nrgjeff

For Saturday the SPC highlights the coastal boundary moving north. Should be all kinds of shear there, especially as warmer air moves onshore. I'm still watching for later Saturday farther inland across Alabama. If a hybrid system can get an open quasi warm sector going, I could imagine some north-south bands of low toppers too. Would need the rain shield to scoot away and destabilization. Otherwise, the coastal front would be the focus. My zone is TBD for a couple days still. Need a named storm to model. For now, from the SPC for Sat... At this time, it appears Sat/D5 is the most likely time for the more substantial low-level warming to occur, with tropical yet sufficiently unstable profiles. Of particular note is how the developing shortwave trough over TX interacts with the tropical low. Some models indicate 40-45 kt midlevel winds, which would complement the strong low-level shear and favor low-topped supercells with tornado potential. The greatest threat area should be along the coastal counties given expected poor low-level lapse rates farther inland. Initial elevated convection may give way to an east-west zone of supercells as the coastal baroclinic zone moves inland. Some additional threat into Sun/D6 may exist as well.

Drought monitor shows the flash drought which resulted from that crappy Sept. Oh it just keeps getting better! ECMWF has a cool bias. Count on warmer verification than the weeklies show. Much warmer than the CFS. This package I favor the lowly GEFS weeklies - which are warm. EC is clearly off track below. After 10 days or so of +PNA (cooler SE) the out of phase PDO is gonna catch up. I expect many busts this winter as temps verify warmer than 6-15 day forecasts. Super Nino is just going to flood the Atmo warm. Even if it's warm out West it'll be difficult to cool off the Southeast with neutral to slightly BN heights.

Time to get this thread going again. I still think it'll be a super mild winter. While the CFS and some AI stuff keeps going cold, I believe it's feedback on SUPER Nino. They are missing the flood of warmth in the ATMO. ECMWF trended warmer. Finally got a few minutes to look at precip. Obviously the last several weeks were nuts at work with a 100-year outlier extended heat-wave. February precip chart is my dream. Oh wait! You think I need my head examined for cheering BN precip? Reembmer snow holds much less liquid than rain. We got AN rain to our southeast with BN right over Tenn. I infer southern track storm systems. I infer snow in Feb. Temps are only normal, but that's enough with variability in Feb. 500 mb (not shown) screams southern track too. ECMWF February precip, Sept. 5 forecast

More and more I think the rate of change can be as important or moreso than the index value itself. Definitely true with the QBO. Let's look at this WSJ chart for El Nino. Slope is greater than the other events of record. Calculus is back like the monster in the TV! I expect something new this El Nino.. er uh, well more crazy that's already in progress.

This will be a good thread for things we can see from our mid-latitude region. For the Northern Lights, New England usually has a good discussion. For here, let this be the place for flybys, astronomical events, the night sky, photography, and the occasional comet. Now there is some guess-casting, ha!

I imagine seasonal models will start trending warmer. Right now we are before that infamous Halloween predictability barrier. Now models (as programmed) are amping up Nino response because Nino is on fire. What's next? Warmer forecasts! ATMO has not followed teleconnections for years. First, the oceans are not absorbing heat. Marine heat waves are almost global. See Climate forum for more. Also the PDO remains out of whack. If we have warm Nino and -PDO it'll relentlessly flood the Lower 48 with mild air. My forecast remains a top 10 warm winter. Warmest winter in recorded history is possible.

Incredible instability will be available. Unfortunately 15% is probably a good forecast. I was hoping for 30% wind, mainly for QPF. No turning with height, so those blobs are just beefy wind producers. No organized line. Derecho checklist is so far from being met that I'd say we meet the anti-derecho checklist. Simply nothing interesting in weather right now. When's the next comet or eclipse? We need some Northern Lights!

I expect the hottest September on record. More mid-90s next week is just about enough to seal it - especially weighted toward AC use. But let's talk about simple temperatures. A brief mid-month front may give way to yet more SER activity. We can only hope it retrogrades a bit. Otherwise - hottest September in recorded history!

Wake me up on Halloween! I have no optimism about winter based on any hot cold flip analog. I'd like to narrow it down to strong+ El Nino years. My thinking is the Atmo is just flooded with warm air. That PDO out of phase only adds it. Probably not SER all winter; that's Nina. Absurdly mild source regions +ABNA and a stormy STJ seem likely. We got a shot at the warmest winter in recorded history. I expect ZERO snow in Chatty, probably not even a trace.

I'm wall to wall blowtorch. Deep South severe all winter. Early season start to severe Mid-South. Of course the eastern Valley will find a way to be cool. Great for storm anxious, but just one more thing about which I will vent!

Unfortunately I believe that Carvers is right. I know we've had some warm Septembers, but this is effin' ludicrous! I can handle a couple ridiculous weeks, but the whole month looks ludicrous. And this week is effin' plaid! (Spaceballs)

Yeah the Northern Hemisphere is locked in with this wave count. SER today, SER tomorrow.. well y'all know the rest.

Lunar eclipse turned out really well Thursday night with peak just after 11pm Central and just after Midnight Friday Eastern Time. High clouds had no impact. Figured as much two days early but work obligations prevented me from starting a thread. I laugh about how neurotic I get about even thin clouds for a TSE; but, so chill about a lunar eclipse. Perhaps I need to do more deep breaths before a solar show. Next I propose that a deep lunar eclipse* is as beautiful or even more so than a total lunar eclipse. Get an extended lunar version of the diamond ring phase. Through binoculars I observed 3 stars with the Moon. It really felt other worldly and it was gorgeous! Telescope didn't add much value other than for photography. I feel like lunar eclipses are a naked eye and binoculars event. Here are my photos. Let's share! *** Lunar eclipses are unique in that deep partial is more than good enough. Solar eclipses are all or nothing. Get into totality or forget about it! ***

I am about to rage about the odd ball streaming games. Sports has become an even more crooked hack. Time to go back into the archive. All this Spanish eclipse stuff has me reflecting on 2017 and 2024 in the USA.

Things should heat up soon from MRX to TRI, eventually unzippering through Knox and Chatt. Monday Aug. 17 The SPC bumped up wind to 30% (not shown) but it is still Slight because no hatch. We'll see if 30% verifies. Requires the said multiple bowing segments. Otherwise 15% would do. I suspect any bowing segment would provide some nice photography. Just don't get struck by lightning. This airmass (very deep CAPE) has promoted prolific lightning for a week now.