nrgjeff

Ope! Two more posts came in while I was deliberating. RAP looks juicier. Otherwise my sports malaise creeps into weather... Thursday night looks similar to Monday night. Little bit of ice (trace) northwest of I-40 in the Mid-South. Light snow north of that, but probably less for northern Kentucky. Any light mix or ice area will get slick roads. Not enough QPF to mess with trees and power lines. Let's keep those themes all winter! Wake me up with Chattanooga can get below 40 deg during precip. January? Ah hell, let me get back into the severe thread and chew on Jag's post. That's what I'm talkin' about! Chatty rants aside, the cold pattern seems to want to stick around longer than initially forecast. While the MJO wants to complicate things, colder teleconnections are forecast to win out (on models). Even as the pattern relaxes (only somewhat) day 11-15 a possible reload awaits the weekend of Dec. 19 or going into the week of Dec. 22 which we'll call the 16-20 day. I'll throw in some gems from the Physical Science Lab. Keep that comin'

Good grief both Tennessee and Kansas lost last night. Tennessee almost caught 'Cuse multiple times - like stranding baserunners. Kansas simply had a blown save - arguably the most frustrating thing in all of sports. Indeed, the most frustrating thing in all of meteorology is cold air in place and the system goes south. Truly PUKE inducing!

Thank you @Carvers Gap and @John1122 I thoroughly enjoyed the game because I really like Tennessee too. Unfortunately only one can win. Frankly we should have been the championship game. Gonzaga? Then Michigan is just annoying! Kansas lost to Duke in Chicago and UNC there. KU may have righted the ship now. Tennessee looks good. They probably got tired 3rd day in a row with Houston in the mix too. I like Tennessee in the SEC! Happy Thanksgiving y'all!

Deterministic models are pure chaos. Ensembles are flopping around but one can at least find some reasoning for that. After the Thanking cold a brief warmer episode is likely because of a little -PNA. However the Alaska ridge persists, so warmth probably won't. In fact by day 15 the EPS and somewhat GEFS hint at cross polar flow. Some support for return to cold mid-December, and perhaps lasting, comes from a retrograding Rossby wave. Since that's a 500mb feature we don't need to debate the SSW. Strato heights are well AN and want to reflect at 500mb. While I don't believe SSW wrecks cold patterns, it doesn't always favor North America. SSW signal is best for Eurasia. Things like the Rossby wave can turn odds for North America. The weekly charts may be picking up on all this. They go with the warmer week before settling into a colder regime with less back and forth. We'll see. Stuff changes every day. Who knows if all the background forecasts verify? At least the results make some sense this afternoon.

Glad 2005-06 came up. December got nutty cold. Snow blanketed much of the country. Then it got warm. December cold broke around Christmas in KCMO, which was a little disappointing. January thaw was torch. For this year, operational models are of course all over the place. Thanksgiving weekend cold front CF may actually be faster on Thanksgiving rather than the weekend. Then a few milder days are forecast before the next CF. Weekly products the CFS gets cold established for the first week of Dec, fading during the second week of Dec. The ECMWF weekly doesn't seem to acknowledge the Thanksgiving weekend CF but starts the cold west to east trek the first weekend of Dec. Putting it all together, I think the first 1-2 fronts could be brief cold intrusions. Thanksgiving weekend and then middle of the first week or weekend of December. ECMWF weekly struggles to discern the fronts that week. CFS may lock in cold a week early. Perhaps after a couple fronts chip away at the warm pattern, by December 10 give or take a couple weeks can average truly below normal temps. See if we could get that through Christmas for a third week. Siberia continues to set the table.. for after we work through the North America warm week to 10 days. Temperature anomalies, blue is cold Sfc Press anomalies, red is higher

Most ensembles have cold in here by the weekend after Thanksgiving. EPS is slowest end of that weekend. Some AI versions have it by Black Friday. Weekly products have the cold pattern lasting 2-3 weeks now, a marked change from the quick hit shown last week. Strato situation is trying to reflect at 500 mb which is also a cold signal. MJO actually comes around about Dec 1st, but will then line up with other signals for cold. Check of the Physical Science Lab PSL Map Room: Global Circulation (Quick Menu): NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory shows the table being set after we get past the warm North America (here late week, early next week). True Arctic surface press is quite high. Part of Siberia is getting cold north of the Kazakhstan warmth. Eventually we'll look for higher pressure into Siberia from the Arctic, and for it to get into more of Alaska. Note a small cold patch is already in western AK. 7-day surface press anomaly red is high 7-day temp anomaly blue is cold

The SER can probably arrange that. I should be careful about what I joke. Edit: latest ensembles are slower. Otherwise a bird in the hand sooner is always nice. If we get a Jan. thaw maybe February gives a winter encore. Kind of the Carvers Cossgrove hybrid winter. While La Nina is notorious for west first SER, the hemispheric pattern variability should deliver bouts of cold to the Southeast too.

