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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    We might barely see any rain out of this at this rate, let alone severe.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    With the activity that is occurring, looks like a possible mesovortex taking shape SE of La Farge, WI.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    20Z HRRR at hour 1 has a lot more, and stronger storms at 21Z than there actually are. Complex really seems to be having trouble filling in to the south of that cluster now east of La Crosse. Discrete cell that tried to get going in north-central Iowa appears to be dying as it approaches Calmar. More capping than expected?
  4. CheeselandSkies
    HRRR kinds of breaks up the complex just after it pushes through Madison and then has a couple of discrete supercells at 02Z. Weird.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    SE MN cluster has an interesting motion, on the radar loop it seems to be surging alternately SE and then almost due E.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    A member on another weather forum reporting issues receiving their confirmation e-mail when trying to join this one: https://talkweather.com/threads/weather-banter.184/page-16#post-77749
  7. CheeselandSkies
    Here we go: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1566.html
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Watch being considered for portions of central/northern IL along the OFB. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1565.html Things seem to be evolving roughly as expected with the MN/Nrn. IA MCS, with no significant trends up or down. Anvil debris from that beginning to push overhead but still seeing filtered sunshine in west Madison at 1917Z. For a threat, would have liked to see that OFB oriented more NW-SE instead of NNW-SSE as it appears to be.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    HRRR keeps bouncing around a bit with the exact timing from run to run, but it seems like somewhere in the 23-01Z timeframe should be rockin' around here. Decision on whether to actually leave the house or "porch chase" pending on storm mode/evolution as things get closer.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    88/71 at Madison with a south wind at noon.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    They're late with the 1630... Edit: Finally out, no moderate.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    One of the most detailed severe weather AFDs I've seen from MKX in quite a while. Of course, also been a while since the core of a potential significant threat was focused over their CWA, with most of them in recent years setting up just to the north/northwest (6/15 and a few others this year) or south (northern Illinois).
  13. CheeselandSkies
    MKX 15:15Z update said there was still some lingering convection over south-central WI, but seen nothing but sunshine out my window since getting up at 15Z. Edit: Looks like things may be a bit ahead of schedule, wasn't expecting to be being considered for a watch (or just outside of the area being considered for a watch) this early. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1563.html
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Looks like today is shaping up to be a potentially significant derecho for parts of MN/IA/WI. @madwx
  15. CheeselandSkies
    Holy shit, the environment on the 12Z NAM which just came into range for Saturday evening. Granted, it's the NAM at the tail end of its range and it doesn't appear to break out any discrete precip in that environment (just a big cluster in WI, presumably a bowing MCS) but I don't believe the model is capable of resolving that, anyway.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    Are you local to southern Wisconsin or coming in from elsewhere in the region?
  17. CheeselandSkies
    Apparently there was a possible tornado near Circleville, OH yesterday? One injury reported due to an RV being flipped. Damage to site-built structures looked low EF1 at most from video I saw.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    I keep seeing that term crop up. My understanding of the phrase "death ridge" among the wx nerd community is that's a ridge in May or June that shuts down chase season prematurely (or basically the pattern seen for the better part of the last six or so springs, although the failure mode isn't always ridging per se). After the summer solstice, it's kind of an expected feature of Plains weather.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    Day 4 outlook contains the entire state of WI. Here's MKX's take: They didn't even mention the Day 4 highlight, probably so as to avoid explicitly disagreeing with SPC, but it's pretty rare to see them implicitly do so anyway.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    Kinda scratching my head at that Day 5 outlook too...GFS has an interesting parameter space for Tuesday but (as usual this year) a very strong cap. MKX doesn't even mention severe for Tuesday in their AFD or HWO.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    Marginal dropped for today, lol.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    SVR just went out for Dodge County.
  23. CheeselandSkies
    850s been torching all year, that's why we've seen so many underachieving severe threats...or so I'm told.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    Wrong month, guys.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    GR Level 3 showing a lot of shear markers with those discrete cells in Green/Rock Counties...however velocities don't look that strong.
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