nrgjeff

Severe then snow. Book it! (Well mainly I-40 and north)

Let's get it started! Valid Friday. Could be a bit forced, but a touch more instability would raise the ceiling.

Weeks 3-4 chart isn't horrible. If it's an average of some warm days and some cold.. Texas slider on colder days would drop snow at least north of I-40.

Mele Kalikimaka a warm Hawaiian Christmas!

EPS followed the ECMWF warmer but it could be a one-off. AI version still has the back door front chances northeast Tenn. This is all for closer to the New Year. Basically we're looking for a little -NAO. Questions are mainly around whether the Pacific side will help, or just give us the Chinook finger. Of course Carvers I'm always down for mixing weather and basketball. Just like the Vols are back on track, perhaps the ECMWF will get colder again. The warm GEFS does not concern me. PS that Vols game was about the only major vs major this week - a nice treat!

Clippers are hard to get in southern Tenn. Northeast Tenn can benefit from them. Yeah a clipper can happen in Chinook but it'd be tough to get it down here. GaWx is right about the -NAO which could over-achieve northeast only - prolly more like NE USA. GaWx is a good follow even though mainly Southeast. Close enough his posts can be relevant here. Then I have to whine about how I miss clipper action growing up near KC. Felt like two storm tracks work, clipper and Colorado/SW low. Here it's gotta be near perfect with little margin for error. Guess that's what makes snow in the South special!

Mele Kalikimauka it's gonna be a warm Christmas! Wake me up for the first tornado watch.

Bah Humbug! This fits better in severe than general December, where we have one more clipper / frontogenesis north of I-40. Warm themes could lead to severe. Please don't share commercial, but it's not a huge surprise. Everyone can see the weekly models. Straight North American pattern recognition.. forget all the teleconnections TCs.. Pineapple Express ends mild downstream. Current Pac NW firehose is why our Sunday cold front will be history by Tuesday afternoon. But the TCs are going to the dogs too. North Pac ridge going to the Aleutians not eastern Alaska. -PNA +EPO torch regardless of the WPO. Guess Jax and I are going to end up chasing the OV Midwest.

Snow for Hanukkah. Severe for Christmas. Checks out! Getting off my torch horse.. The following teleconnections reveal something like the chart below Days 16-20 which is Christmas and the following weekend. Maybe delay to New Year. Maybe the other way, shallow cold airmass brings a colder verification in Tennessee. Who knows? Cold air supply in Canada MJO tracking back through 7-8 colder phases WPO ride still rex blocking North Pac, if we can boot any Alaska trough Strato is still active / warm Do not share for any commercial purposes. This was posted yesterday afternoon, so I feel like it's OK to share just here.

This system will probably do more than Monday night Tennessee north of I-40. Not everywhere, but more places esp northeast Tenn. More I mean snow. Fortunately the ice looks trace again. Regrettably I don't have time to write more. Good luck up there!

I have Tennessee to win the SEC. I think it's regular season, that's what I intended lol! Lots of tough teams in the SEC. It's gonna be a fun season. However I'm not buying Florida or Kentucky. Tennessee has as good a chance (or better) than anyone. Big 12 Houston will probably live up to the hype. I'm not expecting much from Kansas. No conference title is considered a failed season.

Ope! Two more posts came in while I was deliberating. RAP looks juicier. Otherwise my sports malaise creeps into weather... Thursday night looks similar to Monday night. Little bit of ice (trace) northwest of I-40 in the Mid-South. Light snow north of that, but probably less for northern Kentucky. Any light mix or ice area will get slick roads. Not enough QPF to mess with trees and power lines. Let's keep those themes all winter! Wake me up with Chattanooga can get below 40 deg during precip. January? Ah hell, let me get back into the severe thread and chew on Jag's post. That's what I'm talkin' about! Chatty rants aside, the cold pattern seems to want to stick around longer than initially forecast. While the MJO wants to complicate things, colder teleconnections are forecast to win out (on models). Even as the pattern relaxes (only somewhat) day 11-15 a possible reload awaits the weekend of Dec. 19 or going into the week of Dec. 22 which we'll call the 16-20 day. I'll throw in some gems from the Physical Science Lab. Keep that comin'

Good grief both Tennessee and Kansas lost last night. Tennessee almost caught 'Cuse multiple times - like stranding baserunners. Kansas simply had a blown save - arguably the most frustrating thing in all of sports. Indeed, the most frustrating thing in all of meteorology is cold air in place and the system goes south. Truly PUKE inducing!

Thank you @Carvers Gap and @John1122 I thoroughly enjoyed the game because I really like Tennessee too. Unfortunately only one can win. Frankly we should have been the championship game. Gonzaga? Then Michigan is just annoying! Kansas lost to Duke in Chicago and UNC there. KU may have righted the ship now. Tennessee looks good. They probably got tired 3rd day in a row with Houston in the mix too. I like Tennessee in the SEC! Happy Thanksgiving y'all!

Deterministic models are pure chaos. Ensembles are flopping around but one can at least find some reasoning for that. After the Thanking cold a brief warmer episode is likely because of a little -PNA. However the Alaska ridge persists, so warmth probably won't. In fact by day 15 the EPS and somewhat GEFS hint at cross polar flow. Some support for return to cold mid-December, and perhaps lasting, comes from a retrograding Rossby wave. Since that's a 500mb feature we don't need to debate the SSW. Strato heights are well AN and want to reflect at 500mb. While I don't believe SSW wrecks cold patterns, it doesn't always favor North America. SSW signal is best for Eurasia. Things like the Rossby wave can turn odds for North America. The weekly charts may be picking up on all this. They go with the warmer week before settling into a colder regime with less back and forth. We'll see. Stuff changes every day. Who knows if all the background forecasts verify? At least the results make some sense this afternoon.