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Everything posted by StormfanaticInd

  1. Big time pattern change underway. Much cooler weather on the way
  2. System this week is giving me winter vibes
  3. Noticing blocking tendencies on the gefs already. Interesting
  4. I'm used to getting weenied. I agree. Very electrical storms for September
  5. This fall is show signs of being active severe weather wise. Something we haven't seen in a while
  6. Impressive line of of storms on this model to
  7. I think we end up seeing an enhanced risk for tomorrow. Pretty strong Windfield for this event
  8. KIWX An upper level trof will amplify over the eastern CONUS downstream of an anomalously strong upper ridge over the North American Rocky Mountains. Temperatures will become briefly warmer Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front associated with the amplifying trof. GFS has been consistent the past 4 (6hr) runs with mass fields and general timing of the front. The 00Z GFS still favors a cold front passage from late Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday night providing a diurnally favorable time for convection. Low level theta E will surge northeast in a narrow band during the day Tuesday. In addition to the advection of a modified elevated mix layer (EML), mid levels winds from 50 to 75 knots and thermal profiles of CAPE values reaching 1500 to 2000 J/Kg indicate favorable chances for damaging thunderstorm winds. The CIPS analogs continues to support chances for severe weather as very strong mid level winds develop. Have been keeping a watch on an analog from 9/10/1992 which matches mass fields quite well and portends in a severe direction
  9. From KIND A closed upper low and associated surface low are progged to track through the northern Great Lakes Region on Tuesday. This will be a quick moving system though with any shower/thunderstorm chances out of the area by Tuesday night. However, thunderstorms will be a threat on Tuesday afternoon/evening as the environment destabilizes in the warm sector of the surface low. Southwest surface flow will push daytime highs back into the mid to upper 80s for a day with dew points in the 60s. With the moderate instability and forcing, would not rule out isolated strong thunderstorms at times.
  10. From northern Indiana "We then turn our attention to a deepening low moving through the upper Great Lakes. A warm front may lift in Tuesday morning, followed by a cold front in the evening. At this distance, conditions seem favorable for severe thunderstorms: bulk wind shear of 40-50 knots, low-level lapse rates near 9C/km and plenty of CAPE. Upper-level support locally appears favorable as well with the right entrance region of the 500-mb jet nearby. Check back for updates in the coming days."
  11. Tuesday is starting to get my attention
  12. Appears Ida is still strengthening given the satellite presentation. This storm means business
  13. I agree. It has turned into an embarrassing clown show
  14. Major bust today. Mcs season will do that to you
  15. Trump needs to be in prison for the rest of his pathetic life
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