nrgjeff
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About nrgjeff
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KC Chiefs!
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For all my whining in the weather threads, both Tennessee and Kansas won this weekend. Football season always presents new possibilities!
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
nrgjeff replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Of course it'll be sudden. Having a real fall is overrated. (Note my disgust with the situation though.) Interesting mid-summer models missed a couple nice fronts. However mid-summer is when the climate signal is weakest. We're hot anyway. I guess from Sept-May just assume fronts fail or under perform. 12Z Euro just went warmer 6-10 day. Do we cry or just laugh? -
The only hope for winter is a ton of aerosols. Oceans can't absorb any more heat; therefore, charts are red all over. SSTs, surface temps, Arctic source regions are all red. Even SSW is defanged with a mild source region. Maybe after several years of low solar and/or major aerosol injection. Always possible I'm just being negative though. At least Tennessee and Kansas both won their football games, and the Chiefs whipped the Raiders out there! Hanged out with climo scientists a NWAS19, but I think here is where I hand it off to the Climate Change Forum.
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
nrgjeff replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah I think we are locked in AN temps for several more weeks. Still it won't be as bad going into Oct. Euro weeklies 4-6 probably just trending climo. CFS reloads more AN temps. Not that I trust the CFS but at least it's doing something other than punt to climo. Global wind is still negative and looking to dip again. Only hope might be that Kelvin wave; but, I think that's just the temporary break before the reload. I'm also resigned to another crappy fall foliage year. Hell, I can do better in Kansas City.- 26 replies
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Trough west. Severe Midwest. Death SER here. Chatty is working on another record high too. Ferris Bueller Principal: Nine Days! Agree! New members get your feet wet here and in Banter. Our regional sub-forum is especially solid in two ways. Yes, we take the science seriously, but not ourselves, this post haha. At the same time we treat new members with the same respect and inclusion given to long-time members. No such thing as a bad forecast if it includes reasoning (even just a little).
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Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.
nrgjeff replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The markets weather can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent sane. Global wind remains remarkably stubborn negative (hot). Kelvin wave looks to progress out of that cool signal quickly to warm; so, I guess around 90 weekend is the only so-called break. More mid-90s next week. NWP is reloading again in the 11-15. I was out of pocket for a while at the National Weather Association annual meeting in Huntsville. It was amazing except for one silly panel disco. LOTS of great severe wx info. -
Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.
nrgjeff replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Unfortunately the ECMWF looks correct. EPS and Weeklies both the Euro is a lot warmer than the GEFS and CFS. Regrettably, in contrast to the last two false alarms. the Euro torch may be right. Previous two Euro torches, that whiffed, were also in the wake of tropical cyclones. Euro left the upper ridge behind; surface ridges/fronts verified for the cooler win. This time is similar but different for two reasons. 1. Mid-latitude support is forecast. Pac NW trough is progged next week, which supports SER or Smoky Mtn Ridge (even worse). 2. GLAAM is tanked hard negative. Frankly this sux. The only way my frown turns smile is a Midwest severe wx outbreak with that trough. Tennessee lost and the Euro won. Wake me up about mid-October. Late Night and fall foliage. -
Auburn did a good job stealing that game. Any pain to Oregon is good. I'm still salty after a KU NCAA basketball tournament loss to them. Speaking of hoops, when's college basketball season start? September is dead to me. Another year of MA temps is likely.
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Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.
nrgjeff replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Hopefully those 3-4 dry weeks were a blip. I had to water a tired looking lawn, but it never got really brown - perhaps thanks to the deeper moisture. Some of the later model guidance has the return of the southern stream. Just hope it's up here and not buried in the Deep South. I like the cool-down last couple days. Really looking forward to a low humidity version later this week. Next warm-up after Labor Day looks bearable with reasonable dewpoints. Getting to the time of year we don't instantly snap back to 72 Td yuck. Back half of September may verify AN if the global wind stays down. However it's weeks 3-4 in a choppy pattern. Farther down the road, I believe the trend of the QBO is somewhat useful, even though the snapshot of the sign is not. Falling from positive, reaching negative by winter, may be a cooler signal than starting negative and hoping. Yeah, I also like closers over breakers in horse and dog racing. -
Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
nrgjeff replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
I'd intended to post several days ago; however, most people already covered my thoughts. Of course it's good to reel in the advertised cool front! What next? I lean toward the slight rebound of the ridge and temps as Carvers discusses above. Global wind is still a little negative (less so during the cool front). However GW may dip more around Labor Day. A sharp or shorter wavelength PNA would also allow the Bermuda ridge to ooze back into the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Still, I really want to be optimistic and forecast football weather for football season. Occasional slightly above normal is still football weather I would say, if we can just avoid a particularly stubborn Smoky Mtn SER.- 26 replies
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Tuesday: Another round of storms blew up in East Tenn. Some wind damage was reported around Pigeon Forge and Sevier County. Wednesday: Today reminds me of August 21, 2017. It's hot and mostly sunny here. MCS is decaying over the Central Plains. No eclipse though, lol! One year ago 8/21/18 was cloudy and rainy here. I find it interesting to compare weather as I reflect on the eclipse. This year would have worked out again.
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- grieving winter
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Chattanooga hit 100 degrees (dews 72+) before the thunderstorms Tuesday. Normally dews dip into the 60s at 100 deg, but not this time. Glad that's over. Saw Nashville storm anvils but those cells did not make it into Chatty. Lightning and thunder started slowly since it was new development for Chatty. By evening the light and thunder show improved.
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Oceans appear to have trouble absorbing and sinking heat. Looks like another mild winter. That's a lot for the solar min overcome. Even with massive blocking, warm Arctic / weak source region = meh.
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Need more members from the Mid South, just one in Memphis would be great. MEM and Dyersburg have a severe thunderstorm watch today, Wednesday 8/7/19. We'll never know if anyone is eagerly anticipating severe weather out there. Boundary is sitting out there, with some flow aloft. However so far storms only act like summer blobs, just moving a little bit instead of sitting.
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The SST forecast looks too cold globally. Been a long time since that much BN SST were observed. Verbatim that SST forecast correlates with the 500 mb forecast; but, I don't believe either one. I could see slight BN SST tropical Pac. However I don't believe the IO or mid-latitude projections. North Pac has a shot at verifying though. With Nina that's variable, and many headaches forecasting week by week in winter.
