vortexse93

I have done some analysis for AMJ and I think April will continue to be active. As for May and June, it looks bleak will save that discussion for another time.

I have sups

Looking at the model guidance and seeing the 12z HRRR, will stay local and if something comes my way I will attempt to chase it then. I would think about heading east this morning, but will have to fight the QLCS on my way back and not worth the risk, especially on a day like today where storms will spins.

I would not dare chase south of I-20 towards that direction on a slight risk or enhanced risk day. You think I am going to chase on a moderate or high risk day, that is crazy lol

It might be a road of this

00z HRRR is really concerning me. I haven't see the HRRR this consistent. Usually there is some difference or some sort of back and forth. Really concerning and FV3 is not showing much difference.

No chase for me tonight as storm development will after sunset. This will likely be my last full breakdown discussions before tomorrow, any updates from will likely be brief or will be quoting SPC MDs for much of the day. Tomorrow has me very concern for long-track and violent tornadoes across much of Central MS as model guidance has severely backed off on any morning time convection for the region. My second concern is the possible eastward progression of a dryline ahead of the cold front. Dry lines are not common for this region and could be the reason why models have supercell heavy the over the last couple of days. Drylines are excellent lifting sources for storm development and are more common out in Tornado Alley. Timing of these storms can be as early as mid-day tomorrow and will most likely remain discrete and supercell storms. These discrete storms will not have the biggest tornado threat associated with them, but will also have the potential to produce long track and violent tornadoes tomorrow. Since I am new to this forum, I do not use that language very lightly or very often. Tomorrow has the day to be a very eventful day. For chasing, had thoughts to chase, however, having to fight any potential supercells on the way back or QLCS storms in this type of environment is not warrant for me. However, as @jaxjagmanmentioned, if things line up properly, the storms will come to me. For this reason, I will remain local for tomorrow's severe weather threat. I have some local spots that will be great for viewing if the opportunity presents itself. Tomorrow is not a day for inexperience chasers to be chasing in Dixie Alley. The setup were more into the Delta, I would most be considering a chase, but that is not the case. For those that go chasing, be extremely careful and mindful of the weather conditions and the road networks around MS/AL.

18Z HRRR is trying to sign my death certificate

For me personally, will need to see how Friday plays out before making any decision. While I would typically have something a little more concrete, I do not this time around as CAMs are struggling one way or another. Also, Friday night into Saturday morning will dictate what will transpire across MS and AL as whole. As it stands right now, will prep as if I were to chase with the the understanding that it will most likely be a no go for me at this time. The last thing I wan to do is force myself to chase something that the risk is not worth the reward and put myself in unnecessary harm. Will continue to monitor model guidance and trends at this time before making a final decision.

I am currently keeping my eyes out for Friday into Saturday. By glancing at the models over the last few days, I am personally not liking the timing nor the placement of this setup. This round I may end up sitting this one out. For me personally, it will be a stretch to make near Northeast AR/MO on Friday. For Saturday, the threat will be to my east and chasing east of I-55 is nearly impossible. While there are some spots that are decent to chase in, I am not much on fighting trees and hills. Plus, have some concerns in how Saturday morning may play out with the morning storms ahead of the main show. Have seen time after time when morning storms tend to ruin events. Not saying that will happen, it is something to keep in the back of the mind when making these decisions. Will continue to watch and see what the higher res models are showing by this time tomorrow.

I noticed a lot of chasers being super aggressive with their forecast and always hyping things up which is why I don’t listen to a lot of it. Just because there is severe weather potential does mean it equals emergency tornado outbreak.

I totally agree with this 100%. This also why I tend to be down to earth and not get so into hype and excitement.

March 14th to March 15th has everyone on stand by and rightfully so. While there is good model agreement at this time, there are some slight differences between them. Personally, I am liking the track and speed at which the EURO model has for this system. With a -NAO, troughs should be digging a little further south and should have be moving a little slower, which the EURO does show. The NAO is forecasted to remain negative well past the 15th of March, so the faster moving solution the GFS is showing, I am less confident in at this time. With such a big warm sector forecasted for the 14th-15th, this reminds of a similar setup back on March 31st, 2023 where there were two distinct areas for severe weather, one in AR/TN/MS and the other in the Midwest that was associated with the main sfc Low if I do recall correctly. In NO WAY, I am saying this will be a repeat of that event. I can not stress that enough! What I am saying that the pattern is there to see two different areas being the gun for severe weather. However those details can not be fine tune at this time and the size of the warm sector and the SPC Day 6 Outlook reflects that as well. The finer details for March 14th to March 15th will determine my storm chase decision but for now it is on my radar for the time being.

I have not looked into the details of the overall weather pattern going into the second half of March, but the current CFS does have my hopes up at the moment for a potential chase. Will have a more detail discussion/breakdown later on this weekend for this time frame. For now, will continue to watch model guidance and trends rest of this week. Until then, y'all have a good rest of the week!