nrgjeff

I notice sometimes northeast TN (Tri cities especially east of MRX) can get going in the early afternoon on what's otherwise a Carolina day. That's mainly later in the season. Carvers may be talking about other examples. All I know is that it frustrates me to no end. I'm not going to chase east initiation, because it creates a long drive home. Euro came in a little hotter Monday. Nothing major but definitely supports a severe weather D6 outlook. Winds from 850 to 500 turn pretty well nearly 60 degrees vs say 45 deg. LLJ is still shown weakening / lifting north. That latter detail and/or any midday rain keeps Monday off the crazy train. Definitely watch it though.

Yeah @jaxjagman Tennessee overnight is one of the highest state proportions in the Union. @Runman292 I was gonna say that's just since I moved here, lol! But Jax is right. Living in East Tennessee reminds me of living in eastern Kansas. Things get rockin' in the western part of the state, sometimes middle. Then the leftovers roll through at night. Occasionally it does start east and we get tornadoes too. Otherwise just like I now drive southwest to North Alabama, I used to drive southwest toward Wichita. Which brings us to Monday. Still looks possible Mid-South. Euro has the ol' east crap-out. Fresh 12Z GFS keeps it going. A lower scenario option is always the classic midday MCS shut-down. We'll see.

With 5 of the next 8 days in outlooks, I was hoping chaser drama on X would cease, and people would concentrate on the forecast. Silly me! What was I thinking? We shall refer to Monday as Monday or whatever day outlook it is (as time passes) and omit the date which shall not be named. Same for that year. Possible another day crops up next week too. That still doesn't make it that year. It makes it spring in the South!

Friday through Sunday looks like a heavy traffic circus in the Plains. Saturday and sometime late Sunday looks like left-overs from the Friday and Saturday Plains come through the Valley. Should be just showers, not severe, as upper energy and LLJ all eject north and/or weaken this way. Monday could be more interesting, especially if the GFS is closer to the truth. Morning wave will create complications with the instability forecast. However by Monday evening the LLJ is forecast to recover over the South with a back wave. That'd be fireworks. ECMWF is less convincing with the second wave but does have some LLJ recovery. Both have adequate speed shear and turning. Questions remain at the surface and also if the second wave is real or trash. SPC has Day 7 into the South for Monday. Even with all my concerns, late April temps often find a way to recover. (I also recall a couple times the Georgia cool wedge oozed west and cut off even Alabama). They are prudent to outlook Monday just in case.

Yeah we got rain last two fronts, which is some encouragement. QPF came in under, not a surprise in drought - but at least it's raining. See if we can accomplish more this weekend into next week. Even poorly timed waves (see my severe rant) can bring rain. Seems like a decent bet. Then we'll see how long we can milk the southern jet stream next week. Could it be a drought breaker? Could it just add humidity before the SER gets on steroids? I don't believe the CFS or Euro weeklies. Check back in June!

We're not doing watches and warnings. Season's canceled. That's not commentary on the system. That's angry storm chaser venting. This weekend into early next week I would bet a stack of chips on poorly timed waves. Well, that's good for the storm anxious. Note it's a week out. I'm being a pessimist more than a scientist today.

Most of that QPF comes in the 11-15 day period, which is of course the least accurate. I've seen so many CPC 8-14 day heavy rain outlooks bust. True they are mostly slight risk, which don't even make the composite chart, but the SER just won't break.

Severe season in the South is captured in the classic John Candy Vacation quip. Sorry folks park's closed. Cannot find the GIF on any source. Must be licensing BS. Anyway the cancellation is good news for those with storm anxiety. CFS wants to get into more active phases, but the EC and GEFS weeklies don't seem interested. We'll see.

Two years ago we were all reflecting on the second total solar eclipse in seven years. Now I look up and see boring. Only 19 more years until the next big total solar eclipse in the South. August 2045 will offer six minutes of amazing!

Rain Saturday night was an Easter miracle. I don't see much more for a couple weeks. Might be able to get some quality precip late April but delays would not surprise me. Gotta chip away at what will become a significant SER and Mid-Atlantic ridge. Then getting into May (note weeks 3-5 are notoriously awful forecasts) charts show WNW flow and only normal precip. Meh. Weeks 3-5 are considered the un-sweet forecast range beyond daily extended forecasting yet not covered by reliable seasonal signals. Hope for all our yards is El Nino signal kicks in quickly in June. Normal heights and seasonable moisture would open the door for summer thundershowers. We'll see if / how the drought impacts dewpoints though.

Memphis Pyramid Effect.. or the Great Wall of the Mississippi River.. or a stubborn Southeast Ridge. My chips are on the latter. Frustrating!

The Great Plains may have a good week. First we have this Tuesday trouble in Illinois, which may relaod on Thursday. The real Alley is up on Wednesday and perhaps again on Friday. There's no place like Kansas - except both the tornadoes and the Jayhawks have been in a coma the last 4 seasons. Looks like the early week Illinois system never sends a front our way. After Plains / Midwest system number 2 we should have thunderstorms in the Mid-South on Saturday. Timing and weakening LLJ limit severe chances IMHO. Then on Sunday we'd like to see skies quickly clear for Easter. Cool trough is forecast early next week. Next system is forecast late next week into that weekend. April 12th anyone? Oh my!

Mountains were pretty! We got a few runs up at Sugar. After hitting 80 in Chatty last week, driving up and seeing snow before reaching the Tri Cities was a trip. Great time with family spring break. So looks like the AC will be humming this weekend. Then back to slightly below normal temps next week (except midweek). Should even get cool and cozy nights and mornings a few days next week. WNW flow in early spring is a wild ride! Appears that the last few days of March will usher in a warm early April. Mid Atlantic ridge may not be centered over the Valley. See if it'll let in some April showers.

Well here in the South I'd have said the same thing, lol! Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Kansas and Auburn (NIT) all play today. My Wichita State is also in the NIT. Could be a fun day. Could be heartburn. What happened to Georgia? STL opened up a can of General Sherman. Not a huge upset 8v9 but an epic blowout!

That could happen if we get a Rockies trough and Mid Atlantic ridge. All 3 major weekly products have AN heights in the Mid Atlantic, but normal out West. Would be enough if a system or two pass through that flow. Until then I don't see much exciting. Might get wind/hail outlooks (like Day 3 Sunday from Friday) but the WNW flow should keep tornado outlooks in check for 10+ days. We'll see what April brings.