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Seems like Tennessee is back on track. Come from behind on the road in a conference game is always a big W. Elsewhere in the SEC I think Alabama has righted their ship. Georgia should still be fine though. Ole Miss should get a big ranking boost. In pro we Chiefs fans can breathe a little easier. L. Jackson was in for 3Q so Baltimore what a good test. D has improved significantly. Offense may be finding its form, though Ravens D gave up a lot to Buffalo too. Do you know what's really crazy? Late Night for basketball programs is just around the corner. Overlap of college sports is the most wonderful time of the year!

This discussion is hawt! I'd like all the posts but then I'd run out of reactions for the day. Yeah the QBO trending down is important. I'm not a subscriber to buried negative in autumn. Give me the down trend. Rate of change could be far more useful than a deep negative snapshot. Siberian snow I also prefer a corollary over just the coverage anomaly. Why is coverage AN? A stormy start to the season drops a lot of snow, but might not be the path to -AO. A COLD start up there with high press, snow driven by temps not stormy, might be better for an eventual -AO. PSL Map Room: Global Circulation (Quick Menu): NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory is where I go to look. Unfortunately I see BN surface pressure in Siberia. I prefer AN Siberia with lower mean press in China. Ditto temp anomalies; I'd prefer they trade places. I use words like could be, might be for the QBO and Siberian Snow because neither has as solid a track record as was advertised 15 years ago. I still think they are useful as one tool in the tool belt. I also write from the good/bad perspective of want Southeast snow. The PDO could promote +PNA episodes which are cold in the Southeast. Wavelength matters though. And we need the WPO to cooperate with the EPO; otherwise, congratulations Great Plains! All that said, source region matters. 10 year trend matters. I lean mild for winter. However I don't have the torchy vibes I've had several recent winter forecasts. We may in the battle zone between temp regimes.

Well hopefully this is our last warm spell. I've been off the board for a while, but all is well. With tropical cyclones staying offshore it allows warmth through the middle of the week. Still might get some Mountain t-storms. I'm hoping for some Tropical high clouds Monday evening to set up a gorgeous sunset but that might be only a Carolina thing. Looks like some new members, or back after a while. Woo-hoo! Welcome @midwoodianand @louise.caison233to the best Region on the Forum. Yeah Signal Mountain forecasting is a whole other animal. Slips under the model radar, yet big enough to make an impact. Then there's the ol' 2 inches of snow on Signal with lovely brown ground in the Valley! Somebody asked me about fall foliage, about which I have no clue but somehow I always make a guess. My thinking is the August rain saved southeast Tennessee from a dull autumn. Northeast Tennessee seems to find a way no matter what. Elsewhere might have drought stress from July and August. Recent dry is less of an issue since trees start to go to sleep even while they're still green in Sept. However it goes the other way; recent Sept. rain might not help much. We'll see. Fall foliage is like a box of chocolates!

Yeah if winter is going to be warm, might as well tee up a severe wx buffet line! The monthly charts are hideous for snow. SER might be overdone. Surface cold might do better than progged. However the precip charts (AN Mid South) scream cutters.. and severe! for Snow I prefer AN precip to my south (the rain). low Liquid content snow should be near normal north of the rain. Even BN qpf can work for snow in colder regimes. AN qpf is almost always rain. Should I move that last paragraph to winter topic? Nah, because I don't think it'll actually be that bad. North Pac is warm. Here I'm just jawboning severe.

Looks hot the next two weeks through maybe Wed. Sept. 25 but mercifully humidity should be low to moderate. Only drawback with low RH is the drought will get worse in the Mid-South and western half of our region. Drought might even spread east. Not as hot east, but still dry. -GLAAM favors the warm pattern. While the ECMWF weekly is warm forever (what's new?) the CFS drops a Great Lakes trough at the end of the month, somewhat helped by a slight +PNA. Even with the GLAAM situation even a slightly +PNA can allow the said trough. CFS makes sense to get our region's temps back to normal. Euro weekly has a similar 500 mb pattern with a Midwest trough. It's west of the CFS trough axis; so, the Euro keeps the Southeast warm. Gonna have to disagree though. With normal heights, surface cool fronts should make it. Sure it'll be a day later than progged, but FROPA will happen. Bottom line: I have to go with the CFS milder late Sept. Hard spot: I figure drought could expand east more than CPC shows. We'll see. Little NW flow surprises like today might mitigate such a thing.

See if we can tee up some more super structures today.. or just be an after thought relative to Thursday. I always like the Upper Plateau. Just a bit more upper level wind support per SPC text, plus the topography.

