nrgjeff
Meteorologist-
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About nrgjeff
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Go Astros! Houston Strong!
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SAI tends to work better in conjunction with pressure patterns. Snow advance should include AN pressure in Siberia over BN press in China. Such a pattern is blocky in Asia. Snow advance with BN press in Siberia and AN press in China is just a fast active early season jet stream, but mild. Keep it simple. Look for a blocky pattern in Asia and hope North America gets blocky a few weeks later. Conversely slow snow advance may not be a deal killer if the pressure patterns are set up right. Maybe just dry in Siberia? A slow advance with zonal Asian jet stream would of course be discouraging to snow lovers. Still, it is just one tool. I post in SE since we need blocking more than most regions.
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October is a tricky time for the weeklies. If we get a quick cool-down followed by warm, esp with a GOA, I will start becoming skeptical of much in the way of winter. If a western North America ridge can re-establish I'll be more optimistic about some sort of winter. ENSO forecasts are not really solid yet either. How strong of a La Nina? In four weeks many of these questions will clear up. Winter will still be up in the air, but at least we will get some better signals. For now, enjoy football even though it's baseball weather.
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Sometimes it is even worse, like taking stock tips, lol! Believe much will come down to the North Pac and GOA low behavior. I want to say La Nina and -QBO is variable with hope. Avoiding a GOA deal killer is paramount.
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Tuesday looks like a short window of opportunity in eastern SD and adjacent areas of southwest Minnesota. Though the NAM has amped up CAPE and LI, lapse rates may not be quite that high. However, a local area of excellent turning of wind with height is forecast. An isolated cell ahead of the line could get going along the boundary intersection with the polar front/dry line hybrid. Another option for rotation is early in the life cycle of the main line. SPC touches on rotation but seems somewhat of an after thought. Mostly cloudy skies are forecast through early to mid-afternoon. Quicker clearing would allow greater heating and perhaps more tornado risk.
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GFS tends to catch storms first when an MJO pulse is in our hemisphere, like now. Otherwise the GFS has 9 out of every 2 storms (borrowed from M Smith). At any rate, now with a named storm I will take the Euro without question. As for strength, Puerto Rico and its mountains may take one for the Mainland. I feel bad for PR, but on the centerline NHC track, the island will weaken Maria faster than forecast.
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Royals bullpen is a total disaster this season. Frankly, it is more ineffective than the UN vs the DPRK. Royals batters have tried to overcome the quant defense, but KC was always about pitching and defense. KC championship team was built around the pen, but it is decimated.
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Euro weeklies showed a little consistence for once. Weeks 1-2 are still shown warm. Weeks 3-4 are closer to normal. CFS goes cooler those weeks. Euro might be missing a cold front or two. Despite the La Nina watch I would not give up on winter yet. The deeper we get into Nina, of course the warmer the signal. However the QBO will be fighting it. I am watching the North Pacific SSTs. If those cool anomalies make it to the West Coast then I might throw in the towel. Confidence will be better in about a month. Let's see how September averages out and how October starts. Cool Aug. Sept. Oct. correlate with cold winter. Though causation is not guaranteed in cookbook meteorology, it is still another valid tool.
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Classic La Nina chart for North America. If the North Pac continues to cool relative to normal, I will buy it!
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Hope Houston goes to the WS. Cleveland is better than any AL East vermin. Oh, that NL West looks powerful...
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Carolina Alley plus Georgia storm chasing should be good!
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Brutal for those out! Sounds like individual lines out vs whole block. They will restore large lines and groups first. It's all about the ACE. Sounds like a song.
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My fake owl fell down. We will rebuild, lol!
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Euro weeklies are warm next week through end of Sept. Right as the month changes, October resumes a cool look here. Mild North so no early polar pigs. Leaves should continue ahead of schedule all elevations. Chattanooga winds of 25 mph gusting to 40 mph. Basically it is like any March day in Kansas but with rain. Could be a little higher toward 02Z but I'm thinking my lights stay on. Higher elevations could be more tricky. Low clouds are really screaming and Doppler radar confirms.
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Some sort of LLJ from Upstate SC into northeast Georgia. Of course it's mixing down. Models had it. Doppler forewarned. Surface confirms. Irma-ing. Stay safe!
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Georgia has 500,000+ customers without power. Hopefully that does not get up in here. Atlanta power outages are increasing; however, it is above 1,000 FT. I am hoping being at 500 FT helps Chatty duck the peak winds. Regardless, looks like an interesting night.
