CheeselandSkies

18Z GFS with the casual 2MB/hr pressure drops continuing for 24 hours straight.

12Z GFS down to 960 MB, deepening on approach. IMO surge risk to Big Bend is higher with this storm than any for a long time. The coast is sparsely populated, but if this does come in as a strong major and causes a swath of intense wind damage deep inland, as others pointed out it's all mobile homes and RV parks in there.

HAFS-A is at 956 MB just offshore, at FH078. Next frame, at FH081, is at 954 MB well inland.

Special Message from NHC Issued 26 Aug 2023 20:16 UTC NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Ten, located near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC).

If the latest HWRF verifies (again, not saying this is the most likely solution); western Cuba is in for a solid hurricane in less than 48 hours. Then after that... Looks like last night's 0Z run was a glitch in the matrix for the famously bullish hurricane model. Both 12Z HAFS also go nuts.

I wouldn't call it likely at this point but would be foolish to take anything off the table at this juncture.

00Z HWRF is gonna be fun...985 MB already at FH054. Edit: Maybe not. Seems to be struggling with shear or something and still hovering in the 980s by midday Tuesday. I'm off to bed.

Both are much further west (central to western Panhandle) and not as strong, but B would be a solid Cat. 1 and A a mid Cat. 2 at least with 967 MB just after landfall at FH111. Like HWRF that's also a large pressure drop in the 3 hours before landfall.

IIRC Ida of 2021 was the one that was pretty well pegged as a dangerous Gulf major even as an invest. With Ian there was some initial thought that it would get left behind and limp into the Big Bend as an unraveling TS/minimal Cat. 1 at most. The intensity of Michael was very much a sneak attack. The lesson here again is "never count out a northward-moving Gulf storm with boiling waters in its path because it's too early to tell whether it will be destructively sheared or not."

Even has it down to 959MB right on the coast at FH111...too bad there's not a sim IR frame for that FH.

Somebody gets it.

Special Marine Warnings out for the entirety of Lake Erie for winds and potential waterspouts.

Looks like there's a number of other trailer parks and housing developments of likely suspect construction quality along I-96 between Webberville and Fowlerville.

Hope it didn't hit this place: https://goo.gl/maps/oqEJKbukDMSav2eB6

Tornado could be heading for Howell if it stays down (they're in the polygon). @Jonger

They just went to "large and extremely dangerous" PDS wording. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 937 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023 The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Livingston County in southeastern Michigan... * Until 1015 PM EDT. * At 937 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Williamston, or near Fowlerville, moving east at 40 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * The tornado will be near... Fowlerville around 945 PM EDT. Howell and Oak Grove around 955 PM EDT. Brighton around 1010 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Parkers Corners, Conway Township and Deerfield Township. This includes the following highways... I-96 between mile markers 125 and 146. US-23 near mile marker 60. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4276 8402 4276 8377 4253 8375 4257 8414 4275 8416 TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 277DEG 35KT 4266 8419 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ KDK

Yikes.

This outflow boundary seems to have stalled about 2 miles east of me, lol. Still feels like a sauna out there. Again, much closer than I expected but still not a drop for Madison.

Speaking of which, possible TDS near Northview, MI. I can't attach both images but it is (or was, as of this scan) colocated with an apparent couplet on velocity.

That storm out east had legit supercell structure on radar for a while, even a distinct velocity couplet as it moved out over the lake just north of Kenosha. SMW for waterspouts was put out for it, even though no tornado warning over land.

Wasn't expecting it to be this close. Outflow bout to knock the heat down a peg or three.

Should be fun to watch on radar. If only this pattern could have set up six weeks ago and stuck around a while, giving everyone in the sub a chance to be in line for some dome riders. #1995ing.

Riding the edge of SPC's marginal here but even the nest keeps us dry.