nrgjeff

No reason to panic. I agree with Andy and Quincy it is quiet at the moment but it is also early. OK, you are down 12-4 in the opening minutes of a basketball game. Do you panic? Of course not! Sure the score is 3:1 but it is also only 8 points with over 30 minutes to play. We are in the first quarter NBA or first 5-8 minutes college. It's April 19. Relax and smoke some pot tomorrow. So the weeklies are bad. They are useful out to about 3 weeks in spring/fall. The only reason we have 4-6 weeks is for the depth of winter or peak of summer, gauging persistence or not. If not, do not use for reliable changes any time of year. Again in spring, do not worry about the 4-6 even if it is persistence. CFS dashboard seems quiet around May 7 considering what its own weekly chart shows. From the weekly chart I infer a southwest low. Probably not chase material, unidirectional bowling ball verbatim, but still a system. Can't forecast 3 weeks out, but one can cast doubt on the very quiet dashboard. Analogs include some very awful years, but analogs are just one tool which happen to average out things. One can have a low tornado count, with few systems and no big outbreaks, but still a couple sequences worth chasing. That might not assure local chasers, but a chase vacationer only needs one good sequence. If down 8 points with a minute to go, maybe panic like some people are now. However it is April 19 not May 19. While we lack evidence for an active season (trend, weeklies, analogs) we also lack evidence to give up (early, low 4-6 week skill). Just enjoy April 20 even without severe weather.

Saturday was such a dud. I figured it was not a chase day, obvious line of storms, but I was hoping for something a little more interesting to track. Only thunder was in the evening well after the initial band. April 22 now looks like rain not severe, perhaps cool rain again. Sigh.. First of May indeed a ridge followed by trough is forecast to track from the Plains through the Mississippi Valley. Approaching trough could gin up something in the Tennessee Valley; or, it could dig into a mean East trough and be cool. Too far out for details, but I'm continuing Jax's thoughts. Perhaps the system would be warmer in early May..

Enhanced Risk for North Alabama Saturday / tomorrow. Gee, it must be mid-April in Dixie! System will not have much directional shear at upper levels, but surface to mid-level (700 mb) turning is good. Plus we have decent CAPE near the peak of Dixie Alley season. That said, I expect a squall line with mainly straight wind. Models have shown glimmers of a wave along the front, or even meso-low, in Alabama. Such a feature would create a locally chasable target iff over decent terrain. Central Alabama won't work, but parts of North Bama would. North Alabama issue is possible midday rain stabilizing everything though. Atmosphere does not have that April feel. No outing is planned for me attm. Enjoying warm temps ahead of the front might be a better use of time. The April 22-ish storm is still on the models. Saturday (tomorrow) and 4/22 seem to take warmer tracks. Then the GFS 11-15 day goes back into March weather; and, Euro Ensembles plus both weeklies concur. Hopefully that dreadful late April forecast is wrong, esp in the wake of warmer systems. UPDATE (for Saturday): 1730Z SPC Day 2 uses stronger words/hatches. While CAMs have mean looking storms, LLJ 850/925 mb wind speed forecast is not particularly robust for this time of year. Direction is there 700 mb under, but not speed. Plus it's unidirectional farther up (though strong). A meso-feature and outflow would make up for all above deficiencies. Plus if no midday rain-out the CAPE instability will be there. Still no chase planned for me - a lot has to happen - but I will keep an eye on the mesoscale situation. UPDATE 2 for Saturday: Hello 12Z Euro (Fri) and your robust low level jet LLJ. OK, give me an outflow boundary Saturday and we might talk. OFB would be from morning/midday rain Middle Tenn that does not spread into Alabama. Still a big, we'll see, for me.

Weeklies don't commit to much weeks 4-6, but maybe the SSW hangover will end sometime in May. @Holston_River_Rambler and @Carvers Gap I think you got a handle on it. Sorry I was out of town a few days for a mix of learning and leisure. If a big system develops, like with any time of year, weeklies would probably not show a strong signal until it's within 3 weeks. I look for a few passing troughs everywhere in May - more progressive pattern. Might be mean ridge west mean trough east, but nothing like the lock-in attm. Progressive pattern would be more variable. In another thread @John1122 noted the Winter that could have been, except for the January drought. I concur. And we dreadfully wasted a late timed SSW!

Looking ahead the MJO is forecast to die off leaving the North American atmo hanging in a cold phase. However we are on week 6-7 of a cold pattern. Going much past 8 weeks would be a shocker even after a SSW hangover. During the SSW hangover most systems have been too cold (except March 19 and April 3). Day 6-10 severe ends up 1-5 day cold rain. Severe enthusiasts want that to stop. Weeklies are not as cold starting week 3, but still show meandering troughs. Twice this season Dixie had severe with mean troughs on both coasts, but we can't have a full latitude trough in the East. In the severe episodes the West system regrouped sliding into Dixie.

Winter 2010-2011 was cold December and January, with multiple snow events. I thought, wow, I think I'm back in an area that gets snow. LOL X 100! OK Chatty did well in 2014 and 2015 too. Anyway the similarity came to an abrupt end in March, when we got cold this year 2018. March-April 2011 were warmer than normal. Hopefully the divergence also means no 2011 severe. That was awful even if one likes severe wx.

