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About nrgjeff

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    free agent apocalypse

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    Chattanooga, TN
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    Storm chasing, Energy weather, Winter storms, hiking and skiing, Chattanooga FC, Chatt Lookouts, UTC Mocs, Kansas basketball, FC Wichita, Sporting KC, Royals and Chiefs. Twitter @nrgJeff

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  1. Carvers is on point. CFS is in reasonable agreement, with the usual timing differences. At least they are not polar opposites. Pun intended there. Tough forecasting may go for a while. One almost has to wait for ensembles and operational runs to see correct timing of pattern shifts. Speaking of those, they seem to be getting colder again right after Thanksgiving. We'll see. Silver lining of tough forecasting: At least it's getting cold occasionally. Have a good weekend!
  2. I think we may really book two BN weeks ending at/right after Thanksgiving. Still a few mild days, but 7-day average stats look BN both weeks. Encouraging.. Next question is, how do we transition into a mild start for December? Sometimes WAA gins up a storm. However it's November, not February, so I'll go with quiet warm up. Euro weeklies verbatim (LOL week 6) show a better chance of severe weather than snow for Christmas.
  3. Isotherm has a good forecast. I am little colder but I'm still AN. For snow lovers a January 2006 would be a disaster! Long as the MJO jumps around we will have our cold periods even within a mild winter. Going optimistic, not 3 torches in a row.
  4. Looks like two stout cold fronts the rest of the month, this week and Thanksgiving week. Looks mild in between though. I would still call the fronts both transient by themselves, with a warm interlude. However we just might get two weekly periods to average BN. Separately for the entire forum, I will not comment on Thanksgiving precipitation models until that week. I'm of course in default skeptic mode.
  5. College football was quite interesting this week! In the NFL I'm happy the Chiefs will not blow a lead this week. Bye week, lol! Snowed at Disney on Ice, Frozen this weekend in CHA. Probably be the only snow we see in town all winter..
  6. Cold -QBO vs Nina SER engage in WWF cage match! Seriously, this weekend is a great preview of what I believe will be somewhat common. Northeast US sets record lows while the Valley gets merely brushed. Later in winter it will help NWFS though. Unfortunately the cold pattern is likely the secondary one, with a warm dominant background possible. Still this winter should be an improvement over the last two.
  7. Euro weeklies are on board with a cold Thanksgiving week. Surface cold is shown easing up the end of November. Upper charts still would allow occasional cold intrusions eastern Valley. Western third of our sub-forum, esp MEM, is closer to a milder regime in the Mid South. Overall it is a seasonably cool package. December jury is still out though.
  8. Thanksgiving blocking VencorWeather mentions is showing up on most models and ensembles. No guarantee it lasts for weeks, but it seems legit for Thanksgiving and the end of the month. Separately, this winter should be better than last. Could be warm air trouble for synoptic systems. However NWFS events should be better in the wake of cold fronts.
  9. Re that 8-14 day chart, maybe they meant European ensembles. Still I can't see going nearly 50% chance AN. Maybe 33%. Personally I'm looking for a cold shift around Thanksgiving. Clarification: Thanksgiving cold might only last until the end of the month. I am not buying sustained yet, despite the Euro weeklies 5-6.
  10. Yes we are looking at the same CFS. Great thing about NOAA is everything is free. Only trouble is we get what we pay for, lol! Anyway, today the CFS is easing up on the blowtorch every so slightly. I'm almost certain we are seeing the same Euro weeklies even if using different subscriptions. I write week-by-week vs 45 days since daily errors (sometimes / pray hard) cancel out at the weekly level. Differences between the CFS and Euro are likely MJO forecast related. Looking at the clusters, I see some doors opening for cold in our region by Thanksgiving. Weeks 3-6 cold clusters have the majority so the overall is slightly BN here. I really doubt 4 straight weeks are BN, but odds favor some stout cold fronts. One has to favor the Euro weeklies over the CFS.
  11. Euro weeklies and CFS diverge about as sharply as possible, so December is still a coin flip and I will stay in this thread. Some Euro clusters echo mild CFS but of course other Euro clusters are even colder than the overall. I will believe sustained blocking when I see it. Until then, I like quick cold fronts. The blocking on the coldest solutions shows up all over the Arctic, while other solutions have the North American block fail. November to December has a decent correlation, regardless of October, so watching the month progress will roll back some layers. For November I lean slight AN with brief but sharp cold fronts.
  12. I will take the other side. Does he trade HDDs?
  13. Better late than never. Salvaged some fall foliage near Craven's House on Lookout Mountain.
  14. Latest Euro weeklies have variability, esp if breaking down the clusters. Also I found more clarity in EIA weeks (Sat-Fri) vs Mon-Sun. Weeks 1-2 clusters are consistent as usual. Warm next week, colder week 2. Weeks 3-4 show slightly warmer than normal but clusters have wide swings. Expect variability. Weeks 5-6 clusters are all over the place. Overall shows a little more blocking. Odds favor at least variable, perhaps a real cold shot. Next several weeks still look mild dominated, but with openings for cold.
  15. A ski season would be nice starting in December. Agree Novie looks warm. Although the EPO is going negative, the NAO is completely AWOL if one wants cold. Get the shopping and holiday prep done while it is mild. Then hopefully we are skiing a lot more this year!