nrgjeff
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Yeah if winter is going to be warm, might as well tee up a severe wx buffet line! The monthly charts are hideous for snow. SER might be overdone. Surface cold might do better than progged. However the precip charts (AN Mid South) scream cutters.. and severe! for Snow I prefer AN precip to my south (the rain). low Liquid content snow should be near normal north of the rain. Even BN qpf can work for snow in colder regimes. AN qpf is almost always rain. Should I move that last paragraph to winter topic? Nah, because I don't think it'll actually be that bad. North Pac is warm. Here I'm just jawboning severe.
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Looks hot the next two weeks through maybe Wed. Sept. 25 but mercifully humidity should be low to moderate. Only drawback with low RH is the drought will get worse in the Mid-South and western half of our region. Drought might even spread east. Not as hot east, but still dry. -GLAAM favors the warm pattern. While the ECMWF weekly is warm forever (what's new?) the CFS drops a Great Lakes trough at the end of the month, somewhat helped by a slight +PNA. Even with the GLAAM situation even a slightly +PNA can allow the said trough. CFS makes sense to get our region's temps back to normal. Euro weekly has a similar 500 mb pattern with a Midwest trough. It's west of the CFS trough axis; so, the Euro keeps the Southeast warm. Gonna have to disagree though. With normal heights, surface cool fronts should make it. Sure it'll be a day later than progged, but FROPA will happen. Bottom line: I have to go with the CFS milder late Sept. Hard spot: I figure drought could expand east more than CPC shows. We'll see. Little NW flow surprises like today might mitigate such a thing.
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See if we can tee up some more super structures today.. or just be an after thought relative to Thursday. I always like the Upper Plateau. Just a bit more upper level wind support per SPC text, plus the topography.
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Nice evenings and mornings make warm afternoons in the 80s easy going this week. Except Friday could hit 90 which will feel hot. Prefrontal warming strikes before a cool weekend. Looking out a week the next warm up is weaker, as one would expect deeper into September. Great Lakes trough will take a couple short-waves to cool down our region. See Friday prefrontal heat. Later next week after the Great Lakes mean trough fills, 500 mb heights should remain at or below normal in the Southeast. Midwest warmth should get into the Mid-South at times but it should be brief.
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2010-2011 winter had the White Christmas in Chattanooga, storybook with 3-4 inches of snow that morning. Then we got hammered 8-10 inches mid-January. I think one other true accumulating snow happened (Dec 13 or 14). Then we got a few little dustings. IIRC it was a good year from the Mid-South to the Great Valley.
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I'm split on that. Do we need crazy cold source regions? Probably for sustained retro cold. Doubtful for quick intense shots like we get. Long as the AO flips cold will get delivered somewhere in the mid-latitudes. Other teleconnections help forecast exactly where, but as we've discussed it gets nebulous in the last decade or two. One thing to note is a marine heat wave across much of the northern Pacific Ocean. Parts of the Atlantic are similar. Mercifully it's not all in the Tropical Atlantic. Some hypothesize, and after some success we could say theorize, warmer oceans up north create conditions favorable for blocking. I'm talking general blocking -AO not necessarily cold air destination. So while warm oceans could promote a mild fall, warm SSTs could also set up some winter blocking. Current situation is an example of how it can be warmer than normal in Western Canada, while the Southeast is cool. Well that's an old teleconnection too, but for sustained cold the source does need to reload.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
nrgjeff replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The flow Wednesday night into the weekend, and the system Thursday, would be really great in the winter, esp after the Sunday then Tuesday fronts to put cool air in place. Well somebody had to say it. I have done my duty! -
Disrespectful is a good way to describe foul weather. I'll have to remember that! Yeah the worst heat should break for the season after today (Wednesday). Some folks I-40 north are already in the new airmass. Still cookin' south of the front! As usual I forecast this first CF to be weaker than progged. NAM 2m is too cool. MOS and NWS are on that with average highs (aggregate region) 88-90 through Sunday. Some will enjoy 80s esp up on the Plateau and near Kentucky. The rest of us will have to wait for front #2. Clark she's a beaut! -Cousin Eddy First front is mostly low levels behind Erin with only modest Td improvement. Second front for Monday has true upper air support with trough over GL even OV. That'll deliver for our Tenn Valley including scouring some dews. Then the trough pattern seems to hold for a week to 10 days from Monday. Looks like it might warm up again after Labor Day but we're talking around 90 with lower humidity and ever lower sun angle. That'd doable.
