CheeselandSkies

Here goes...central-western IA/northern Plains peeps enjoy. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0066.html

Looking back through my photos, this is the third straight winter season to feature much below normal accumulating snowfall for much of the S WI/N IL/E IA region prior to mid-January (or if there was any of consequence such as late October 2019, it melted off before Christmas). 2018-19 wasn't stellar either, although it had a nice storm on New Year's Eve (more impressive than 2021's, at least for MBY but it likewise melted within a few days) and 2017 only pulled off a technical white Christmas at Dane County Regional with a quick just-over-an-inch on Christmas Eve. Come to think of it, that's all the winter seasons since I've been an active poster on this forum. Maybe I'm the curse.

WAD>CAD.

The Bermuda Triangle of Snow.

Sure, and let's do it with nearly bare ground while we're at it.

Preview of me going in to work at 3 AM tomorrow:

Madison riding the gradient even with a NW-SE oriented system. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Fell from a "high" in the upper 20s at 1 AM to 10 degrees on a stiff northwest wind, expected to "rebound" to 15 degrees this afternoon. Serious question for the promets on here: What exactly is causing this pattern of whipsawing temperatures every 36~ish hours with little to no precipitation/storm events to show for it? Is it a case of the pattern being too active for its own good, so every FROPA is moisture-starved? Are the cold air pushes too suppressive, so no real cyclogenesis can occur?

Wouldn't that be Mayim, now? Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Again, for all the times he has busted bullish especially on the longer-range (Day 2+) outlooks...

12Z GFS gives Madison 6"(Kuchera) through the end of the run, while big sections of VA/northern NC get 36"-42".

According to 6Z GFS 10:1 we get 1.5" from now through 06Z 1/22. At 43° N.

2019 tried (Dayton day), and a little thing called Rochelle happened in 2015. But yeah other than that, not much of note in this region.

...when it will be cold rain followed by instant flip to WAD. Our outbreaks, if they happen, will come on random mesoscale accident days in July and August.

Normally I'd go home on my 7:30 AM "lunch" break at work. Not today.

Temps look to be on a roller coaster for the foreseeable future in our forecast from MKX. Every day of low 30s is immediately followed by a day of teens or single digits with lows below 0. @madwx Edit: @Chicago Storm alluded to it in the short/medium range discussion thread, as well.

This sneaky wind event (wasn't really paying attention to it, just the ever-decreasing forecast snow totals for tomorrow as the event drew closer) has the potential to be rather nasty. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Glancing over MKX's LSR page, measurements in this area seem to be in the 0.5" to 2" range. Madison was right on the pretty sharp NW gradient as per the forecasts. @madwx

Slight risk upgrade for 1/2 including most of GA, NW FL, SE AL, and the Carolinas.

I don't pay attention to his "forecasts," he calls everything a possible outbreak and has for years.

The snowrecho from hell.

Also surprising to me, since 2005 was when WI set its record count (implying more storm events) with a very active June plus the Stoughton outbreak.

Drier than 2012??? S***.

MKX has a forecast low of 4 and -4 for us Sat/Sun night but then high of 33 by Tuesday. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk