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  1. Definitely hs my attention...
  2. When is the last time we had the NAO copperate?
  3. Look at the blossoming of radar, I'd agree with them. The dynamics are truly kicking off now
  4. I don't blame them, the jet dynamics/ vorticity with this storm are rather strong.
  5. I don't trust the gfs at this range, not that it has performed all that well with this storm. That being said, with short range, hi res models depicting a rather primed and conducive atmosphere, along with the overperforming of down south, I would tend to believe the stronger / more west solutions. I'm also waiting to see what happens with the interactions and if we do get any true latent heat release, we will see.
  6. Yes. So many people do not realize how close we truly are to a rather significantly stronger storm. Aloft, it's a matter of a couple hours.
  7. I'm about positive he's just a troll...
  8. It's so much easier to up a forecast than to back pedal and lower it in terms of public opinion. Most of the time over forecasting costs much more economically than under forecasting (think of the blizzard prep work and everyone shutting everything down for the blizzard that never hit NYC)
  9. Beat me to it lol. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ079&warncounty=NYC103&firewxzone=NYZ079&local_place1=2%20Miles%20NW%20Manorville%20NY&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=40.8846&lon=-72.8252#.WipWactOngA
  10. This is definitely a factor also.
  11. 4-7/4-8" meets criteria, because criteria is 6". The Avg of 4-8" is 6" and the Avg of 4-7" is 5.5" which rounds up to 6".
  12. Let's not start this again rgem....*flashes back to blizzard last year that never was*
  13. It all comes down to the upper air and placement of the n/s and its interaction. The trough is not oriented as well as we would like so therefore this is thread the needle situation. As such, solutions back and forth are very likely, especially as our n/s is not fully sampled yet. Deep breath everybody.