Just today the CFS and GEFS weeklies join the colder forecast for December. ECMWF weekly had been consistent which added confidence even before others joined the chorus. Agree it will take about a week (2nd or 3rd front) to chip away at the SER that builds next week through early Thanksgiving week. CFS and extrapolating mid-range ensembles points to right after Thanksgiving. Same for some AI stuff. GEFS and ECMWF weeklies are slower more like 1 Dec. While the MJO promotes the slower timing, a Strato warming event could promote the faster timing. SSW is normally the slower process but it's already in progress. MJO has to tee up the warmer phases first. Physical Science Lab Asia pressure and temps has not really set up yet, no surprise with the MJO. North America has a ways to go. Eastern Siberia shows very early signs. Rest of Russia and China no signal (bearish or bullish) so overall those charts are not set up yet. PS @Carvers Gapyou'd prolly love this site given your post about pressure / temps on the winter spec. Maps won't load for me, so maybe you're already looking there. PSL Map Room: Global Circulation (Quick Menu): NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

Here is my take from Tuesday night. Northern Lights display for Southern Veterans! Then some fall foliage highlights from Ocoee a couple weeks ago.. And downtown Chattanooga showing off last week. Finally vertical bonus photos. Quite a colorful fall!

Maybe so. Getting close to a thread worthy event maybe short-term forecast and obs combo thread. Might not need two for this one though. Thank you for all the ground truth! Fun to see how everyone is doing and I find it useful for work too. Indeed another short wave is coming in behind for this afternoon. Bubbly satellite loops show it coming out of Kentucky. Plateau and Mountains should continue going. Maybe some Great Valley North. I don't expect much in Chatty. Still I'm happy for y'all and will enjoy it vicariously.

Strato is active but might struggle to reflect to the 500 mb for a bit longer. For now we can enjoy the cold snap early next week. Even if it does get mild again, my gut says more cold beginning of Dec. Snow cover is increasing again on the Rutgers chart after a pause. Physical Sciences Lab checks out for Siberia, China, Alaska pressure and temps. Nothing screams like what I shared a couple weeks ago, but it's leaning the right (cool / cold) direction. At least I don't discern warm torchy signals there. PSL Map Room: Global Circulation (Quick Menu): NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory charts update despite the red banner top. Prolly automated.

Kansas at North Carolina tonight. Football season pauses until Saturday. This Friday night lights, we shoot hoops!

Here we go. NexLab updates before SPC. Free for All Friday!

Apparently the Physical Science Lab is updating charts. Maybe they are automated. Red banner (no updates) might refer to articles and the like. Snow cover (not shown, see Rutgers) in Siberia and East Asia is running above normal as noted in previous posts this thread. Mongolia snow is building. If it was stormy low pressure that would not be particularly bullish. However - good for snow fans - Siberia surface pressure is way up (Chart is below). Press is lower in far eastern Russia into the Aleutians; however, that's an overall strong high press signature for Siberia. Temps (not shown) are below normal Mongolia to Manchuria and normal up in the Siberian high (also cold). It is a good signature for the snow cover too. If one wants a cold North America later, one wants Siberia high press (not stormy) and colder temps into China (not locked north). SSTs are already well covered earlier in this topic / thread. I still favor a slightly mild winter for our Region from the Mid-South to the Valley, but that's colder than recent years. Gulf Coast warmth (La Nina) should spread up here occasionally. Colder Midwest air could / should get in here a few times, esp if the above background state holds.

Two to three weeks, maybe more, may average cooler than normal now. Models are pretty consistent. Appears that some western North America ridging is somewhat anchored by a trough in far eastern Siberia and the western Aleutians. Related to the East Asia pattern, Siberia and Mongolia snow is running at/above normal per Rutgers snow map. Unfortunately, my observed / historical pressure anomaly charts for the last 7 and 30 days is not updating with the gov shut-down. NOAA Physical Sciences Lab is not immediate forecasts like most NWS sites that update. Without recent history pressure I can't put the snow cover into context. Hence, I post in the fall thread rather than winter. SST discussion in the winter thread is good though. EDIT: Charts do update on the site above. Winter thread time! In night sky news I saw Comet Lemmon Wednesday pretty clearly through binoculars. Could not make it to darker sky Tuesday when it was closest to Earth, but another observer said Wednesday was just as good. First try Sun/Mon was inconclusive. Anyway tonight Thursday may be the last chance before greater cloud coverage and / or moon.