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About nrgjeff
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Twitter @nrgjeff
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http://www.linkedin.com/in/wjeffhenergy
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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KCHA
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Male
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Location:
Chattanooga, TN
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Storm chasing, Energy weather, Winter storms, hiking and skiing, U. Kansas and Wichita State basketball, Chattanooga FC, Chatt Lookouts, UTC Mocs, FC Wichita, Sporting KC, Royals and Chiefs. Twitter @nrgJeff
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Thursday sky definitely had a fall feel. I couldn't put my finger on it, but yeah it was the smoke. Friday we are back in business with a proper deep blue sky.
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True as a profession too, lol! I thought the Plains was strange forecasting. Then I moved to the Tennessee Valley. But yeah, the strato fake-outs surely have caused problems for numerical models this season. Probably connect very late and just ruin severe season.
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Epic model failure! How a cold forecast goes torch. I'm out until spring severe. Except Banter, always college basketball.
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Looks to me like the Strato warmings cannot connect with the Troposphere. Modelling for late February was a total bust. There is some hope in early March, but that gets toward mid March. No true connection with Canadian air either. We would have to hope for a bowling ball. They can and do happen that late. If this does not work I'm ready for severe early and often.
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Good to read reports of lightning and thunder. We can settle the mid-term debate in the pinned thread. Snow before the season ends!
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Indeed @Itryatgolf70 this unusual combo of -PDO and El Nino has been fickle. It's how we get a great storm track, but putting cold air in place is like pulling teeth - without Novocain.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
nrgjeff replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Cold core setups do weird things, but often photogenic things. Saturday on the hardwood Eve. Tennessee goes on the road in what's pretty much a must win game. Gotta get Ws on the road. Kentucky will win hosting Gonzaga. Kansas will win hosting Baylor. Alabama and Auburn are both on the road. I have no idea. Couple other Big 12 games that might be interesting are TCU at Iowa St. and Oklahoma bedlam. -
The Indo-Pacific is a mess. Convection that has come east from the Dateline is old news. Thunderstorms percolating over the Maritime Subcontinent (Indonesia / Malaysia) are a warm signal (current pattern) that was supposed to move east into colder phases again. Ope! Got new convection blowing up in the Indian Ocean. As it marches east it gets into the warm signal Maritime Subcontinent again. MJO models are not as messy as the reality I see on satellite. I suspect weather models will continue to struggle for North America. At least the southern storm track looks active.
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
nrgjeff replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
The next snow is always 3 weeks away, kind of like the next Kansas road win.- 1,263 replies
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
nrgjeff replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
South Carolina played dirty, but UT needs to play through that. Oh I have my own problems. Kansas may look invincible at home, but can't win against Q3 on the road. As for the NCAA I've long called it Nazi Commies Against Athletes. It's corrupt, power hungry, greedy, and doesn't want to share with the athletes. -
Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
nrgjeff replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I thought Kansas was inconsistent. Then Kentucky is like, hold my beer! Tonight Alabama and Auburn should be interesting. Hopefully high scoring. So Tennessee has the whole week off? Should be well rested for Saturday. -
Big ol' Siberian high invaded China. They have racked up above normal snow cover now. High press extends over the Pole to Alaksa. However a big ol' GOA Low is grinding away. Could get cold again in 2-3 weeks. Fow now, Hurry Up And Wait!
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Yeah that's a dubious stat. Anytime from the late 60s to early 80s we had the -PDO and -AMO which is ideal for low latitude winter storms. Basically dig the jet stream south coast to coast. I agree with @John1122 something is awry. I'm on board with the consensus climate science, but the community must do better with so-called data quality control. Stuff like this seeds doubt in the data, and then doubt in future predictions. Burden of proof is still on us scientists, even if we're very confident.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
nrgjeff replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Tennessee is ranked above Kansas this week! KU has played a couple dreadful road games. Tennessee really handled Alabama. Yeah it was at home, but the Vols would have smoked them on the road playing that well. Kentucky shows some high-power offense like we have not seen in a few years. Defense is TBD. Auburn could also make a statement in the SEC. Some of the best weeks of the year are upon us. Time to dig into the heart of college conference basketball season! -
January Medium-Long Range Discussion
nrgjeff replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Looks like a mild two or three weeks. Two weeks straight warm is tough to do this time of year. Perhaps a pair of 5-7 day warm periods with a cool sandwiched in between. High latitude ridging has sloshed back and fourth between Greenland and Scandanavia on a 4-6 week cycle since Thanksgiving. We'd be due for another cold period the back half of February. Cold wouldn't have the punch after 15 Feb. However it could get cold enough for winter precip. Honestly I could use the break now. Enjoy some Conference college basketball as we dig into the heart of the conference season.- 1,263 replies
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