CheeselandSkies

I consider anything the climate science-denying Bustardi spews into Rancid Musk's Twatterverse to be of entertainment value only.

More ice than I expected in the Madison area (forecasts had it more northwest of here in Sauk/Juneau/Adams/Monroe Counties) with tonight's freezing rain, had to chip off my car a bit although fortunately it was not solidly frozen and didn't require too much effort.

That would be Jonesboro, Louisiana. Cell moving up towards the I-20 corridor.

Baby steps... but general thunder line was expanded to include much more of the sub on the updated Day 2 outlook. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Was not expecting THIS during this "torch"... Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Caveat to the above: As it gets into NAM range, the model is slowing things down a bit and showing the front coming through IN/southern LM/western OH closer to peak heating Tuesday, with a modest amount of CAPE within that large area of upper 50s dewpoints out ahead of it. Even has a little bit of moisture being pulled back into the triple point along the WI/IL border. Don't have high expectations at the moment, but something for us severe trackers to keep an eye on.

From the current model projections of very paltry CAPE despite quite high dewpoints for the season, it's hard to see early next week's event threatening much of this sub; but IIRC it took them until pretty late in the game to pick up on the northern extent of days like 2/28/17 or 12/10/21, as well.

SPC has maintained a pretty large 15% zone valid for Monday 1/2 for the last two outlooks. They haven't seen enough model consistency/agreement for anything further. Reminder that this thread is for those of us who want to discuss convective weather/threats. There are other threads to complain about lack of sufficiently wintry conditions/lament snow opportunities lost. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

CA desperately needs precip, so of course it will come all at once. Thanks, atmosphere! Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

The old climatology adage "averages are merely a mean of extremes" seems to get truer every year. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

May not be wintry to some people's liking but it won't be quiet.

So is the upcoming torch the elephant in the room that no one's going to talk about? I can see some concerns for flooding assuming streams/reservoirs/ponds etc got hard frozen over the last few days; then snow melt (in those areas that actually have a substantial amount on the ground) combined with rain upcoming.

Village of Cassville, WI (Far SW corner of the state, on the MS River) live webcam:

Wednesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Wednesday Night A chance of rain, snow, and freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. CAD life...

Good God, I hope not. 2021 was close to that. Bone dry early to mid spring, many warm and sunny but windy days with blowing dust/dirt.

True.

Great, now WEAs are gonna become meaningless to most people. I was skeptical when they used them (at least here in WI) to announce the state COVID-19 lockdown in March of 2020. The virus is invisible and the risk of infection ever-present every time you interact with another person for the foreseeable future. I think they're much more appropriate for short-fuse threats of physical harm that you take cover from and then go about your business once it's over. Tornado warnings, flash flood warnings, gas leak, mass shooter on the loose, zombie apocalypse, etc.

I've had a few good ones in recent years (not counting the ones that I actually chase, when I usually miss the tornado by my own screw-up), but they're usually not on the days when you're expecting them.

Not seeing anything from the 8th floor of Meriter Hospital. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Who broke the major global models (esp. the EURO) and when, why and how? They're getting worse with each "upgrade."

It's in the basement at Mar-a-Lago in a box marked "classified."

MKX has been forced to go with the dreaded "Winter storm watch to WWA" about-face for the actual snowfall portion of this event in their CWA, tonight through tomorrow. They mention still being concerned about potential for ground blizzard conditions later tomorrow into Friday but have held off the blizzard warning, even though they are up to our west in Iowa.

With the excitement for the upcoming event abating somewhat, might be a good time to reminisce on the not-too-distant past. The couple of wet & heavy thumps (I wonder if those might have been less than 10:1) in the early part of the month combined with a misty fog resulted in decent conditions for shooting the daylight run of the Canadian Pacific Holiday Train through southern Wisconsin on Saturday the 10th. Of course, the full effect comes after dark, and is best conveyed with video:

GFS has QC area touching 50 on 12/29. Been consistent with that almost since it came into range, too. Could be consistently wrong...

Are you on-air or behind the scenes? I work behind the scenes on the morning show at a local station here in Madison.