CheeselandSkies

Yeah @andyhb that 3CAPE is a big red flag screaming "CHASE THIS!"

Also notable that the 00Z NAM forecast dewpoint in east-central Iowa for 21Z tomorrow is 7 degrees. In 48 hours that's supposed to be nearly 60. In fact, last couple of NAM runs (especially 00Z) suggesting the northern end of this setup might struggle with moisture return moreso than previously thought. That cold high pressure tomorrow is really gonna wipe it out. OTOH it is the NAM so... And the precip fields even appear to be popping an arc of semi-discrete convection in that classic sweet spot just southeast of the surface low.

18Z GFS getting the low down to 979MB on the IA/MN border at 21Z Friday. Just southeast of the triple point in east-central Iowa is a pretty screamingly obvious target, square in the left exit region of the mid-level jet. For some reason low-level backing isn't stellar despite the powerhouse low. 18Z NAM, surprisingly, is more progressive and somewhat weaker initially but deepens the low from 21Z to 00Z with better low-level shear, with the target right over MBY into north-central IL. MKX remaining noncommittal, understandable at this point given the usual uncertainty with warm fronts in this region this time of year.

One interesting thing about that CFS map, there are cold anomalies in the West as well. So it's not the usual pattern of a locked in Hudson Bay vortex/PV lobe pouring cold air into the Lakes/East while the West bakes.

OH MY GOD the 12Z GFS at FH204 (00Z 4/5). Almost made me forget about this coming Friday. @andyhb@Chicago Storm

3/28/20 do-over?

Looking at Friday as my first chase day of the year. Hope it doesn't trend too much further west, as I have work till noon and will have been up since 2AM (3AM start). I believe the 5-hour positioning drive immediately after my shift clouded my decision-making last April 12th, contributing to me missing the Gilmore City tornado despite being like 10 miles from the storm when it first went severe-warned.

The HRRR lost its cluster of simulated long-track, warm sector sups with phat red UH streaks for a few runs in the mid-morning. Just speculation on my part but I think it was confused by the moisture mixing out and whether the later mass response/LLJ would be enough to recover from that. The 17Z run is back to suggesting several long-track, cyclic sups capable of families of EF3+ from LA/AR into MS this evening.

Same guy @Chinook posted the video from. I enjoy his videos as he generally forecasts without hyperbole unlike Weed Trimmer or Ryan Hall.

So does 18Z GFS. East-central IL at 21Z 3/31. Still a long ways out but it's nice to see something on the board.

Ik,r?

Only downside is periodically losing everything to a 130kt+ hurricane, and your insurance refuses to pay out because the industry would collapse if they did. Although Tampa seems pretty safe...Ian was always either gonna take the path it did or meander in the northern Gulf and limp into the Big Bend as a sheared barely-hurricane, so because the Tampa area lay between those extremes it was center of the cone for a while.

What else is new? lol

Long range Goofus loves cold so much, I've been tempted to ask why doesn't it marry it?

In 2021 April was relatively mild in southern Wisconsin, with a legit torch early in the month, but it was also quiet and dry like 2012-lite.

Been watching, although with the GFS bouncing around so much it's hard to get too excited. Do appreciate your thoughts, Andy.

SPC has put in an area for next Thursday, but it's for the Southern Plains.

Timing looks off for our region on the 06Z GFS. There's some instability but the lead surface low comes through too early, veering the winds, while the main one is still hanging back in the Rockies at 21Z Thursday. Lots of bouncing around to go...something to watch, at least.

Seems like March goes hand in hand with major DFW hailstorms like it does with college hoops.

Tornado probabilities back down to 5% at the 20Z outlook. Frontal undercutting expected to remain a hindrance. However the cell near Mineral Wells, TX is discrete, appears to be deviating a little to the right of other storms and is on a track to threaten the DFW metro, with significant large hail at the very least. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0293.html

Man, the high risk went almost to the IL/WI border. Shoulda chased on 3/5/22, but I thought the surface temperature/moisture were just a tad too marginal to produce substantial tornadoes, let alone a 70-mile-track EF4. Had a decent chase on 3/15/16, caught a glimpse of the Trivoli-Hanna City, IL EF2 but my chase partner and I made a poor navigational decision and lost sight of it in the darkness after that. After 3/12/06, 3/2/12 is the only really huge March outbreak outside of Dixie Alley that I remember.

That's interesting, I associate La Nina with flooding and , particularly late spring of 2008. The last 10 days of May through the first two weeks of June were practically non-stop thunderstorms with multiple tornado outbreaks and major river flooding for much of the Midwest.

As of this morning's 12Z runs, NAM is still a good bit further west with the dryline at 0Z Friday compared to everything else, but I think it's closer than it was.

Yep, definitely watching the upcoming setup with interest. Was hoping we could pull off a Winterset (or even 3/12/06, 3/15/16)-type setup but these troughs are digging into Mexico and spinning up surface lows way too far south, lol.

They've been very cautious with the high risk in recent years, and rightfully so, as the models and the atmosphere haven't really presented a "slam-dunk" high-end severe setup, and the one time they thought it was (5/20/19) they ended up with huge egg on their face due to a subtle inhibiting factor that none of the models picked up on. 3/25/21 was a pretty good use of the high risk (multiple long-track EF3s, although the lone EF4 came after the high risk had been removed from the updated outlook), 3/17/21 it turned out to be a little overblown IMO. Of course 4/27/11 kind of gave a lot of people the wrong idea of what a high risk day should be like. There are plenty of more "classic" verified examples but it's been a while since we had one outside of 3/25/21. 11/10/02, 5/4/03, 5/29/04, 2/5/08, 4/24/10, 5/10/10, 5/24/11, 4/14/12, 4/28/14...