nrgjeff

Wow you've been hosed @dwagner88 we have done pretty well since June IMBY. I remember you moved though. Post frontal in Chattanooga feels so wonderful! Still dew 70+ but it's cloudy with a north breeze. Staying cloudy post frontal feels great in summer. Could be a preview of El Nino though. For now, focus on the good today. And think of football season!

Strong tropical forcing can disrupt the PV. However if the Arctic is mild there's less cold air to deliver. My thinking is a couple sharp but very brief cold snaps. Otherwise split flow may included a wonky northern stream but steady southern stream.

El Nino and its atmospheric response seem to be locking in and digging in. Of course we'll still have ebb and flow like anytime. For example August may start with a heat burst to the East coast that gets us. Otherwise it's mainly just the Mid South getting baked (early next week again).

It's still got a snow tag. Might as well add winter, lol! Perhaps that's just to make us feel less hot right now. After the severe today they have flash flood risk for Wednesday. Can't argue with a front stalling. What else do they do in July? Got a tropical system far enough away to be no threat, but it still helps pump in moisture. Ambient moisture is enough anyway. These dewpoints are ludicrous even for July!

Kentucky supercells just don't care if the low levels are all veered off. Kentucky gonna Kentucky. I doubt they are as strong after sunset so I agree with SPC. No Crossville special. Just barely out of the 2%. Separately I got a kick out of two NYC anchors who are from the Midwest or South talking about their tornado risk today. Weather people are all the same. Totally forgot their audience is probably terrified. Oh well!

Saturday 2% seems about right. Modest flow is forecast in the upper levels. It's not really backed, but a cooking outflow boundary can take care of the low levels. See how much sun comes out between rounds. Otherwise, summer clusters with some organization and straight wind seems reasonable.

Summer of '57 is a bit before my time but I know KCMO had terrible flooding. Mercifully that's not the case this year. That said, parts of the Midwest have experienced flooding this summer. Summer of '97 was meh heat in the Plains. Y'all have to refresh my memory here. Let's see what the next 2-3 weeks brings out there.

I'll take the other side of that. Kalshi and Poly both have weather I believe. Even saw it on Draft Kings predictions, which could be dangerous lol!

These dewpoints are simply unacceptable at these temps. Qatar World Cup weather is not what we need for ours! The only acceptable place for such temps/dews is chasing Bangladesh and with a proper hodograph. Otherwise it ain't right anywhere! I figure with more thunderstorms the humidity will hold in. Now looks like at least low 90s highs drags into next week. Heat index will stay 100 to 105. Guess after about a week of 110 that'll start to feel normal though. Until then enjoy the long weekend. Happy 250 America!

Not bad for a mid-summer easterly flow MCS. Usually 15% is it for wind. We'll see.

Models are always bad in mesoscale season, as you know. At least this website is back to normal speed. Saturday had Crossville special written all over it. I gave up mid-afternoon after cells near Pikeville looked like crap. Then at sunset while I'm back home enjoying the World Cup, tornado warning Cumberland Co. What a hobby!

NBM which does really well on temps is mid-90s with some 97 and 98s. I was skeptical its first year or two. A mid-range high-res ensemble? Well the NBM has performed very well both winter and summer high demand weather. Guess it'll bust occasionally like anything, but I'm optimistic we can avoid widespread 100s. That said, somebody will get there. Also humidity will be atrocious. Also regardless of anything heat index 100-110 will be hazardous. We are not acclimated yet after the modest start to summer.

East based super Nino should be warm and stormy. Agree the secondary pattern probably will be a couple weeks of Arctic dump. Loss of baroclinicty at the hemispheric level allows the jet stream to weaken, buckle, and deliver cold. Primary pattern I'm looking for mild mainly due to no cold air to deliver (outside the very meridional patterns) from the Midwest or even south-central Canada. East based is less conducive for other cold patterns. Maybe we can get southwest flow all winter. If it's not going to snow, give me severe! Might be my last post for a while. Why is the board so slow?

Starting this weekend through the Fourth looks like some summer temps are coming. Numerical models and humans looking at Nino and teleconnections promise it's brief. Talking the week in question; then, back to where we are now. Hopefully those signals for just one week hold!

Here is what I saw about 6:30 Eastern from the North Georgia Costco. Lookout Mountain became envoloped. I infer a rain curtain punching out front, but could not discern any rotation. The 80 mph tag was probably justified. I'm shocked Chattanooga doesn't have more damage. As for the Georgia side, I saw a mini-cut (not pictured) but it wasn't enough to spin up a tornado. Warning was justified though; it was trying to rotate.