CheeselandSkies

That stupid cutoff (remnants of the previous trough that produced the severe weather Wednesday through yesterday) is what will ruin this next few days of would-be setups by preventing the next trough from ejecting across the Plains properly.

Of course we all kind of suspected this was coming but it's depressing to watch it unfold on the GFS. Monster CAPE/moisture finally arrives early next week but no upper support/trigger. Hello, summer.

May 31, El Reno tornado killed Tim Samaras & crew and became the widest tornado (officially) on record.

Kind of odd how with the extended stretch of BA temps (leafout is the furthest behind on May 2nd I ever recall it being in my adult life, and that includes the godawful springs of 2014 and 2018); yet I've already been on two local/regional storm chases this year (could have been three if I hadn't been dumb and sat out 3/5), which is more than I usually have by this point in the spring. For obvious reasons, I associate severe potential with AA temps and the (theoretically) accompanying moisture/instability.

Spent yesterday afternoon basically driving in a circle from Madison-Rochelle-Paw Paw-Mendota-Amboy-Franklin Grove-Rochelle-Marengo-Harvard-Madison. I first bit on the original round of development, there was one cluster with its tail-end cell showing a bit of a hook structure on reflectivity near Paw Paw so I exited I-39 to eastbound Chicago Road though Paw Paw. I was out of position on the wrong side of the cell relative to where the rain-free/updraft base/area of interest would be were it to become an actual supercell, so I went all the way east and then south on Leland Road to get a view. By this time it was already looking less interesting on radar and another cluster was filling in to its immediate south, and none of this seemed in any hurry to do anything (no warnings at this point). I decided to bail for a new cluster that was developing near/north of Kewanee so I went west on Suydam Road through Rollo and looped back to Paw Paw and I-39 to Mendota, then west on US 34 and northwest on US 52 to Sublette and Amboy. Then up to Franklin Grove and back to Rochelle, then on I-39 once again northbound to 64, through Esmond to Fairdale. I was eastbound on 72 between Kirkland and Kingston when the tornado warning went out for Boone County to my north. I had been keeping pace with the tail south end of the cluster, expecting that if anything was going to do something, that would be it. Instead it was the north end that went tornadic, although it didn't appear chaseable on radar (a big, bowing comma head with the couplet buried deep in the heavy rain) it was the only game in town and it was on my way home. I made a futile bid to catch up to it on 23 to Harvard, as it had a much more northerly than easterly component to its motion, but never could reach it before the warnings expired and I just took US-14 home, a nice way to avoid paying another toll on I-39/90.

Broke off the mediocre eastern cluster near Paw Paw, now sitting in Sublette to see if this stuff to my WSW or the stuff down by Peoria does anything. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

We'll see if that stuff between Prophetstown and Kewanee does anything... Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

That's the problem w/narrowing down a target today, CAMS and SPC are no help lol. Partially my proximity bias at play but the IL/WI stateline region looks as good as any as it's where the tongue of moisture gets pulled back toward the TP.

Probably head down to Rochelle early afternoon and go from there...as usual.

This would definitely make my cut for a 21st-century "Tornado Video Classics" compilation. There's so much HD footage being taken of almost every event now, it's sometimes hard to pick out what's really special. Not in this case.

I was referring to the Wichita area stuff apparently failing to become sustained/organized before total darkness, and the NE/KS border area stuff getting undercut by the cold front and clustering up before it could produce a long-track significant tornado.

Embedded sup SW of TWX radar has had an impressive couplet at times over the last 20 minutes.

Really strange behavior on radar...almost looks like the tornado moved north across the back end of the supercell instead of moving along with it.

Of course...literally the minute I call bust and stop paying attention.

Reminds me so much of how 5/26/21 played out. Dryline target seemed to be uptrending throughout the day of, only to fail anyway.

Next Tuesday could also potentially be a severe weather day somewhere in the sub. 06Z GFS has an ideal surface pattern for a N IL outbreak at FH102...except it's happening at 12Z. The cold front is pushing through far SE Lower MI/NW OH/southern IN by 00Z Wednesday.

Wind-driven moderate risk upgrade centered on the KS/NE border at 13Z. Wasn't really expecting that. If they were gonna go moderate I thought it would be 15% tornado/45% hail down in S KS/N OK. They did directly address this in the discussion: This is really the kind of day that the 10% hatched Enhanced is perfect for, IMO. In the old 3-tier outlook structure, there isn't enough confidence in sustained tornadic supercell development over S KS/OK for a 15% hatched moderate risk, but a 5%/slight risk doesn't really convey the extent of the hazards that would occur should any such storms get going.

Yep, GFS/NAM/3KM NAM pretty much all agree on far EC IL into Indiana being the hot spot. Hoping the GFS's 2nd-day (of a severe event, thinking of 4/12-13) progressive bias is at play here, although the NAM agreement gives me pause.

The bolded was what burned my chase on 5/26/21. I gambled that the CAMS being relatively subdued with convection/UH in west-central/SW KS was a positive thing for chase quality. I ended up on that skeletal LP northwest of Scott City; after it was clear to me it wasn't going to intensify (and in fact was doing the opposite), I broke for additional cells SW of Dodge City which suffered a similar fate by the time I reached them. I don't recall capping really being thought to be a big event-breaker leading up to that day. Was there something else at play?

Truth.

FYP.

Interesting to see Monday starting to show as a potential setup...it caught my eye on the GFS a few days ago but the soundings were all totally capped.

12Z run holds serve and goes out to 00Z Sunday...not the ideal setup but looks like good mid/upper diffluence and lapse rates over the warm sector...SPC gonna need to come north/possibly east (into IN) quite a bit with the Day 4 risk area if that verifies.

12Z NAM has 42 degrees for MBY at 21Z tomorrow, and 58 in Galesburg, IL about 2.5 degrees latitude south. Brutal.

It's at the end of its range but 06 NAM raised my eyebrows a bit for Saturday, although SPC placed their Day 4 risk area much further south. I'm loath to ask off so I can chase Friday after I took 4/13 off so I could get some sleep after marathoning 5 hours to Ft. Dodge after working 3A-noon Tuesday 4/12, only to miss the Gilmore City tornado by a few minutes/miles.