CheeselandSkies

06Z 3K NAM seems to have a little better handle on the current IL stuff (although I think still weaker with it than reality) than the HRRR, and it fires discrete sups in southwestern WI by 22Z. Not sure why SPC would introduce a 2% region at 1730Z yesterday, only to remove it with the first SWODY1 today.

Did not expect the severe storms in Illinois overnight. Thought if we were going to get anything tonight it would be the northern WI complex diving south.

Dunno if I ever recall seeing 500mb heights exceed 600 dam before, even on a GFS fantasy range forecast. Usually the highest I see is 594.

Batten down the palms.

Nothing like a 4/26/91 analog over your house in Wisconsin...in late July. Convective mode likely won't allow for something like that, but wow.

No heatwave bust there!

They introduced a 2% in the 1730Z update. MS River at WI/IL line to western third of Lake Erie. Depending on MCV placement/timing, I could see tomorrow becoming one of those sneaky summer sig events for somewhere in our region. Given the forecast heat, LCL could become an issue, but dewpoints should be in the 70s. This could be a case where a little cloud cover might actually help if you're looking for a chase.

In addition to that, the 12Z HRRR fires storms in southern WI Friday afternoon/evening, which last night's 00Z (first run to be in range) wasn't doing.

Kind of surprised SPC couldn't at least muster a 2% prob zone on the Day 2, given >100j/kg 3CAPE and 250-350 m2/s2 inflow layer SRH on NAM forecast soundings for 00Z Saturday, unless they're totally disbelieving the model; or don't believe storms will form in that environment.

18Z NAM at FH054 remains quite interesting for Friday evening at FH054 with very strong low-level curvature in the forecast hodographs, a modest/breakable cap, and >5,000 j/kg MLCAPE in parts of S WI/N IL. The surface chart appears to depict the reason for these enhanced hodographs as a sort of secondary surface low near the MS river, out ahead of the main one which it depicts over the IA/NE border.

Would be tempting but it's even more in the heart of the metro than 7/12 was. Got lucky to glimpse the Plato/Elgin twins just before they moved into the zone of solid urban cul-de-sacs/trees/traffic. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1730.html

Overachieved a bit this morning with I think three rounds of severe-warned cells moving through southern Wisconsin. Shouldn't have been a surprise, really. SPC would have done well to leave the slight risk they introduced with the first Day 2 yesterday in place, or at least leave the entire area in a marginal instead of just the eastern half. Several reports of wind damage, especially in Rock County. Not all of them have made the LSRs on SPC's page, yet.

Was about to post on this but then got super busy at work (live severe wx cut-ins among other things). Interesting tension among first whiff CAM solutions...3K NAM has a rather volatile environment over S WI/N IL at 00Z Friday Saturday, but no convection. FV3 meanwhile has a huge derecho blowing through.

Ah. That was a classic Lieowa day. I was chasing out there in the 15% hatched / double-digit STP bullseye, but it blew up into an insta-squall.

Southern WI removed from the slight risk on the updated Day 2. Lame, but could see it coming based on the model trends. Amazing how literally everything this year has skipped us, except for 3/31 when I was in Iowa going after the bigger fish ( ). Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

That *is* a pretty powerhouse system being depicted on the NAM. Not too often you see tornado-favorable soundings valid for 15Z (10 AM) in this neck of the woods.

Need that system to either slow down or speed up by 12 hours.

Yeah. They said it was mostly gonna stay aloft... I didn't check a whole lot, but I didn't see an AQI number on my phone today like I did for several consecutive days during the really bad smoke outbreak almost a month ago. Edit: There is one on there; just saw it tick from 160 to 161.

Yes it's the tail end of its range but the latest NAM for Thursday evening is...interesting. GFS has hints of the same general system for at least the last couple of runs. Of course the crucial details of the convective environment are gonna be all over the place at this range/at this time of year.

Lucky you.

Fairly p***ing rain on the southwest side now. Airport might not see much if anything out of this.

Nice little rumbler rolling through right now.

Not really. The couple of days in late June it was thick enough for me to smell on the ground here it smelled like burnt plastic, not like a campfire at all.

Here's another frame grab from about 30 seconds later, at Silver Glen Rd. & Denker Rd. The closer/southern twin had appeared to lift (at least in terms of the condensation funnel) but those cloud tendrils were still spinning wildly. Meanwhile it's probably my best glimpse of the Plato Center-Elgin EF1 toward the left. Two concurrent cyclonic tornadoes from distinct mesocyclones in such close proximity, one of those things that seems to defy the laws of physics (except, Pilger happened). That's the amount of low-level shear that was present over the Chicago metro on Wednesday.

Literally slept through the southern Wisconsin tornado warning...we weren't even in a marginal risk until the 01Z outlook.