nrgjeff

Nice picture! Are the reds gone, tardy, or never? Strange late warmth this year.

Euro goes all in cooler pattern. Is it playing on tilt? CFS hints and more zonal or split flow, vs meridonal, in later weeks. CFS has in the past sniffed out warmer regimes. However some teleconnections support the Euro. Short term issues like Michael dominate my time though. At least we know endless summer is over!

ECMWF Euro monthlies are all cold December through March. I'll believe it when I see it, but figured I'd report. Cold is not extreme but no warm months are shown after October. November is near normal, zero line bisects region warmer SE. Storm track fluctuates between too wet and mild, too dry and cold, and some ideal. I guess that's climo, lol!

Confidence is increasing we finally get some fall weather per timing just above. Mid-latitudes and tropics appear to both attack the SER. Tropics stuff can cause heat in August, but in October they usually end up ushering in cooler weather. Then the mid-latitude system has a robust cold air mass with which to work. Cold probably won't rush in here, but the SER can't resist forever. OK it just held up for a really long time, but that's not forever, lol!

Confidence is greater on El Nino after data the last couple weeks. I've been around but quite busy at work and home with activities. Also American Wx fell off my routine when it crashed for a few days. El Nino could still turn out basin wide, but odds slightly favor Modoki.

Looks very warm early next week even after weekend showers. Front late next week lacks fall conviction; but, it should take out the 70s dewpoints and usher in somewhat more reasonable 60s Tds (after a day or two 50s I-40 north). Might have to wait until October for 50s Tds to hang around. First stout front on the weeklies appears the first week of Oct. However even it may have trouble clearing our region into the Southeast. +PNA probably favors Plains cool still over the Southeast. We are not approaching winter wavelengths because of both the calendar (any year) and lingering summer pattern (this year). Antmasiello (HM) Tweets a road map to cool Southeast based on an alternate interpretation of Mangkhut remnants and the Pac jet extension; however, it is just a scenario. Personally I favor continued warmth toward mid-Oct. However it should be much more variable with the season; and, we might have days a stationary front bisects Tenn. Yuck! Weekly clusters still have have majority warm clusters, or at least large minority warm clusters, weeks 3-6. Also see lots of +NAO clusters. I'm afraid most of October could be warm. It will be comfortable either way but... For winter lovers, hopefully late October offers the flip cold. Yeah, I'll take some severe too, with any transition. Winter Spec thread science got derailed temporarily for a few posts on linguistics. Thankfully it is back on track now. Yes, November often foreshadows the rest of winter with a decent/strong correlation. I would not call it make or break, but November is very important - even El Nino years where hopes are back loaded. So, winter lovers hope for a cold flip in Oct. Closing on Fall Topic, while I am leaning warm October I would not mind if Anthony is right instead. Hoping for cold fronts, but leaning continued warm...

Yes subsidence esp. northwest of tropical systems is a pressure cooker. Florence then decided to act like a warm front and drag in humidity all over as it lifted north. Seems to get any dry air benefit from a 'cane, it needs to ride up the coast and tap into cooler air to our north as it goes hybrid. Florence never really went hybrid because the polar front basically AWOL from the eastern CONUS so late in Sept. Of course it found a quasi-dry slot to tornado Richmond, but any hybrid characteristics were too little too late for humidity relief here. Relentless...

It has to come from the southwest rule appears to be true no matter what kind of low press. Winter storm, spring severe, mid-latitude, cold core, warm core, tropical... from Mars, well just kidding about that one!

CFS is also on fire all winter. Both models may be influenced by generally warm oceans over the entire Northern Hemisphere. Perhaps the late bloom of El Nino will behave more like weak Nino; and, get us some winter back half per ECMWF.

Kansas football won 2 in a row! Pinch me. Hope it's not as fake as Mike Bettis in the wind, lol!

Wind didn't seem high enough to rip the leaves. Also lucky it did not happen a couple weeks later. Anybody reports from elevation? Valley was a snoozer, but some nice sunrises and sunsets!

MRX and WPC raised QPF a bit on the Upper Plateau. Looks like with Florence tracking nearby/east, vs west of the Plateau, the south side of Florence can indeed get a chance to flip winds around from the northwest on Monday. The said QPF is a little delayed compared to the Smoky Mtns, not just waiting on the low press. but also the wind shift. Saturday skies were so beautiful deep blue like we rarely see. We actually had some nice blue days the last week, but Saturday was a true gem.

Jeff Piotrowski, Jeff Gammons and others are already documenting surge coming up on the barrier islands, midday Thursday. Florence still has as much energy as it did before, but the wind field is spread out. Unfortunately the storm surge will be major hurricane material. When a figure skater spreads out, spin slows down; but, they have the same momentum and energy as before. I'm afraid what we trade in for less wind damage will net out worse with storm surge damage. Inland flooding has not changed, devastating. While I appreciate their documenting it, this Jeff ain't chasin' any 'canes! My tornado drought would have to go on a couple more years to impact my judgement that way, lol!

Latest NWP tracks show a pause and pivot in NC on Saturday; then, a start west on Sunday. The pivot is why I believe far northeast Tennessee (TRI) East KY, southwest VA, and of course NC should get a few to several inches of rain. Still the worst will stay east of here. Meanwhile the CFS followed the Euro weeklies cooler (or at least less warm) later this month. Hopefully! This may be my last post of the week depending on Florence. Stay safe.

Good news the 12Z Euro backed off QPF everywhere, but verbatim it's still very serious from the NC Piedmont into central Virginia. Given ensembles and other guidance I like the downward QPF around TRI and surrounding areas. Even the HWRF shifted right, though still the farthest west of the majors. Still 4-5 inches of rain is a lot of water to manage. Indeed Florence could take a path rarely seen. From such a high latitude they usually get turned out to sea. Hugo did come from farther south. However in 2018 we have the Beast Ridge. Always a first time, or at least first in a long while. GFS is farther east/north because it weakens the ridge slightly relative to the Euro/ECMWF. Brick wall stall remains the big question, so important for QPF. It is actually possible an influencing trough retrogrades in from the east in several days, after rounding the ridge from the north. That type of detail will definitely change. Still, it is something to look for if seeking a way out.