nrgjeff

WBIR viewer Rutledge, Tenn. I believe this morning. While it has a scuddy look, I lean TOR. It's all by itself. I infer inflow from our right. It's in the correct part of the storm base. Quick note about Southern Tenn. Outflow has clearly detached from the warm front. RRFS picks up on southern Tennessee storms later.

Before 11am @John1122 verifies. Photo Greg Williams a HAM / spotter in Crosville. May 8 Anywhere else I'd question it. On the Plateau, that's probably what it looks like.

Warm front is going to light up, and perhaps with supercells. It will start the day draped straight across Tennessee. You want daytime in the east? ECMWF and a couple high-res hang it up in Tennessee, which would be bad news. Most everything else lifts it into Kentucky before it goes berserk. Then of course overnight Wednesday night a huge red bow squall line is forecast to rake the state. Two rounds. We wouldn't do it any differently in the South!

Yeah I agree with Andy on Indiana above. Illinois boundary right now enjoys more instability. However Indiana convergence zone will have a ton of SRH. Plus it'll destabilize too. I have always preferred the eastern of two surface troughs when chasing east of the Mississippi River. Midwest, Mid-South, Deep South. Then more upper level support is over Indiana. Need to catch the right entrance/rear of the upper jet, which is somewhat departing Illinois. Now there's a Plains short-wave coming out, but that is the overnight stuff. Daytime I think Indiana. LLJ also hangs in better Indiana vs Illinois.

The 2% on Monday verified in Tennessee, but most of the tweets are scrubbed. Also possible she blocked me for political reasons. Layperson not media. Today we have 0% strong in North Bama. Very subtle boundary is trying to lift north. Outflow from Mid-South is oriented NE to SW; and, they may intersect later. However the LLJ is modest to meager. CAMs fire it, but it could just be blobs. SPC coveres farther north. Wednesday is the classic outflow boundary day. Models verbatim have it lifting into Kentucky, which looks reasonable with strong enough WAA. If greater precip coverage in the morning, the boundary could get stuck in Tenn. Right now only the Euro has that.

Yes I agree with Tuesday 10% centered around Dayton, straddles IN/OH border. From what I recall driving to Detroit, that's quite chasable territory. LLJ is forecast to be roaring into the vicinity. Right Rear/Entrance of jet streak should promote lift. The morning stuff is going to be on the Left Front/Exit. Right entrance is sometimes fickle, but an excellent boundary will sit underneath it. Tuesday looks like a classic outflow re-generation day. Then on Wednesday it could be anywhere with the rain enhanced boundary sinking south. Unfortunately, it looks like it could be Kentucky which isn't great chase terrain. Though some open ag spots are available. Wednesday could also go berserk the northern half of the Mid-South MO/IL, but that's touch and go terrain. I'm not sure how one would position after Tuesday. Probably depends on how Tuesday goes, to position for Wednesday.

I'm gonna need that crap to stay north of the Ohio River. Mid-South will probably invade Tennessee Wednesday evening with straight line winds though. So long as the WF or rain enhanced outflow boundary does not get into Tennessee - stays Ohio River Valley - (most of) the tornadoes should stay up there too. No reason to hype the Tennessee Valley. It's actually still peak season, early May is just more late April; however, the synoptics situation favors the Ohio River Valley. Mid-South is kind of on the borderline. Again augmented boundaries could still play a role, but the synoptic situation overall is north.

Tuesday looks like the convectively enhanced outflow boundary gets down toward southern Illinois. It could stay farther north in Indiana or lift north there with greater LLJ help. At any rate 500 mb flow will be robust and with a shortwave coming around 00Z after the morning one departs. It'll probably convect late afternoon. Boundary intersection between lifting outflow and synoptic front or pre-frontal trough will be the area of interest. CAPE lurks ready to recover north with the said boundary intersection. Wednesday now looks like it may have the greater kinematics. Still robust 500 mph flow, with greater LLJ. The more true short-wave at 500 mb should promote a surface low response. Key is for the strength of the system to keep boundaries north of the Ohio River. North of I-64 would be preferred. Wednesday severe wx could stretch all the way from Texas to Ohio. I feel like we were just talking about this. Oh yeah the eclipse! Anyway Wednesday will probably be most interesting just east of the surface low. Placement is TBD after prior convection.

