL. Prentice Cooper would be great; but, I think it's closed for hunting attm. Anybody else notice good color top to bottom of mountains and ridges?
  8. Looks like you had awesome color this year. I got apathetic with the drought; but, should have known spring was rainy so all is good. Congrats to all who scored fantastic foliage! Now it looks cold through November. Anybody heard anything about NC ski areas opening dates? Thank you!
  9. ECMWF weeklies keep delaying the break-down of the blocking by a week. So, another week of cold is shown. Nice having everything earlier with the time change.
  10. Cold chasing rain. You all know I fade everything though. As for November, all cold does have a 70% continuation. Sure LY failed but that's the 30%. So, we'll see if we can get a cold Novie. I'm trying to improve my winter attitude. Rather than dread cold short days, look fwd to Appalachian snow skiing!
  11. Snow in October. That's bearish winter right? LOL Weeklies both agree warm back half of November. Cancel winter. Just kidding! It's banter.
  12. Oh lovely. Anything really happening up that way? How much wind is really mixing down? Appreciate ground reports.
  13. I'm ready for May. Cold front hasn't even really crossed the Plateau and I'm already tired of winter. I mean it doesn't snow anymore in KCHA so what's the point?
  14. Escalated quickly per severe wx thread. Halloween front may finally break the SER. Always takes a few tries. Cool first half of November looks reasonable. Key will be second half. If November is mostly cold I will quit with my bearish barrage. Otherwise, the SER should occasionally visit per 07-08 and 08-09 winters. NWP will be awful for a few days with competing signals and competing areas of tropical convection.
  15. Thanks Carvers for the foliage report. Started getting some change around here too. Regrettably weekend rain and clouds will kill what could have been a nice outing between 2,000 and 4,000 FT. Maybe next weekend at lower elevations. Recent years the weekend after Halloween is still good. The 11-15 day actually might get cold per guidance. Looks like a little more support relative to the now 1-5 day stall. More ridging entire north Pac this time, if correct. Euro weeklies are cooler than the CFS, for those who don't get the Euro. Debate is whether the PNA lines up right, or opposite. Riding GOA or northwest NA? Easiest black/white or red/blue difference is Hawaii. Looks like the PNA will drive the outcome. Keep in mind it's a 4-point teleconnection. GOA, Hawaii, northwest NA, and our beloved Southeast. Few times last year and now recently the PNA explained otherwise strange blocking behavior.