nrgjeff

I give winter an B in southeast Tennessee. Snowfall was slightly above normal IMBY which lifts it above C. A is reserved for a six inch thumper. B means I'm not complaining. I'm actually quite satisfied. Fighting the trend is hard too, so really a C would be a win. Temperatures are about half-way between the coldest and the warmest in Earth's history. Warm periods include tropical forests on Greenland and Arctica. Ice Ages oscillate between glaciation periods (what the public refers to ice ages) and interglacial periods which we are in right now (within the broader Ice Age). Will we glaciate, hold, or climb out of the Ice Age? If the latter it would be an order or two magnitudes SLOWER than the current trend of warming. What has happened in the last 150 years and what is very likely in the next 150 years is 10 to 100 times faster than natural warming driven by Milankovitch Cycles. Rate is the problem, and why we assign the cause to human activity. I'm not calling for extreme action since cheap energy is the fastest route to end poverty, but I want to acknowledge the research. That's probably enough outside of the specific Climate forum, but that place is a hornet's nest. From this point forward, look for me in the Severe Weather topic of our Regional forum.

Appears that the first third of March could be active for severe. We have a remarkable signal for west trough and east ridge, with a strong jet stream driven by the still cold Arctic. SPC already has Wednesday in their Day 6, and that's probably just the beginning. Sometimes it's easier to infer long-range things from the heavy rain outlook(s). Grey flooding is pretty much the 3-7 day outlook from WPC, but this is the long-range from CPC. Period below could feature record high temps from the Mid-South through Tennessee to the Mid-Atlantic. Heights look particularly anomalous over the Mid-Atlantic. Less extreme heights over the Mid-South with still near record surface temps could open the door for severe. Surace details are always TBD, especially a week out. In this situation one can be more confident than usual about week two moisture with the temps (CAPE) thanks to pattern recognition. Several troughs pass without driving the surface front south. That's a recipe for building moisture. All that said, those severe weather anxious should not worry 10 days out. Storm chasers though, need to get ready to roll. Both can be true. Chance of one place being hit is low. Chasers can go to the forecast area though. My spring mode is activated.

We live vicariously through the Sierra Nevada cement snow. Also we're spoiled by a good season in most areas. Some years we'd be salivating over this weekend. Let's have some fun with the upside potential 10% chance from WPC experimental probabilistic precip. portal from the Winter tab. 72-hr fcst ignore the 24 hr. Note that 50/50 most likely model forecast consensus lines up with the main WPC front page and winter page. Probably not much snow south of MRX in the Valley. Let's see if the Tri Cities can surprise.

AIFS is on board from northeast Tennessee and points north and east. Upper Plateau would still need more help. Euro gins it up farther east, but I think it tried that with Giannis. While I don't see Chattanooga involved this time, I'm hoping for something like the GFS (or overall blend). Still need to get some ski runs in up at elevation. WPC has minor impacts probs already for Sunday and Monday. I like the same areas.

We are at the point in the season where I'm more interested in severe than snow. Of course I'm in Chattanooga. If I was up I-81 I'd have a better attitude. Great thing about next week is that little lead trough through the Great Lakes. Our southern trough is not the first; so, moisture return will already be in progress.

That one really pissed me off! Especially after the Burrowhead crap in KC the week prior. Fortunately KU won a natty several weeks later. Weekend of the 22nd has F U Chattanooga vibes all over it. Could snow along I-81. Other solutions are rain everywhere - winter over. I'm a little salty because I haven't gotten the kids up on skis yet this year. Perhaps the MJO coming around by early March will give the Mountains another chance or two.

The really cold classic winter pattern is probably over. However bowling balls and other vigorous systems can still bring snow for another month, especially I-40 north. Indeed the torch does not last forever and the 16-20 day trends back toward normal temps.

My guess is that level of damage is why Mississippi is slow to get restored. NES is close to fully restored. @Carvers Gap my charts above are just as likely to be fulfilled by the polar jet as the STJ since it's still early season. I'm agnostic as to which. I just want action, ha! All, if we transferred some of the CAPE from the February thread we'd have a decent shot at severe. Sorry it's Free for All Friday!

Welcome to the land of Nada this weekend. You're a week late, ha! Yea the clipper has some gumption on clouds physics. Separately, we need to re-open Politics over in Off-Topic to let off some steam. Better there than here!

Ice storm started as a heavy rain outlook from CPC. Let's not do that again! Instead, how about severe weather?

Chase early. Chase often!

Few flurries in Chattanooga Sunday evening. I did a double take. Hoarfrost is as beautiful as ice, with zero impacts. Winner! The moonlight pix? Those have 99% solar eclipse vibes. Only 19 more years!

Above was a layup forecast with this low-level profile and upper level cold.

Regarding Chattanooga proper, we're just not a northwest flow town. I'm quite happy with the event though. Signal Mountain may restart if it hasn't already. Might as well be another Universe. As for Florida, ever since the Gulf of America, lol!

Hytop looks like an elevation map west of Chatty. Y'all enjoy! Then northeast Alabama drew a winter wx advisory. Where are or North Bama crew? Separately @Holston_River_Rambler lee of the Lakes had to be producing at the time of your image. RGB at the time had the orange tint to clouds.