I think Tuesday could be a classic Illinois Indiana day. Impressive jet stream punches in aloft. LLJ goes Plains nuts over in the Midwest. And that warm sector CAPE! Wednesday looks pretty good too. Maybe the SPC thinks boundaries are going to push the warm sector back into the Mid South. I'd much prefer things stay up in IL/IN/OH and they may if a major MCC doesn't wash out everything Tuesday night. Thursday could actually end up in the Ohio Valley or Tennessee Valley, neither of which is acceptable chase territory, though the latter is close to home. If Tue/Wed satisfy, I won't care about Thursday terrain. Oh yeah I can't make it to the Plains for Monday, so figure I'll post here in Lakes Ohio Valley.

I expect parts of the Mid-South and Midwest to join the SPC Day 4-8 day outlook in the next day or two; so, look Friday or Saturday. It's wild how the Great Plains could get whacked Monday, then get quiet. Then the trough slows down to gradually work through the Mid-South and Midwest (IL/IN/OH). Each day a wave slides around the base and ejects out. LLJ responds. Kentucky could get clipped next week. Feels late in the season but it's not. Early May is still the heart of the season. Most of those states peak in May too.

It's El Nino with La Nina characteristics. Great Plains too.

Yeah transition into La Nina of course gets rolling first here in SER land. I'll see y'all when football starts.

Forget trade wars and tariffs. USA and China want a tornado war. Well, it's better than a military war! Indeed severe season has made the shift out to the Plains. If you are weather anxious here in the South, you can start to relax. Yeah, we have more of the season to go, but the wedge outbreak season is pretty much over in the South. Now we can still get plenty of mesoscale setups, and I intend to find them. I might have used up my kitchen capital on the eclipse, so a Plains trip is questionable this year.

I have no dog in the hunt, because my back-up is already on vacation not related to weather. I'm not chasing, but this should be a quality sequence. Thursday the morning rain eastern KS will kick out an OFB that should stay separate (south of) the WF. It's my preferred chasing scenario OFB DL intersection. No concerns upper levels. Thursday looks lit! Friday is farther east. I'd chase outside of the KC metro because I know the area. It is not jungle outside the city. Could be a wide area though. Depends on Thursday night. Saturday the true Plains relaods. Upper levels have a kink or two. However moisture will be deeper than on Thursday. Boundaries will be around. Saturday could be a day. Sunday is kind of Friday echo, but that far out we really don't know much after 3 days of convection. At any rate this looks like a true Plains sequence. Y'all at some point you need to decide to travel to the Plains. Waiting for the perfect set-up = never going.

Virtual starting point: Ottumwa, IA. Virtual starting area is from Oskaloosa IA to Kirksville MO. I'm not out there this week.Ottumwa is the north side hedge (2/3 of the way) for lunch and data. Easier to adjust south than north, esp fast storm motion. Goal is to position for either the warm front WF or outflow boundary OFB. Normally we like OFB, but Iowa loves to WF. Plus they may become one diffuse boundary with all the mixing and wind today.Cell northeast of KC (at 11am Central) looks like an OFB work but it's getting close to the WF. Said cell(s) will likely maintain or create outflow. I would position closer to the WF in case that's it. No way to catch up from the south; so, be north at first. If the OFB ends up being it, adjusting south or just waiting for it would be relatively easy. Either way a classic dry line DL is coming out of Kansas. It's not just a Pacific front; it's warm and dry behind it. Moisture ahead is deeper than yesterday. Really both WF and OFB, plus other minor boundaries, could deliver at their intersections with the DL.If the WF and OFB surge north the target might have to shift more into Iowa. However, if an outflow can anchor then northern Missouri is in play. Also, I know I'd chase east from the starting points above. IIRC all that terrain is OK. It's not Kansas, but it's not the Ozarks or eastern Oklahoma either. Good luck and be safe!