nrgjeff
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About nrgjeff
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Duds are not too discouraging this early in the season. Same week in March and I'm going off, lol! That said, I will be ready for day-of decisions if I'm not hammered at work. Next weekend would be convenient.
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Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019
nrgjeff replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
ESPN Saturday Showcase is going to be big time! Kansas takes the floor at 4. All kinds of ACC dogfights are scheduled. Tennessee invades Rupp for Prime Time! I will not be looking at much weather until Sunday or Monday. Saturday is dedicated to college basketball. -
In the short-term, looks like snow for Kentucky! Surface winds are advecting in cold dry air. Shallow front just arrived, so ice first. Then snow esp north away from Tenn. Light snow should get across to the KY/VA and WV/VA borders early Saturday, higher terrain. Agree with @Carvers Gap about the La Nina signature out West, probably related to stubborn Indonesia convection, but it is complex chaos too. Should be a true cold front end of the month, but I will move to the elephant in the room. Next week looks like the real deal with rain. Rivers are already up. Ohio River concerns weigh downstream. In both regions we all hope the stationary front wiggles elsewhere. It is a balancing act, but many talented people are working it at both the Corps and TVA. 12Z ECMWF and ICON remain bullish QPF. Both backed off slightly, but still a lot of rain. Much will depend on frontal position and forcing, along with track of each wave. If QPF forecasts don't back off by Sunday or Monday, an event thread is probably warranted. Huntsville NWS went ahead and released the WPC QPF chart through Day 7. Issued Friday morning.
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Desert Southwest regional radar mosaic and local radars are very impressive today Thursday. GOES-17 shows a massive plume of moisture back to Hawaii (actually farther south to the ITCZ). Big time atmospheric river is teeing up on the STJ. Rain and flooding will be the weather story next week. Agree parts of West Kentucky (maybe northwest Tenn) should see some light ice Saturday morning. Could be light snow into higher elevations of East Kentucky over toward the VA/WV border Saturday.
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The PNA is stubborn. EPS joined the warmer CFS, kind of relegating the colder ECMWF weeklies. Still, the door is open for cold the end of the month. Tropical Pacific convection signal is disconnected. One forecast broke down the MJO forecast (normally 15 degrees north/south of equator) to 0-15 N and 0-15 S. Most influence was Southern Hemisphere. Overall the monster forecast signal shown a few days ago has faded anyway. Stubborn SER means next week system kind of fell apart. I know we keep pushing it back; however, end of the month looks slightly colder than normal. West trough is forecast to lumber east, at least Central. Would allow cold air into our region. March blocking may start to fade mid-month. Assuming 6-8 weeks of influence from SSW, it expires mid-March. Bring on severe weather season!
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Critical thickness hints ice storm East Tenn. I hope not! Thankfully it's just the GFS a week out.
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GOES 17 is a huge help watching systems approach the West Coast, plus tropical convection. Farther west here is a reliable link to the Himawari satellite from the Japan Met Agency. Shows anything from India to Hawaii. http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/ I am not going to wish for winter precip. EPS has a disturbing signal. AN 500 mb heights, normal 850 mb temps, cold surface temps undercut at times. Ice is not welcome here.
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From the last page (rephrased) the -NAO is helpful for cold and snow, all else equal. Cannot have sabotage from the Pacific. PNA is killing us right now! During the 11-15 day the EPS last night had the (poorly placed) AK ridge weaken and leave behind a -EPO which is more helpful for winter. However the -NAO must hold. MJO and global wind should be bullish but it keeps being pushed back. For all my pessimism, I do think it'll get cold again later this month.
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I agree with @Carvers Gap that the NAO can still matter, even on the snow side. Also agree the model run is a good case study but nothing more. Yes @Jed33 downslope plays a role there. Hybrid yesterday, everyone was so warm. Pure downslope days that area will be warmer than points farther southwest (like CHA). Back to winter, maybe, NWP hints at cold around the 20th. Weeklies and EPS all show the colder few days. However we've been pushing back this cold period for 7-10 days already. Plus each low press wants to cut. Keep reminding myself, all it takes is one. Or the other team could win the coin toss, and low press cuts through Missouri, lol!
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I have a feeling 2019 will be an active year. Atmosphere often tips its hand early. See if we can get a few more early days. Plains may end up being the most active, so I'm not mongering for Dixie. Storm track has been quite active. Low press likes to track over the Ozarks this winter. Shift that north later in spring for Central Plains action. Mid-South portion of Dixie could be seasonably active early while lows are still going through the Ozarks.
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Chattanooga did it! 80 degree high earlier than last year. Might be earliest on record. 80 degree highs in the winter thread is LOL!
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Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019
nrgjeff replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Kansas is decimated. Yes @tnweathernut Vick is out for personal matters according to Coach. Azubuike is injured for the season (the big man). Also De Sousa was disqualified by the NCAA. He's not played this year but showed promise last season. NCAA handed down a vindictive overly harsh punishment for something small between a relative and Adidas. Meanwhile Zion plays away at Duke after a much bigger alleged sum from Nike. NCAA = Nazi Communists Against Athletes. Needless to say KU season is hosed. Kind of like winter... -
Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019
nrgjeff replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Now we know to forecast snow in Chicago 4/8. MLB is trying to avoid that, starting outdoor North teams on the road. We'll see how it works out this year. Maybe catch them in Atlanta? Western Kansas is beautiful too, esp when a cyclical supercell is slowly lumbering along a boundary and dropping gorgeous tornadoes. -
Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019
nrgjeff replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
That's awesome @Holston_River_Rambler great stuff! I'll go with the Tahiti storm, lol. MJO is having trouble connecting with the mid-latitudes today. Could still come through in several days, but I'm not holding my breath. When's Opening Day for your favorite baseball team? KC Royals open at home March 28. Few days prior they play their AAA affiliate the Omaha Storm Chasers! -
Looks like two boundaries, both in their CWA. Synoptic is north of MEM. Another sits south of MEM. Could be a fun afternoon. Still I agree with their reasons limiting the event. Probably just isolated gusty winds. Heavy rain is the other consideration.
