nrgjeff

My two cents. Yes the cold will undercut. Mid South and western third of our Region could surprise one day next week. Upper Plateau could / should do so as well. I don't about the I-81 corridor though. My other penny is that Chattanooga will stay well above freezing when it counts, so wake me up the next chance of severe.

I've not been on the forum as much as I'd like due to mainly kids activities. Performing arts is steady through the year. Nobody told me basketball is 3X as busy as track or cross country, lol! @Holston_River_Rambler good to know things are better with family. I guess health or accident, but I don't find the OP. Regardless, the power of prayer does not require details. On lighter topics, SEC vs Big 12 challenge is this weekend! I have to pick Auburn and Alabama on the road. Auburn will bounce back from Wed. WV is a tough venue, but their press is weak this year. Tennessee will win at home, but Texas is tough. TX Tech vs LSU is and should be relegated to ESPNU, lol. Now for my Big 12 picks. TCU and Iowa State are capable of road wins, but it depends on which Miss State and Mizzou show up. K-State, Oklahoma State, and Baylor should win at home. Kansas is better than Kentucky this year, but a road game is probably not where Kansas gets back on track. Coach Cal often says Kentucky plays better on the road. Well, they'll bring that intensity to home court between blue bloods. I'll go Kentucky W and be pleasantly surprised if Kansas snaps a 3-game losing streak at Rupp Arena. None of the above are recommendations, lol. At any rate, I show a 5-5 tie in the SEC Big 12 Challenge 2023.

I don't know Larry Cosgrove personally, but he has a nice presence on social media - a rare and refreshing occurrence in our era of cocky novices on social media. At any rate I have traded in my MLK Day cold flip for 2-3 more weeks of warm. Oh Alaska trough! Always a chance again in Feb. However years with extreme cold dumps sometimes can't fully reload. Including both the 500 mb and the surface projection.

Still praying for Damar Hamlin and the Bills. Chiefs fan here wanted to see Cincy win (KC home field concerns) but all of a sudden that does not matter. We just need son, brother, cousin, player, friend Damar to get well. Description borrowed from Jason Gay, WSJ sportswriter. After reading Jason's column from today I had to read his more typical fun one from yesterday. Talks about Rodgers and Brady back from the abyss. He also mentions TCU in college - yeah Big 12! I think one thing we Big 12 and SEC people can agree on, watching the Big Ten go down in flames, lol! Both Kansas schools lost Bowls to their SEC opponents, but at least my KU kept it close with Ark. How about them Vols! I told y'all Tennessee would win the Orange Bowl. Forecast verification!

The surface temps bias of course depends on the situation. Surging Arctic fronts, a forecaster should go colder. Warm fronts dislodging cold air the chilly NAM can sometimes win. In this case, it's already mild. WF should be stronger than forecast - stronger than winter model climo. Therefore I agree warmer than guidance at least from the Gulf WF south. I'm still not sold on the synoptic WF farther north since it's already raining. My bottom line: Mississippi late today and tonight. Central and South Alabama Tuesday. Bama requires the boundary intersection survive, and proper upper jetlet alignment. LLJ is forecast to remain in place Tuesday with warm enough surface temps/dews central/south Bama.

Tennessee is going to win our Bowl game. Oh Clemson it's Clemson. Yeah but the SEC is tougher than the ACC. Tennessee will win! (Not betting advice) Just have fun getting the W. Also Happy New Year!

Yeah @Matthew70 that was historic. It's almost like we get fewer tornadoes, but the energy is rolled up into several big ones. A look at overall history shows more general tornadoes in the Plains, but the 4s and 5s are concentrated in the South. Interesting @jaxjagman that 1989 was the last year so quiet in Tenn. Kansas was dead the late 80s too. Kansas is dead now too like Tenn. In both cases last year the states had notable tornadoes (Andover 2.0) but not much activity overall. Alas the Monday outbreak appears on track but mainly juuust to our west in Arkansas. Best chance of tornadoes is probably the western half of the 15% closer to initiation and the main pre-frontal trough. Could be mostly straight wind into the Mid-South but don't let down your guard yet. Anything going well out ahead on the WF could rotate. Mid-South looks after dark. Daytime action looks Ozarks. With Bowl Games galore on Monday the choice is clear. No chase!

Day 4-8 looks valid for Monday severe Mid-South. 12Z Wed. is slowing it down, into the flatter Delta region. Nice! Friday system tugs on Gulf Moisture; then, front does not clear the Coast over the weekend. Perfect for moisture return on Sunday. I always like a second system to ensure deeper moisture return. It’s nice in spring. It’s vital in winter. It’s this set-up. Then the table is set Monday. Winds turn with height forming a textbook curved hodo. Prefrontal trough is forecast intercepting WF or differential heating boundary. Those are fine details for so far out, but also easy pattern recognition. Believe SPC is right to outlook Day 6 in the cold season. Second wave (vs one-and-done) adds confidence to the thermo profile. In winter the wind profile is a given. That said, those who get anxious should not be this far out. Whole thing could fall apart. At the same time, chasers should check their equipment.

Belated merry Christmas! We were out of town after being super busy. Chattanooga did better with snow Monday evening than with the Arctic front, according to neighbors. We enjoyed the Monday snow showers welcome home. Today we have Kansas vs some pigs who can’t spell Kansas in the Liberty Bowl. Tennessee basketball is going to Ole Miss looking to prove something on the road after Arizona. I’ll take the Vols all day even Away. Looking ahead I like Tennessee football in the Orange Bowl. Clemson is still good, but Tennessee has just. So. Much. Offense. That’s a Vols win!

Above are the odds of SEEING anything in the South. Odds of it happening may be higher, but hills trees, short daylight hours, peaking after dark, etc.. Could be the same story Tuesday in the Mid South and just southwest of our Region.

Well it is a Monday.

USA loss to the Netherlands. Guess that's what thunder means.

Relaod. Rutgers (not shown) has AN snow on the southern periphery of Asia snowcover. We patiently (or not so patiently) await the North America response. Even if SER (or more likely south-central ridge) early, the cold should eventually win out.

I figure that SER, really more of a south-central US ridge, will try to hold on through early next week. Eventually the dam breaks in December*. Just too much blocking. *That's a generalization. Not a forecast. I have a long infamous history of jinxing weather patterns; so, just idle chatter.

I don't normally just drop Twitter threads, but this one is legit. Original thread is accessible from my retweet.