CheeselandSkies

SPC being appallingly behind with the SWODY1 again.

Green County, WI warned for a hailer. 50 MPH storm motion.

If nothing else, Radarscope shows prolific lightning occurring along roughly a Reedsburg-La Crosse corridor. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

To the extent that any CAM wasn't awful with today, HRRR portrayed something like this with every other run or so.

13Z HRRR run put a supercell practically right over my house. 14Z goes back to snoozer for WI/IL/most of IN, with MI/OH/extreme NE IN action not getting going until late.

This sub is weird because different parts of it can experience the same season so differently. I remember 2012 as the most boring and stormless summer of my adult life; all those derechos went south/southeast of here. I've experienced a lot more thunderstorms this year than I had by this point in 2021 (although chasing is a part of that, since I drove to some storms I wouldn't have experienced at home), while others like @hardypalmguy are still getting the shaft.

Stuff in NE IA/SE MN may get a boost from daytime heating before it comes through here, although it'll still be a few hours earlier than ideal and indications still are it will remain to the cool side of the warm front.

Sun back out in Madison after some overcast in the 7:30-8:30 AM timeframe. Edit: 12Z HRRR essentially lost the bow echo again...what a joke.

I actually ran the heat in my wife's car on my way in to work this morning.

HRRR with a whiff north for MBY...which is OK since I'll be trying to get my semi-crippled car to a place where it can be worked on. It also implies that the very volatile surface-based/ environment along/south of the warm front will remain untapped. The bowing MCS for tomorrow PM is also virtually nonexistent on the 18Z 3KM NAM, which is shocking because I've always observed that model to blow up gigantic convective complexes at the slightest provocation. Edit: It has one large complex in east-central IL into IN, and another in Iowa at 14Z, so those probably work over the environment for the would-be later activity according to the model's scenario.

Looks like MBY got moved a little more solidly into the 5% tor area. Of course when my car is out of commission. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

GFS steadily coming down with EHI values for next week as the "event" draws closer. The trough and associated dynamics lift NE around the ridge of juicy tropical air instead of overspreading it and popping the lid off. Typical. Will still probably be some storms somewhere but not optimistic about the prospects of a good chase.

Reading between the lines of this MCD, it sounds like a potentially more significant event than implied by the 5%/slight risk may be brewing over portions of the OH Valley. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1089.html

Not ready for the "short range" thread yet, but GFS has been pretty consist with keying in on some sort of severe threat in parts of the sub next Tuesday-Wednesday. Some pretty impressive soundings in WI on some runs, but as usual they're irritatingly close to being up in the woods and/or the nigh-unchaseable Driftless Area/Wisconsin River valley.

Madison is kind of on a "tongue" extending eastward from that large area of precip crawling out of Iowa. Been raining steadily for over an hour while many locations in southern Wisconsin have been dry so far today. Radarscope shows quite a bit of lightning approaching the I-380 corridor. @hawkeye_wx Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Yeesh. This has me in the up to 1.5" BA category, with portions of the county in the -1.5-3" range. Yet my perception is that this has been a relatively wet May, at least compared to the last couple. @madwx

I think some of those wind reports will be changed to tornadoes once surveyed, but it was a toss-up going in if there were actually going to be any large, cyclic, intense tornado family-producing supercells (as of Friday/Saturday the setup was drawing comparisons to 6/17/2010, but that was quickly tempered by storm mode doubts). I made a last-minute decision not to chase when I was pretty sure the storm mode would suck, not to mention racing speeds into bad terrain. Witness the number of chasers who came up from the Plains for Monday, but like @Quincy went back the way they came morning of.

Indeed...but it's still spring.

@madwx 00Z HRRR for our BY Tuesday... Edit: HRW-FV3 as well although they don't call it the "supercell printer" for nothing:

Yep, planning to chase closer to home Tuesday after tomorrow's Minnesota mess...where exactly remains to be seen. Not going to the 30 hatch in Misery even if I had Wednesday off as well and gas wasn't $4.30/gal even here in relatively low Wisconsin.

Thunderstorms rolling in here, pretty sure I looked at my NWS point yesterday and it had partly sunny with no PoP.

It seems to me like NOAA's work overall has gone downhill over the course of the last ~10 years but accelerated over the last 5. Does this fit with your observations or do you think it runs longer than that? Is it over-reliance on modern high-res NWP (things like the HRRR and such are good tools, but even they miss a lot of stuff and/or forecast storms that don't happen, even at very short range like 5/20/19)? Is it politically motivated disinvestment/a shift toward the private sector leading the weather enterprise? Some combination thereof?

I feel like the CPC outlooks posted just a few days ago or so were showing the complete opposite. Edit: Found 'em on ST Discord, yep, the one issued 5/22 was showing AA temps and precip for the Midwest 5/30-6/5.

Kinda interesting that MKX can completely ignore a 3KM EHI >7 with 1KM SRH approaching 400 m2/s2 over portions of their CWA 54 hours out (on the 18Z NAM), even if there is the likelihood of strong capping. I feel like that office (my local one, so I read them the most) used to be staffed by severe geeks who would do very detailed discussions, but most of them have retired and now they just kind of gloss over threats (although granted, it has been quite a few years since we had a real high-ceiling one that actually materialized, so maybe they've just given up).

So far, NAM forecast soundings for Monday show the same issue as Sunday...rock solid capping due to very warm and dry at 850mb...kind of ridiculous that we are having this issue even along/east of the Mississippi when normally our problem in the spring is that we can't get a proper Plains-style EML/dryline this far northeast. Edit: On second look, today's 12Z NAM is showing a few areas where the cap may potentially break Sunday evening. Still need to keep an eye on it.