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About nrgjeff

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Chattanooga, TN
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    Storm chasing, Energy weather, Winter storms, hiking and skiing, U. Kansas and Wichita State basketball, Chattanooga FC, Chatt Lookouts, UTC Mocs, FC Wichita, Sporting KC, Royals and Chiefs. Twitter @nrgJeff

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  1. Omaha was hawt Monday night! Of course Tennessee won in the Vols way. Let them almost come back and give fans heart failure. Likely watered my lawn for the last time of the season too. We have a chance of rain on Wednesday. Then per usual tough love intensifies into July. Might water it one more time, but frequency drops from every other night to every 3-4 nights (longer though). If this crap continues after July 4 it's a lost cause. Declare independence from watering. It'll come back in Sept. Some of the long-range models and weeklies have temps closer to normal the 3rd week of July. Oh great, when it's hot anyway.
  2. Yes so far temps are under achieving the hype. Core ridge is north, so I guess it's their problem. Lack of rain is verifying though. I have a feeling Sunday front attempt will be dry; first attempt often is dry. Then by midweek maybe the second try. Looks like front vs soft underbelly. Probably same result this time of year, more humid. Front would have pooling moisture. Yard could use the drink though. By next week yards will be very thirsty. Then we have hints at a hot 4th of July week. Weeklies are a little more reliable week 3 in mid-summer vs spring and fall. Guess from there we grind it out until football starts.
  3. Sunday we specialized in orphaned anvils around here. Finally got a shower Sunday evening. Coming on midweek we just have too much ridge in the Valley. Farther west the Mid-South has a little moisture fetch coming around the west side of the ridge. Might take until the middle of next week to break the ridge. Looks like it'll come from the soft underbelly. Front, what's that?
  4. Rocky Mountain and Northern High Plains things. I'll confess I'm jealous. Feel free to react
  5. Been a nice early June. Dewpoints are quite lovely today. Feels very comfortable outside. Unfortunately the gig is up starting about this weekend. Temps will bounce Thursday and Friday, but the humididy might lag a day. This weekend one needs to be near water. By late June looks like a true heat ridge will be sloshing around the US. Oh goodie!
  6. Tis the season for high-resolution models to be clueless. Today the rain was supposed to be MS/AL. It's Tenn. Love it!
  7. Wake me up when September comes.. Green Day is timeless. This thread should probably be pinned. Drop the pin on the Spring thread and put it out of its misery, ha. Still looks like we can avoid major heat for a good chunk of June. The more weeks we chop off the less miserable summer overall.
  8. Apparently West Tennessee had some landspouts over the weekend. I have seen few if any pictures on social media, but MEG did address questions.
  9. Looks more and more like we'll escape major heat for a good chunk of June. We're all mentally prepared for a hot July and August each year; so, I'm not too concerned about those months. Yeah September nights get cooler. The lower sun angle also takes off the edge even during the day.
  10. Any delay of the inevitable SER is welcome. Next week looks slightly warmer than normal, but the split flow variety so nothing too brutal. Also more precip. About a third of the way into June, a big ol' bowling ball of an upper low is progged over the Great Lakes with BN heights into the Valley. We've seen that before in June. AI versions of the ensembles concur so that's good. Eventually the Nina influence will rear its ugly head. I'm afraid a back-loaded summer would drag deep into fall. Closing on a positive, the weekly products are not in a rush to set up the SER.
  11. Weather went about as I expected for three Marginal risk days. We had thunderstorms. Not many were severe. Some were strong. Chattanooga got a good light show or two also. Sunday is a true Slight Risk with Enhanced north. Most of us will probably see morning and then overnight storms and straight wind. Enhanced area might be more interesting Sunday afternoon but rotation is conditional on how the outflow behaves. It's a good Enhanced for wind in my opinion. Monday things depart. How about a mid-Atlantic Slight? Watch the best storm of the week be east of the Appalachians, lol!
  12. Today Northern Illinois into Chicagoland Atmo might be too overturned from the midday MCS. Models that have a robust round 2 later handle the morning MCS poorly, and one simply didn't even initialize it. Back along the Mississippi River could be a different story. As for Chicago, I'm looking forward to midday shelfies with the skyline. Sunday is my main interest. Could start out with a raging MCS too. Difference is that Sunday is a stronger system. After the MCS a second short-wave is progged by most models coming in toward 00Z. Early MCS should leave outflow boundaries. Some will drift south of the synoptic WF and such OFBs would be my main interest to a point. South of I-64 will get away from the best upper support and into questionable terrain. SPC also favors such outflow boundaries for their Sunday Enhanced risk corridor, which I interpret from the WF down to the OFBs. Could also be the most wind reports later. Lincoln, IL mentions the outflow boundaries kind of in passing before getting to the red meat part of the forecast discussion for Sunday. Lincoln, IL discussion looks good for Sunday. ..Forecast soundings (NAM/SREF) Sunday show long, cyclonically curved hodographs along with very steep (>8.5-9.0 C/km) mid level lapse rates supportive of supercells and large hail. 0-1 km bulk shear of 15-25 kt and high SRH (>200 m2/s2) are supportive of supercell tornadoes. Storms should become linear with time with wind then becoming the primary hazard.
  13. Oh yeah the Wednesday evening storms looked nasty up that way. Thursday not as bad? Same boundary is hanging around Friday but lacks robust upper-level support East Tenn. I think West Tenn atmo is too overturned but there's modest upper flow that way. Attention shifts to Sunday. Outflow could get all the way into our region, though SPC has lifted that north with the models. I figure the tornado risk is north of the Ohio River on the warm front Sunday. I'll visit the Oho Valley region to discuss Sunday in more detail. Sunday night the cold front should provide a chance of linear storms here in the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley.
  14. Subvorticy party. That's the most classic example I've seen on video. Looks straight out of the Dr. Fujita textbook. He'd be smiling down if ppl did not succumb to their injuries. We'll just go with, he's vindicated once again.
  15. for Sunday: Although the 30% is Mid-South, the surface low and associated boundaries could very well be Illinois to Indiana. I'd love the WF to be north of I-70. At least I-64. Outflow will likely be in the Mid-South but that's hideous chase terrain. If the atmosphere can recover from morning rain and storms, instability should get north into IL/IN which is already 15%. SPC could be waiting for confidence on Atmo recovery and then destabilization farther north. Their 'concerning pattern' language is notable.
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