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About nrgjeff

  • Rank
    Shock the American!

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    Twitter @nrgjeff
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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Chattanooga, TN
  • Interests
    Storm chasing, Energy weather, Winter storms, hiking and skiing, U. Kansas and Wichita State basketball, Chattanooga FC, Chatt Lookouts, UTC Mocs, FC Wichita, Sporting KC, Royals and Chiefs. Twitter @nrgJeff

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  1. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    Late January cold appears to have faded back to run of the mill cold fronts behind mainly rain system(s). OK by me to take a breather. February should offer 2 cold weeks. Tough to say if 2 in a row, or a cold-warm-cold deal. Weeklies both line up well with new Alaska ridging and a Great Plains blue norther. SER shown has not held up any other time this winter. February La Nina climo supports the SER slightly more, but I'm going with the trend. Surface temps should be colder than shown, dissecting the 500 mb progs. Technical term for low level cold air undercutting SER is a General Sherman job. Not really. What about snow? February climo is the least bad for snow. Peer reviewed research goes anywhere from January to March; however, we're going with February. One inland low east of the Apps but without a quick coastal transfer would fill most of the gaps. Also those January Deep South sliders are for us in Feb. I am probably too optimistic. Playing on house chips after getting clippered pretty well in Illinois. However we do have cold weather forecast in the best climo month. MJO will be a big player, but I believe the models are confused. Right now deep convection is noted over all of the Indian Ocean, stretching all the way to the eastern tip of Indonesia. Won't stop raining in the Philippines. Convection spans several regions on the MJO chart, so the number is not as useful this situation. I expect a quicker weaker move through the warm phases. Cold phases should return by Feb.
  2. January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Obs

    GOES-16 is amazing! Anybody look at GOES-16 daytime micro RGB? Snow shows red to really stand out. However I think the hi-res VIS is still most beautiful. Carolina Crusher!
  3. Winter Banter 2017/18

    If the big snow is to the south, maybe the super-outbreak will also be south of us this time. Remember this is banter!
  4. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    Evidence is increasing for cold again at the end of Jan. Not mutually exclusive, I still expect cold mid-Feb. No time for details now though..
  5. January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event

    Even Asheville, black hole 2, has 3 inches of snow. Chatty is the worst for snow. Yup, never go more than a dusting for a Miller B. Go zero for any clipper. Miller A and pray..
  6. January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event

    I am going to go waaayyy out on a limb about Birmingham. (sarcasm) Precipitation following the ridges. Anybody ever see that before? Folks this is Southern weather 101. Plus you ain't seen snow screwed until you lived in Chattanooga!
  7. January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Obs

    My obs match those of DWagner. Dusting fell Tuesday. That overnight ribbon did nothing. It was either virga or not placed right by surrounding radar. Correct, Hytop never works. As for those crap snowflakes, apparently a quality dendrite growth zone aloft never established. They are too big to be pixie dust, so will call them crap flakes. I had better luck with roads. East Brainerd Rd. to the Interstates are just dry in Chattanooga. No promises with side roads. Breeze helped roads, but oh that wind chill is brutal out there.
  8. Winter Banter 2017/18

    Chattanooga had the obligatory dusting nothing more. I'm not sure whether to live vicariously through North Carolina - or puke! Welp. At least Kansas beat West Virginia in Morgantown; and, it was our biggest road come-back in 20 years! I need to re-watch the highlights. Still a good week for me.
  9. ENSO 2018

    Need La Nina to hold on into May for Plains peak. Last year that crap out was a total disaster for chasing. Of course it was not a total disaster for civilians.
  10. January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Obs

    Yup EB had dimes and a couple nickels. Surely we live within a few blocks of each other, lol! Need more than pixie dust.
  11. January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event

    Not you my friend. This dude. Snowbird is not welcome in our sub-forum region. Now for a dose of reality. GOES-16 shows very subtle lift into the DGZ on the AL/MS border. Columbus radar appears to be weakening as snow moves farther away and under the beam. Then Huntsville is totally down. Nobody is saying big snow; however, light snow will continue for a few hours.
  12. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    It'll get cold again in Feb.
  13. January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event

    The HRRR has not ingested reality for a couple days now, lol! Tellico Plains will go back to snow when the column cools. Finally I will not quote the dry slot panic someone else posted, but this is not at all a dry slot. Nashville has dry air at 700 mb as expected behind a cold front. GOES-16, radar, and soundings all show a quality DGZ on the back of the snow ribbon. Might not last long, but did I say this is not a dry slot?
  14. January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Obs

    Pixie dust fest in Chattanooga East Brainerd. Believe a poor DGZ is overhead attm. Temperatures aloft could improve toward 22Z with the last bit of snow, mandatory for decent powder. Otherwise, Chattanooga sigh... 22Z is starting 5:00 pm Eastern Time.
  15. January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Obs

    Light snow Chattanooga north.