nrgjeff

Maybe @KakashiHatake2000. Their afternoon text mentions conditional instability. Might come south a wee bit if the temp fcst gets warmer, but the turning is better north. I also infer they thought about 5% up there in Kentucky or IN/OH near the TP, but held off. Probably a Day 1 call this time of year. Things are not synoptically evident Day 2 in meso-scale season. If time were not an issue, Dayton OH would be a lovely starting point.

That's go to Crossville and ask questions later. Official does not get down there, but it's only 90 minutes for me to get up there. If the line really does re-develop east of Nashville, that's prime for it to reach the Plateau as it's maturing. That part of Kentucky is doable too, but farther to drive. Doable is relative in the South - some breaks vs straight forest and mountains.

El Nino and -PDO sounds like a recipe for a warm active southern stream and lots of severe weather! My sabre rattling aside that '23-24 year was a bit unusual. Usually the PDO gets in line with Nino. You'd think a super nino would drive the bus. Still several months for it to resolve. Then yea see what the QBO is trending in fall. As I've written before I care a lot more about the slope/trend than the value.

Thank you Jed for the reports. Morristown did more before 11am than most of us will do all day! The humidity is just plain gross today. Every summer we have a few of these 75 Td nuthouse days where it never mixes out. Gorgeous! said nobody ever. From MRX which I believe is public and it lines up with SPC 2% (and 5% simultaneous posts) Main concern will be damaging winds up to 60 mph and hail up to 1 inch. A tornado or two is possible My first reaction was surprise. I've been so focused on temperatures, but a look upstairs reveals how we get 2%. Low levels are all veered off; but quite importantly, upper levels are nearly straight north. That's enough turning. Kinematics are only modest but any lone cell could at least put on a structure show. Let's do this!

August could be a good night sky month is the clouds cooperate. Jax got the Perseids above. Fond memories of summer come to mind. Too bad the kids are in school by then now days. Peak is spread out a few days per the video, so maybe catch a dark rural sky on a weekend. Next we have a near total lunar eclipse the night of Aug. 27-28. The 96% lunar is gorgeous with an extended diamond ring phase where one side is lighter. Of course it's not as spectacular as a solar diamond ring, but at the same time I believe lunar eclipses are severely underrated. In contrast to solar, where I'm a Total or Nothing mentality, deep lunar eclipses are arguably as gorgeous as full lunar. Hopefully by then we've also had a couple early season fronts. Might not cool down much, but take the edge off the humidity. Occasionally NW flow on weekly progs would help the cloud issue for astronomy too. Afternoon t-storm cloud debris tends to clear sooner.

Wow you've been hosed @dwagner88 we have done pretty well since June IMBY. I remember you moved though. Post frontal in Chattanooga feels so wonderful! Still dew 70+ but it's cloudy with a north breeze. Staying cloudy post frontal feels great in summer. Could be a preview of El Nino though. For now, focus on the good today. And think of football season!

Strong tropical forcing can disrupt the PV. However if the Arctic is mild there's less cold air to deliver. My thinking is a couple sharp but very brief cold snaps. Otherwise split flow may included a wonky northern stream but steady southern stream.

El Nino and its atmospheric response seem to be locking in and digging in. Of course we'll still have ebb and flow like anytime. For example August may start with a heat burst to the East coast that gets us. Otherwise it's mainly just the Mid South getting baked (early next week again).

It's still got a snow tag. Might as well add winter, lol! Perhaps that's just to make us feel less hot right now. After the severe today they have flash flood risk for Wednesday. Can't argue with a front stalling. What else do they do in July? Got a tropical system far enough away to be no threat, but it still helps pump in moisture. Ambient moisture is enough anyway. These dewpoints are ludicrous even for July!

Kentucky supercells just don't care if the low levels are all veered off. Kentucky gonna Kentucky. I doubt they are as strong after sunset so I agree with SPC. No Crossville special. Just barely out of the 2%. Separately I got a kick out of two NYC anchors who are from the Midwest or South talking about their tornado risk today. Weather people are all the same. Totally forgot their audience is probably terrified. Oh well!

Saturday 2% seems about right. Modest flow is forecast in the upper levels. It's not really backed, but a cooking outflow boundary can take care of the low levels. See how much sun comes out between rounds. Otherwise, summer clusters with some organization and straight wind seems reasonable.

Summer of '57 is a bit before my time but I know KCMO had terrible flooding. Mercifully that's not the case this year. That said, parts of the Midwest have experienced flooding this summer. Summer of '97 was meh heat in the Plains. Y'all have to refresh my memory here. Let's see what the next 2-3 weeks brings out there.

I'll take the other side of that. Kalshi and Poly both have weather I believe. Even saw it on Draft Kings predictions, which could be dangerous lol!

These dewpoints are simply unacceptable at these temps. Qatar World Cup weather is not what we need for ours! The only acceptable place for such temps/dews is chasing Bangladesh and with a proper hodograph. Otherwise it ain't right anywhere! I figure with more thunderstorms the humidity will hold in. Now looks like at least low 90s highs drags into next week. Heat index will stay 100 to 105. Guess after about a week of 110 that'll start to feel normal though. Until then enjoy the long weekend. Happy 250 America!

Not bad for a mid-summer easterly flow MCS. Usually 15% is it for wind. We'll see.