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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    This almost looks tornado-warning worthy, despite extremely marginal setup. Apparently there was a report of a funnel cloud with possible brief touchdown earlier in southeast MN.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    Andrew really was unusual in many respects. Because it was the most recent major hurricane landfall (to a lesser extent accompanied by Hugo) when I was a young budding weather geek in the early-mid '90s with all the Weather Channel specials, books and magazine articles focusing on it, I grew up thinking of it as the quintessential hurricane and that all major hurricanes were like a couple hour long tornado; of course I now know that's not the case.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    Really interesting to see the model track output from 0Z 8/22/92; and that the majority of guidance did take the storm west toward Florida (although too far north, GFDL was the most accurate on direction for that run but much too slow) but there was a cluster of three models with an almost immediate sharp recurve OTS. AVN was closest on timing but much too far north, showing landfall near Port St. Lucie.
  4. CheeselandSkies
    The real headscratcher now is that this year isn't really behaving like any of the previous third-year Nina analogs, either. July through first 10 days of August, I'll give you, but all of them had substantially more activity by this point in time.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Irma was on the verge of being that one long-tracker that makes it to a CONUS landfall as a 130kt+ beast...then the ridge verified stronger than expected and pushed it into Cuba. Hugo was pretty close, although IIRC it was about 115-120kt at SC landfall (sources seem to differ). Some of the advisory forecast points for Florence IIRC put it inland with at least 120kt winds, but then it stalled out approaching the coast.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    The yellow shaded zone indicating potential "low-probability" (30% or less) areas for tropical cyclogenesis on NHC's 5-day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Medium-probability (40%-60%) is shaded orange ("orange" or "mandarin") and high-probability (70% or more) is red ("cherry") as alluded to by @AnthonyEC above.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    Weenie run for the ages right there. Been a while since one of those.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    The trendy thing this season seems to be to throw out the ensembles unless the OPs are on board, when it always used to be vice versa. Seen it here and on S2K, quite possibly the same people.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    How's that 0/0/0 August looking, @ldub23?
  10. CheeselandSkies
    Surprise marginal risk with 5/5/2 probs. Wasn't even really expecting rain today. Forecasts issued yesterday were like "Partly sunny with a 20% chance of showers," well, that 20% just hit here. HRRR soundings for this evening look somewhat interesting in the state line region, but it doesn't really break out any supercells. I'll be in the area anyway since I was planning on heading to Illinois Railway Museum for Diesel Days today.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    Not really medium range yet and probably a mirage (August isn't known for it's high-predictability long range severe weather regimes) but SPC gives some hope, although I know @Chicago Storm is not a believer.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    Three of the five Augusts going back to 2018 have been perhaps the most notable month of the warm season locally for severe and/or flooding, whether it be for a singular event (2020 derecho) or sustained activity levels over at least 1-2 weeks of the month. It appears this one won't be joining them, other than the headfake toward a significant flash flood event last weekend.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    Current state of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season:
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Yawn. Latest from MKX:
  15. CheeselandSkies
    Yeah, this was kind of sneaky.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    Surprise slight risk upgrade and severe thunderstorm warning here. Not much impact in MBY, though...but it was pretty.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    I'm guessing Powerball assumed that was tied to -NAO, as it usually seems to be a feature of such.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Kinda tame for a -ENSO/-PDO spring/summer. I thought the table was set to deliver big time heat and/or severe (think 1995, 2008) but the atmosphere couldn't quite pull it off despite several opportunities; each setup had something screw it up.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    Storms firing up in SE MN/NE IA rolling east overnight. Severe weather not expected, but could get a nice light show when I'm heading in to work (or just get drenched) depending on timing.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    Finally got around to editing and uploading my video from my local storm chase on the 4th:
  21. CheeselandSkies
    Go00fus at 384...nice.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    Second round which rolled through around 2 AM was much more vigorous than the first; best middle-of-the-night lightning/thunder show I've had in a few years. Quite a few more wind reports around southern WI than with the first round, too.
  23. CheeselandSkies
    Tornado warning with that, although it was just cancelled. A couple of funnel cloud reports earlier, but velocities never looked that impressive.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    Well, HRRR was partially right, with a southeast-moving supercell splitting off from the tail end of the complex and moving through Rock/Walworth Counties around this time. It doesn't seem to be able to ingest enough unstable surface-based inflow for a threat, though.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    Well, storms did fill in a bit and start to push south of due east across Dane County. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
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