Jump to content

nrgjeff

Meteorologist
  • Posts

    3,511
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About nrgjeff

Contact Methods

  • AIM
    Twitter @nrgjeff
  • Website URL
    http://www.linkedin.com/in/wjeffhenergy

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KCHA
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Chattanooga, TN
  • Interests
    Storm chasing, Energy weather, Winter storms, hiking and skiing, U. Kansas and Wichita State basketball, Chattanooga FC, Chatt Lookouts, UTC Mocs, FC Wichita, Sporting KC, Royals and Chiefs. Twitter @nrgJeff

Recent Profile Visitors

7,400 profile views
  1. A true Gulf Coast warm front lifted through Mississippi last night. Appears it intersected a couple pre-trough convergence lines. Due to the deep moisture with a Gulf WF instability remains overnight. Separately In the satellite chart on my Friday post, appears a couple dark lines in central Mississippi make a T. That could have been another subtle boundary intersection, but at the time a little dry air just off the surface kept it in check during the day. The loss of life is tragic. Agree with Matthew that in the South significant tornado events are usually bad news. Back here in Tennessee the lifting outflow boundary (well north of the Gulf boundary) tended to focus straight line winds. However some QLCS tornadoes were reported in North Alabama. Got sideways rain on straight line wind at 3am in Chattanooga.
  2. Outflow boundary OFB re-lifting now through the Mid-South is going to be trouble. Initial line coming into Memphis might not have the moisture yet. Dry pocket aloft Mississippi means the best 850 mb moisture has to sneak up the Delta. It should be there late afternoon, along with the SRH on that outflow boundary. Hopefully for MEM, the OFB is elsewhere later. It is lifting north but could stall or sink with the early afternoon precip. OFB should also snake through Middle Tennessee later this evening. By then storms could be more QCLS than sups. Also have to watch the synoptic warm front if the air between the OFB and WF can warm up. Otherwise it's a big ol' Southern line overnight.
  3. Fountain beat me to it. Not too upset to see the system vanish days 5-6. Note that WPC still has QPF those days. I'd be happy to see the system show up again, without a mega-cut knuckle ball. Carvers STL captures that idea, lol! Never take anything off the table in the Southeast. 12Z Euro update. Nah, I'll tell you what's gonna happen. Spoiled NC whiners will get one on the coast. Is that even worse than the STL cut?
  4. They are in way better shape than me. I can watch college basketball, lol! How about Vanderbilt? Love how the odds makers treat Vandy like an Ivy League school. Yes it's an excellent academic university; but, it's also SEC!
  5. ECMWF can't decide whether to bury that thing or bring it up with no cold air supply. Maybe the 12Z will offer some clarity. GFS/Canadian sure like it! Southeast ski areas would like it. I'm surprised to see Sugar is still making snow. Usually they punt by March 10, but perhaps they hope to benefit from the extended forecast. I did not check other areas, but Sugar generally takes care of their snow best late-season.
  6. Middle Finger is also the NCAA selection committee to Kansas. West? Even after Houston lost. Really? Too lazy to use contingency bracket! So, that puts Kansas in a possible game with UCLA, in Las Vegas. No other 1-seed is so far from home. Midwest would have been KCMO which is basically a home game, but KU deserves it. Well Jax hopefully KCMO will welcome Auburn for some Regional action. Tennesse and Kentucky will have to travel a bit. Alabama has good locations but not an easy bracket. TA&M 7-seed is the other middle finger. Penn State got hosed there too 10-seed, so really a dual screw job. Both teams are basically playing a 4-seed first round. SMH
  7. Yes @PowellVolz the warm mid-levels ML might have played a role in mitigating storm intensity in East Tenn. ML was even warmer AL/GA, but their surface was much warmer - netting greater CAPE. Then Kentucky got more dynamics and less warm ML, another net bullish outcome despite lower surface Ts. Southeast Tennessee had a little more action. AL/GA boundary that likes to wrap around the southern Apps lifted up into and through Chattanooga. We are lucky* it was not a few degrees warmer. Dews made it in here. *Layperson and Public perspective. Storm chasers might have a different view, haha! However that close to home, I'm with the Public.
  8. Well there is one good thing about the lack of snow in the South. We stopped having heart burn a couple weeks ago. How about some March Madness? Lady Mocs (UT Chatt) are in the Women's Big Dance! Tonight I hope the men join them. Mocs have to win the SoCon Tourney to punch a ticket to the Big Dance. Game is 7p Eastern, 6p Central on ESPN+ but also the Main ESPN!