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Fortunately we all got home before all the flash flooding in Hamilton County. Usual trouble spots got bad, and few new problem areas showed up. So far it's the second highest daily rainfall at KCHA. First was around Labor Day 2011 but that was over a longer period all day. Today was pretty much all in a few hours. Others in the Chattanooga area and also Bradley County, please check in when you have a chance. Today was intense.
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Eastern Valley has more chances to get rain especially Tuesday. Not everyone got it the past 7 days but more chances are coming. I'm happy the Eastern Valley heat got pushed back a few more days. With any amount of luck the heat this weekend, book-ended by similar weekdays, could be the last of the worst of summer. Depending on how any tropical cyclone behaves the heat ridge could either be augmented or chipped at. Either way prolly a few hot days here. Toward the end of August we might be able to trim dewpoints even temps creep back up. Late August fronts don't help temps much past 1-2 days* but they and chip away at dews. Either way the sun angle gets noticaby lower which takes the edge off midday too. Late August sun angle is the same as mid-April. LOL the temps part! *Apparently early August fronts set record low maxes though.
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I'm back after recovering from end of summer family trip and beginning of school. @Carvers Gapmy delayed response to the ECMWF monthlies pretty much sums up my enthusiasm. SSTs could help blocking, but I can't beliee it. Plus we could run into meh cold in the source regions. Clusters each month are about 50/50 with a warm cluster of course each month. I figure one of those months could come in colder than normal. Feels like either Dec or Feb. January thaw seems popular recent years. In this case it's flat ridgy under the Midwest cold. Too early for a real forecast so I like what @*Flash* posted. Sorry Dallas Cowboys fans! Texas was the first thing I really noticed. Midwest and Plains are funny too.
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Lightning was impressive both times here in Chattanooga. Today it was vivid enough to be noticeable during daylight along with crashing thunder. Wednesday night was the more traditional summer evening light show and (mostly) rolling thunder. We had one crash boom last night too that made the normally oblivious cat jump!
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Of course we have to pay our dues before that front the first of August. As the hot ridge compresses (Midwest to South) the heat will crank up all over the Valley. This week was Mid-South focused; next week will get all the way east - and probably more intense everywhere. I figure we will enjoy that break the first of August. Even normal temps will feel refreshing esp. with lower dews. I suspect we're not done with heat though. Usually takes multiple pushes to break the pattern. That said next week should be the peak of summer. Slight above later in August is my feel. Nothing horrible, but the typical slow transition to football weather. Tropical CAVEATs: East Coast phase could help a milder pattern settle in. Western Gulf landfall would just amp up the ridge and add humidity (pulling dews inland) in Aug.
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John I'm sorry for your loss. Cancer took both my parents. Thinking of you and all of your family. This community also misses your dad. Yeah he was solid on the weather side and insightful in politics. I remember great weather discussions for the Southeast though I'm Tennessee Valley.
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Same story. Storms just kept coming Monday. Turning over the atmo didn't matter. Storms seemed to redevelop on a boundary. Well the extended forecast calls for more heat, humidity, and suffering. The mild start to summer was nice, but it's ancient history now. First thought the July heat might break for August. Looks more like low key heat continues after the true heat wave breaks. Wake me up in September. Prolly still be hot, but likely less humid, and definitely a lower sun angle. Football too.
