nrgjeff

Monday the SPC seems to favor a shot at re-development due to intense wind profiles. Very latest NAM wants to back off early initiation due to warmer 700 mb prog. That giveth and taketh. If a substantial short-wave ejects toward 00Z new storms could breach the cap. Dewpoints must stay at/above 68 I think or Monday is another dog.

The DDC Chapman year 2016 was the last trough that worked out. We went days early, anticipating some days before the days. That year MCSs were not shown. Instead the question was initiation under a warm EML. I would much rather have those questions. Pattern recognition works better when mesoscale does not totally wipe out the synoptic setup. A few days next week remind me of 2016 in between waves with neutral heights. However in 2016 they were not sandwiched between crashing fronts. 2016 showed a good trough early week DDC and then the big one Thursday. Got Woodward the day before DDC. Chapman was on a slightly rising heights day, where the outflow boundary said, we gonna play anyway. Of course the big one Thursday busted. Still the week was a huge success. Some folks got the Spearman tornado the day before Woodward, and a Leoti tornado the day before that. Best to chase multiple days to increase odds. Too much can go wrong on a single day. 2016 produced Sat-Wed. 5 days in a row! So the main event busted like a 2-round knockout, lol! Next week one should probably be out there even for the crap days. I just can't motivate myself with two MCS days.

ECMWF had that 2m stuff overnight; however, it has a hot bias. Figure Robert knows that though. Bigger crap news is high dewpoints all over next week. Hopefully that Day 7-8 front is stronger and knocks down dews. I would love to keep the weather from Mon/Tue this week. Endless fall with daylight evenings!

I am about to postpone a chase trip originally planned to start shortly. Previous post explains the issues. Friday the ECMWF does not even have enough moisture. GFS is amped, shocker there. We'll see what the 12Z NAM does when the hi-res goes out to 60 hr. My guess, mainly hailers. Quincy is right; there will be tornadoes. However I'm really not interested in the crowds, the MCSs, JIT moisture (Mon) and rising heights midweek. As for the Hudson Bay low, it becomes a blessing in disguise late May. As Quincy notes it helps to keep the West trough in place. Some NWP also builds an AK ridge in the 11-15 day. Such a blocky pattern could maintain a West trough and SER. How about chase later, farther north, away from crowds, and more photogenic cells?

I figure 3-4 chase days during the 4-9 day period. 1-2 days could be broad easy forecasts. 1-2 days may be chase target picker days. Too early to nail down details but here is some day-by-day. Friday: Looks discrete but could be a bunch of high plains hailers. If 700 mb cools enough and surface winds back enough (both correlated with short-wave) more interesting. Saturday: Could be sloppy. However overnight mid-range models now favor redevelopment in addition to that slop. Sunday: Mid Mississippi Valley, nah. Take a rest day. Monday: Risk of lots of WAA stuff. On the other hand the ceiling could be high. Upper levels WSW instead of SSW. May be a chase day. Tue/Wed: I doubt both go. However more shortwaves are forecast to eject out. One of those days could be another chase day. Then the following weekend and perhaps well into the next work week still look active. If SW flow lifts out, I figure the North would offer photogenic less crowded season.

Next solar min will be deeper and longer than forecast. Dalton seems like a reasonable comparison. I'm not ready to buy Maunder min. If that happens, I'm not far enough south. Love snow but hate cold!

Chasers rejoice; the GL trough is even weaker and less important now! Friday it now appears ample moisture will be up on the dry line. Low level winds are backed a bit. Uppers are SSW to SW, and probably enough turning with height. Saturday remains TBD based on mesoscale factors. Upper winds get a little meridional in the Plains. However if an outflow gets down to Texas, winds show more turning upstairs on the ECMWF. I'm not sure whether to hope for that though. Texas tends to be messy. Sunday could be a break. Might need a rest and or reposition day. Monday through Wednesday I figure two more chase days. I doubt all 3, but who knows. Looks like another trough comes out Monday; placement is TBD between Iowa and Kansas. Tuesday or Wednesday looks like another. Models still sorting out which, and there is a slight chance all 3 days go.

Indeed SPC started with Friday (Sunday Day 4-8). Looks like they left Saturday for post-MCS meso-scale details. Friday could be more active up on the WF. I'm afraid dews are not high enough on the DL; but, anything can happen on the High Plains. More importantly, it appears we have reeled in the weeklies and ensembles into the Day 5-7 forecast. That's an accomplishment compared to the last few years. Remember the epic flip last year? A perfect pattern out weeks 3-4 turned into trash by week 2. Not this year! Complex signals add confidence to model forecasts. Pacific jet extension will set the table. Then a +AAO and -NAO combo this time of year actually helps keep a west trough and systems going through the Plains. NAO is not the same animal as back in April. +AAO helps avoid that awful GL trough no longer progged. Boundary layer moisture has improved the last few runs, not a surprise really. This weekend should be just the start of an active 7-10 day period, perhaps as long as two weeks. It's on!

Winter will probably depend on the solar cycle. Increasingly I believe the climate change signal is too hard to overcome, esp in the South. Deep solar minimum is our only hope. Sounds bleak I know. So was the end of the Last Jedi (just watched again). Episode 9 comes out in December. Maybe it, and winter, will have a happy ending.

Slight goes up the Mississippi Alabama line almost to Tenn. 2% strong! Just kidding. The Plains beckons in a week. Locally we do have outflow lifting through MS/AL. Thunderstorms are in progress from west Mississippi. Looks sloppy without any new development. However they are on or close to that boundary.

ECMWF comes out after the Day 2 from SPC. Evidence now supports a slight risk Saturday from North Alabama into North Georgia. NAM and Euro both have a lot of CAPE along and south of a lifting boundary. I thought the 12Z NAM was nuts showing a right mover there; other CAMs do not. Now.. Euro introduces a mesolow on the said boundary. Low level winds are veered off, and the upper levels are not robust. However it's May which is CAPE season. While the Day 2 update is still Marginal, I figure on waking up to Slight. No I'm not staying up, lol! Something to watch Saturday though.

The period from May 17/18-ish for 7-10 days looks very active in the Plains. This 500 mb chart forecast is accompanied by strengthening upper level jet stream from the WSW and LLJ response most days from the straight south. Tee. It. Up!

Tuesday looks like the best day in the Plains. Monday suffers from slightly rising heights and warm 700 mb. Wednesday LLJ forecasts point to the Midwest and Ozarks. Midwest is of course doable but LOL Ozarks. Tuesday the LLJ points into the Plains triple point, and likely other intersecting boundaries after Monday. Also Tuesday winds upstairs are at adequate speeds and the correct direction. Appears moisture should be there, despite Texas activity. Helps the ground is already moist. Looking ahead, finally the week 3 hype has progressed into week 2. May 15/16 to 20/22 could be quite active. That's going right into peak climo.

Thursday morning: Slight kink in surface wind trajectories is noted on the TN/KY border. Boundary occasionally shows on visible satellite. However both sides are pretty veered off. MCV is approaching so I expect the Slight verifies for mainly wind. Deep layer shear is meh. However low level shear is OK, esp on the boundary and straight east of the MCV. Probably not a big deal, but it's something to talk about in our Region. Otherwise I think the seasonal progression toward the Plains is on-track. They had quite a week!

A convergence zone was already in southeast Tenn. Explains the lovely light show I enjoyed from my covered porch right after dark.