CheeselandSkies

Some of the forecast hodographs/SRH values being spit out by the NAM over portions of LA/MS for Tuesday evening are pretty scary in the presence of any instability at all and dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s.

MKX radar shows nothing, but there is steady rain in the Portage-Wisconsin Dells area. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

That seems worthy of a snow squall warning to me.

It'd be nice to get one of these patterns like the one progged for early next week in, say, late April or early May. But of course that is when the winterlike 500mb pattern will set in.

Remember what I said about have a holly, jolly tornado chase? Forecast sounding near Beardstown/Macomb, IL. Yes, it's a week out but verbatim the pattern is eerily similar to last December 15th.

Late November through 1st half of December is the new May. Have a holly, jolly tornado chase.

Kinda sorry I missed that, but I'm currently at a resort in Puerto Morelos, Q.R., Mexico and just had my first ever professional massage earlier today, so I'm not really jealous. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Stayed at work 45 minutes late today as we were in wall to wall until the last warning expired for the Madison media market. Our met at first assumed they'd warned for a cold air funnel. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Apollo 12 was struck by lightning twice immediately after liftoff, and not only survived but successfully completed its mission to the Moon.

This is basically a Wilma-sized storm hitting the more populated area that Charley did with roughly the same intensity.

How else do you think everything is reported in nice, clean 5 or 10 kt/MPH increments? Another example, you will never see a 55 MPH advisory intensity with a tropical storm because 45kt converts to 51.79 MPH which rounds down to 50 MPH; and 50kt = 57.54 MPH which rounds up to 60 MPH. The same thing happens with 95 MPH, 135 MPH, and 170 MPH.

Couple of Ian-related LSRs popping up, tropical storm conditions and wind damage observed in the Keys. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 443 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0435 PM TROPICAL STORM 5 WSW BOCA CHICA CHANNE 24.55N 81.80W 09/27/2022 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL PUBLIC A LARGE SILVER BUTTONWOOD WAS DOWNED BY HIGH WINDS ON UNITED STREET AND DUVAL STREET IN KEY WEST. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 457 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0454 PM TROPICAL STORM 4 WSW BOCA CHICA 24.56N 81.75W 09/27/2022 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL ASOS A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH, OR 52 KTS, WAS RECORDED BY THE ASOS AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT 445 PM EDT. THIS GUST WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER RAINBAND OF HURRICANE IAN.

More hot towers firing up on the last few frames of the IR loop, Ian doing more work on its already impressive eyewall.

Global model resolution isn't high enough to accurately model pressures in intense TCs. Values from the GFS and especially the EURO and UKMET shouldn't be taken verbatim.

Where's @ldub23? How's that TS at landfall looking?

Nice one, considering NHC doesn't report 135 MPH since they do everything in kts then round. Thus 115kt rounds to 130 MPH and 120kt to 140. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Seems there's almost always some sort of steering breakdown/stall/sharp turn involved right around landfall that complicates the forecast. Harvey, Irma, Florence, Dorian, Sally...now Ian. Storms that just truck right on across the coast like Andrew or Charley seem to be the rare exception (Micheal being the only such case in recent years*, perhaps not coincidentally it's also the only one in their league regarding LF intensity). *Well, actually Laura and Ida too...A.K.A. the shrimp folk storms.

Gutsy call given the bulk of the modeling remains just offshore followed by a stall and limping into the NGOM/Big Bend coast while being sheared apart. Still would have some significant impacts, no doubt and a weenie-tastic nail biter of a forecast.

Surprise line of severe t-storms in SE WI today. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Euro isn't a TC intensity model and its pressures shouldn't be taken verbatim. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Some systems in recent years I'd agree with that sentiment, Hermine is not such a case based on the satellite images I saw around time of upgrade. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Stole Hermine per 18Z BT, so now 9 is gonna get the "I," naturally.

Looks like the eye collapsed (or at least became cloud-filled), then just re-opened again.

Took so long this season my click finger has gotten rusty, I can barely save satellite loops fast enough.

Ladies and gentlemen, we have what is known as "the opening of the eye."