CheeselandSkies

We gonna west shift all the way to Texas?

September is an odd time for severe weather events in this region, but with the way August overachieved compared to May and June I suppose anything is possible at this point. Hell just within the last five years we've had tornado outbreaks in December and February.

What looked from video like a fairly large tornado occurred in New Jersey associated with Ida's remnant low.

I'm good with that as long as it's not a whole season.

Nice respite after the wonderfully stormy (regionally speaking) but often warm/oppressively humid August.

That's more of a dry slot than a proper eye, but this has great outflow structure and no vertical stacking issues early on unlike most of the earlier-season systems. This cyclone is going places, especially as it gets into warmer waters further west and even northwest.

Sure it is. They report 135kt/155 MPH easily (was Michael's operational landfall intensity). 55, 95 and 135 MPH are the ones you won't see because there's no conversion from knots that rounds to 5. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Kinda reminds me of Irma...remember after that first bout of RI close to Africa it kind of hung out at the borderline between Cat. 2/3 for a day or two and then it hit the rocket fuel. Of course Ida doesn't have that long but it's hitting the rocket fuel now.

I da bomb.

Those outflow channels...there's a reason the hurricane symbol is shaped like it is.

As usual, the MS River acts as a brick wall for tornadic supercells coming east out of Iowa.

Aw man, I coulda made it to Iowa today. That went just north of my storm on 7/14. I got too caught up in watching Hurricane Ida stuff after work and then took a nap, didn't pay attention to what was going on here locally.

Severe thunderstorm warning out for parts of Iowa/Sauk/Dane, LEWP apparent on KARX.

SPC today... LOL summer.

MKX's late morning AFD update was good for an LOL:

"No...Ida." "BLAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGH!"

All the surge with Zeta was over sparsely populated Terrebonne Parish, it moved through quickly with damaging winds on the front eyewall but little on the back side, as it had already begun to open up (halfacane).

Agreed, an embarrassing number of recon issues lately. We'll have to resort to assessing TC intensity by surveying after the fact like with tornadoes.

It's not lopsided...that's typical wind distribution for a well-formed hurricane.

...and that leaves room for further intensification with 24 hrs between forecast points.

Effect will be negligible if only goes over that narrow western end. It didn't do much to Charley as I recall (maybe knocked it back 5kt, but that didn't stop the RI prior to Florida landfall).

HWRF with this has given us Laura Pt. 2, Ike Pt. 2, and now Rita Pt. 2. Nothing good, either way.

Enhanced for wind today, now also Day 2 slight for Friday with 5% tor over northern Iowa/SE MN/WC WI.

Day 2 slight/marginal expanded eastward to include much of IA/S. WI/N. IL on 1730 update. Rather like yesterday, an area of intense and/or concentrated severe weather could occur, but it's impossible to pinpoint where, hence the meh probabilities.

Well on the plus side I guess if it is a Laura redux, there's not much left in that area to destroy (don't forget Delta also affected that general area last year). I suspect Cameron, Creole and Grand Chenier are pretty much gone. Only thing is if it does what Laura didn't and comes in a little west of Calcasieu Pass, pushing the surge right through it and into downtown Lake Charles. Laura's landfall was pretty much a center bullseye on the pass, meaning the brunt of the onshore flow/surge was just to the east of there.