  9. The above likely happened with non-thunderstorm winds ahead of the line. That area was always the ahead of the line non-thunderstorm winds. More later. This is a good example of the importance of communication. Could I have been more clear? I refer to Nashville Forecasters. Kayman refers to the City of Nashville. While I could have written more clearly, context clues are somewhat evident. Also it's common to refer to NWS offices just by their location. In the end despite parameters, OHX Forecasters and I were more correct than not. There is more to it than parameters. Note the minimum in Middle Tennessee compared to AL/GA. East Tenn is concentrated southeast Tenn. Still the bias east that OHX highlighted in red on the chart had some validity. By late morning it was apparent that the diurnal intensity max was going to be east. Pattern recognition is vital to add value over parameters and models. Moving along to the non-thunderstorm wind. It was impressive. Except for the Mountains, where we had the strong south winds through and below passes ahead of the line of storms/front, most of the strongest winds were behind the line. Once again pattern recognition says behind the line of storms, where the mixing is maximized behind the dry line. I never got the ahead of the line wording from some EM briefings (except for Mountains). Yes, it was breezy ahead of the line. However the strongest winds behind the line always seemed self-evident to me. Could be the advantage of Great Plains experience. Friday was unusual for here, but it is somewhat common in the Plains.
  10. Nashville is just a hair east of the 10% hatched, and I agree. Lines up best with daytime heating going into afternoon. Also the Plateau elevation gives it better access to inflow wind. I don't normally share from EM briefings, but it's basically an adjusted 10% which is public on SPC. Please don't re-share though. Chart is just the diurnal / daytime heating timing. One could drag the red line through Chattanooga and even into northwest Georgia. Don't forget Sand Mountain, AL which is another elevated area. Reasoning below. Other considerations for more specific targets include North Georgia boundary (there as usual) and the Gulf moisture boundary lifting through Alabama. Both should get into Tennessee with a dynamic negatively tilted system (promotes lifting boundaries WF OFB or otherwise). Either intersecting with the prefrontal trough PFT is an area of interest. Interesting with temps/dews the PFT is more quasi-dry line DL today. Anything like a DL always piques my interest in the South. On the other hand very fast storm motion might favor the porch chase. Another scenario is a more forced line with fewer sups. Would favor straight line wind, but it can be particularly strong by leveraging the background wind. High Wind Warning things.
  11. Tonight could be dicey in the Mid-South. Ingredients are there as a LLJ interacts with warm front. Mess mode could be a saver overnight. Thursday daylight is mainly an Arkansas (and points southwest) event. However an organized squall line QLCS should slam into the Mid-South late Thursday night. Line survives into Friday morning... Key to Friday is the LLJ hanging around long enough. Some NWP ejects the backed part of it in a hurry, which would still leave a line of thunderstorms and straight line wind. Low and mid-level winds remain strong all day Friday, which would support severe. Tornado question has a lot to do with if the backed portion of the LLJ remains in East Tennessee and North Georgia into Friday afternoon. I'm not sure for what I wish. Chaser on a Friday. Keep family safe any day. My gut says just wind East Tenn. Makes it a moot point.
  12. Don't worry about Ryan Maue. How much of that is a forecast, and how much is his climate argument? He and Hothead are the best Twitter drama - angry and oppose each other. I like both their severe wx takes better. Maybe I just have severe wx on the brain! Stratosphere doubled down over the last few days. March is likely going to average cooler than normal. Just need the -PNA to relax for the Southeast, which it's forecast to do so. Arctic gets blocky. Could March observed actually be cooler than February observed? Not likely, but it has happened before. I'm not a fan of the Strato derailing severe; however, another shot at Southeast skiing (NC/WV) would be nice. Also the pattern might not wreck the Deep South toward April. In fact it could extend South season at the expense of the Plains.
  13. Yes if those storms inflow does not get disrupted by central Alabama activity, they are near the other lifting boundary I wrote of at about now near the River. Prefrontal trough is also there near Corinth MS into Tenn, ahead of the main front. It's a boundary intersection. Also possible the north (Tenn Miss) and south (cental Bama) coexist with the SSW LLJ vs one from the SSE. Again central Bama has the intersection of pre-trough convergence and Gulf front/OFB.
  14. Tennessee was going to hang on. Pain of two buzzers makes strong motivation. Plus yeah, #1 on the road is a recipe for oof! Kansas fans know that well, haha! So we have a hot race setting up in the SEC. They talk A&M and Bama, but we have enough games left for Tennessee to be in the mix. Big 12 is similar. Kansas got some help when Texas lost. We still need to gain a game.
  15. Radar loop @Holston_River_Rambler shared on the previous page still has validity. Some other CAMs have shown it off and on. Central Alabama! Gulf front was reinforced last night by outflow OFB from showers yesterday. It is lifting northward in Alabama. While some sort of east-west boundary made it to northwest Alabama, differential heating/dews is evident central Alabama. Prefrontal convergence is also ahead of the main front - Alabama Mississippi border as usual. As for the positive tilt, it probably mitigates some risk. Enhanced is right. No MDT today. Also the LLJ is lifting away, which could keep even central Bama in check. However I always watch boundary intersections out ahead of the synoptic ones. All that said, with greater instability, positive tilt can go in the South and Ohio Valley. Plains is more fickle needing neutral due to dewpoint trajectories. Here southwest is still moist flow.
×
×
  • Create New...