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USCG RS

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About USCG RS

  • Birthday 08/15/1989

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KHWV
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    Male
  • Location:
    Brookhaven, NY

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  1. Depending on size of the storm.... But yes, I would expect an increase in maximum sustained winds. Unfortunately.
  2. Yes sir. (It fits my theory I proposed during Irma... And with other scientific theories proposed by those much more educated than me in this field). But the physics of the HBL are easily disrupted by land. The physics which allow the convergence and eventual building of the secondary eyewall is easily messed up. As such, the ERC can be delayed, which thus can hurt the structure of the storm (to explain this post further, my theory was that ERC are a normal part of keeping a healthy and mature storm, that happen regardless of outside influences )
  3. Wow
  4. I'm not saying it's definitely going to get that low, but he's already interacting with the ULL s/w at h5 and a rather weak jet. Combine that with the baroclynic leaf already beginning to present and I can see this deepening some.
  5. ET transition
  6. The difference with this is that she will likely be a major hurricane moving up the eastern seaboard. This presents a different scenario and with the WAR likely remaining strong, she should continue to plow to the north. She will take the path of least resistance, and though the AO looks to continue favor blocking over the mid atl and NE, I don't see it being strong enough to surpress Maria (assuming she is a major hurricane). That WAR is unrelenting. Likewise, just look at what Jose is doing and we can see that there is a good chance that if Jose can push through the AO created blocking, Maria likely will as well. Additionally, if the NAM (big if) is correct and Jose actually makes landfall, he becomes a remnant lp system, even if he is able to make the loop. This means that he will not be strong enough to create an out for Maria to escape ots. I am very concerned at this point for the EC.
  7. There is a good chance that she will be a major hurricane moving up the eastern seaboard. This presents an interesting scenario, especially with the WAR remaining strong. Consequently, she should continue to plow to the north. She will take the path of least resistance, and though the AO looks to continue favor blocking over the mid atl and NE, I don't see it being strong enough to surpress Maria (assuming she is a major hurricane). That WAR is unrelenting. Likewise, just look at what Jose is doing and we can see that there is a good chance that if Jose can push through the AO created blocking, Maria likely will as well. Additionally, and this is the second key, if the NAM (big if) is correct and Jose actually makes landfall, he becomes a remnant lp system, rendering unable to make the loop as an actual meaningful system. This means that he will not be strong enough to create an out for Maria to escape ots. I am very concerned at this point for the EC.
  8. Incorrect, New Jersey coast, Delaware coast and Nassau and Suffolk counties Long Island are under a Ts watch. Additionally so is SE CT.
  9. The 3km Nam is normally great for mesoscale events and mid latitude cyclones. As far as tropical, it's not the best, but this may be a different type of story given the complexities of this particular storm. All things considered, I would look at the trends of the 3km and take its intensity into account as well. If the 3k follows itself next run, I'll take it more seriously.
  10. Any extra tropicals transition you think?
  11. If that were to happen with the Euro, that would bring a Cat 1 or so into Long Island, no?
  12. I have several friends in various Oem positions throughout the EC. One of them literally just text me, "What happens if the new runs are correct? What are we to believe?" (Referring to the NAM and Ukmet)
  13. What the &* lol
  14. Without a Cuban interaction, that likely verifies.
  15. No way Jose is still tropical at that point.