nrgjeff

Looks like a classic Illinois day on Wednesday. Parameters are high, and that could all go into a windstorm, but I have to favor supercells initially. So far looks like morning rain will scoot out and leave a lovely outflow boundary with which to work. Factors that should get a big ol' bow echo going are WAA at 850 / 700 mb, 500 mb orientation / height falls, deepening sfc low, high instability, and an east-west boundary (outflow). That said, barring a quick mess, I'm thinking Illinois will book another tornado day. Models line up with the morning rain pattern recognition. In this case looks like it gets away in plenty of time to reheat. Outflow boundary OFB will locally enhance low-level shear. Some of the soundings are little skinny, but that may be a result of temperature forecast uncertainty. Should be skinny north of the OFB, probably fatter south of it. Both sides the LI is robust. Should get supercells along both the synoptic boundary and outflow. As usual we favor the boundary intersection. Also as usual, exact strategy will be a game time decision. Right on the intersection, or 1-2 cells east of it. Back on Thursday I believe the cyclical beast of the day was east of the main triple point, but on another differential heating boundary. Time will tell how Wednesday goes. From pattern recognition I infer initial tornadoes, perhaps 1-3 cyclical supercells. Then it will congeal into quite the bow echo.

Seems to be a wall at the Appalachian Mountains. Some SC peeps on X are gnashing their teeth. They'll get some storms and wind but it literally blows over. Slower moving rain and systems are here on our side. Thursday looks like more of the same. Big ol' slug of moisture will come up from the Gulf. Some hints of even a LLJ into the Tennessee Valley. After some good rain around here the system speeds up and fills over the Carolinas with lower QPF that way. We still have a long way to go on our own drought. I suppose we'll make more progress later this week. My lawn seems perfectly fine now.

Friday the whole thing got undercut by outflow. Then it regenerated east of the Apps. Speaking of the Mountains, got a Slight on Sunday. The mountains are always calling, but I'm not sure if that's for chasing, lol! I'm really interested in midweek. Verbatim it's a Midwest issue. We'll just see where outflow boundaries may lie. Winds aloft are forecast to be pretty strong for mid-June by mid-week, stronger than this current weekend.

Friday is kind of Slight or nothing with that CAPE. Where it goes it'll go fast. Only reason for a marginal is placement of initiation; otherwise, should go from shower to severe quickly. Wind will be the main threat though. MRX has some concern about a boundary draped across the region. Winds will mostly be veered off which keeps the threat straight. However any boundary cooking in June can do things right where the SRH is locally higher. Then if the boundary is on the Upper Plateau, we know what can happen. While SPC omits 2% MRX leaves the door cracked. (AFD not map) Red line is mine. Keep it broad north of Tenn. I'm less familiar with the terrain.

yeah wake me up when football starts. North America pattern is really going to the dogs. Rex block will be replaces by an Omega block. Anything underneath is trash, no wind shear, plus too much rain. Plains is totally shut down east of the Rockies foothills. Should still get thunderstorms around here with systems passing through. Probably not much severe. Breaking the drought takes several rounds, so that's probably the good part of all this mess.

Oh wow I was mainly kidding about the obligatory Upper Plateau tornado, posts from Thursday and early Friday. Anybody still have the radar shots from the time? I doubt they missed an obvious signature. Maybe it was one of those difficult spin-ups. UPDATE for Sunday: So close yet so blob. No chase attempt is being made. We are safe in East Brainerd, not even in the severe polygon. Looks windy on US-27 where TN-153 comes in. Signal Mtn members check in when you can!

If northeast Alabama into northwest Georgia can push 80 degrees this may expand east. I still think Tennessee will be too messy. We'll see about Tenn. Crossville likes to Crossville these skinny CAPE low level shear days. Upper Plateau gets first crack at the LLJ. Otherwise, as of 10:30 Central Time, a west-east differential heating boundary is noted from Birmingham to Atlanta. Northward lift will depend on precip.

