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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    18Z GFS looks beautiful for Tuesday 3/7...has me at 54 degrees...at midnight. Too bad moisture is very paltry into that surface low tracking through MN. Won't verify, of course. However, it's the first run I recall seeing that actually gets anywhere in Wisconsin above 50 degrees through the end of the run. Lots of "potential" stuff bouncing around in this pattern. Whether any of that potential translates to something interesting and who actually gets the and/or remains to be seen.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    Not too bad here in Madison, at least in my immediate area. A sloppy kitchen sink type of storm, about what we expected. I think there was more ice weighing down the trees following the kitchen sink storm of late February 2017, that happened a few days after it had been in the 60s, and a few days before the 2/28 outbreak. In fact I know there was, because I thought it worthy of taking pictures then. I brought my GoPro to work this morning just in case, but never saw fit to get it out.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    SPC says game on: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0173.html
  4. CheeselandSkies
    2018 had pretty widespread/significant river flooding in southern Wisconsin, although it started later in the summer and continued into spring 2019 in some areas. Then there was 2008...
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Feb SSWE/-NAO combo says hold my beer. Although similar patterns don't always play out in the same fashion.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    Putting out a day 3 marginal risk (5% max for any hazard or 2% for tornado) after a Day 5 and Day 4 15% is SPC's equivalent of waving the white flag.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    I mean...it's plausible that much snow will fall in that timeframe, but it will melt off between each storm. a @beavis1729 nightmare
  8. CheeselandSkies
    There was one ice storm I remember from the vaunted winter of 2013-'14 where I came out to leave for work one night (3AM start) and found my car completely encased in about 1/4" of solid ice. That was a fun nearly half hour of chipping and scraping. Still waiting to top that, now that I live at an apartment complex with indoor parking.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    Is it even possible to get a low-level hodo like that in a warm sector with CAPE? Where the wind goes from ENE at the surface to SW at 1KM? And those SRH numbers...
  10. CheeselandSkies
  11. CheeselandSkies
    Been waiting it out, gonna have to drive home to the west side from downtown (wife is in Meriter Hospital for the second time in two months) in about half an hour. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  12. CheeselandSkies
    Indeed. Although Winterset last year reminded me not to sleep on severe threats in early March at 40N, even with dewpoints barely touching the mid-50s.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    The ideal weenie result of all that would be a pattern with lots of baroclinic instability battling it out over the central CONUS with plenty of and . Now who exactly cashes in on each is the question.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Can someone translate for those of us who don't fully understand MJO progression charts and what this one means for sensible wx in this region? TIA. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  15. CheeselandSkies
    Is it ready2Bburied or lockoftheweek12345?
  16. CheeselandSkies
    14 cars of vinyl chloride derailed, along with six more containing other potentially hazardous materials. Nasty for the residents of the immediate area, definitely needs close environmental monitoring of the air and water for them. You'll be fine in Maryland. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ohio_train_derailment
  17. CheeselandSkies
    In other words, the ushe.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Models took a dump on this as they usually do with any high-end looking severe or winter wx setup inside of 7-8 days, even if they were consistent/in agreement with it outside of that range. That said there will still be some severe weather Wednesday and Thursday, but no longer looking like anything exceptional.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    Surprising to me how down to the wire 2011-'12 was in terms of just sneaking into the below 20" list. It's the only one in my adult life that really stands out in my memory as an effectively snowless winter. Of course as we've seen, with so many events having sharp cutoffs in totals, even in a generally unproductive winter for the entire region, the perception of the season for someone in, say, Madison can be dramatically different compared to someone in Chicago.
  20. CheeselandSkies
  21. CheeselandSkies
    Followed by a kitchen sink winter storm, followed by a outbreak. Fun times indeed.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    Could be a nasty kitchen sink storm for someone.
  23. CheeselandSkies
    Are you referring to @hardypalmguy? Why do you call him "cromartie"?
  24. CheeselandSkies
    Yeah...at the time I posted that Cassville was supposed to be right in the heart of the area that got the high-rate burst, but they ended up on the wrong side of the cutoff.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    Next time I go to my parent's house I'll have to dig up the tape (and a working VHS VCR to play it into my computer capture card), I know I have some home video from late February 2002 (I'd just turned 16 at the time) when it got up to around, perhaps over 60 degrees in southern Wisconsin. As I recall, we went into it with a solid snowpack on the ground, so in the video you can hear what sounds like a waterfall from all the rapidly melting snow as I zoom in on our garden thermometer.
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