nrgjeff
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Count me in the weenie group. When that low passed to our south I was about to put a shoe through my TV. Next couple systems look weak and/or positive tilt. That's good to keep severe wx away from the already battered South. GFS and Euro both want to tee up Easter weekend, but it's Day 10. MJO / KWs. are still muddled with two separate areas going. North American modeling will probably be flaky.
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TVA has a great article on the rain this year, and compares to last year. Seems Nature's SOP is break a record, and then break it again the next year. 2020 1Q set a 3-month rainfall record. https://www.tva.com/Newsroom/Rain-Rain-Go-Away
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SPC goes with a tornado watch that gets to KATL and all of the southern 'burbs. While the LLJ is a little veered, it is bringing in a moist fetch. Also surface winds are really backed on that retreating boundary. Regarding that LLJ, I've noticed southern Georgia can produce while a little veered off. I think most of the Atlanta metro is OK, some morning rain and the atmo should not recover / destabilize enough to get nasty later. South Georgia could have a day though.
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Jonesboro tornado trolled all the Illinois and Iowa chasers. Thankfully nobody was killed, but news says some serious injuries. OK we get a break this week. Probably a good thing. Models saw the East trough last week, and it's in progress now. Next week could get active again. Convection is coming out of the Indian Ocean toward Indonesia (maritime sub-continent). Lead by the ECMWF all models are coming around to a West trough. Euro verbatim favors Plains/Midwest. Getting into April it could go north, south and/or both. I don't have any plan to chase anything beyond 2 hours. Dixie just isn't worth the drive, lol.
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Thursday night the stars were particularly vivid. I could almost discern the Milky Way from MBY but not quite near the city. Still the peaceful feeling out under the stars was incredible. Figure with reduced pollution in these times the star gazing will be excellent on clear nights.
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Gulf will also help severe season along. LOL the CFC flip flops on ENSO. Ahh, that spring predictability barrier.
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Synoptic WF appears to have made it as far north as I-80/88; however, outflow farther south in central Illinois is obvious on the surface chart (10am Central Time). I figure the rouge cells ahead advertised on some CAMs will go on that OFB. Given how sharp the WF is up north, I'd favor the OFB. Note I have a strong personal bias toward OFB. Still could be chaser's choice. I'm also not in the field today; so, with a virtual chase I can afford to take forecast risks. Still I have to like 1-2 cells east of where the OFB intersects the Pacific front / quasi-DL. Good luck, and be safe!
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Late summer drought (perhaps flash repeat) would not shock me. Risk of sooner, but depends on if SER is dirty or clean. Until then pretty wet, yuck!
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Hopefully the -NAO is a joke too. Might as well get on with spring. Let the SER give us some sun and Vitamin D! Long range I have to favor a persistent SER. TNI might get backwards for severe early / SER late spring. However, the broad forcing is already acting Nina. So after electric load goes on holiday, maybe utilities can make some money back this summer. HOT and HUMID - Dry heat is off the table after all this rain.
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Big changes since Sunday. Instead of Ohio River Valley jungle, we now have an outflow boundary in North Alabama and just south of KCHA. Still plenty of failure modes. A. Rain-out B. Veered off C. Capped (too little too late) D. Combo of 2-3 above E. Rather watch sports reruns Early season is prone to failures, which is of course good for the general public. That said I figure ENH is incoming. Obviously if something is close to KCHA I'll take a look. No chase greater than 2 hours though; so, I won't be visiting the chasable northwest Bama area today.
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We got throttled March 2012. I've nothing much on this week. Veered off trash. Only turning is in the Ohio River Valley jungle. Back to NCAA Basketball reruns!
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I expect Tuesday will get an Outlook on Saturday morning or soon after. Euro remained consistent if not stronger. LLJ is a touch veered, but not like the last two systems. It's fortunately not backed like Super Tuesday either. Upper level winds are a given. Low level theta E (temps/humidity) will be a question. Even with all those caveats, if the Euro holds, one has to think Tuesday gets a 15%.
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Be safe @Calderon and thank you for your service!
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A less smug tone is appreciated next time. Thank you. Holston you are a better person than me, lol!
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The Midwest can have it. Dixie had enough heartache for the season.
