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About nrgjeff

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    KC Chiefs!

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    Chattanooga, TN
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    Storm chasing, Energy weather, Winter storms, hiking and skiing, U. Kansas and Wichita State basketball, Chattanooga FC, Chatt Lookouts, UTC Mocs, FC Wichita, Sporting KC, Royals and Chiefs. Twitter @nrgJeff

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  1. Around 3:30 Eastern today Friday a tornado touched down around Myrtle Beach / North Myrtle Beach. Plenty of stills and videos on Twitter since it's a tourist area. #scwx will bring it right up.
  2. Yeah the +ABNA does have some blocking as Carvers notes. However the Alaska / northwest Canada source region is on fire. +ABNA can get it done down here locally with split flow, but that's not usually good for Region wide fun. Plus I'm just a very skeptical bear. If I can find just one reason to go warm, against 3 cold, I'll go warm. It is the South. Everything lines up, or cue up Toad the Wet Sprocket 1992, something's always wrong. Given a decent La Nina and QBO fail I'm seriously warm winter at work, no joking. However fall leaf season looks superb!
  3. European weekly charts line up with the cooler than normal outlook through the first 10 days of October. However, it ends there. Rest of the weeks are slightly warmer than normal. AN heights stretch from the West across Canada. Return of the +ABNA. Cancel winter? Well, this is the fall thread. Good news is the next few weeks will be good for leaves turning on time. Just avoid any wet wind storms. Early next week is not an issue. Same system in 15 days would be awful.
  4. Latest QBO coming in positive. The -QBO appears to have failed like a few years back. Looks like a long mild winter. Might as well look to Dixey Alley action. Wake me up in March for basketball and storms.
  5. I want to be a cynic and say it failed the last two times in the 11-15 day. However this time it has plenty of teleconnection support. Also East Asia looks more friendly upstream. That's just for the next 2-3 weeks. For winter, revert to cynical skeptic.
  6. I felt the same watching the Chiefs. When they looked awful I actually said out loud, I wish CBS would have saved me the pain and just shown Baltimore here! Things turned around of course. Why can't we have normal wins anymore? Always with a side order of heart attack, lol! Meanwhile the Saints choked last night. What is it with the NFC South? Can't stand the Raiders!
  7. Atlanta Falcons meltdown reminds me of cold November 2019; then, mild winter 2020. Why do the Chiefs have to give me a heart attack before winning? Titans kind of did too as JAX rallied, but the Titans held. Baltimore looks good. Tonight, Nola please beat the worthless Raiders! Do we have a Fall banter thread?
  8. I like John's cynicism. I strongly approve that message! Remember November 2019 setting the table for this epic snowy below normal temps winter? Sure was a nice early spring! OK I will try to share a shred of optimism. Only takes one day. Chattanooga Magic Saturday February 8.
  9. I saw the same. Weeklies do look blocky; however, we still might have to hurry up and wait on wavelengths and other features. If the Canada ridge goes mega-ridge, we are back in that +ABNA summer weather pattern. Siberia is also doing +ABNA things on the weeklies. Fortunately in October that's not as humid. Temps near normal, but no big trough either. Also, to give fair time, haha... There are some 16-30 day analogs with blocking and the +PNA and +WPO that go pretty cool. +WPO might be meh in winter; but at these early fall wavelengths, it's actually cold East. Selfishly I'm hoping for the normal/warm scenario. While I love cool mornings, warm afternoons get me more in the mood for fall foliage. In the relatively shorter-term there's Wilfred/22 for next week. ECMWF favors a track between that of Laura north and Sally south. Caution a 7 day forecast; but, inland storm chasing hopes always spring enternal!
  10. Euro may be upwelling water while it sits out there. At any rate I agree RI has paused for now. Both versions of the ARW show it keeping similar today. Then, more strengthening overnight. Though I'm not a fan of those models for tropics. There is one last period of lower shear overnight. I'm looking at satellite derived shear and tendency on CIMSS U Wisc.
  11. More positive news from MEM to BNA. Depending on wavelength and the like southeast Tenn could still be in the SER screw job.
  12. nrgjeff


    Big trade winds push in progress. Moderate La Nina is within striking range. Still feel like a good weak Nina. No borderline.
  13. I saw some 1965 hype, but didn't check snow. Severe wx that spring, lol! My guess is Memphis and Nashville will do OK this winter. Southeast Tenn will be blanked, or have an upper low surprise. All or nothing, lol!
  14. European monthly charts are classic La Nina, except a little better shot at cold Jan vs Dec. Verbatim that's great for a chance at snow. Jan > Dec. Feb-April annihilate Dixie Alley.
  15. It will eventually come through, but might be limping and weak. That kind of cold anomaly in the Plains will usually bleed southeast even this time of year. My biggest gripe is the awful evolution of the trough overall. Not only do we get robbed of a true cold front, no severe set-up in the Midwest. Could it be any worse? Actually I should not ask it's 2020, lol!