Oh my I'm going to have a nervous breakdown because they can't ever get clear of the trees! That is a truly crisp sculpted specimen though. Just a little more jet dynamics (upper and LLJ) would have produced. Which brings me to Friday. SPC language reads like a decaying tropical system. Meh lapse rates but low-level helicity. Be nice to get more structure like that at least. Drawback is that - just like tropical - anything will be brief. Advantage is it'll be mid-afternoon, no late drive back. We'll see. Marginal chance to save my season, which right now is going about like that of my KC Royals. Valid Friday May 22

Shockingly Chattanooga got a true summer morning soaker. Also the CPC 6-10 day chart is AN rainfall. Given what's on the way Friday and Monday, scattered over the weekend, and whatever after that.. Barring an epic failure some drought relief is incoming.

Thunderstorms are over the Appalachians and other terrain today. See PA, WV, and soon today our Mountains. So, is that how summer is gonna go? They guy who can't chase this weekend is venting. Thanks for reading. Augh!

Wednesday would be a lot more interesting if low level winds were going to back. NW flow with modest dewpoints could give some nice, sculpted updrafts though. Wed might be decent for photography. Then early next week we'll see if we can get a system into the Mid-South. Current forecasts have it weakening as it moves out of the Plains into the Midwest. Just scattered showers for the Mid-South.

Latest drought monitor is out. Chipping away at the extreme drought in Middle and West Tenn. Rainfall tally ended Tuesday so East doesn't have what just fell. I figure North Mississippi improved too. We have another week or so of a somewhat active pattern. Then it wants to shift back to the Midwest - which could still clip the Mid-South. East Tennessee needs more help before that shift. Some mid-range guidance has rain chances again in the 11-15 day period, so the week of May 18. Models try to bring one more trough through the Great Lakes that period. We'll see. Climo is gonna start favoring the Plains in late May.

Today has potential if it's close. Who cares if it's sloppy, low visibility, full of trees and hills? In the South we go mess or we go home, lol! Worst case you get a country drive, and get back in time for the NBA playoffs. Yeah that overcast is a real problem south of the boundary. It'd be acceptable north of the boundary until early afternoon. South of the boundary really needs some heating soon to start destabilizing. Lapse rates are there above the low-level crud. Yeah the LLJ is weakening and retreating north. However upper-level winds remain stronger than what is necessary. Absolutely need the outflow boundary to locally back winds and create favorable SRH. 10% is probably right for just the boundary*. Otherwise looks like messy storm modes. Even on the boundary storm interaction could be a problem. What's new in the South? * I see two boundaries. Yes along I-20 is the coastal front or some other dewpoint differential. It lumbers north more in Alabama thanks to less overcast (still I-20). Agree that's the one for the best chance of discrete sups and tor. Synoptic lumbering front is in North Mississippi and North Alabama (almost Tenn border). It'll have storms, but more interaction and more problems. Also if one overlays the hatched hail with the hatched tornado, indirect way of looking for sups, it favors Miss. 10% in Bama could be messy mode. Again, they all could be messy. If I'm in JAN or BHM I'd plan on wrapping up work a few minutes early to chase. If it looks like crap enjoy a rainy evening watching sports at home. As for me, no plans to depart Chatty.

Wednesday is another outflow boundary special. May might feel late for the Deep South but early May is still prime time climo down there. LLJ is gonna be veered off quite a bit; but, strong upper-level winds will create robust speed shear and decent directional shear right on the outflow boundary. Said boundary will be key. Away from that locally higher low-level shear the storm relative shear won't quite support tornadoes. I think the narrow 10% is the right call for Wed. Otherwise it's straight wind and perhaps hail from hotter cells. Storm mode looks like a mix of segments and blobs, with a few sups. Valid Wed. May 6

Well it's Facebook. Some of that looks like La Nina like the central Rockies and OV. Though the immediate West Coast and much of the Great Lakes checks out. Who knows the model or methodology? I just learned Tennessee basketball picked up the #1 offense thanks to transfers and the like. What? Football comes first. It's always basketball season in my head!