nrgjeff

I'm wall to wall blowtorch. Deep South severe all winter. Early season start to severe Mid-South. Of course the eastern Valley will find a way to be cool. Great for storm anxious, but just one more thing about which I will vent!

Unfortunately I believe that Carvers is right. I know we've had some warm Septembers, but this is effin' ludicrous! I can handle a couple ridiculous weeks, but the whole month looks ludicrous. And this week is effin' plaid! (Spaceballs)

Yeah the Northern Hemisphere is locked in with this wave count. SER today, SER tomorrow.. well y'all know the rest.

Lunar eclipse turned out really well Thursday night with peak just after 11pm Central and just after Midnight Friday Eastern Time. High clouds had no impact. Figured as much two days early but work obligations prevented me from starting a thread. I laugh about how neurotic I get about even thin clouds for a TSE; but, so chill about a lunar eclipse. Perhaps I need to do more deep breaths before a solar show. Next I propose that a deep lunar eclipse* is as beautiful or even more so than a total lunar eclipse. Get an extended lunar version of the diamond ring phase. Through binoculars I observed 3 stars with the Moon. It really felt other worldly and it was gorgeous! Telescope didn't add much value other than for photography. I feel like lunar eclipses are a naked eye and binoculars event. Here are my photos. Let's share! *** Lunar eclipses are unique in that deep partial is more than good enough. Solar eclipses are all or nothing. Get into totality or forget about it! ***

I am about to rage about the odd ball streaming games. Sports has become an even more crooked hack. Time to go back into the archive. All this Spanish eclipse stuff has me reflecting on 2017 and 2024 in the USA.

Things should heat up soon from MRX to TRI, eventually unzippering through Knox and Chatt. Monday Aug. 17 The SPC bumped up wind to 30% (not shown) but it is still Slight because no hatch. We'll see if 30% verifies. Requires the said multiple bowing segments. Otherwise 15% would do. I suspect any bowing segment would provide some nice photography. Just don't get struck by lightning. This airmass (very deep CAPE) has promoted prolific lightning for a week now.

Frankly I'd rather talk eclipses instead of hot weather, lol! Yeah the lunar eclipse Aug. 27-28 is happening Time and Date dot com also has good info. Perhaps unpopular take, but I believe lunar eclipses are very under-rated. I'm not gonna sit here and say they compete with total solar or bright Aurora; they don't. But I'm gonna say a deep / total lunar eclipse competes with comets and other astro-treats. I prefer a lunar eclipse over structure only storm chase, perhaps even over brief tornado. Then while with solar, it's 100% total or nothing! ..Lunar is different. Deep partial with long diamond ring phase is really gorgeous. With solar the diamond can't compete with Totality. Lunar is different.. I love a 95-98% partial. Had that back in 2022 and it was stunning. Finally, clouds are more forgiving. We got about an hour vs 2-4 precious minutes. From @KakashiHatake2000 above originally Met Eric Snitil.

CFS and ECMWF are both pretty cold for core winter. However several other season models are warmer. I suppose if one cranks up the El Nino signal it goes cool South. +PNA would be expected if the PDO gets lined up - still TBD. Then yes the -NAO can happen with forcing downrange and poleward of the Tropics. That's all review for many readers, but with noting. My thinking is that the modeling is not yet coded for such a warm Nino. I figure we flood the atmosphere with warmth across the board. Sadly if the South does get BN temps it might be cloudy crappy days with meh nights. Figure we'll get a few cold weeks, but most of summer I'm thinking blowtorch from El Nino Godzilla.

Still had high clouds before Midnight. I did not wake up before dawn to check again. Normally I would check at that 3am pee break but I never woke up. I mention times after Midnight because it is our most favorable angle. At 3am the dark side of the Earth is speeding forward. Early evening we face backward. The later times forward face theoretically makes more meteors visible. However the biggest, brightest, longest fireball in my life was mid-evening and not during any advertised meteor shower. Then I saw the total eclipse video from Spain. I'm surprised how impactful it was that late in the day and low in the sky. Wish I'd been there. We are waiting for 2027, Europe and North Africa's eclipse of the century. Some great climo but poor geopolitical risks. Yesterday would have worked really well anywhere in Spain. So, I'll be eclipse neurotic for the next almost 12 months.

I could see that in Denver or Cheyenne in Sept. Meanwhile for Tennessee all I see through next week is teaser fronts on MCS outflow, quickly retreating north to the Ohio River or farther. If the ECMWF is right we get a Tuesday tease next week. Then, back to the blast furnace!

yeah @Weatheriscool our lawn has been remarkably green since it started raining again in late July. 'Twas getting pretty brown before July 4. Quite the reverse of most summers. We'll see how long it lasts, ha!

Yes it only takes one storm to make a season in the South. Perfect overrunning, a bowling ball, or an actual open wave bomb. Yeah, the latter seems less likely every year, but the other two still happen. Then it depends on location. 2025 was a rare, great winter for Chattanooga. January featured back-to-back snows including one that way overachieved by not going to ice sooner. Rest of the forum seemed unimpressed by their event(s). But yeah, my main forecast is warm and rainy with occasional severe weather. Long time readers are used to my severe saber rattling.

Maybe @KakashiHatake2000. Their afternoon text mentions conditional instability. Might come south a wee bit if the temp fcst gets warmer, but the turning is better north. I also infer they thought about 5% up there in Kentucky or IN/OH near the TP, but held off. Probably a Day 1 call this time of year. Things are not synoptically evident Day 2 in meso-scale season. If time were not an issue, Dayton OH would be a lovely starting point.

That's go to Crossville and ask questions later. Official does not get down there, but it's only 90 minutes for me to get up there. If the line really does re-develop east of Nashville, that's prime for it to reach the Plateau as it's maturing. That part of Kentucky is doable too, but farther to drive. Doable is relative in the South - some breaks vs straight forest and mountains.

El Nino and -PDO sounds like a recipe for a warm active southern stream and lots of severe weather! My sabre rattling aside that '23-24 year was a bit unusual. Usually the PDO gets in line with Nino. You'd think a super nino would drive the bus. Still several months for it to resolve. Then yea see what the QBO is trending in fall. As I've written before I care a lot more about the slope/trend than the value.