Sydney Claridge

The Eppley livecam on WOWT was just hit by a tornado that touched down at Eppley.

Looks like some of the neighborhoods on the north side of Elkhorn, around Arbor View Elementary, were hit, based on the movement of the velocity signature and debris ball. EDIT: WOWT live stream just mentioned gate-to-gate shear of around 200 MPH, 100 in one direction and 105 in the other.

A very concerning scenario unfolding in the western suburbs of the Omaha metro.

The storm between Springtown and Boyd bears watching as it moves into the DFW metro area. The hail intensity on radar seems to be increasing.

The High Risk on March 2, 2012 did get into Ohio, with the 15% hatched (and MDT) encompassing the Columbus metro, but the sigtor threat didn't really materialize north of the Ohio River Valley in the state of Ohio. I'm getting flashbacks to that day looking at the model runs and SPC outlook, although SPC currently has the greatest risk for tomorrow outlined northeast of where they had the highest risk on 3/2/12. It looks like this CIPS analog run is showing 3/2/2012 (3/3/2012 at 0z) as the top analog for tomorrow, interestingly enough.

We have a tornado warning in the Frisco, TX area now. Somewhat broad rotation but it bears close watching; the hail is a huge threat regardless of any tornadic activity, though.

It’s also pretty interesting to see all of this happening near a radar site, too. The storms over the Kansas City metro also bear watching; the atmosphere there (per SPC Mesoanalysis) also seems primed for potential tornadic activity. Fortunately those storms seem to be behaving themselves (rotation-wise), but I did notice some weak rotation around Shawnee. It’s not really “behaving” though; there’s a hailstorm in the KC metro now.

Looks like they have. This looks like some serious rotation near Alta Vista, KS:

It’s 75 here in Fort Worth today! Absolutely beautiful. Seems like we’re expected to see highs in the 70s through Thursday, with rain (and thunderstorms) returning Friday.

Tornado confirmed near Coldspring, TX, per tornado warning text and KHOU livestream. EDIT: spotter-confirmed.

I agree. The center of the eye looks to be onshore now.

I noticed a Flash Flood Warning for east-central Ventura County, issued at 420 PM PDT, that mentioned rockslides and mudslides along California Route 150. Obviously, Hilary's precipitation alone can do this, but shaking saturated ground could trigger slides when they might not otherwise occur.

15/8/4

The orientation of the coastline in the Sittwe area definitely has me concerned about locally-enhanced storm surge. Mocha's strength and motion, along with the overall orientation of the coastline, are reminding me of Hurricane Ian, although there are great differences in topography (notice the hills and mountains running parallel to the coast). Those lowlands are in big trouble. I've extremely concerned about any humanitarian crisis that will follow Mocha's landfall. EDIT: it looks like I'm not too far off with respect to the highlighted area of concern, at least according to this forecast.

If at least one of these storms can manage to turn supercellular, I wonder if it could become a concern for the DFW metro?