Nice evenings and mornings make warm afternoons in the 80s easy going this week. Except Friday could hit 90 which will feel hot. Prefrontal warming strikes before a cool weekend. Looking out a week the next warm up is weaker, as one would expect deeper into September. Great Lakes trough will take a couple short-waves to cool down our region. See Friday prefrontal heat. Later next week after the Great Lakes mean trough fills, 500 mb heights should remain at or below normal in the Southeast. Midwest warmth should get into the Mid-South at times but it should be brief.

2010-2011 winter had the White Christmas in Chattanooga, storybook with 3-4 inches of snow that morning. Then we got hammered 8-10 inches mid-January. I think one other true accumulating snow happened (Dec 13 or 14). Then we got a few little dustings. IIRC it was a good year from the Mid-South to the Great Valley.

I'm split on that. Do we need crazy cold source regions? Probably for sustained retro cold. Doubtful for quick intense shots like we get. Long as the AO flips cold will get delivered somewhere in the mid-latitudes. Other teleconnections help forecast exactly where, but as we've discussed it gets nebulous in the last decade or two. One thing to note is a marine heat wave across much of the northern Pacific Ocean. Parts of the Atlantic are similar. Mercifully it's not all in the Tropical Atlantic. Some hypothesize, and after some success we could say theorize, warmer oceans up north create conditions favorable for blocking. I'm talking general blocking -AO not necessarily cold air destination. So while warm oceans could promote a mild fall, warm SSTs could also set up some winter blocking. Current situation is an example of how it can be warmer than normal in Western Canada, while the Southeast is cool. Well that's an old teleconnection too, but for sustained cold the source does need to reload.

The flow Wednesday night into the weekend, and the system Thursday, would be really great in the winter, esp after the Sunday then Tuesday fronts to put cool air in place. Well somebody had to say it. I have done my duty!

Disrespectful is a good way to describe foul weather. I'll have to remember that! Yeah the worst heat should break for the season after today (Wednesday). Some folks I-40 north are already in the new airmass. Still cookin' south of the front! As usual I forecast this first CF to be weaker than progged. NAM 2m is too cool. MOS and NWS are on that with average highs (aggregate region) 88-90 through Sunday. Some will enjoy 80s esp up on the Plateau and near Kentucky. The rest of us will have to wait for front #2. Clark she's a beaut! -Cousin Eddy First front is mostly low levels behind Erin with only modest Td improvement. Second front for Monday has true upper air support with trough over GL even OV. That'll deliver for our Tenn Valley including scouring some dews. Then the trough pattern seems to hold for a week to 10 days from Monday. Looks like it might warm up again after Labor Day but we're talking around 90 with lower humidity and ever lower sun angle. That'd doable.

Fortunately we all got home before all the flash flooding in Hamilton County. Usual trouble spots got bad, and few new problem areas showed up. So far it's the second highest daily rainfall at KCHA. First was around Labor Day 2011 but that was over a longer period all day. Today was pretty much all in a few hours. Others in the Chattanooga area and also Bradley County, please check in when you have a chance. Today was intense.

Eastern Valley has more chances to get rain especially Tuesday. Not everyone got it the past 7 days but more chances are coming. I'm happy the Eastern Valley heat got pushed back a few more days. With any amount of luck the heat this weekend, book-ended by similar weekdays, could be the last of the worst of summer. Depending on how any tropical cyclone behaves the heat ridge could either be augmented or chipped at. Either way prolly a few hot days here. Toward the end of August we might be able to trim dewpoints even temps creep back up. Late August fronts don't help temps much past 1-2 days* but they and chip away at dews. Either way the sun angle gets noticaby lower which takes the edge off midday too. Late August sun angle is the same as mid-April. LOL the temps part! *Apparently early August fronts set record low maxes though.

I'm back after recovering from end of summer family trip and beginning of school. @Carvers Gapmy delayed response to the ECMWF monthlies pretty much sums up my enthusiasm. SSTs could help blocking, but I can't beliee it. Plus we could run into meh cold in the source regions. Clusters each month are about 50/50 with a warm cluster of course each month. I figure one of those months could come in colder than normal. Feels like either Dec or Feb. January thaw seems popular recent years. In this case it's flat ridgy under the Midwest cold. Too early for a real forecast so I like what @*Flash* posted. Sorry Dallas Cowboys fans! Texas was the first thing I really noticed. Midwest and Plains are funny too.

Lightning was impressive both times here in Chattanooga. Today it was vivid enough to be noticeable during daylight along with crashing thunder. Wednesday night was the more traditional summer evening light show and (mostly) rolling thunder. We had one crash boom last night too that made the normally oblivious cat jump!