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About nrgjeff

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    Plains, I mean Dixie

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    Twitter @nrgjeff
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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Chattanooga, TN
  • Interests
    Storm chasing, Energy weather, Winter storms, hiking and skiing, U. Kansas and Wichita State basketball, Chattanooga FC, Chatt Lookouts, UTC Mocs, FC Wichita, Sporting KC, Royals and Chiefs. Twitter @nrgJeff

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  1. nrgjeff

    Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018

    Impressive video @*Flash* from June 26. Takes me back to the Plains with a disco strobe anvil topped thunderhead. Hopefully we can do it in the Valley (and Midsouth) later this week and over the weekend. Modest flow is still forecast over that period, I'll say Friday through Monday. Turning with height is meager but the speed is pretty good for this time of year. SPC does not sound too impressed, but at least we get the marginal text mention. Should be enough for organized storms, vs just pop-up poop-out. All I'm asking for is a little straight wind, good shelfies, and lightning shows. You know, this summer still feels a little empty without the 2017 eclipse anticipation.
  2. nrgjeff

    Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018

    June 28 evening was my lightning show of record for 2018. In fact it's the best I have seen here in several years. We had frequent lighting for nearly an hour with nearly constant rumbling of thunder. On two occasions continuous lighting went for a few minutes. Separately, a few booms of thunder shock the house. Being at night of course helped with the light show. We had stronger storms a few days before that. June 28 was more about the lighting and thunder. Hopefully modest flow aloft in a few days will bring more fun. Real storms please!
  3. nrgjeff

    Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018

    Friday and Saturday should offer at least something to watch. I would put it in the category of the June 21-28 weather with modest upper level flow and some severe wx reports. ECMWF continues to show greater than seasonable upper level flow. It veers with height, but the low levels are far from backed to start. Looks like a straight line wind pattern. A hard right mover on a boundary (SSE motion) could spit out hail too. 06Z GFS trends toward the ECMWF with a more open wave, as opposed to broad but closed off, which creates a little more veering with height on the GFS. Wind direction at low levels does not favor rotation. However veering with height upstairs still supports the chance of severe wx mainly in the form of straight winds. We'll see if it holds.
  4. I agree we'll get another bout of heat and humidity (AN temps) the first of August. Even the late July break does not look like a big break. However it's still there and with more precip. After the early August round of heat, we should be ready to count down to easier temps and football.
  5. GFS MOS has been more sane than the 2m temps. Now in the heart of summer I trust MOS more. I prefer 2m in changing weather (a real front unlike today) or a significant MCS in the summer. If MOS starts getting beat by 2m, then of course check the latter. Well this is the mid-range. Still looks like temperatures will ease up a bit around July 20, esp July 23. Might be able to pull off a bearable stretch from then until early August. At that point I can deal with one last push of heat. In August we know fall and football are approaching. Just hope late July verifies.
  6. Thankfully I do not think so. More good news next week looks a touch less insane too. Do you think we'll see any flirting with thermometer records for portions of the eastern Valley this weekend?
  7. nrgjeff

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    Euro monthlies rundown follows, verbatim with little (serious) commentary. Charts came out last week. July looks hot. What's new? August and September have a reasonable look, seasonably warm but not a bad whipping compared to July. Aug-Sept is believable if El Nino can start to influence. October, November, and December show trough west ridge east. Tee up severe weather! Actually, probably not. Who believes shoulder month forecasts? Mild December makes sense if El Nino but October and November are notoriously fickle and variable. January is shown colder than normal. Typical El Nino winters feature a turn colder at some point. Recent Nino cases have been second half of January. Like others above, six months out I will punt forecasting precip.
  8. We might have to suffer a few days of a real ridge later this week over the weekend. As noted above, we have been on the periphery up to this point. Rain had been able to work underneath the soft underbelly of the ridge up North. In the wake of Chris (even offshore) heights should build from the Midsouth to the Southeast. Funny how the same thing is forecast over in China after Maria slams into Fujian Province. It is still pretty far south, like our Gulf Coast. Probably won't qualify as a recurve for downstream North America weather. Hot Tennessee Valley analysis from Jax above looks valid to me. Hopefully it'll ease up around the 20th.
  9. nrgjeff

    Spring/Summer 2018 Observations

    Somehow my lawn got blanked the last 4 days, despite lots of thunderstorms Fri/Sat. Question is whether to water this week or hope it holds on until the next front. On the bright side a fairly pure tropical airmass has taken over and the sky is beautiful deep blue. Hopefully it lasts.
  10. nrgjeff

    Spring/Summer 2018 Observations

    Wednesday evening Chattanooga had a lightning show like something from the Plains or even Southwest. Lightning was vivid and frequent. A couple occasions continuous lightning was observed for a few minutes. Thunder was fairly loud but the light show took the trophy. Looks like the modest flow aloft will depart starting Friday. By the weekend a more typical summer pop-up storm regime should prevail, with no severe weather. It's been an interesting week of lightning and shelfies.
  11. I think we are still cycling the previous pattern. We had dry periods for 3-4 weeks about every 3 months. We have cooler periods also every 3 months. Perhaps late July will be the summer version, still hot but at normal or BN temps. Looks like the atmosphere is still slightly in a Nina state, going by AAM and West Pac convection, but the SSTs are trending Nino. ENSO should respond more fully going into fall.
  12. nrgjeff

    ENSO 2018

    Alex, I'll take the somewhat uncommon (but not rare) -PDO and El Nino for $400. What is, blowtorch? Well, maybe get some severe weather. Just kidding! We do not know how the PDO will work out. Confidence is building on the El Nino since we are in summer well past the spring model choke barrier.
  13. nrgjeff

    Spring/Summer 2018 Observations

    NWS is beating MOS, which is the goal. Yes @jaxjagman the models have been awful. Timing thunderstorms has been a whip too. CAMs have actually degraded toward midday. I believe they overweight existing clouds/precip. Then CAMs blow up midday MCSs that do not happen until late afternoon and evening. Silver lining is job security for human forecasters!
  14. I usually watch GLAAM from an energy subscription, Storm Vista Models. NCEP CPC does not really include it. Few Twitter users occasionally post but not recently. Mid Atlantic and Northeast Slight Risks put them in a short-term state of mind, lol!
  15. After the Fourth of July heat, hope is seen on both sets of weekly forecasts. When is the last time they agreed? I'm thinking about the first of May, lol! Charts show a ridge west trough east by July 20. Euro is a little faster at 500 mb, but its surface does not really respond until July 20 also. Normal or even slight BN temps is still fairly hot that time of year. However the 500 mb pattern should allow the Normal to AN precip. Non-model or model assisted assisted methods line up. MJO and GLAAM should progress through phases friendly to the weekly forecasts. El Nino is trying. Gotta get through that hot phase Fourth of July week still, Then it looks more seasonable.