Well I was just poo-pooing the MDT on a PM. Prefer ENH for wind but we have potential. Indeed appears a slight wind shift in Middle Tenn. Could we get a pre-frontal trough going? Upstairs it does appear the LLJ will increase around 00Z. It is not a strong as up north, but it does strengthen over much of Tenn. I will keep my chips on straight wind, and perhaps several reports, but we'll see. It is April!

Michigan fans are the worst. They were total jerks in Atlanta (Final Four). Syracuse fans are great though. Anyway I have to cheer for Villanova tonight. Nova's Coach Wright gave words of encouragement to KU's Devonte Graham after the game, very classy. Game should be high scoring and entertaining.

Chattanooga booked our third straight pitifully awful winter in a row. I know we live in the South, but this is ludicrous. Will give it a D, avoiding F only due to a trace. Like storm chasing it's all local though. Other parts of the South got B to A+ (Griteater recap). Congrats there!

Time to start the warm season banter thread. Before Final Four talk, I want to write the following weenie post. Can we lock in the 11Z HRRR? Late afternoon LEWP for Chattanooga!

Operational models are beginning to show more surface low press in the 11-15 day which lines up with the discussion above. GFS is more consistent than a day ago, sending stout low press through the Ohio Valley. Euro ensembles surface low spaghetti plots are mighty active too. Early season one often looks for the warm front. Most readers know I also favor outflow boundaries OFB. Going into April the classic severe signature is actually low press to the north, with a trailing surface trough through the South. Said trough should also show a bow shape through the southern states. Shape is from a surging cold front or pre-frontal trough. For chasing I still like OFB intersections, but down the trough is as active or moreso than the warm front in a textbook April setup. Like with snow, the 11-15 day is fantasyland. Those with severe wx concerns need not be worried. Enthusiasts keep looking for that surface pattern, plus strong upper level winds turning with height. West Pacific tropical storm adds uncertainty to the 11-15 day. UPDATE: Last 24 hours of NWP have trended cooler in the 11-15 day. Could zig zag some more before settling. West Pac TS keeps churning. US Navy and Japan Met Agency both have it gradually strengthening to 50 kts before slowly winding down. Turns north away from the Phils and into open sea. Back home, cooler 11-15 is lower risk severe. THIS WEEK 3/28-29: Diurnal timing looks off for severe. Wave and surface low try to strengthen Wednesday, but over the Ozarks southward. Cool pool also stabilizes. System passes through Thursday morning and weakens during the day. So, just heavy rain here. Deep South is closest severe threat. If interesting I'd post Southeast sub/region.

Thanks Carvers! Yes I had the Vols going farther too. Loyola came to ball though. Kansas is peaking at the right time. KU has found its groove playing fundamental basketball. Defense is much tougher and the offense is comfortable with mid-range jumpers. Duke almost won at the end of regulation. Their last shot rimmed out so lucky for KU. Then in OT Kansas upper classmen had the huge advantage. Good D, contesting that last shot, built confidence. Couple turnovers and smart possessions closed the deal in OT. Kansas had lost our last 3 Elite Eight games 2013, 2016 and 2017. Coach Self is probably right that playing another blueblood like Duke actually reduced pressure. Just go out and have fun! I am so thrilled back to the Final Four!! I have to add this group of players is very special. Senior Night is always emotional, but Svi Mykailiuk and Devonte Graham gave particularly inspiring speeches with family there. Graham's family was there again for the Regional. In context after Senior Night, watching everyone gather around his family on the way to the Final Four was so amazing.

I joked we'd have Feb in March after having March in Feb. Apparently the temperature data supports it, lol. I also wonder if the Feb warmth was a precursor to the SSW. It all started with a near record MJO pulse IMHO. Did it go tropo, to strato, back to tropo? SSW was near record too. The other issue I saw going into the SSW is the cold strato was on our side and warm strato was over Asia. Cold started that side of the World. Then Europe and the British Isles got the Beast from the East. Finally the USA is still seeing the hangover. Going forward the CFS and Euro weeklies diverge sharply. We'll see if the Euro finds some mild weather tonight. MJO is muddled so I like more variability. Plus that West Pac tropical storm. CFS can and occasionally does beat the ECMWF. Hopefully the Euro comes around..

Warning system worked well from TV Mets publicizing the Convective Outlook, though the Watches, and of course good lead-time Warnings. Wish they all ended this way! Severe weather is quite possible in the South middle to late next week. However it might be south of our Region, more Deep South. We'll see how that low/wave tracks along the quasi-stationary front. Either track the wind fields are forecast to be there. One thing with confidence, as Jax mentions, flooding will be a factor. UPDATE: Going with an ECMWF/ICON compromise and throwing out the GFS rubbish.

I really want to be in Winter Place Ski Area (WV) this weekend, but we have a commitment in Chatty. I'm never tired of snow, lol! Figure the snow talk is reduced since the lower elevations are out of it. However for the Mountains, it appears snow chances roll on. This weekend I believe the temp gradient Holston mentions will indeed set up again. Looks like it's elevation driven. Of course we have mountain ranges either side of and parallel to I-81. However at the same time I-81 really rises going into Wytheville. Believe cold air drains from the Blue Ridge toward Wytheville. Meets the Valley warm nose just southwest of there. Temp gradient results. Partial thicknesses and 700 mb temps indicate warm nose risk for northeast Tenn. Vort max tracks north which takes away the chance of dynamic bail-out. However I think the mountains will get snow. Also just up I-81 in Virginia could get snow. TRI could get Valley heartbreak this system, but I do like farther northeast in VA. I really want to be in southern West Virginia in case it jogs north.