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About StormfanaticInd

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  1. Of course. I'm out. You can go ahead and ban me. Lol
  2. This look in the winter would be interesting is what I am saying
  3. I never said that. Are you always so critical. Jeez
  4. All the ingredients to the potential for widespread moderate to heavy rain and isolated severe thunderstorms on Friday as a cold front slides southeast across central Indiana Friday and Friday evening courtesy of an approaching sharp upper trough and surface high pressure over the Rockies and High Plains. Modest to moderate low level 35 knot jet pointing in from western Kentucky will bring in precipitable water amounts to the 99th percentile for this time of year. This will combine with strong deep layer shear of over 50 knots and low level shear near 50 knots to support the potential of isolated damaging winds despite only weak instability. 115 plus knot upper level jet streak lifting northeast around the base of the trough over northwestern Indiana or northeastern Illinois late Friday supports moderate to heavy rain. Thus, 90 plus percent PoPs look good for Friday with rain moving east into Ohio overnight Friday night and Saturday morning. Look for rainfall of half an inch to over an inch over most or all locations Friday and Friday night.
  5. Illinois does seem to be the prime spot for tomorrow
  6. Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms -- including potential for hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes -- are expected to spread from the Mid Mississippi Valley region early, north-northeastward into the Upper Great Lakes through the evening/overnight hours Monday and into early Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough digging south-southeastward across California and the Great Basin Monday will evolve into a closed low, which is expected deepen and turn eastward overnight reaching the southwestern Utah vicinity Tuesday morning. Ahead of this system, a negatively tilted short-wave trough will be shifting northeastward across the Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys during the day, before crossing the Upper Great Lakes region overnight. Meanwhile, ridging will remain in place -- aligned roughly along the Appalachians. At the surface, a cold front associated with the western U.S. trough will sweep across the Great Basin and into the Four Corners states. Meanwhile, a cold front shifting eastward out of the southern Plains toward the Mississippi Valley will weaken with time, while an associated/weak frontal low advances northeastward from Missouri to Wisconsin/Upper Michigan through the period. ...Mid Mississippi Valley northward into the Upper Great Lakes... Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from western Illinois/Missouri south-southwestward to southeastern Texas, ahead of an advancing cold front. A couple of stronger storms ongoing early could pose local risk for severe weather. After a few hours of local/limited risk, diurnal heating through late morning and into the afternoon will permit sufficient destabilization to allow gradual reintensification/redevelopment of storms, from Illinois to the Mississippi Delta region, then spreading northward and northeastward through the afternoon. Though flow aloft will remain largely south-southwesterly/unidirectional, sufficient speed shear combined with weak veering through the lowest 1 km or so suggests that locally severe/rotating storms will evolve, with threat for damaging wind gusts, along with some hail risk and potential for a couple of tornadoes across a relatively broad geographic region. A bit more uncertainty exists with northward extent, and into the evening hours, into the Great Lakes region. While ascent will spread across this region supporting a continuation of convection through the evening and into the overnight hours, less substantial instability -- diminishing further in tandem with diurnal cooling -- suggests that severe risk will wane gradually from late evening onward.
  7. NWS NORTHERN INDIANA "A vigorous upper low will be ejecting up from the southwest during this period, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area Monday night into Tuesday morning. SPC now has the area in a slight risk for severe storms with this system. This is definitely plausible as a high shear, low CAPE situation. NAM sfc CAPE is less than 2000 J/kg, but bulk shear increases to 50 kts Monday evening. Damaging wind, hail, and even a few tornadoes will be possible."
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