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  • Birthday 08/15/1989

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  • Location:
    Brookhaven, NY

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  1. Snow/Slop Storm 2/17-18 Obs

    The storm is just emerging off the delmarva coast. Likewise the ULL is beginning to have a nice interaction with the coastal. We have a good shot at a couple more hours of some sn to sn+ Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
  2. Snow/Slop Storm 2/17-18 Obs

    The trend for the past decade or so has been for much more latent heat energy and thus available 'juice' for storms. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
  3. Feb. 17th-18th, 2018 Bowling Snow

    The issue here is that the higher resolution models are more useful for this particular set up. Likewise, it is normally understood that the GFS tends to have a warmer bias. In this situation, the higher resolution models are going to be able to see the Cold air 'better' than a global such as the GFS which has much lower resolution. Thus this is why, I believe, the Euro is also much colder, better resolution. For the record, the GFS has many times shown nothing but rain for an event when several inches of snow has already accumulated. This is why meteorology is about understanding the physics of the atmosphere. From here a meteorologist can pick and parse the reasoning of the various models, thus finding what they perceive to be the issues within each model output forecast. The GFS is not too shabby for some forecasts, this particular set up is jot one of them however.
  4. Feb. 17th-18th, 2018 Bowling Snow

    You mean disregard the model that is playing into its known bias' and is less useful for this type of event? *blink blink* but why? Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
  5. This came through via Twitter Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
  6. Jan 29/30 storm threat

    I can confirm Upton has reported over 7". I, personally am measuring 7.9". Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
  7. Jan 29/30 storm threat

    Winter Wx Adv issued for Southern CT and LI Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
  8. Jan 29/30 storm threat

    This snow is actually on the heavier side, and it's slippery. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
  9. Forecasting Mid-Long Range WITHOUT Models.

    One thing you may want to consider is learning computer coding throughout college so that you can do research for computer models. Perhaps you can improve them. Other than that, I would heed the advice of the Met above.
  10. Start to Meteorology

    Western Atlantic Ridge Global Models tend to have a much lower resolution than Mesoscale models. Global models in the long range have a variety of issues. To simplify things, lets look at it this way: Global models are used to show the thousand foot view of all the weather players which are interacting with each other. Mesoscale models, on the other hand, are used to look at the finer details and to help pinpoint small scale features such as banding during snow storms. Mesoscale tend to be short range models, however, due to the fact that they tend to have a much higher resolution than that of their counterparts (globals). This resolution, though, gives rise to several issues. First, its the chaos theory. Within this theory is the butterfly effect which states that a simple mistake early on leads to significant mistakes later on. With higher resolutions, these mistakes are amplified further due to the fact that higher resolutions use a much higher computation speed (more equations). On the other hand, while globals may not have these limitations, they do not have the resolution to "see" many of the intricacies which the meso models can. As such, globals tend to miss things which are limited by their resolution. This, consequently, allows globals to miss intricacies which can likewise lead to large discrepancies towards the end of the run, though this does not happen as often.
  11. January 2018 Model Discussion Thread

    With the PNA Going so positive and the epo in firm negative territory, this has the potential for another significant winter Weather event for the tri state area.
  12. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    Just outside bm
  13. Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

    Meteorology not modology
  14. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    Heck of a storm.